Uccmal Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Volume yesterday was about 3.8 million. I am wondering if sellers were just trying to take advantage of the rise to get rid of some stock and buyers were looking at it from the arb. perspective. Volume today is tiny, so far. I dont really care either way. My target is above $20 subject to adjustment as more info arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Given the length of the SSW thread I wonder why nobody has mentioned GSL as an investment opportunity. Are there any specifics reasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 http://www.thestreet.com/video/11345196/2012-shipping-biz-looks-strong-says-seaspan-ceo.html#1327695626001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The main risk with GSL is their customers are ZIM and CGM (both highly levered shipping firms) and these firms have high default risk and the ship leasing businesses is for the most part a ship financing business. Costamere is another ship leasor with a more stable customer base but sells at a premium to Seaspan. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The main risk with GSL is their customers are ZIM and CGM (both highly levered shipping firms) and these firms have high default risk and the ship leasing businesses is for the most part a ship financing business. Costamere is another ship leasor with a more stable customer base but sells at a premium to Seaspan. Packer Customer concentration has been mentioned as an issue, but when a whole sector is under distress, sometimes concentration is better than diversification if you go with the strongest. Zim is very small client, it is mostly about CMA CGM. CMA CGM was one of the few profitable companies last year, does not have an unmanageable newbuild program, and raised substantial capital (500M+) in the middle of the crisis. It also has sport assets to support that debt. It is is probably the strongest of the bunch (better than Maersk) and is not playing hardball as COSCO (They own subordinated shares of GSL). Not that I do not like SSW, just trying to assess the relative risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Go to page 10 for a comparison of CMA CGM's orderbook against others. http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4IHSNP/1567788382x0x498151/d1ccb093-e8bc-412c-aa64-927cdc7396b6/GSL%20September%202011%20Presentation%20FINAL.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The one thing that did cause me to pause was CMA CGM's credit rating of CCC+ and current bond prices in the 40s. Seaspan in contrast had all A to AAA clients. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The one thing that did cause me to pause was CMA CGM's credit rating of CCC+ and current bond prices in the 40s. Seaspan in contrast had all A to AAA clients. Packer Very interesting Packer. Not sure why the discrepancy in their ratings considering the others large orderbooks while losing money. And it is not like the other are not levered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I am not sure how the CMA CGM "earnings" are calculated but I have a tendency to trust the bond market as an indicator of defualt risk and when I bought SSW it was as cheap as GSL. Right now SSW is more expensive but still cheap when compared to Costamere and other leasing fimrs such as GATX Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I am not sure how the CMA CGM "earnings" are calculated but I have a tendency to trust the bond market as an indicator of defualt risk and when I bought SSW it was as cheap as GSL. Right now SSW is more expensive but still cheap when compared to Costamere and other leasing fimrs such as GATX Packer The bond market sometimes can be wrong, specially these days for a European company. The current CMA CGM bond price is worse than in 2009 when CMA CGM was raising capital, his build program was twice as today, had short term maturities, and was losing money. CMA CGM refi'd out of their '12/'13 unsecureds into '17/'19's and raised $500M from Yildrim for a 20% stake. There were several PE firms willing to buy it in those dark times but Saade (CMA CGM CEO) battled them out. Even the French government offered to infuse capital. COSCO probably has a worse balance sheet and larger newbuild program than CMA CGM. Also operationally CMA CGM has been the leader in forging alliances (colluding) in their main routes to "stabilize" prices. My main worry is GSL's LTV covenant (not sure how SSW is handling this) that has been waived a couple of times but can be a real pain in case of a real crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Some links on CMA CGM current situation: http://www.cma-cgm.com/AboutUs/PressRoom/Press-Release_CMA-CGM-First-Half-2011-Results_11607.aspx http://www.cma-cgm.com/AboutUs/PressRoom/Press-Release_Nine-Month-2011-Revenue-and-Earnings_12087.aspx "At 30 September, the Group’s cash position remained amply positive, at $763 million, with all of the year’s capital expenditure already committed." "At a time of market overcapacity and high oil prices, for the first nine months consolidated EBITDA remained positive at $672 million and the Group reported a net profit of $13.2 million." |the Group has decided to deploy a vigorous action plan to reduce full-year costs by $400 million, which will deliver its full impact in 2012." "In addition, CMA CGM has announced the creation of a leading partnership with MSC, the world's second largest container shipping group. The operating agreement, which concerns the Asia-Northern Europe, Asia-Southern Africa and South American trades, is designed to substantially improve the Group’s performance and generate major operating synergies." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 My main worry is GSL's LTV covenant (not sure how SSW is handling this) that has been waived a couple of times but can be a real pain in case of a real crisis. Easy. SSW doesn't have LTV covenants on its debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 ABC Funds has updated their write-up on their Seaspan position: http://www.valueinvestigator.com/en/valuefavourites/ssw.php#update The most interesting tidbit to me was that they have no intention of tendering their shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Easy. SSW doesn't have LTV covenants on its debt. That is a good reason :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Regarding this tender offer, the $15 per share number seems oddly similar to the conversion price from that dilutive capital raise a couple of years back. Second, they have 2 ships to be delivered this February and another 2 in April. After that, no more ships for roughly 2 more years. So regarding this progressive dividend policy, where they stated that they will raise the dividend as ships are delivered... I take it they will raise the dividend in the next 6 months but then not again for two more years. So it might be a big dividend raise. I'm long SSW but I did so by writing the Feb $15 put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaf63 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 21.3 million shares were tendered and SSW will buy 11.3 mil of them, approx. 53%, so about half of shares offered will be purchased and the rest returned by Jan. 19 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Seaspan-Announces-Preliminary-iw-1392777767.html?x=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 two questions I still have; a) has the company confirmed that the repurchased shares will be cancelled? b) if those shares are cancelled I wonder if the same dividend pool will be spread over the remaining shares? Looks like about $.90/share or so. <IV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAL9000 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Judging from the timing, it looks like half will be canceled and the other half will be put towards the acquisition of the ship manager. I think we'll see a small div increase for 2011Q4 tied to the lower share count, and we'll see another (guessing larger) increase at the end of 2012Q1 tied to the new vessels on the water and the implied annual revision of the dividend policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Interesting reaction of the stock price. Starting to look like a good move by SSW. I tendered 1/3 of my position, expect 1/6 to go through. I bought the same number of shares a week or two earlier at about 13.30. Wish I had had more cash available but then whats new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 SSW shot up after the tender - expect it to go down once some of the tendered shares come back to market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaf63 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Have been wondering when they would get to announcing the div. , They kept it the same , no raise, Their phrase "sustainable" is trumping their " progressive" Seaspan Declares Dividend of $0.1875 Per Common Share for Fourth Quarter 2011 HONG KONG, CHINA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 02/03/12 -- Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW) announced today that the Company's Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.1875 per common share for the three months ended December 31, 2011. The dividend will be paid on February 22, 2012 to all shareholders of record as of February 13, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santayana Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Big price move on big volume in the past hour. Wonder if some information got leaked about next quarter's dividend. It was 1st quarter last year that they raised from .12 to .19 causing a big run up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JEast Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 If you are a US shareholder, don't worry about an increase in the dividend as it will all go to pay the increased taxes. That is - if the new proposed budget is accepted to triple the dividend tax :) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204880404577225493025537660.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories Cheers JEast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santayana Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Holding in the tax deferred account, so hopefully I won't feel all the pain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Seems kind of strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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