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RH - Restoration Hardware


Cigarbutt

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^I don't necessarily want to stop the patriotic momentum but it's interesting that a link is made between a US firm that sells luxury 'vintage America' items (mostly made in Asia and 41% sourced in China) and a Switzerland-based regulation (Universal Postal Union, terminal fees covering the cost of delivery, initially for letters {there was a point in history when people used to write to each other}) dating from 1874 and governing packages weighting 2kg or less (this is 4.4 pounds for you, American friends).

-----

Side note: apart from the confusion of genre mentioned above and even if I agree that the trade imbalance needs to be addressed, the differential cost equation is again being addressed with an imposed increase in costs for the opponent. A move that will help some but with higher price tags for products that individual Americans were buying. Milton Friedman who pretty much liked competition offered the idea that there was no free lunch even if you're hungry for retaliation. :)

-----

Back to Restoration

Amazing - $6.5 shipping for that ugly chandelier from China. How do they do this?

Note: I think the chandelier weights more than 4.4 pounds so you can't say that it's the Swiss' fault.

But what I find really amazing is that Restoration offers an upgraded delivery service. If I understand correctly, to get the chandelier I would need to pay 149 CDN for the priceless delivery experience, assuming they accept to deliver in my area. Unfortunately, small characters indicate: "Please note that we do not unpack lighting". There are things that money can't buy.

https://www.restorationhardware.com/customer-service/shipping-and-delivery-info.jsp

 

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Does anyone know how much this subsidy actually costs?

 

The research I am seeing shows:

 

$75MM in 2014

$135MM in 2016

And estimated $300MM in 2018

 

In context:

The US imported $540 billion in goods from China in 2018.

The USPS posted a $3.9 billion loss in 2018.

 

So in that context, this subsidy seems relatively minuscule.

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I owned this in 2016 but exit the position at a small gain. Haven’t followed since then and have no clue about valuation. Having said that I disagree with most of the comments about the company and the product. I have several friends who bought furniture from them and know a couple of interior designers that take their customers there, so the moat is clearly way bigger than what someone may conclude from reading the opinion of a few value investors in this forum.

 

1) Price is important for most customers but not for all, 2) when buying furniture with no budget or a big budget, customers want something they can see and touch, at a nice and convenient location and from what they consider a respected/designer brand, 3) importing from China is not what a customer buying from RH is going to do or even consider, 4) upscale brands cater to a customer that likes the design and 5) when someone hires an interior designer that someone tends to follow the recommendation.

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I owned this in 2016 but exit the position at a small gain. Haven’t followed since then and have no clue about valuation. Having said that I disagree with most of the comments about the company and the product. I have several friends who bought furniture from them and know a couple of interior designers that take their customers there, so the moat is clearly way bigger than what someone may conclude from reading the opinion of a few value investors in this forum.

 

1) Price is important for most customers but not for all, 2) when buying furniture with no budget or a big budget, customers want something they can see and touch, at a nice and convenient location and from what they consider a respected/designer brand, 3) importing from China is not what a customer buying from RH is going to do or even consider, 4) upscale brands cater to a customer that likes the design and 5) when someone hires an interior designer that someone tends to follow the recommendation.

Many of these points are very relevant. In the last years, the redesign of their distribution footprint has played a role but they also have been able to capture additional wealthy consumer surplus through shrewd manipulation and effects on margins seem to indicate that the investment in costs (image manipulation has a cost that will eat some of the unusual keystone mark-ups) resulted in a positive leveraged NPV.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/RH/restoration-hardware-holdings/profit-margins

But the effects of manipulation are hard to predict and often come in cycles.

 

Customer pricing strategy is key for a retailer and there are many strategies when dealing with rich people. For the sub-segment that still has residual consciousness about value, the retailer may strategically position an obscenely-elevated-priced product beside other products that are only extremely elevated in price and the customer may (secretly) think that they are making a good deal. Another trick that works at all levels of wealth is to show two options at the same time and describe "special" features about the more expensive (even higher margin) option implicitly suggesting that only losers would buy the lower priced option. Like you mention, a key aspect of pricing in this exclusive category is that the value that the customer puts on a product may have little correlation, if any, with the underlying cost. RH has figured this out quite well lately but there are a lot of good salesmen out there. If interested in the above, there is a small book that tries to address those issues:

https://www.amazon.com/Priceless-Myth-Fair-Value-Advantage/dp/0809078813/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=priceless+the+myth+of+fair+value&qid=1574210349&sr=8-1

Nobody likes to be fooled but rich people are sometimes the easiest people to fool.

 

Potential bias here: When we "redesigned" our kitchen a few years ago, one of the options meant to go to a "concept" store and then to have a "designer" come to our house. The salesman started with the statement: "List 5 words that describe your expectations about the project". When my turn came to answer: "A place to make food". The salesman was disappointed and my comments ruined the 'experience'.

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^ kitchens have become the equivalent of an Altar in a Catholic Church.

An acquaintance of us is looking into a kitchen remodel with a now estimated cost of ~120k , which seems to keep going up.

 

I recommended to him to find a house in the same area with a kitchen he likes and buy it and sell his, which should come out cheaper all things considered.

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Potential bias here: When we "redesigned" our kitchen a few years ago, one of the options meant to go to a "concept" store and then to have a "designer" come to our house. The salesman started with the statement: "List 5 words that describe your expectations about the project". When my turn came to answer: "A place to make food". The salesman was disappointed and my comments ruined the 'experience'.

 

Humor is the ultimate, non-physical, disarmament tool.

 

If used well, as demonstrated here, it can effectively declaw the opposition.

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I owned this in 2016 but exit the position at a small gain. Haven’t followed since then and have no clue about valuation. Having said that I disagree with most of the comments about the company and the product. I have several friends who bought furniture from them and know a couple of interior designers that take their customers there, so the moat is clearly way bigger than what someone may conclude from reading the opinion of a few value investors in this forum.

 

1) Price is important for most customers but not for all, 2) when buying furniture with no budget or a big budget, customers want something they can see and touch, at a nice and convenient location and from what they consider a respected/designer brand, 3) importing from China is not what a customer buying from RH is going to do or even consider, 4) upscale brands cater to a customer that likes the design and 5) when someone hires an interior designer that someone tends to follow the recommendation.

Many of these points are very relevant. In the last years, the redesign of their distribution footprint has played a role but they also have been able to capture additional wealthy consumer surplus through shrewd manipulation and effects on margins seem to indicate that the investment in costs (image manipulation has a cost that will eat some of the unusual keystone mark-ups) resulted in a positive leveraged NPV.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/RH/restoration-hardware-holdings/profit-margins

But the effects of manipulation are hard to predict and often come in cycles.

 

Customer pricing strategy is key for a retailer and there are many strategies when dealing with rich people. For the sub-segment that still has residual consciousness about value, the retailer may strategically position an obscenely-elevated-priced product beside other products that are only extremely elevated in price and the customer may (secretly) think that they are making a good deal. Another trick that works at all levels of wealth is to show two options at the same time and describe "special" features about the more expensive (even higher margin) option implicitly suggesting that only losers would buy the lower priced option. Like you mention, a key aspect of pricing in this exclusive category is that the value that the customer puts on a product may have little correlation, if any, with the underlying cost. RH has figured this out quite well lately but there are a lot of good salesmen out there. If interested in the above, there is a small book that tries to address those issues:

https://www.amazon.com/Priceless-Myth-Fair-Value-Advantage/dp/0809078813/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=priceless+the+myth+of+fair+value&qid=1574210349&sr=8-1

Nobody likes to be fooled but rich people are sometimes the easiest people to fool.

 

Potential bias here: When we "redesigned" our kitchen a few years ago, one of the options meant to go to a "concept" store and then to have a "designer" come to our house. The salesman started with the statement: "List 5 words that describe your expectations about the project". When my turn came to answer: "A place to make food". The salesman was disappointed and my comments ruined the 'experience'.

 

Great post.  8)

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I owned this in 2016 but exit the position at a small gain. Haven’t followed since then and have no clue about valuation. Having said that I disagree with most of the comments about the company and the product. I have several friends who bought furniture from them and know a couple of interior designers that take their customers there, so the moat is clearly way bigger than what someone may conclude from reading the opinion of a few value investors in this forum.

 

1) Price is important for most customers but not for all, 2) when buying furniture with no budget or a big budget, customers want something they can see and touch, at a nice and convenient location and from what they consider a respected/designer brand, 3) importing from China is not what a customer buying from RH is going to do or even consider, 4) upscale brands cater to a customer that likes the design and 5) when someone hires an interior designer that someone tends to follow the recommendation.

Many of these points are very relevant. In the last years, the redesign of their distribution footprint has played a role but they also have been able to capture additional wealthy consumer surplus through shrewd manipulation and effects on margins seem to indicate that the investment in costs (image manipulation has a cost that will eat some of the unusual keystone mark-ups) resulted in a positive leveraged NPV.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/RH/restoration-hardware-holdings/profit-margins

But the effects of manipulation are hard to predict and often come in cycles.

 

Customer pricing strategy is key for a retailer and there are many strategies when dealing with rich people. For the sub-segment that still has residual consciousness about value, the retailer may strategically position an obscenely-elevated-priced product beside other products that are only extremely elevated in price and the customer may (secretly) think that they are making a good deal. Another trick that works at all levels of wealth is to show two options at the same time and describe "special" features about the more expensive (even higher margin) option implicitly suggesting that only losers would buy the lower priced option. Like you mention, a key aspect of pricing in this exclusive category is that the value that the customer puts on a product may have little correlation, if any, with the underlying cost. RH has figured this out quite well lately but there are a lot of good salesmen out there. If interested in the above, there is a small book that tries to address those issues:

https://www.amazon.com/Priceless-Myth-Fair-Value-Advantage/dp/0809078813/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=priceless+the+myth+of+fair+value&qid=1574210349&sr=8-1

Nobody likes to be fooled but rich people are sometimes the easiest people to fool.

 

Potential bias here: When we "redesigned" our kitchen a few years ago, one of the options meant to go to a "concept" store and then to have a "designer" come to our house. The salesman started with the statement: "List 5 words that describe your expectations about the project". When my turn came to answer: "A place to make food". The salesman was disappointed and my comments ruined the 'experience'.

 

I agree.

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Cigarbutt, I'd argue you're over-thinking it with the price manipulation and all the retail psychology.

 

If you just bought the suite next to yours overlooking Central Park and you plan on combining the two, you're already millions of dollars in. If you're furnishing your ski lodge or Idaho ranch, a similar story. A few thousand for some chic furniture isn't giving you a second thought, hell you probably gave your designer/wife a budget and they will take the path of least resistance.

 

IMHO this company is riding a wave of new-money, of which there is plenty as we've been through a 10+year bull market. And it may continue (I mean, the stock is up 10% in 2 days, so what the hell do I know :D)

 

I'd simply argue it is very difficult to build a long-term/sustainable/compounding (whatever phrase you want to use) business over 1000% markups in something like retail furniture. I can't think of a single business which has done so, perhaps jewelry is the only one which I can think comes close.

 

One may do well in the short-term here (or may not, I have no idea). But I think if your holding period is 5, 10 years then I would not want to invest here.

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^It seems we're saying essentially the same thing, but using a different perspective. The gist of it may involve to hypothetically take the opposing view's perspective before going back to the initial take.

 

-But the question here is: Will this be another Costco and how enduring is the pricing power based on loyalty, which is largely based on emotion?

Whenever I get to discuss Costco's pricing levels, it seems that people, in general, think that they are getting much lower prices vs other alternatives, which, when looking at the total bill, doesn't seem to agree with a rational analysis. Costco's brand has been associated with economies of scale and cost reduction along the supply chain and some of the saved costs are passed to the customers but some of it is 'invested' elsewhere: better employee wages and others. The point I want to make is that Costco has built an enduring pricing power which is unrelated to the cost advantage but closely aligned with an enduring customer loyalty, to a degree that RH has not and IMO will not reach. Also, taking advantage of pricing power is to be handled with care as short-term thinking may result in the destruction of the moat that remains fragile.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/22/hooked-how-costco-turns-customers-into-fanatics.html

Interesting piece on Costco and the "fanatics" with a comment by Mr. Sinegal related to the risk related to the temptation to overuse pricing power which is a risk that RH appears to stretch with the unusual mark-ups, even taking into account the 'special' features of the customer segment.

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Cigarbutt,

 

My Louis Vuitton comment was (partially) a joke, but that's what you should be looking at - not Costco. Maybe Tiffany's would be another comp.

 

I'd think RH aspires to be a premium brand with all the Napa Valley, Chicago, NYC accoutrements. For that it should be either building its own premium product brand or selling premium product brands ( get those Natuzzi sofas dudes! ).

 

If they just markup Chinese furniture up the wazoo, at some point the image of the restau-stores and the quality of the furniture will collide. And the superrich will leave. IMO you can't just IKEA or Costco the rich. Sure, there are (crappy) interior designers and Queen of Versailles ( http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2125666/ ) rich who will fill their houses with Chinese-made bling. But it's a fickle and possibly limited clientele to play to.

 

Moving to the high quality, brand, art furniture has its own set of issues to navigate. I think they gonna try to live in and fill the area of premium, but not superexclusive furniture. If they have good/great people and good process, they probably can source products/quality/brands to stay attractive and relevant. It's not gonna be easy, but possible. We'll see.

 

Edit: Lynches (as in Peter Lynch and his wife) ordered custom furniture for their house(s). Which is now on display at https://www.pem.org/press-news/pem-debuts-first-exhibition-of-the-lynch-collection-of-american-art . That's what I call good furniture and interior design by superrich. ;)

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I was in Miami a few months ago.

 

A friend took me to Coral Gables & we wound up in a furniture store.

 

There was nothing remarkable about the store except the furniture.

 

It was all new, all hard wood, with nice designs & all very affordable.

 

6 years ago, when I built my house, I bought a full living room, dining & master bedroom at Rooms2Go for around $11K.

 

I could've gotten hard wood instead of composite for about the same price.

 

I'm curious as to how many of these type stores are scattered in RH's markets?

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Maybe we overthink this and this stock is simply a Weschler/ Combs momentum play which may be dumped already at this point.

 

Is there any indication that this is a Buffett buy?

 

Yea I continue to be amazed by, and to a certain extent still overestimate the degree to which certain investors, particularly value investors, regularly fail to appreciate a situation for what it is or more exactly, place WAYYYYY too much weight on certain quadrants of an investment equation. Typically it's balance sheet/income statement related. They evaluate things as if those items are 100% of the equation, when in reality they are just a piece of it.

 

Perhaps this "trade" shows proof that some of the guys at Berkshire are starting to figure out the markets again.

 

 

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I could've gotten hard wood instead of composite for about the same price.

 

I'm curious as to how many of these type stores are scattered in RH's markets?

 

Usually none:

 

It is more expensive to transport good, quality wood into San Francisco or NYC, compared to, say, Missouri.

It is more expensive to find a few thousand sqft of space for a workshop in those areas.

And it is more difficult to find a woodworker in these areas, vs a banker or a tech guy.

But, it's a lot easier to ship something from China to NYC or SF than it is to Missouri.

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Maybe we overthink this and this stock is simply a Weschler/ Combs momentum play which may be dumped already at this point.

 

Is there any indication that this is a Buffett buy?

 

Yea I continue to be amazed by, and to a certain extent still overestimate the degree to which certain investors, particularly value investors, regularly fail to appreciate a situation for what it is or more exactly, place WAYYYYY too much weight on certain quadrants of an investment equation. Typically it's balance sheet/income statement related. They evaluate things as if those items are 100% of the equation, when in reality they are just a piece of it.

 

Perhaps this "trade" shows proof that some of the guys at Berkshire are starting to figure out the markets again.

 

Call it a hobby?

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Maybe we overthink this and this stock is simply a Weschler/ Combs momentum play which may be dumped already at this point.

 

Is there any indication that this is a Buffett buy?

 

Are there examples of Todd and Ted being short-term, momentum oriented?

 

Are there examples of Buffett buying furniture companies?...... ;D

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Maybe we overthink this and this stock is simply a Weschler/ Combs momentum play which may be dumped already at this point.

 

Is there any indication that this is a Buffett buy?

 

Are there examples of Todd and Ted being short-term, momentum oriented?

 

Are there examples of Buffett buying furniture companies?...... ;D

 

This doesn't strike me as a Buffett investment, and Gary Friedman doesn't strike me as Buffett's kind of jockey (even if he's starting to quote Buffett and trying to build a high ROIC narrative). And if it was, why wouldn't he have simply bought the whole company?

 

Most of BRK's furniture retail investments were regional acquisitions where I'm guessing he was able to get at a very favorable price.

Screen_Shot_2019-11-22_at_10_16.30_AM.png.e7d855f26df514ef830f3b1cde7b3b33.png

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I could've gotten hard wood instead of composite for about the same price.

 

I'm curious as to how many of these type stores are scattered in RH's markets?

 

Usually none:

 

It is more expensive to transport good, quality wood into San Francisco or NYC, compared to, say, Missouri.

It is more expensive to find a few thousand sqft of space for a workshop in those areas.

And it is more difficult to find a woodworker in these areas, vs a banker or a tech guy.

But, it's a lot easier to ship something from China to NYC or SF than it is to Missouri.

 

You can actually buy quality wood furniture in Jordan's (another Berkshire furniture store company) although they also have composite/veneer stuff, so you have to look and check. And it's likely that cheaper composite is more prevalent.

 

They don't have upscale restaur-chik-experience though.

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Maybe we overthink this and this stock is simply a Weschler/ Combs momentum play which may be dumped already at this point.

 

Is there any indication that this is a Buffett buy?

 

Are there examples of Todd and Ted being short-term, momentum oriented?

 

Are there examples of Buffett buying furniture companies?...... ;D

 

This doesn't strike me as a Buffett investment, and Gary Friedman doesn't strike me as Buffett's kind of jockey (even if he's starting to quote Buffett and trying to build a high ROIC narrative). And if it was, why wouldn't he have simply bought the whole company?

 

Most of BRK's furniture retail investments were regional acquisitions where I'm guessing he was able to get at a very favorable price.

 

RoomsToGo would've made sense as a WEB buy.

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Cigarbutt,

 

My Louis Vuitton comment was (partially) a joke, but that's what you should be looking at - not Costco. Maybe Tiffany's would be another comp.

 

I'd think RH aspires to be a premium brand with all the Napa Valley, Chicago, NYC accoutrements. For that it should be either building its own premium product brand or selling premium product brands ( get those Natuzzi sofas dudes! ).

 

If they just markup Chinese furniture up the wazoo, at some point the image of the restau-stores and the quality of the furniture will collide. And the superrich will leave. IMO you can't just IKEA or Costco the rich. Sure, there are (crappy) interior designers and Queen of Versailles ( http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2125666/ ) rich who will fill their houses with Chinese-made bling. But it's a fickle and possibly limited clientele to play to.

 

Moving to the high quality, brand, art furniture has its own set of issues to navigate. I think they gonna try to live in and fill the area of premium, but not superexclusive furniture. If they have good/great people and good process, they probably can source products/quality/brands to stay attractive and relevant. It's not gonna be easy, but possible. We'll see.

 

Edit: Lynches (as in Peter Lynch and his wife) ordered custom furniture for their house(s). Which is now on display at https://www.pem.org/press-news/pem-debuts-first-exhibition-of-the-lynch-collection-of-american-art . That's what I call good furniture and interior design by superrich. ;)

---Tiffany's is indeed a relevant comparison point but Tiffany's:

-'stores' do not define the essence of the brand, they're only a conduit for the sale of the branded products which have a forever feeling.

-manufactures most of the products and have been careful not to outsource the high-end exclusive items.

-despite the above premium label, has had recurrent questioning around the extension of their offerings to include more mass items, with unconvincing results (unlike ULTA who is an atypical and unusual example of a retailer maintaining credibility while simultaneously trying to reach various levels of customers).

-may soon celebrate a wedding with a partner that will refocus on the premium market, with a global scale.

 

So, for that part, unless Micheal Lewis writes Breakfast at Restoration Hardware's and RH starts to manufacture its own products, I doubt RH's ability and capacity to maintain premium pricing power in an enduring way.

A link to somebody reflecting on Tiffany's pricing power:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/luxury-pricing-austerity-tiffany-co-story-amit-mohan-singh

 

---The Versailles reference is interesting because that word reminds me of a period when people confused finesse, flamboyance and grotesque with fiscal overreach leading to quantitative easing (it was not called that way then) and which eventually squeezed the typical clientele that RH would try to attend to. As the initiator of this thread, I have some moderating responsibility but there is now an 'apartment' with an amazing view on Central Park that reflects an eerie resemblance. Micheal Lewis also wrote The Money Culture; some people suggested that he had not reached maturity as an author, in terms of writing style, but, from a content point of view, that book did a good job at describing the potential outcomes of excessive ambition and folly. ;)

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Cigarbutt,

 

My Louis Vuitton comment was (partially) a joke, but that's what you should be looking at - not Costco. Maybe Tiffany's would be another comp.

 

I'd think RH aspires to be a premium brand with all the Napa Valley, Chicago, NYC accoutrements. For that it should be either building its own premium product brand or selling premium product brands ( get those Natuzzi sofas dudes! ).

 

If they just markup Chinese furniture up the wazoo, at some point the image of the restau-stores and the quality of the furniture will collide. And the superrich will leave. IMO you can't just IKEA or Costco the rich. Sure, there are (crappy) interior designers and Queen of Versailles ( http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2125666/ ) rich who will fill their houses with Chinese-made bling. But it's a fickle and possibly limited clientele to play to.

 

Moving to the high quality, brand, art furniture has its own set of issues to navigate. I think they gonna try to live in and fill the area of premium, but not superexclusive furniture. If they have good/great people and good process, they probably can source products/quality/brands to stay attractive and relevant. It's not gonna be easy, but possible. We'll see.

 

Edit: Lynches (as in Peter Lynch and his wife) ordered custom furniture for their house(s). Which is now on display at https://www.pem.org/press-news/pem-debuts-first-exhibition-of-the-lynch-collection-of-american-art . That's what I call good furniture and interior design by superrich. ;)

---Tiffany's is indeed a relevant comparison point but Tiffany's:

-'stores' do not define the essence of the brand, they're only a conduit for the sale of the branded products which have a forever feeling.

-manufactures most of the products and have been careful not to outsource the high-end exclusive items.

-despite the above premium label, has had recurrent questioning around the extension of their offerings to include more mass items, with unconvincing results (unlike ULTA who is an atypical and unusual example of a retailer maintaining credibility while simultaneously trying to reach various levels of customers).

-may soon celebrate a wedding with a partner that will refocus on the premium market, with a global scale.

 

So, for that part, unless Micheal Lewis writes Breakfast at Restoration Hardware's and RH starts to manufacture its own products, I doubt RH's ability and capacity to maintain premium pricing power in an enduring way.

A link to somebody reflecting on Tiffany's pricing power:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/luxury-pricing-austerity-tiffany-co-story-amit-mohan-singh

 

---The Versailles reference is interesting because that word reminds me of a period when people confused finesse, flamboyance and grotesque with fiscal overreach leading to quantitative easing (it was not called that way then) and which eventually squeezed the typical clientele that RH would try to attend to. As the initiator of this thread, I have some moderating responsibility but there is now an 'apartment' with an amazing view on Central Park that reflects an eerie resemblance. Micheal Lewis also wrote The Money Culture; some people suggested that he had not reached maturity as an author, in terms of writing style, but, from a content point of view, that book did a good job at describing the potential outcomes of excessive ambition and folly. ;)

 

I concur.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Basically a more of the same quarter.

Revenues up, inventories down, profitability up and leverage measures down. What's not to like?

Conceptually, they are planning to continue on climbing the luxury mountain. Next step: Paris, London and the "adjoining" countries.

I think they should try Milan.

On the call, they referred to the correlation between their concept stores (they don't really call them stores, the sites are showrooms) and the Apple platform concept. Their moat is still based on the definition of their brand as an intermediate with taste and style.

Opinion unchanged.

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