The Warren Basket

[Gregmal]

The point of the thread was to throw around ideas that could work leading into an election where she is the top democrat candidate, and/or if she wins. Theres no purpose to debate if Trump is removed; Pence takes over...same deal as we have now. Lest how quick we forget how 90% of this board got caught with their pants down with their "assumptions" last election. I should go back and look for that thread. It was hilarious.

 

Anyways, little harm in looking at even long shot trade ideas. At the rate most people discard ideas anyway, it shouldn't take much time. COBF and most "value guys" typically fit the following equation:

 

here s top quality tier A company = "I'll pass, too expensive"

 

here s a dirt cheat, average company = "I'll pass, its got too much hair"

 

Always an excuse not to invest. Like I said, no harm in browsing.

[RuleNumberOne]

Trump never threatened to harm the economic well-being of people and companies.

 

Elizabeth threatens to destroy the economic well-being of all kinds of people and companies.

[Broeb22]

Again I think you people have warren darrangement syndrome.  Also like European derrangement syndrome.  Like I said before, worse case scenario we end up like Germany or France and apprently to you guys that future wasunbareable. You might really dislike those countries but the average citizen there believes their way of life (not just economy-wise) is significantly better than the United States, so its not like they are begging to live in our system of government and politics.  I'm not saying their system is better than ours, but it helps to be open minded to other points of view especially if they are as happy as you are with what they have.  Anyway, I think you'll probably regret hedging as much as you are saying.  Sure buying a little more international stocks would be good, but this idea that she's going to cause the downfall of the US system seems ridiculous.

 

Last I checked this was an investing forum, and last I checked essentially every European index has gone nowhere in the last decade as the combination of their open border policies, rich entitlements, lax working environments/schedules, low birth rate, and internal squabbling, to name a few, has collectively left the region in a state stagnation.

 

Cherry-picking Germany as some shining light of economic strength without mentioning the economic destruction in places like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal is at best irresponsible. Germany benefits economically as part of the EU for the exact same reasons that Greece, Italty, etc. struggle. 

[no_free_lunch]

As far as betting odds, you should be looking at the odds of Warren winning the democratic ticket.  She is heavily favored, her odds are more than double that of Biden who is ranked second.

 

Only once she becomes the official candidate will we get good odds data on her chance of winning the election. 

 

At this point, there is a very real chance it is Warren on the ticket.

 

I also think this is very appropriate for an investing board.  If Warren is elected you are crazy to invest in a number of different sectors.  In particular, I sold out of Fannie preferred's mainly due to the timeframe stretching out past the election.

[John Hjorth]

Again I think you people have warren darrangement syndrome.  Also like European derrangement syndrome.  Like I said before, worse case scenario we end up like Germany or France and apprently to you guys that future wasunbareable. You might really dislike those countries but the average citizen there believes their way of life (not just economy-wise) is significantly better than the United States, so its not like they are begging to live in our system of government and politics.  I'm not saying their system is better than ours, but it helps to be open minded to other points of view especially if they are as happy as you are with what they have.  Anyway, I think you'll probably regret hedging as much as you are saying.  Sure buying a little more international stocks would be good, but this idea that she's going to cause the downfall of the US system seems ridiculous.

 

Last I checked this was an investing forum, and last I checked essentially every European index has gone nowhere in the last decade as the combination of their open border policies, rich entitlements, lax working environments/schedules, low birth rate, and internal squabbling, to name a few, has collectively left the region in a state stagnation.

 

Cherry-picking Germany as some shining light of economic strength without mentioning the economic destruction in places like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal is at best irresponsible. Germany benefits economically as part of the EU for the exact same reasons that Greece, Italty, etc. struggle.

 

And what has all this to do with being a stock picker? - You're posting like an indexer.

[SharperDingaan]

No polls, there's nothing to report, and nothing to sensationalise to sell air-time, ad-space, or drive up click count (to raise the cost of that media time-slot). Its all about the money - content is just the days toilet paper.

 

The big event remains a year away; there will be material change between now and then, and even if Warren wins the democratic ticket - the democrats still have to win the election. With so many variables changing, and for so long; it's pretty hard to have any confidence in today's prediction holding up until voting day - yet we want to trade on it? We're not 'investing', we're speculating, and the bet is really just a ticket at the betting shop. Maybe it pays off, maybe it doesn't.

 

Agreed, there's nothing wrong in idle speculation.

But at least recognize that this far out from the main event; 'political', & 'market', speculation are just not the same thing.

 

I'm hoping for a better pay-off on Trumps impeachment - gotta pay for that rope!

 

SD

 

 

[Gregmal]

Again I think you people have warren darrangement syndrome.  Also like European derrangement syndrome.  Like I said before, worse case scenario we end up like Germany or France and apprently to you guys that future wasunbareable. You might really dislike those countries but the average citizen there believes their way of life (not just economy-wise) is significantly better than the United States, so its not like they are begging to live in our system of government and politics.  I'm not saying their system is better than ours, but it helps to be open minded to other points of view especially if they are as happy as you are with what they have.  Anyway, I think you'll probably regret hedging as much as you are saying.  Sure buying a little more international stocks would be good, but this idea that she's going to cause the downfall of the US system seems ridiculous.

 

Last I checked this was an investing forum, and last I checked essentially every European index has gone nowhere in the last decade as the combination of their open border policies, rich entitlements, lax working environments/schedules, low birth rate, and internal squabbling, to name a few, has collectively left the region in a state stagnation.

 

Cherry-picking Germany as some shining light of economic strength without mentioning the economic destruction in places like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal is at best irresponsible. Germany benefits economically as part of the EU for the exact same reasons that Greece, Italty, etc. struggle.

 

And what has all this to do with being a stock picker? - You're posting like an indexer.

 

For starters, sailing is easier when you have a weather report. And downright easy when you know which way the wind will be blowing.

 

Europe has consistently been a drag on the global economy. Basically every year since 2010 we've been dealing with one crisis to be or another from them. I continually deal with white collar Europeans who cant wait to get out. UK lawyers who have to relocate to Russia and Australia to avoid getting walloped with 55% tax rates. French executives who live like the poor folks Rulenumberone likes to refer to in Silicon Valley. Belgians getting cranked for nearly 40% of every dividend or tiny sliver of interest they earn on top of outrageously burdensome tax authority requests. The folks in Germany are generally the best off, but even there, its admittedly done in spite of the government and all the bullshit being peddled. The Scandinavian countries are definitely an outlier though. But acting like Europe is some model for what US people should get used to, well, thats preposterous.

 

As Ive said, there is a reason everything American trades at a premium. So with that said, if I see out on the very far horizon, a Warren iceberg, well, Im damn sure going to keep an eye on it, even if its not currently expected to get anywhere near my boat.

[John Hjorth]

For starters, sailing is easier when you have a weather report. And downright easy when you know which way the wind will be blowing.

 

Europe has consistently been a drag on the global economy. Basically every year since 2010 we've been dealing with one crisis to be or another from them. I continually deal with white collar Europeans who cant wait to get out. UK lawyers who have to relocate to Russia and Australia to avoid getting walloped with 55% tax rates. French executives who live like the poor folks Rulenumberone likes to refer to in Silicon Valley. Belgians getting cranked for nearly 40% of every dividend or tiny sliver of interest they earn on top of outrageously burdensome tax authority requests. The folks in Germany are generally the best off, but even there, its admittedly done in spite of the government and all the bullshit being peddled. The Scandinavian countries are definitely an outlier though. But acting like Europe is some model for what US people should get used to, well, thats preposterous.

 

As Ive said, there is a reason everything American trades at a premium. So with that said, if I see out on the very far horizon, a Warren iceberg, well, Im damn sure going to keep an eye on it, even if its not currently expected to get anywhere near my boat.

 

Oh, give me a break. It's all non-relevant, non-stock picking, & nonsense-talk from you. Greg, how about you asking me for a link to the best European bank that I know of?

[Gregmal]

For starters, sailing is easier when you have a weather report. And downright easy when you know which way the wind will be blowing.

 

Europe has consistently been a drag on the global economy. Basically every year since 2010 we've been dealing with one crisis to be or another from them. I continually deal with white collar Europeans who cant wait to get out. UK lawyers who have to relocate to Russia and Australia to avoid getting walloped with 55% tax rates. French executives who live like the poor folks Rulenumberone likes to refer to in Silicon Valley. Belgians getting cranked for nearly 40% of every dividend or tiny sliver of interest they earn on top of outrageously burdensome tax authority requests. The folks in Germany are generally the best off, but even there, its admittedly done in spite of the government and all the bullshit being peddled. The Scandinavian countries are definitely an outlier though. But acting like Europe is some model for what US people should get used to, well, thats preposterous.

 

As Ive said, there is a reason everything American trades at a premium. So with that said, if I see out on the very far horizon, a Warren iceberg, well, Im damn sure going to keep an eye on it, even if its not currently expected to get anywhere near my boat.

 

Oh, give me a break. It's all non-relevant nonsense-talk from you. Greg, how about you asking me for a link to the best European bank that I know of?

 

LOL seriously? Thats your response? Ive begun to think you are the type that if you cant plug it into an Excel sheet you cant/dont understand it. Which is fine. But pointing out variables that effect market conditions and discussing strategy for that, is useful to some, and could be to others; if they were able to appreciate it for what it is.

 

So, if the US basically becoming another Europe is "non-relevant" to you, well thats your decision. I really will try to look for the 2016 election thread sometime. Where a Trump victory was basically a non existent possibility to most here. Caught with the pants down and in that case, it was more an opportunity cost; things didn't go down like they will if Warren/Sanders wins, but people missed out on entire sectors going ballistic and missed a lot of easy money to be had. SLX(a sector ETF) did 50% in like 3 months, XLF over 33%, heck ever BRK did nearly 50% over the next 12... hogwash though I know! Nonsense talk!

[Guest cherzeca]

my best month was the month trump was elected.  I just dont want my worst month to be the month warren is elected.  simple as that

[John Hjorth]

For starters, sailing is easier when you have a weather report. And downright easy when you know which way the wind will be blowing.

 

Europe has consistently been a drag on the global economy. Basically every year since 2010 we've been dealing with one crisis to be or another from them. I continually deal with white collar Europeans who cant wait to get out. UK lawyers who have to relocate to Russia and Australia to avoid getting walloped with 55% tax rates. French executives who live like the poor folks Rulenumberone likes to refer to in Silicon Valley. Belgians getting cranked for nearly 40% of every dividend or tiny sliver of interest they earn on top of outrageously burdensome tax authority requests. The folks in Germany are generally the best off, but even there, its admittedly done in spite of the government and all the bullshit being peddled. The Scandinavian countries are definitely an outlier though. But acting like Europe is some model for what US people should get used to, well, thats preposterous.

 

As Ive said, there is a reason everything American trades at a premium. So with that said, if I see out on the very far horizon, a Warren iceberg, well, Im damn sure going to keep an eye on it, even if its not currently expected to get anywhere near my boat.

 

Oh, give me a break. It's all non-relevant nonsense-talk from you. Greg, how about you asking me for a link to the best European bank that I know of?

 

LOL seriously? Thats your response? Ive begun to think you are the type that if you cant plug it into an Excel sheet you cant/dont understand it. Which is fine. But pointing out variables that effect market conditions and discussing strategy for that, is useful to some, and could be to others; if they were able to appreciate it for what it is.

 

So, if the US basically becoming another Europe is "non-relevant" to you, well thats your decision. I really will try to look for the 2016 election thread sometime. Where a Trump victory was basically a non existent possibility to most here. Caught with the pants down and in that case, it was more an opportunity cost; things didn't go down like they will if Warren/Sanders wins, but people missed out on entire sectors going ballistic and missed a lot of easy money to be had. SLX(a sector ETF) did 50% in like 3 months, XLF over 33%, heck ever BRK did nearly 50% over the next 12... hogwash though I know! Nonsense talk!

 

Greg,

 

Cool down. You were asking for a [counter] "Warren Basket" : This is my take for a contribution :

 

Ringkøbing Landbobank A/S.

 

It's Danish. It beats even JPM on about every metric for the last years. What is it?: It's built over the long term for dentists, GP doctors & wind turbine financing.

 

So what has the "European Mess" to do with this? Answer : Nothing! - As always, you just have to dig it up! - And those kind of companies are all over the place in Europe! [Again : "Index/"general Europe" talk" vs. "real work".]

[Gregmal]

Perhaps we interpreted each other differently. I was replying to the notion "worst case in we become like Europe"...

 

Admittedly, and previously said, Scandinavian countries are an exception.

 

I was not looking at the path that seems to be implied by your suggestion; leave the US(diversify out of) and find investments elsewhere, such as in Europe. That though, is certainly an option, and probably even a soundly simple and low risk way to mitigate some risk over the next 12+ months rather than go cash or go short here in US.

[John Hjorth]

Perhaps we interpreted each other differently. I was replying to the notion "worst case in we become like Europe"...

 

Admittedly, and previously said, Scandinavian countries are an exception.

 

I was not looking at the path that seems to be implied by your suggestion; leave the US(diversify out of) and find investments elsewhere, such as in Europe. That though, is certainly an option, and probably even a soundly simple and low risk way to mitigate some risk over the next 12+ months rather than go cash or go short here in US.

 

Thank you, Greg,

 

You read my post exactly as it was meant.

 

So I'll just here repeat what I [basically] have already posted here : There are some certain specific risks related to investing in the US as of now  - based on the recent political situation, as perceived individually. I'm pretty confident, that the European CoBF members are open for discussion here on CoBF, if needed! [ : - ) ]

 

- Just shoot! [ ; - D ]

[RuleNumberOne]

https://www.ft.com/content/23e4aa46-c8b2-11e9-a1f4-3669401ba76f

 

Norway wants to own even more US equities (i.e. even more than its current 3:1 ratio). Norway doesn't want anything to do with European equities.

 

" The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund should slash its investments in Europe and increase them sharply in North America, according to a recommendation from the managers of Norway’s $1tn oil fund.

 

...which currently gives Europe a share of 19 per cent and North America 57 per cent.

 

Norway last changed the regional allocation of the fund in 2012 when it previously cut back on European equities at the height of the eurozone government debt crisis. At the time, European equities accounted for 50 per cent of the total while 35 per cent were in North America. "

 

[RuleNumberOne]

I think the Norway central bank made this equity weighting recommendation because it has data that we don't.

 

They manage Norway's sovereign wealth fund and want to get the hell out of European stocks.

[Spekulatius]

. UK lawyers who have to relocate to Russia and Australia to avoid getting walloped with 55% tax rates.

 

Any UK Lawyer that wants to relocate to Russia to save taxes probably deserves to be in jail. Seriously Russia? You would think they go to Luxembourg first.

[meiroy]

I travel to Germany about 3 month total including Prague, Costa Rica, and Mexico for work. I work daily with many people from these countries and the ones who are here in the US on work visa beg and moan and cry not to go back when their visas come up for expiration (and I wish they didn’t have to go). They ALL want to have their visas extended. Not to mention that 80% of them have kids while they’re here. I was talking with a coworker Standa a little bit ago. He said he loves the US health insurance. He pays $80 a month company pays like $200ish where as in Prague he said he was paying 10k a year through taxes etc.

Now Germany and Prague are not terrible in any sense. Beautiful countries. But the idea or argument that “oh well, the worst we can be is like so and so.” Is completely counterintuitive. Why does the US exist in the first place? It certainly doesn’t exist to be like Europe. If you all like Europe so much then why choose to live in the US? You sound like the homeschool kids who complain about missing out on sports that the local school offers.

 

You can’t have the cake and eat it too.

 

Czech Republic's PPP is about 35k and Germany is at 51k...  My German friends describe it as a place where it's cheap to be poor and expensive to be rich.  Households with jobs that provide low income, that would struggle in America, can live a very comfortable and content life.

[Gregmal]

. UK lawyers who have to relocate to Russia and Australia to avoid getting walloped with 55% tax rates.

 

Any UK Lawyer that wants to relocate to Russia to save taxes probably deserves to be in jail. Seriously Russia? You would think they go to Luxembourg first.

 

Why is that?

 

Its not just the big law firms, its the consulting and larger accounting(especially Big 4) as well. First, Luxembourg isn't a huge hub for most of these firms; they may have an office there, but typically(unless its a Mossac Fonseca type firm) they only have a few employees and one moderate sized office there. Whereas any firm of size who has a London office also probably have at least one, usually more though, locations in Russia, Hong Kong, Dubai, etc. So whereas the entire firm may have a presence of one office and 6 employees in Luxembourg, they've got 4 offices with two dozen people in each in places like Russia.

 

So if you're a junior partner or senior associate, going from $200 GBP a year plus bonus, to equity partner making $200K a month with a $1M+ quarterly partnership distribution... you're really going to stick around in London paying 55-60%, or request to go to an underserved location(where the firm is trying to build out their book of business), get paid to relocate, and pay 11% taxes? St. Pete for instance, if you like London, is pretty awesome. Russia is a little like the Wild West, but its crazy how badly people misrepresent it.

[SharperDingaan]

I think the Norway central bank made this equity weighting recommendation because it has data that we don't.

 

They manage Norway's sovereign wealth fund and want to get the hell out of European stocks.

 

The preferred solution for Norway's sovereigns fund is actually a greater weight to Asia (China); primarily at the expense of the US weighting. The problem is that China is communist, and property rights (share ownership) are 'discretionary'; all that Norway can really do is look to the 'other' Asian markets, and a very few 'reliable' chinese companies trading in the ADR market.

 

Not fashionable today, but at one time there was an argument that 'multi-nationals' were broadly the equivalent of sovereigns for asset allocation purposes; they were just a different 'type' of sovereign. We laugh today, but were a company to be a dominant player in the creation/maintenance of the blockchain digital global ledger, few would dispute that they were not essentially a digital sovereign. And worthy of a portion of the sovereign asset allocation.

 

Were that digital sovereign also maintaining blockchain global ledgers on 'pollution' (carbon trading, etc.) it would also be very hard to argue against - and particularly in a more environmentally conscious country such as Norway. And especially difficult, if these 'stateless' companies also reported/paid tax to a central 'global' authority/regulator, versus a purely national one.

 

Disruption.

 

SD

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

. UK lawyers who have to relocate to Russia and Australia to avoid getting walloped with 55% tax rates.

 

Any UK Lawyer that wants to relocate to Russia to save taxes probably deserves to be in jail. Seriously Russia? You would think they go to Luxembourg first.

 

Why is that?

 

Its not just the big law firms, its the consulting and larger accounting(especially Big 4) as well. First, Luxembourg isn't a huge hub for most of these firms; they may have an office there, but typically(unless its a Mossac Fonseca type firm) they only have a few employees and one moderate sized office there. Whereas any firm of size who has a London office also probably have at least one, usually more though, locations in Russia, Hong Kong, Dubai, etc. So whereas the entire firm may have a presence of one office and 6 employees in Luxembourg, they've got 4 offices with two dozen people in each in places like Russia.

 

So if you're a junior partner or senior associate, going from $200 GBP a year plus bonus, to equity partner making $200K a month with a $1M+ quarterly partnership distribution... you're really going to stick around in London paying 55-60%, or request to go to an underserved location(where the firm is trying to build out their book of business), get paid to relocate, and pay 11% taxes? St. Pete for instance, if you like London, is pretty awesome. Russia is a little like the Wild West, but its crazy how badly people misrepresent it.

 

I missunderstood your post. I thought it was about a wealthy lawyer considering to relocate to Russia, which makes no sense.

 

In case you got a job assignment, it’s like everything else  with a $1M + in income, you can live pretty well in Russia, but you won’t do too shabby in London either. FWIW, the top marginal tax rate in the UK is 45% not 55-60% as you stated, vs Russia 30%.

[Gregmal]

. UK lawyers who have to relocate to Russia and Australia to avoid getting walloped with 55% tax rates.

 

Any UK Lawyer that wants to relocate to Russia to save taxes probably deserves to be in jail. Seriously Russia? You would think they go to Luxembourg first.

 

Why is that?

 

Its not just the big law firms, its the consulting and larger accounting(especially Big 4) as well. First, Luxembourg isn't a huge hub for most of these firms; they may have an office there, but typically(unless its a Mossac Fonseca type firm) they only have a few employees and one moderate sized office there. Whereas any firm of size who has a London office also probably have at least one, usually more though, locations in Russia, Hong Kong, Dubai, etc. So whereas the entire firm may have a presence of one office and 6 employees in Luxembourg, they've got 4 offices with two dozen people in each in places like Russia.

 

So if you're a junior partner or senior associate, going from $200 GBP a year plus bonus, to equity partner making $200K a month with a $1M+ quarterly partnership distribution... you're really going to stick around in London paying 55-60%, or request to go to an underserved location(where the firm is trying to build out their book of business), get paid to relocate, and pay 11% taxes? St. Pete for instance, if you like London, is pretty awesome. Russia is a little like the Wild West, but its crazy how badly people misrepresent it.

 

I missunderstood your post. I thought it was about a wealthy lawyer considering to relocate to Russia, which makes no sense.

 

In case you got a job assignment, it’s like everything else  with a $1M + in income, you can live pretty well in Russia, but you won’t do too shabby in London either. FWIW, the top marginal tax rate in the UK is 45% not 55-60% as you stated, vs Russia 30%.

 

Who knows, I'd assume it is similar as it is in the States where you get dinged at certain levels which add to the totals. UK guys normally cite a 50-60% figure. I know for a fact the ones in Russia are paying around 10%, low teens or something is what Ive consistently been told. Whatever, I just make them money(or try to), their taxes are their problem. The point stands, these EU countries that think the solution to everything is tax the heck out of it, are losing their tax payer base. UAE is also beginning to become a hot spot for white collar European professionals tired of the tax man.

[Spekulatius]

Russia is 30% for non residents and 13% for residents, so it depends on how long your stay.

https://www.expatica.com/ru/finance/taxes/a-complete-guide-to-taxes-in-russia-104125/

 

If you are US citizen it doesn’t matter since you need to pay US taxes on foreign income anyways, which is unique in the world. The German tax authorities don’t give a hoot about income earned in foreign countries if you live there regardless of your citizenship status.

[stahleyp]

I don't agree with a lot of Warren's policies but she is the only Democrat I would consider voting for. Wealth inequality is insane. I say bring it on. There will be pain but pain isn't always bad.

 

The rich moving to other countries is fear mongering.

[Cardboard]

"There will be pain but pain isn't always bad."

 

Trying to learn from others mistakes should be a better strategy.

 

Pain is always painful and never welcomed. I am no sadist or masochist!

 

Cardboard

[stahleyp]

"There will be pain but pain isn't always bad."

 

Trying to learn from others mistakes should be a better strategy.

 

Pain is always painful and never welcomed. I am no sadist or masochist!

 

Cardboard

 

The lack of pain has made us weak. Adversity creates strength and resilience. Look at how tough people were 80 years ago and now...look at us!