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BYND - Beyond Meat


Castanza

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Whenever I go to Costco I grab a box of the Morningstar Chipotle Bean Burgers. Very good, probably better than the Beyond Meat product or the Impossible Burger which I do like. Nevertheless I also still eat regular burgers, and it isn't taking share of anything for me other than perhaps one lunch meal a week.

 

Key question, why isn't Kellog stock going bananas?

 

Greg, that is a simple yet important insight about Kellogg. However, I think part of the difference lies in the marketing of the product. Yes, Beyond Meat is marketed as a healthy alternative to meat. But I think the core of their marketing is on the sustainability of the product. I rarely see the company discussed without the sustainability and environmental aspects being mentioned. I think this really "sells" it to the millennial and younger generations. I think people have a bit of an irrational fear when it comes to sustainability. For some reason everyone thinks eating meat is killing the world. I won't disregard the harmful nature of industrial farming (some aspects) as there are some things that need to be changed. It seems that any company who markets themselves on the "wave of green" translates well with the younger generations. Long story short, it's way over valued, isn't as good (healthy or taste wise) as everyone says and is simply surfing the green wave. Every wave meets the shore eventually.

 

Also Kellogg is one of those big evil conglomerate corporations that millennials love to hate.  :P

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Beyond Meat is pure play and Kellogg's bean burger probably doesn't move the needle much

 

My remark was largely sarcastic. In terms of EV, Kellogg is about 28B, while BYND is just under $10B.  Morningstar Farms certainly isn't valued properly!(again sarcasm).

 

My gist; this is the definition of a fad. 100%. Has nothing to do with the market being in a bubble or anything else. The key for these companies is to follow the Sodastream model. Hoard as much cash as possible during your fad years, and then hope to reposition the business in as strong a position as possible once things normalize. Most fads piss away their money in good times, and then lose money when the boom is over(SCTY). I dont see this as being much different. FIZZ is another one.

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I had a Beyond burger this weekend.  Thought it was somewhat similar to a beef burger, but overall didn't think it was anywhere near as good as the hype surrounding it.  I honestly can't say I would choose it over any of the dozens of other veggie burgers out there.

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I had a Beyond burger this weekend.  Thought it was somewhat similar to a beef burger, but overall didn't think it was anywhere near as good as the hype surrounding it.  I honestly can't say I would choose it over any of the dozens of other veggie burgers out there.

 

Expectations matter a lot with all subjective experiences (watching a movie, listening to an album, tasting a wine or scotch, etc).

 

I think that the hype and high expectations are doing a disservice to the company, though I'm not sure what they can do about it.

 

I tried a Beyond Meat burger from A&W a few weeks ago with pretty neutral expectations (maybe slightly on the high side), and I liked it. I thought it wasn't quite as good as the regular burger which I had side-by-side, but it's was tasty, and would probably have gone over even better without the direct comparison.

 

These things will keep getting better, and the end state is artificial meat that will be as good and eventually better (all cloned from the very best AAAA grass-fed Kobe beef but with Omega 3... healthier, and more ethical, and better for the environment (turning feedstock into meat isn't that efficient through an animal)) than the factory-farmed meat. Question is how long until we get there?

 

I like that this company is getting all the attention. Hopefully it attracts more competitors and smart people and capital to the field so that this transition happens faster.

 

Like Tesla, no interest in it as an investment, but I find the technology/product very interesting, especially where it's going rather than where it is.

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I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

How did you get a 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda for $4.79? 

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I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

How did you get a 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda for $4.79?

 

To be fair, they are sliders, so its probably equivalent to maybe 4 real burgers. But the secret sauce... Shoprite manager's specials. Typically stuff that's expiration date is within 48 hours. These are normally $6.99. Buy yourself a deep freezer, and take advantage of near term expirations and holidays. Value investor lifestyle lol. You should have seen my wife's face when I came home with 15 3-4lb slabs of corned beef a day after St. Patty's Day. $1.49 a pound for meat thats typically $6-$8 per lb. My son loves hot dogs... 4th of July sales I'll probably buy a dozen packs of Sabretts for $2 per that normally run $5.49 each.

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I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

To be fair, I don't think they claim to be the cheapest option. Not really their value proposition. Kind of like free range chicken isn't about being cheapest, but about not wanting to encourage certain practices.

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I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

How did you get a 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda for $4.79?

 

To be fair, they are sliders, so its probably equivalent to maybe 4 real burgers. But the secret sauce... Shoprite manager's specials. Typically stuff that's expiration date is within 48 hours. These are normally $6.99. Buy yourself a deep freezer, and take advantage of near term expirations and holidays. Value investor lifestyle lol. You should have seen my wife's face when I came home with 15 3-4lb slabs of corned beef a day after St. Patty's Day. $1.49 a pound for meat thats typically $6-$8 per lb. My son loves hot dogs... 4th of July sales I'll probably buy a dozen packs of Sabretts for $2 per that normally run $5.49 each.

 

Greg,

 

That's amateur stuff, have you ever bought 10 pounds of mussels just trucked in from PEI for $11?  Or a five pound box of portabello mushrooms for $9.99?  The freshest stuff you can get.  It makes Costco shopping look like chumps.   

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I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

How did you get a 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda for $4.79?

 

To be fair, they are sliders, so its probably equivalent to maybe 4 real burgers. But the secret sauce... Shoprite manager's specials. Typically stuff that's expiration date is within 48 hours. These are normally $6.99. Buy yourself a deep freezer, and take advantage of near term expirations and holidays. Value investor lifestyle lol. You should have seen my wife's face when I came home with 15 3-4lb slabs of corned beef a day after St. Patty's Day. $1.49 a pound for meat thats typically $6-$8 per lb. My son loves hot dogs... 4th of July sales I'll probably buy a dozen packs of Sabretts for $2 per that normally run $5.49 each.

 

Greg,

 

That's amateur stuff, have you ever bought 10 pounds of mussels just trucked in from PEI for $11?  Or a five pound box of portabello mushrooms for $9.99?  The freshest stuff you can get.  It makes Costco shopping look like chumps. 

 

As a seafood junky, that sounds amazing. I'd need another deep freezer for sure!

 

Also just reminded me of another nice get around. Need a quick getaway? Take an hour and a half flight to Bermuda with the wife for the weekend. There each of you can purchase 2 bottles of anything your want(and bring home with you) at the duty free. Last time I snagged a 1L(not the 750ml they typically sell here) at Glenlivet 18 for $79 and a Jamieson 18 year limited reserve for $75. You can also get some Cuban cigars for dirt. Although I am not sure if it's legal to bring those back. When I went it wasn't but all you have to do is buy a box of $5 garbage and sub them out and you're good.

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What are you doing on a site called "GMO Science" that has this at the bottom of its pages "1 of the key factors fuelling the epidemic of autism & ADHD in children is epigenetics; the effects of toxic exposures of previous generations on their offspring. Glyphosate has also been shown to cause epigenetic effects" ?

 

If this site says it's unhealthy, that makes it more likely to be healthy, all else equal, IMO.

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I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

Beef will be the better value until volumes pick up.  I can tell you for a fact that Beyond Meat burgers are selling like hotcakes here in Vancouver.  While I love burgers, I have switched over to the Beyond Meat burgers so that I can satisfy my burger cravings in a healthier way.  I also buy them at the grocery store.  Whether that makes Beyond Meat a good investment is anyone's guess, but they are selling and the demand is not decreasing any time soon.  In fact, I would imagine the growth rate will be very healthy for the next 10-15 years as they develop other products like meatballs, sausages, ground meat, etc.  Cheers!

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I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

Beef will be the better value until volumes pick up.  I can tell you for a fact that Beyond Meat burgers are selling like hotcakes here in Vancouver.  While I love burgers, I have switched over to the Beyond Meat burgers so that I can satisfy my burger cravings in a healthier way.  I also buy them at the grocery store.  Whether that makes Beyond Meat a good investment is anyone's guess, but they are selling and the demand is not decreasing any time soon.  In fact, I would imagine the growth rate will be very healthy for the next 10-15 years as they develop other products like meatballs, sausages, ground meat, etc.  Cheers!

 

It's not healthier, it's processed crap. If you want healthier, then eat some grass-fed meat and avoid any sugary drinks and french fries. Eat meat for meat and unprocessed vegetables for vegetables.

 

No one can see 10-15 years in this industry.  With this pop and buzz, there will be 100 other options or more in the next 10 years, some will be far better.  What moat do they have exactly to last them 10 years? This schtick is going to crash within a year.

 

 

 

 

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I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

Beef will be the better value until volumes pick up.  I can tell you for a fact that Beyond Meat burgers are selling like hotcakes here in Vancouver.  While I love burgers, I have switched over to the Beyond Meat burgers so that I can satisfy my burger cravings in a healthier way.  I also buy them at the grocery store.  Whether that makes Beyond Meat a good investment is anyone's guess, but they are selling and the demand is not decreasing any time soon.  In fact, I would imagine the growth rate will be very healthy for the next 10-15 years as they develop other products like meatballs, sausages, ground meat, etc.  Cheers!

 

It's not healthier, it's processed crap. If you want healthier, then eat some grass-fed meat and avoid any sugary drinks and french fries. Eat meat for meat and unprocessed vegetables for vegetables.

 

No one can see 10-15 years in this industry.  With this pop and buzz, there will be 100 other options or more in the next 10 years, some will be far better.  What moat do they have exactly to last them 10 years? This schtick is going to crash within a year.

 

That's what they said about Soda Stream...which I thought like you would bust.  I'm pretty sure we all thought the same about Whole Foods.  There are a lot of things that succeed that I really thought would not...I thought rap music was a fad!  Cheers!

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I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

Beef will be the better value until volumes pick up.  I can tell you for a fact that Beyond Meat burgers are selling like hotcakes here in Vancouver.  While I love burgers, I have switched over to the Beyond Meat burgers so that I can satisfy my burger cravings in a healthier way.  I also buy them at the grocery store.  Whether that makes Beyond Meat a good investment is anyone's guess, but they are selling and the demand is not decreasing any time soon.  In fact, I would imagine the growth rate will be very healthy for the next 10-15 years as they develop other products like meatballs, sausages, ground meat, etc.  Cheers!

 

It's not healthier, it's processed crap. If you want healthier, then eat some grass-fed meat and avoid any sugary drinks and french fries. Eat meat for meat and unprocessed vegetables for vegetables.

 

No one can see 10-15 years in this industry.  With this pop and buzz, there will be 100 other options or more in the next 10 years, some will be far better.  What moat do they have exactly to last them 10 years? This schtick is going to crash within a year.

 

That's what they said about Soda Stream...which I thought like you would bust.  I'm pretty sure we all thought the same about Whole Foods.  There are a lot of things that succeed that I really thought would not...I thought rap music was a fad!  Cheers!

 

If I'm wrong I'll cook you a healthy dinner! (and eat it myself, because you're kinda far, but I'll repent my folly while repeating "Sanjeev was right!" between bites).

 

You make a great point about Soda Stream and such.  To add an example to your argument: Skechers. At the time that everyone thought they had a fad (2010?), those ugly, ugly shoes were indeed a fad but qualitatively management had a fantastic track record and it was pretty standard for the industry to miss occasionally, so there was a strong thesis they would get out of it.  Is there anything similar with BYND?

 

The meat replacement trend is obviously very strong, but how can you bet on one company at this point? You can get the trend right but miss the company.

 

Within a year they crash #timestamp

 

 

 

 

 

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