Broeb22 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I could have sworn there was a thread on this company, but I couldn't find one. Anyways, ADW Capital is pretty excited about this one. EVI_by_ADW.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crastogi Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I am sorry, but that link is not working for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 There is a good short write-up on VIC about EVI, have to say, I tend to agree with the shorts on this one. The valuation on this company just doesn't make any sense to me. I think ADW and Greenhaven have a cult following of people who invest alongside them without a lot of thought and that drives up the stock prices of the companies they push (which incidentally is probably where a lot of their returns come from), but if you stick around long enough, you find out that the thesis just isn't that solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 There is a good short write-up on VIC about EVI, have to say, I tend to agree with the shorts on this one. The valuation on this company just doesn't make any sense to me. I think ADW and Greenhaven have a cult following of people who invest alongside them without a lot of thought and that drives up the stock prices of the companies they push (which incidentally is probably where a lot of their returns come from), but if you stick around long enough, you find out that the thesis just isn't that solid. This one? Value_Investors_Club___EVI_INDUSTRIES_INC_EVI.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 There is some really challenging 10-K copying and pasting in there, but a lot of it is just unsubstantiated opinion, i.e. EVI CEO says that, I say he's lying. At the end of the day, do you believe the spending on SG&A is being wasted or not? This guy thinks it is but gives not much objective evidence to support it. The argument about market size is a good one and a risk I think is real but this guy again provides no data to refute his claim that ADW's 6 billion figure is way too high. Certainly there are more coherent bear arguments that exist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saleen998 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 There is a good short write-up on VIC about EVI, have to say, I tend to agree with the shorts on this one. The valuation on this company just doesn't make any sense to me. I think ADW and Greenhaven have a cult following of people who invest alongside them without a lot of thought and that drives up the stock prices of the companies they push (which incidentally is probably where a lot of their returns come from), but if you stick around long enough, you find out that the thesis just isn't that solid. I'd have to agree. I think there is a very strong herd mentality among many value investors. In addition to EVI, look at companies like The Joint, Paysign (formerly 3Pea International), and Bluelinx, all of which are recent examples of companies whose stock prices skyrocketed soon after they started appearing in well-known investor letters and VIC articles. Naturally, it appears that these were smart investments before everyone started writing about them. Of course, it may turn out that even after appreciating on the order of 1000% in a short period, they were/are great investments, and doubtless there are very smart people on here who would make that argument. But of course the promotion was a significant factor in the rapid stock price ascension of these companies, and, in my personal opinion, helped cause a sizable group of "value investors" to drive the prices to unreasonably high levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 You're saying there is a herd of value lemmings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalg Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Interesting that ADW issued a press release with a public link to their presentation, and hosted an "analyst day." That seems a bit promotional to me, and it also seems odd that a shareholder would host an investor day and not the company. They make it sound like they are a long term holder, so I'm not sure why they would need to promote the company in the short term. Maybe they are looking for an exit or near term liquidity? Stock has been hit quite a bit between yesterday and today, down close to 20% on above average volume no news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwtorock Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Interesting that ADW issued a press release with a public link to their presentation, and hosted an "analyst day." That seems a bit promotional to me, and it also seems odd that a shareholder would host an investor day and not the company. They make it sound like they are a long term holder, so I'm not sure why they would need to promote the company in the short term. Maybe they are looking for an exit or near term liquidity? Stock has been hit quite a bit between yesterday and today, down close to 20% on above average volume no news. pump and dump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 It's amazing how much EVI ran up in 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 I think if you were a fly on the wall at ADW, there would be a specific strategy discussion of how they can get people to "buy" into the story of these under the radar stocks and create huge value for their returns without the business ever getting better. This is also the case at Greenhaven. There is no reason that EVI should be worth 500m. But, I am an extreme cynic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 I don't wanna speculate about motives, I really appreciate their letters. The narrative on EVI is intriguing, but I don't see how paying 400m USD for an unproven roll-up makes sense. I went through the ADW presentation, and even though I didn't come across anything that seemed egregious on its own, there's just a ton of assumptions/and or things that needs to go right. Doesn't seem like a low hurdle to clear. I also suppose it could get ugly at the exit, if/when ADW/Greenhaven gets redemptions/decides to sell off in highly valued story stocks. EVI is espescially interesting in that the stock is the currency to finance the roll-up, so there's some reflexivity to the case as well - not much different than what happened to yielcos, MLP's etc. When the stocks went down, the growth narrative broke down (I actually think that was good for those Companies longer term). So if EVI goes down, acquisitions will be harder to do, and what happens to those owner/operators that took pay in overvalued stock? Will they start selling indiscriminately when their lockup expires, or will they just be pissed they accepted to get somewhat paid in what might be overvalued stock? Bottom line, narrative is intriguing, can't get comfortable with the numbers, and as the last two trading sessions has shown it can quickly get ugly. Hope it works out, but I'd be fine jumping onboard later on if the numbers starts matching the narrative (and valuation was reasonable...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deepdive Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 I think if you were a fly on the wall at ADW, there would be a specific strategy discussion of how they can get people to "buy" into the story of these under the radar stocks and create huge value for their returns without the business ever getting better. This is also the case at Greenhaven. There is no reason that EVI should be worth 500m. But, I am an extreme cynic... How much of ADW's historical returns is from this? I can imagine a nice CAGR when stocks go from single digits to $50s, at least until they go back below $10. Are they still in IDW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deepdive Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 EVI and IDW conjure up images of a pyromaniac walking into a crowded theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 EVI and IDW conjure up images of a pyromaniac walking into a crowded theater When ADW's EVI position represents 1/3 of his fund's assets, he has been consistently buying since late 2016, and from what I can see has never sold a share, it is hard to argue that he is anything but sincere in believing this company is a long-term investment for him. Based on his purchase prices, EVI likely drove a lot of his returns in 2017, but has been a drag on his performance the last two years. As an aside, why is it wrong or "promotional" for a long-term holder of a business to present their research publicly but not wrong for a short-term driven activist to present their research? Does someone publicly presenting their research automatically mean they have ulterior or short-term profit motives just because many people who present their research publicly have short-term profit motives? Wouldn't someone be highly hypocritical and tarnish their reputation if they named their presentation "Using up one of our punches" (in reference to Buffett's punch card) to pump and dump a stock like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalg Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 It looks like ADW was a recent seller: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/65312/000138713120001209/evi-sc13ga_123119.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Eriksen Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 And another lousy quarter where management spins everything as great. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/65312/000117494720000134/ex99-1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 What I find interesting is that ADW was a seller of this stock and IDWM, both of which have been long-term position that are at their lows. I wonder if there is a big redemption there. I mean, I think selling both of these crappy businesses is the right decision, but after giving a very public presentation on EVI, they are selling shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 1ion Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 What I find interesting is that ADW was a seller of this stock and IDWM, both of which have been long-term position that are at their lows. I wonder if there is a big redemption there. I mean, I think selling both of these crappy businesses is the right decision, but after giving a very public presentation on EVI, they are selling shortly thereafter. Also sold activist position in SIC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalg Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 There must be something going on with ADW. Last 13-F had them owning significant positions in EVI, PAR, and SIC. By now they have fully liquidated SIC and cut EVI and PAR by half (maybe more by now). Not sure why they don't report IDWM holding (maybe because IDWM is no longer SEC reporting?), but it seems pretty clear that someone has been selling that as well. As mentioned above, maybe a significant redemption? Or maybe he found another more compelling opportunity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 EVI and IDW conjure up images of a pyromaniac walking into a crowded theater Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Looks like ADW started selling EVI and PAR in Q4: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1745214/000138713120001604/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml Also interesting that the other position disclosed is FB. Not something I would have expected in ADW's portfolio given what I understand they've held in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted July 28, 2020 Author Share Posted July 28, 2020 EVI is getting killed today on what appears to be no news. Maybe a forced seller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex.N.B Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 looks like both ADW and Greenhaven Road sold out of their entire positions in this... interesting. Is the investment thesis broken in the current environment? / too much risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalg Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Wouldn't most of their customers be in hospitality and leisure businesses? Could be a difficult operating environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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