ODET.PA - Financière de l'Odet SE

[Spekulatius]

Squeeze outs are a real concern. I had a couple happen to me - BCAM.PA, HDG.AS and perhaps FPE.MI.

In all cases owner operators are on the other side and they don’t like to overpay and like stile when their prey is weak [share prices are low). I made out OK,  it the premiums aren’t huge and I was paid less than fair value.

 

I don’t own ODET any more even though I like the underlying assets. I did a tax loss trade and switched to VIV, mostly for direct exposure Universal. I think eventually Vivendi also will get into the Bollore/ Odet maelstrom by Bollore slowly buying in and Vivendi buybacks bit it will take a while. i like this exposure better and th stock is also more liquid.

 

It is an interesting strategy to use tax loss sales when you end up in the hole with one of those buys and just switch to Bollore, Vivendi or Odet.

[SI]

What i wonder is with all the BOL insiders owning Odet and what i hear is that other lower employees buying Odet, is there an offer that possibly wouldn’t offer stock? My assumption is that it will be an offer of BOL stock but if you were to treat Blue Solutions so fairly(my opinion) is a cash tender for the minorities that is largely insiders and, with IVA gone, no longer any funds beyond 3-6k shares(we are in that range), is there a good reason to only offer cash?

 

Now does the exchange ratio offer value parity or is the discount split for both parties, maybe, but i doubt it but that’s what makes a market.

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

What i wonder is with all the BOL insiders owning Odet and what i hear is that other lower employees buying Odet, is there an offer that possibly wouldn’t offer stock? My assumption is that it will be an offer of BOL stock but if you were to treat Blue Solutions so fairly(my opinion) is a cash tender for the minorities that is largely insiders and, with IVA gone, no longer any funds beyond 3-6k shares(we are in that range), is there a good reason to only offer cash?

 

Now does the exchange ratio offer value parity or is the discount split for both parties, maybe, but i doubt it but that’s what makes a market.

 

I am pretty sure at value parity, Mr Bollore would just buy Bollore - they control already  ODET  that one is not going away from them so why buy more at value parity of Bollore stock? I think they will buy whatever gives them the best value within that Bollore spiderweb, from which nothing can escape.

[SI]

What i meant was if Odet is trading at a 30% discount to BOL, does BOL have to offer a 30% premium to Odet? At first you would consider what lbdrk just offered for gliba. Gliba was trading at a low double digit discount but in the merger went at a mid single discount so the independent shareholders at lbrdk would get something for adding complexity besides greater liquidity. Would BOL want to ‘split the difference’ and get 15% of that discount for the economic merit of BOL?

 

At second glance - minorities were 8% of odet shares vs 6x higher for BOL. It is an important question because the discount is obviously materially higher than in gliba. With VB and his employees owning so much more, it is hard to believe a tender wouldn’t be done at a economically equivalent price and as we saw for directtv/liberty/news corp - paying a premium can be justified and in this case is just a way to further increase VB’s control. Now that may be more trouble than its worth but i think leaves me believing we will see a healthy premium for Odet shares in the exchange ratio.

 

On why do it, if your ultimate aim is to use the VIV cash flows to finance a slow take private before VIV  gets a self financed tender offer for control, what’s next? To me it is always using the VIV cash flows to power BOL in a merger.

 

VIV cash flows can be said to bring the culture, finance and infrastructure ministers ever closer to BOL. If BOL is going to stand against the global transportation companies, do they need VIV’s financial strength, i believe so. If VB does, this is how he will proceed or more importantly if he wants the VIV/BOL exchange ratio to his liking, this will be the rationale to merge Odet first(maybe at the same time as the VIV tender for control). He needs the BOL stock at the multiples of the global transport companies and arguably then wants VIV to float a control premium.