The Great Contributors to Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax

[KJP]

I was hoping that this thread would be differentiated from previous "who's worth reading on Corner" types of threads by putting the focus a bit more on the process and skills of contributing well.

 

Wrister, thank you for taking a moment to share your thoughts and for expressing yourself through "rational, independent analysis".

 

There is obviously no one right way to contribute and we benefit from different styles of participation, so it would be great to get more input along the lines of what Wrister contributed. For those of you who stopped by to accept a round of applause (Wabuffo, SharperDingaan, Viking and Ben Hacker, for example), would you be willing to share some similar analysis?

 

Some possible starting points:

What you like to see in posts by others?

What about your own background and process contributes to others appreciating your contributions?

Do any of you have rules or guidelines you use to think about when deciding whether or how to post?

Do you think about your reader when posting? If so, how do you think about readers?

 

Thank you in advance for keeping it a positive, constructive conversation.

 

For whatever it's worth, I think a useful first post on a proposed investment (i) explains what the company does and how it makes money, (ii) explains the important factors that are likely to determine the company's performance/stock price going forward, (iii) offers some rational analysis of how those factors are likely to play out, and (iv) says something about the company's current valuation. 

 

A post that says, "XYZ is at a 52-week low, what do you think?" doesn't meet that standard and suggests the poster doesn't have any useful information about the company.  Similarly, a long post with a lot of description that ends with "If the company can just get margins back to X% you'll do well" fails to because it doesn't get at (iii) above and contains no actual useful analysis.  Many times, forcing yourself to cover all four issues in writing will reveal many things you don't know and that may be unknowable.  But unknowns are important and should be included in the post, because at least you understand the risks you're taking on and another poster may be able to shed some light on the gaps in your knowledge.

 

Useful follow-up posts are those that add additional material facts or analysis (not minutia) or provide some insight or commentary that presses the original poster to justify certain of his or her views.  In my view, too many follow-up posters don't bother to read carefully the initial post (because they ask a question that was already covered in the initial post), ask lazy questions that could be answered with two minutes of research into the company's filings, or simply make assertions, e.g., "I think this company is a zero," that are useless because the poster doesn't articulate any coherent reasoning in support.

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

Grew up in the colonies, under apartheid, sanctions, terrorism, and UK ‘capitalism’. Bootlegged, seen the collapse of nations, escaped with head/limbs still intact, have had to start again in new places, met all kinds of interesting people along the way, and have learnt from the best. No different than many others before me.

 

African dictators, and their apparatus, are the same as everyone else’s; what ‘should’ happen, and what actually does. To control a majority, you have to use patterns; in communication, finance, commerce, detection, etc. But live under continuous sanctions (or oppression), and these patterns, and their evasion, become as natural as breathing. As many an older Russian, South American, or Lebanese will tell you; and often with a sparkle in their eye.

 

As applied to investing, we’re just executing a version of Yin and Yang. The very western ‘textbook’ financial theorems of Yin, against the more ‘earthy’ time-tested patterns of Yang. So long as everything remains ‘balanced’ we suffer; but in ‘dis-continuities’ we tend to do very well. In today’s world – Talebs bar-bell approach.

 

We also recognize that in investing; time and volatility, are very close cousins (occasionally the same thing). Over a long holding period, the price of a commodity stock at any point in time, should reflect the commodity’s current place in the commodity cycle. When there is a lag (most cases), you are looking at a cheaply executable Yin/Yang opportunity, driven by time arbitrage (market short-term vs your long-term orientation). Talebs bar-bell.

 

It means that for long periods of time we have to be able to weather negative returns, offset by short periods of multi-bagger returns. If we don’t need cash flow, negative returns are meaningless as we don’t need to sell. But when we do sell, we need to be puling gains out of the portfolio – and applying them elsewhere; typically, mortgages. We don’t need cashflow because mortgages are already paid off.

 

Different mentality.

 

SD

 

[Artha158]

Lance.

[Liberty]

I wish Eric would start posting more again. Sounded like he might, not that long ago.

[CorpRaider]

It seems like Eric and those type guys post more/get more active in "target rich environments."  Like, everyone posted less frequently after they booked their 6x returns in BAC-WT. 

 

Related:  What happened to Kraven?  I always liked his posts.  I guess there is not a lot to say if you're a quant value guy and you are not in a "dislocation". 

[writser]

Related:  What happened to Kraven?  I always liked his posts.  I guess there is not a lot to say if you're a quant value guy and you are not in a "dislocation".

 

I think he pretty much gave up on posting here. A shame, I liked his posts as well. CoBF's Walter Schloss.

[Mephistopheles]

Related:  What happened to Kraven?  I always liked his posts.  I guess there is not a lot to say if you're a quant value guy and you are not in a "dislocation".

 

I think he pretty much gave up on posting here. A shame, I liked his posts as well. CoBF's Walter Schloss.

 

He was hilarious, I miss him too

[Spekulatius]

I was hoping that this thread would be differentiated from previous "who's worth reading on Corner" types of threads by putting the focus a bit more on the process and skills of contributing well.

 

Wrister, thank you for taking a moment to share your thoughts and for expressing yourself through "rational, independent analysis".

 

There is obviously no one right way to contribute and we benefit from different styles of participation, so it would be great to get more input along the lines of what Wrister contributed. For those of you who stopped by to accept a round of applause (Wabuffo, SharperDingaan, Viking and Ben Hacker, for example), would you be willing to share some similar analysis?

 

Some possible starting points:

What you like to see in posts by others?

What about your own background and process contributes to others appreciating your contributions?

Do any of you have rules or guidelines you use to think about when deciding whether or how to post?

Do you think about your reader when posting? If so, how do you think about readers?

 

Thank you in advance for keeping it a positive, constructive conversation.

 

There are three sort of posts that I appreciate the most

1) Posts that present a new idea or view to the community

2) Posts that lead me to change my mind

3) Posts that Save me a lot of Time

 

I think packer16 Post on CTO is angriest example of #3

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/any-reit-experts-here/msg384761/#msg384761

 

It’s a very short but succinct analysis of the pros and cons of CTO, presented in a former post from Gregmal.

 

A good example of 2) was this in the SPOT thread where griezemann23 pointed out a huge error that Aswath made (and didn’t catch it):

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/spot-spotify/msg383561/#msg383561

 

A great example (for me) Of 1) was John ‘s post about ODET. I was just researching music labels and knew that Bollore had a stake in this business. I had ODET on my research list and this post reminded me to look again:

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/odet-pa-financiere-de-l'odet-se/

 

I am the first to omit they I post mostly for my own benefit. That sometimes leads to “throwing something on the wall and see if it sticks”. The result are some times obvious errors. Despite that, I do hope that some of the stuff on the wall is beneficial to other board members too.

 

[Viking]

I was hoping that this thread would be differentiated from previous "who's worth reading on Corner" types of threads by putting the focus a bit more on the process and skills of contributing well.

 

Wrister, thank you for taking a moment to share your thoughts and for expressing yourself through "rational, independent analysis".

 

There is obviously no one right way to contribute and we benefit from different styles of participation, so it would be great to get more input along the lines of what Wrister contributed. For those of you who stopped by to accept a round of applause (Wabuffo, SharperDingaan, Viking and Ben Hacker, for example), would you be willing to share some similar analysis?

 

Some possible starting points:

What you like to see in posts by others?

What about your own background and process contributes to others appreciating your contributions?

Do any of you have rules or guidelines you use to think about when deciding whether or how to post?

Do you think about your reader when posting? If so, how do you think about readers?

 

Thank you in advance for keeping it a positive, constructive conversation.

 

I believe the value of this board is the diversity of the people who post on it. We all come at this thing called investing in very different ways. I tend to he highly concentrated. When i find something i really like (the stars align) i then tend to post a great deal (in a pretty focussed way). Recently, it was the big US banks. Before that it was Apple. Go back far enough and it was Fairfax (and their publicly traded subs like Odyssey Re). I also mostly only look at large caps, mostly US.

 

When postingbon one of my ‘big’ ideas i try and lay out the rationale was much as possible (usually over many posts). At that point in time i am looking for why i am wrong... what am i missing? If it is such a good idea why do others not see it? I am hoping other posters rip my thesis apart - i am really looking for the logic. I kind of get like a dog with a bone (some might get sick of how many posts they see on a single topic :-). Unfortunately, i only come up with a great ‘big’ idea once every couple of years. Fortunately that is more than enough for me :-)

 

I also will post on other smaller, ideas. These might be singles, offering a small return (to use a baseball term). Berkshire has been a recent example of this.

 

So what i am holding in my portfolio tends to really impact what i post about. Today (and this year) i am mostly cash so my posting is more erratic and is more high level.

 

I also will change my mind on investments and i do not always post on this. The biggest challenge i find with helping family/friends with investing is the need to constantly communicate your thought process/rationale, especially when you change your mind on something. You might buy a stock and be 70% convinced; other times you might be 90%. New news might come out and you might like a stock a little less (from 70% to 60%). Try explaining that to someone else. Too complicated for me. Same thing happens when posting; some ideas get better and some get worse... it is very difficult to constantly post the new scorecard in a coherent way.

 

What i love about anonymity is that i do not have constantly explain/justify every purchase or sale or what is going on in my head. That is one thing i really like about posting... you post when you feel like it.

 

The flip side of this is buyer beware. I have never made a purchase based on what others said, lost money and then blamed them (in my mind). I do not expect people who are bullish on a company to tell me when they change their mind. They are not my financial adviser.

 

I am looking for investment ideas, and i love it when people supply some basic rationale. I can then start my due dilligence. I am constantly looking for that next ‘big’ idea. Once I start my research i own the idea, not the person who gave it to me.

 

Bottom line, i have come to really enjoy the diversity of the people who post on this board. I have stolen many things from many of you over the years :-) Big thank you, as has been stated, to Sanjeev for starting and then managing this board for so many years. Simply amazing what he has done and the value it has provided to many of us.