PTON - Peloton

[Broeb22]

1 hour ago, kab60 said:

Greenwood if IIRC, smelled like capitulation to me... Lots of 'value' guys seemed to look for 'excuses' to get on the momo train after underperforming for long... At what seems llke the worst time

Hey I’ll be the first one to admit I capitulated from the value approach to a more growth oriented a couple years ago and I gotta say my returns are a LOT better and I’m off the idea treadmill because I own businesses that generally make their own luck.

But fortunately I’m still enough of a skeptic to see something like Peloton for what it is...

[Gregmal]

Yea I mean it is always admirable(and optimal) to try to see the correct side of a trade or investment, irrespective of whatever "your" process is. When you are wrong enough, its ideal to revisit your process and see which inputs are faulty....so with all that said in some cases its understandable for folks to evolve as investors. Its a good thing. But the danger is in the delusion that can be created. Convincing yourself that 1) this time is different, 2) the mother of all breeding grounds for fads is irrelevant, 3) that just cuz you slap a recurring revenue theme on something that using a revenue multiple is OK, and 4) that covid did not pump these types of businesses to the moon in terms of peak profit/customers, as well as sentiment and status.....I mean those are some really friggin crazy bridges one needs to get over. And one must be really desperate or determined to continue crossing one outlandish bridge after another to still get to the place one needs to get to in order to justify a real "investment" in something like this. If you are trading the momo, thats different and all fine and dandy; but for a professional manager to actually convince themselves this is a great long term investment....IDK man..LOL thats embarrassing. If one thought it was a wonderful/super cheap business; where were you at $25? Its like Palantir....notice how everyone now loves it in the 20s after passing on it at $10? People always see what they want to see. This is what creates market cycles. These people better hope theres another leg of suckers willing to take it off their hands at higher prices, although personally I feel the bubble has already popped and is now just steadily and slowly deflating. The further down things go the more bag holders you have on top of you waiting to sell the next spike higher. 

[Spekulatius]

^ LOL, I thought the valuation was a stretch for PLTR at ~$10 and I am certainly not buying it at $20, at least not with current fundamentals. I do think it is an interesting business and just since it is controversial it is probably destined to become cheap from time to time.

Or perhaps it stays expensive forever, but then there is no penalty for no called strikes.

PTON never interested me as a business, because the home gym equipment industry is fad driven. While I think the subscription component adds an interesting twist, it is ultimately likely a fad too, at least to some extend. I do think it is going to have a long tail.

I am sort of hoping to buy a second hand Peloton bike cheaply one day for my home gym. I do think it is a good product and I liked to take cycling classes years ago, when I was with 24h Fitness but think this could be done better via the Peloton platform where I don’t  have to be on a fixed schedule.

Edited May 8, 2021 by Spekulatius

[Jurgis]

On 5/8/2021 at 2:32 PM, Spekulatius said:

PTON never interested me as a business, because the home gym equipment industry is fad driven. While I think the subscription component adds an interesting twist, it is ultimately likely a fad too, at least to some extend. I do think it is going to have a long tail.

I am sort of hoping to buy a second hand Peloton bike cheaply one day for my home gym. I do think it is a good product and I liked to take cycling classes years ago, when I was with 24h Fitness but think this could be done better via the Peloton platform where I don’t  have to be on a fixed schedule.

These two paragraphs sound inconsistent. In the first you claim it's a fad. In second, you say that you'd like to take their classes. You can't have it both ways. If it's a fad, then why would you or others want to take their classes? If you and others want to take their classes, then it's not a fad.

I think yetanothervalueblog does good job presenting pros and cons.

Personally I want https://www.mirror.co/ classes with way more AI feedback. If/when they can provide AI-driven personalized classes, that evaluate your workout and make corrections, I'm plunking down whatever they gonna ask. It's way far away from that though. It's like level 5 full-self-drive for fitness classes.

Not interested in PTON products just because I don't use fitness bike or treadmill and don't plan to.

[Gregmal]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3695379-peloton-has-a-netflixlike-subscrition-shares-may-rise-4x-in-next-4-to-5-years

 

LOL someone forgot to tell Mr. Parmesan that he's late to the bubble party. 

[blindsquirrel]

Hello everybody !  Just published a new write up on the company 

Hope you like it 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by blindsquirrel

[blindsquirrel]

Forgot to add the link 

https://blindsquirrel.substack.com/p/peloton-the-antidote-to-laziness

[Gregmal]

Insiders certainly dont seem to share the same enthusiasm. 

[gfp]

37 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Insiders certainly dont seem to share the same enthusiasm. 

Lots of insiders selling except for that one venture fund that has been buying millions of dollars worth each day.  Still lopsided towards sales as you would expect over the past 6 months.

https://www.dataroma.com/m/stock.php?sym=PTON

I normally wouldn't look twice at a $30 Billion exercise bike / subscription company but the trading setup right here is actually pretty interesting.  The stock is right at the cusp of either busting the downtrend and topping pattern or rolling back over at the neckline.  If there was a higher short interest I would want to trade this for a quick pop on the upside.  Still might dabble in it for a quick pop upwards.

[gfp]

This played out about how I expected.  I'll take my 8% and move along.  Cue quick run to 112...

[Gregmal]

I added a few puts going out to Dec/Jan. Seems the fanboys are getting desperate. The majority of the run up was fueled by things like today's JMP upgrade and story telling. Similar to when this did 15% on an index inclusion and some saw it as a major fundamental achievement. If tech stabilizes this probably will too. But in terms of a hedge with event driven features to it, this fits the bill. 

[gfp]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I added a few puts going out to Dec/Jan. Seems the fanboys are getting desperate. The majority of the run up was fueled by things like today's JMP upgrade and story telling. Similar to when this did 15% on an index inclusion and some saw it as a major fundamental achievement. If tech stabilizes this probably will too. But in terms of a hedge with event driven features to it, this fits the bill. 

Today's move is purely technical - the $100 level was awfully important for this stock in the short term either way it decided to go.  A lot of traders would have been playing that confluence of neck-line and down trend line.  Not to mention the big round number.  I looked at options to play it but they seemed expensive.

Good luck with the short long-term.  Certainly makes the Burlington Northern buyout look like a good value...

[cubsfan]

29 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Good luck with the short long-term.  Certainly makes the Burlington Northern buyout look like a good value...

+1 - HA! no kidding!!