coc Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Hi gang. Does anyone here own or follow Ryanair? I am doing some work to understand the business and I’m curious if smarter minds have positive or negative thoughts - thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Owned it before. Fantastic business and been watching it lately. Seems cheap again, but think it has above avg capex coming up. Currently own ALGT and like it better. RYA seems a good one to look at now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrispy Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Scuttleblurb has in depth write-ups on Ryan and wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coc Posted June 27, 2019 Author Share Posted June 27, 2019 Scuttleblurb has in depth write-ups on Ryan and wiz Thanks - I did read his piece on Ryanair - a good short overview. Owned it before. Fantastic business and been watching it lately. Seems cheap again, but think it has above avg capex coming up. Currently own ALGT and like it better. RYA seems a good one to look at now though. They do have what O'Leary has called peak capex coming this year, and 200 planes coming in by 2024 - agreed. What makes you like ALGT better? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Looks interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 some "clickbaits" and "true story: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/05/20/ryanair-ceo-michael-oleary-earnings-boeings-oil-squawk-box.html they are buying back shares: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/news-analysis.html?fourWayKey=IE00BYTBXV33IEEURSSMU recently about 100K per day, but yesterday it was 700K, which, if i am not mistaken, is more than 40 per cent of total volume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coc Posted August 16, 2019 Author Share Posted August 16, 2019 Yes RYAAY is authorized to buy in 700M EUR worth of shares through next summer - at these prices they should be able to get 75-80M shares. They will be down more than a third from when they began the program a few years back. Note they have also paid three large special dividends in the past decade as well. Right now the market hates airlines in general. IAG is even cheaper than RYAAY. The Max delays hurt temporarily (RYAAY is probably the largest single buyer) and its pilot unions are agitating. So it’s pretty well hated and today came the inevitable downgrades. We shall see how O’Leary manages through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 RYAAY is down even further than after the June 2016 Brexit vote. Interesting comments from Leary about consolidation and airlines closings coming in winter 2019. He pegs Norwegian as one to close. Says by 2024 there will likely be four major airline groups - RyanAir, IAG, Lufthansa, and Air France/KLM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 From 2017: https://www.scuttleblurb.com/ryanair/ So it was 16x trailing earnings at ~20 per cent margins and now it is at 11-12x at 11 per cent margins. Even if these margins are "new normal" what else changed, except for some probably temporary headwinds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Looks interesting? Yes, it looks interesting. I joined the cheap seats here with a starter position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliott Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Current chairman David Bonderman, who has been in the board for quite a few years, leaves in 2020 to be replaced by Stan McCarthy who joined the company in 2017 - prior to that, Stan had no airline industry experience as far as I can tell - he has spent most of his professional career in the Kerry Group (Note: I am not sure Bonderman had airline industry experience when he joined the board, but that was in 1996, when the company operated only 12 aircraft). The current CEO, the iconic O'Leary, will also be stepping down in the short term (his contract expires in 2024, so either then or before). O'Leary has been key to the success of Ryanair, and I wonder if his strong, almost blind focus in costs will be inherited by his successor. So, will Ryanair continue to be the "lowest cost producer" in the markets it operates in after the departure of Bonderman and O'Leary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-19/ryanair-freezes-payments-to-boeing-on-737-max-delivery-delays "At the meeting Thursday, O’Leary said he’s not planning to retire soon. Yet the CEO also told reporters his priorities have shifted to wanting to spend more time with his family. “My life is changing,” he said. “In my thirties and forties all I wanted to do was work for Ryanair and spend all my life working. I cannot now spend all my life working.” Shareholders approved a bonus plan for the executive with a narrow 50.5% margin." https://www.ft.com/content/3f0684b8-dab7-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17 "The protest centres around options for 10m shares that were issued to Mr O’Leary in February and would pay out €99m if the company made a €2bn profit or its share price reached €21 over the next five years. Mr O’Leary admitted it was a “particularly sensitive” remuneration report. “We’re disappointed that the vote wasn’t higher,” he said. But the chief executive defended the share options on the basis that they aligned his interests with shareholders. “I don’t think there’s any investor in that room . . . that would begrudge a large number of share options if I doubled their investment in the next five years,” he told reporters. “If I don’t do it over the next five years, you don’t pay me anything at all. It’s a free bet for shareholders.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary sits down with Reuters Tim Hepher to discuss challenges including industry-wide consolidation, environmental taxes, Brexit, the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX and his 5-year, 100 million euro bonus package. Watch here the full event. https://www.reuters.com/video/2019/10/01/reuters-newsmaker-full-event-ryanairs-ol?videoId=607123734 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliott Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary sits down with Reuters Tim Hepher to discuss challenges including industry-wide consolidation, environmental taxes, Brexit, the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX and his 5-year, 100 million euro bonus package. Watch here the full event. https://www.reuters.com/video/2019/10/01/reuters-newsmaker-full-event-ryanairs-ol?videoId=607123734 Thanks for posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJDelphi Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 Anyone have a good explanation for why the ADR's trade at a 15-20% premium to the shares in London or Ireland? Seems like they historically have too. I'm just going to buy it in London but was curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Anyone have a good explanation for why the ADR's trade at a 15-20% premium to the shares in London or Ireland? Seems like they historically have too. I'm just going to buy it in London but was curious There is no 20% premium, maybe you forgot about the GBp/USD exchange rate , which is currently 1.22. RYA.L trades at 10.74x5x1.22=$65.5. There is a small premium, but it’s less than 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 But 10.74 is a price in EUR? Maybe ADR premium is related to foreign ownership limitation? Also it seems there is a new angle to this becouse of the possible hard brexit: "Under current rules, at least half of Ryanair must be owned by European investors. The problem is, once the UK leaves Europe (and therefore UK investors are no longer considered European) Ryanair will not meet these criteria. UK investors are thought to make-up about 20% of Ryanair’s shareholder base and, without them, European investors will make up around 45%. This means Ryanair risks losing its right to operate in Europe if the UK leaves without a deal. Ryanair has introduced severe measures to tackle the problem by announcing it could strip UK investors of their voting rights under a no-deal scenario to ensure it remains under the control of European investors. UK investors could also be banned from buying new stock (but they could still buy American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), which don’t carry any voting power) and, when they sell, be forced to offload them to European buyers. That would remain in place until it could rebalance its share register, so it is 55% owned by Europeans. Ryanair chief financial officer (CFO) Neil Sohoran has previously said this could take up to eight months. Only then would UK investors regain their voting power. The EU has said it would not impose the ownership rules immediately even under a hard Brexit, but airlines won’t have long to get their houses in order. The other concern is that Ryanair plans to use its share buyback programme to rebalance its share register. It announced a new €700 million buyback but soon adjusted the terms to allow ‘block trades’, which would mean it would prioritise buying back UK-held stock. Originally, Ryanair planned to spend the bulk of its buyback budget (€500 million) on repurchasing ADRs. Ryanair has been clear that a hard Brexit will be detrimental to UK-based shareholders. One question on a Brexit-related FAQ page on its website asks: ‘I’m not comfortable with the scenario where I lose voting rights, what are my options post a hard Brexit?.' Ryanair’s blunt response is: ‘There are no other options, you are free to sell your shares in the market at any time.’ It is important to stress that this is nothing more than a warning at present and only applicable if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. While that is still very possible amid the current political climate, some have criticised Ryanair’s drastic approach for what is still a hypothetical situation. IAG – which would be even further from complying to EU ownership rules under a hard Brexit – has been far more relaxed on the matter after Walsh shrugged off questions by stating he would solve the issue ‘by magic’." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 London stock prices XX.L are in GBP. The brits never took on the Euro. One GBP=1.22 USD currently although Boris is working on bringing it to par. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary/IE00BYTBXV33IEEURSSMU.html Price (EUR) However I have not found sure explanation why ADRs historically traded at the premium, but they themselves mentioned this situation in their fillings: "As the ADRs typically trade at a premium of 15% to 20% compared to Ordinary Shares, this may result in increased costs in performing share buy-backs in the future." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary/IE00BYTBXV33IEEURSSMU.html Price (EUR) However I have not found sure explanation why ADRs historically traded at the premium, but they themselves mentioned this situation in their fillings: "As the ADRs typically trade at a premium of 15% to 20% compared to Ordinary Shares, this may result in increased costs in performing share buy-backs in the future." Interesting and thanks for pointing this out. I didn’t know that shares in London trade indifferent currencies. Yes, I would absolutely buy in London. A 20% premium is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJDelphi Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary/IE00BYTBXV33IEEURSSMU.html Price (EUR) However I have not found sure explanation why ADRs historically traded at the premium, but they themselves mentioned this situation in their fillings: "As the ADRs typically trade at a premium of 15% to 20% compared to Ordinary Shares, this may result in increased costs in performing share buy-backs in the future." Yea I noticed that in the filings too that's why I checked my math and asked the question. Weird situation I've seen a couple other securities on the LSE that are in Euro's too so I always watch out for that. I guess Interactive Brokers doesn't have the LSE Ryanair shares available so going to get them in Ireland. Still Euros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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