wescobrk Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 This is purely speculation but I'm inclined to put on a small position amidst the controversy over the "sexist"commercial. 70% short. A squeeze can easily bump this from $30 to $40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I definitely have a short bias towards this, however agree. Specifically with the Citron short endorsement the other day. What most dont realize is that the more exposed these things become to the premature short attacks, the more resilient they become to them, and ultimately, the longer they stay elevated and/or become prone to rip hard the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sullivcd Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Watching basketball right now and have seen multiple commercials for exercise equipment with a built in screen airing a personal trainer leading a session. No moat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I like the wife in the ad: hot but, kind is my kind ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Watching basketball right now and have seen multiple commercials for exercise equipment with a built in screen airing a personal trainer leading a session. No moat I don't understand why anyone would pay $2k for a bike. I don't understand how it has a moat, yet, according to their investor presentation, they have 94% retention and are grew 110% year over year. Within 3-5 years I see where Citron is coming from but he is crazy if he thinks this is going to $5 in the coming weeks just like he and Whitney Tilson thought Tesla was going below $100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Its a status symbol, its why people buy designer sunglasses rather than high street ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 100% correct observation wescobrk. While all the value investor fanboys often quote things about "the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term", very few actually get it. At least not in any sort of useful way and that is why they underperform greatly. Unsophisticated investors(generally speaking) are unknowingly the voting machine. Sophisticated investors, largely think and convince themselves they are the weighing machine because they bust out the calculators and spreadsheets and run DCF analysis and all that mumbo jumbo. The unsophisticated tread water until the tide goes out, and the weighing machine crowd sits around underperforming, clueless as to why. The real opportunities are when the two converge; aka a catalyst. Others call it timing. If you are looking to short Peloton, wait til theres a catalyst. Until then you'll just ride the wave of the voting machine; which if I had to guess, is probably up, short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artha158 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I bought a Peloton and love it. I use it about 5-6 days a week. Wide variety of instructors and levels for everyone. I find the workouts challenging. The customer base is very loyal to the product. Especially during the cold winter months it's far easier to workout using my Peloton then go to the gym early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chesko182 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Watching basketball right now and have seen multiple commercials for exercise equipment with a built in screen airing a personal trainer leading a session. No moat I don't understand why anyone would pay $2k for a bike. I don't understand how it has a moat, yet, according to their investor presentation, they have 94% retention and are grew 110% year over year. Within 3-5 years I see where Citron is coming from but he is crazy if he thinks this is going to $5 in the coming weeks just like he and Whitney Tilson thought Tesla was going below $100. from what I understand, the 94% retention is very inflated because they were locking in customers for 12-18 months with special offers/free trials so when those subs come off that window there should be a pretty significant increase in churn. Source and disclaimer: I read this on Twitter from multiple people who follow it more closely than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest brisbane Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I bought a Peloton and love it. I use it about 5-6 days a week. Wide variety of instructors and levels for everyone. I find the workouts challenging. The customer base is very loyal to the product. Especially during the cold winter months it's far easier to workout using my Peloton then go to the gym early in the morning. Agree, it's a quality product. The hardware alone is priced competitively with similar-quality bikes, and the all-in monthly cost (assuming you are taking advantage of the 0% financing offer) make a lot of sense vs. gym memberships if 2+ people are using it. A lot of people on this board (see the Restoration Hardware thread) seem to think that just because a product doesn't have value for them it doesn't have any value. A brand is a very powerful thing! I think the bigger issue is how faddish it is, macroeconomic/demographic tailwinds to support growth, how many people will continue to use the bike for 5+ years, etc... But I don't see it being displaced easily by a competitor. There are scale benefits to acquiring music rights and talent, building a huge content library of on-demand rides, and for many people (not myself) the community is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrispy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 My wife and I bought one, canceled our gym membership, and are enjoying it for all of the reasons described above. Peloton has become synonymous with home workouts with instructors. How much of a fad is the $$$ question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Boomers, it's a lifestyle brand/media platform/network/saas business, just like go pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest brisbane Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Boomers, it's a lifestyle brand/media platform/network/saas business, just like go pro. Go Pro was a SaaS business? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I looked into Peloton's numbers and report that it won't stay on the watchlist. Some people do benefit from the external reinforcement of a 'community' but wonder how this kind of specific moat can be maintained. Training has been, and will be, a matter of hype, to a large and recurrent extent. Two weeks ago, I set up my TACX trainer (bought years and years ago at 249$ CDN) and, over the years, have tried different setups + or - online connections or screens. This year's setup is the ideal one, at least for me. Although less than 5% of time spent on the saddle is achieved inside, the orientation of the stationary bike is best lined up with a window, through which I can visualize what it's going to be like for real in a few weeks, out there in the wild. My humble experience when paths cross with 'community' training enthusiasts is that they like to talk about the value of their bikes and are usually OK with short and high intensity segments although they typically are no challenge when any kind of endurance is concerned. It seems to me that training, pretty much like investing, is best done alone. Riding with the peloton is fun but there's nothing like being able to detach and forget about the crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nspo Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 100% correct observation wescobrk. While all the value investor fanboys often quote things about "the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term", very few actually get it. At least not in any sort of useful way and that is why they underperform greatly. Unsophisticated investors(generally speaking) are unknowingly the voting machine. Sophisticated investors, largely think and convince themselves they are the weighing machine because they bust out the calculators and spreadsheets and run DCF analysis and all that mumbo jumbo. The unsophisticated tread water until the tide goes out, and the weighing machine crowd sits around underperforming, clueless as to why. The real opportunities are when the two converge; aka a catalyst. Others call it timing. If you are looking to short Peloton, wait til theres a catalyst. Until then you'll just ride the wave of the voting machine; which if I had to guess, is probably up, short term. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misterkrusty Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Peloton has a lockup expiration coming up on March 24th, which will increase the float from ~40M to 280M shares. That might be a catalyst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrispy Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 No thoughts on the stock but I am very happy to have this bike at home right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Read the Footnotes Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 No thoughts on the stock but I am very happy to have this bike at home right now There's still time. Andrew Left has a plan for how you can still get one delivered to your door from Amazon for $12. This should still be possible in spite of the pandemic. https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Citron-Research-Presents-Peloton-Investors-Pedaling-Themselves-into-Frenzy.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Great product with a moat that shorts love to hate but customers swear by. Reminds me of a certain EV company. One problem I have w co is the management incentive plan that effectively allows for 5% dilution a year for 10 years. They also pulled lockup back to February. Suspicious actions, not very shareholder oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/peloton-pton-reports-fiscal-q3-2020-earnings.html This co will only come out of this crisis stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 I was tempted but ultimately did not pull the trigger before because I don't understand it. I think I'm going to order a bike for my mother, and see what it's all about - however, has anyone tried the product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricSchleien Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 I was tempted but ultimately did not pull the trigger before because I don't understand it. I think I'm going to order a bike for my mother, and see what it's all about - however, has anyone tried the product? yup, it came with my apartment. we have a peloton studio. the bikes are great. its the only cardio I've ever been able to stick to in my entire life, I hate cardio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ratiman Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 This reminds me of Herbalife. The shorts are all cheap introverts and don't understand that most people need human reinforcement, eg a coach or a class to lose weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoRaptorsFan Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 I never bought the stock but own a Peloton bike. I use it about 5 times a week. I'm definitely a fan of the product. If you find an instructor(s) you like then you'll be more motivated to use the bike. I usually turn off the leaderboard settings which for a lot of people they like for motivation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now