KJP Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 This is a pretty interesting comment re: raging bull. Oddly, the founder of that website, is shutting down his hedge fund raging capital. His portfolio was hurt most by lots of shorts that will probably work out eventually, but have just crushed him the past few years. Also, his longs, generally everything. You mean longs like this: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/rtk-rentech-inc/msg292525/#msg292525 Bad memories . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misterkrusty Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 KJP- I think the comparison to FBIT and GPRO was related to the catalyst - author sees this playing out like those two names in that once revenue growth started to stall for these "unicorns", the share prices got crushed. Or maybe that was Citron's take. Can't remember. I agree this guy could do more work on the streaming margins. But then again, so could you. But it's hard. We know that music royalties - to the extent that Peleton must pay them - decrease the operating leverage in this business. But Peleton doesn't disclose the details around what it has to pay. In any event, we're seeing a total lack of operating leverage in the business overall. They're burning hefty cash. How is pointing out intense competition is "a throwaway line"? Competition matters. His comments on churn are as fact-based as they can be given the amount of disclosure from Peleton. He HAS to make an assumption (ie belief) about how the growth rate is distorting this figure. Even if you don't make an explicit assumption about the true churn, you're making an implicit one. If 16% isn't the right number, tell us why. "The author admits to having no way to estimate [TAM]? What on Earth are you talking about? The author literally walks you through his estimate step by step and backs plenty of the assumptions with facts - more facts than you gave us, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misterkrusty Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Kaegi- I never said anything to imply - or cause anyone to believe - that I look for net nets or that I ignore interest rates. Making unsupported and inane conclusions is why thou art a moron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Kaegi- I never said anything to imply - or cause anyone to believe - that I look for net nets or that I ignore interest rates. Making unsupported and inane conclusions is why thou art a moron. I know you didn't, which was the point. Just as it wouldn't be fair to make assumptions about you, it wouldn't be fair for you to make assumptions about me, especially when it's clear that you have a lack of understanding of capital markets and their connections in the background. Ever heard of cross currency swaps? Do you really think interest rates in one part of the global markets have zero impact in other parts of the world and securities pricing? But whatever, keep on calling people names - a way to really engage in a productive conversation. ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 https://www.gwinvestors.com/investor-letters/ One company that appeared to have a fairly pronounced mismatch between valuation and NPS is Peloton (PTON), which we added during the coronavirus crisis sell-off. When I first mentioned the company to Chris, he thought I was referring to a possible short candidate. Yet with a NPS of 91, the second highest in the world, I respected the power of the emerging ecosystem of this company, which has similar characteristics to most luxury businesses. It sells its stationary bikes and treadmills for about 10x the cheapest competitive offerings, yet it still manages to save its 2.6 million subscribers significant sums of cash every month. Because the value of Peloton lies in the millions of hours of content, as well as live exercise classes, the monthly subscription fee of $39 is dwarfed by the monthly bills of boutique fitness studio goers, which number over 30 million in the United States, and who pay over $30 per class for their endorphin rush. Peloton gives these subscribers unlimited classes per month for just $39, or for digital subscribers, for just $13. The company’s mission is to inspire its community to exercise more and engage with their exercise equipment at an accelerating rate. It has had great success in actually building bike and treadmill utilization over the years after purchase. This is in stark contrast to most gyms and exercise equipment which see a permanent decline in utilization after the initial honeymoon period. Despite the company, which is founder-led, being a significant beneficiary to the current pandemic, as all gyms and fitness studios remain closed, the stock was cut nearly in half in the prior three months when we had purchased our position. As the company articulated on its earnings call this week, it added record new customers to its ecosystem while also recording a record low in subscriber churn. The company’s myopic focus on increasing exercises per month and customer satisfaction allow it to build the largest, most convenient and best-valued exercise-oriented community in the world. There is now an unprecedented 7-8 week waiting list to join this rapidly growing community. We discussed the business at length in a note, which is now available on our website. https://www.gwinvestors.com/wp-content/uploads/PTON-Research-Report-April-2020-v2.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 So, just to clarify, Mr. Dalal Trump, who speaks loudly but says nothing, you are long Peloton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 So, just to clarify, Mr. Dalal Trump, who speaks loudly but says nothing, you are long Peloton? Hey President of Dalal Fan Club Greggie--glad to have you follow me around so loyally like a puppy! You are man's best friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 https://www.gwinvestors.com/investor-letters/ One company that appeared to have a fairly pronounced mismatch between valuation and NPS is Peloton (PTON), which we added during the coronavirus crisis sell-off. When I first mentioned the company to Chris, he thought I was referring to a possible short candidate. Yet with a NPS of 91, the second highest in the world, I respected the power of the emerging ecosystem of this company, which has similar characteristics to most luxury businesses. It sells its stationary bikes and treadmills for about 10x the cheapest competitive offerings, yet it still manages to save its 2.6 million subscribers significant sums of cash every month. Because the value of Peloton lies in the millions of hours of content, as well as live exercise classes, the monthly subscription fee of $39 is dwarfed by the monthly bills of boutique fitness studio goers, which number over 30 million in the United States, and who pay over $30 per class for their endorphin rush. Peloton gives these subscribers unlimited classes per month for just $39, or for digital subscribers, for just $13. The company’s mission is to inspire its community to exercise more and engage with their exercise equipment at an accelerating rate. It has had great success in actually building bike and treadmill utilization over the years after purchase. This is in stark contrast to most gyms and exercise equipment which see a permanent decline in utilization after the initial honeymoon period. Despite the company, which is founder-led, being a significant beneficiary to the current pandemic, as all gyms and fitness studios remain closed, the stock was cut nearly in half in the prior three months when we had purchased our position. As the company articulated on its earnings call this week, it added record new customers to its ecosystem while also recording a record low in subscriber churn. The company’s myopic focus on increasing exercises per month and customer satisfaction allow it to build the largest, most convenient and best-valued exercise-oriented community in the world. There is now an unprecedented 7-8 week waiting list to join this rapidly growing community. We discussed the business at length in a note, which is now available on our website. https://www.gwinvestors.com/wp-content/uploads/PTON-Research-Report-April-2020-v2.pdf I've seen Steven Wood present enough far-fetched bull theses that I no longer look to his research as particularly useful. He's a brilliant promoter with subpar investment results (see attachment). He compares his results to the MSCI ACWI which may be appropriate given what and where he's investing, but if you're a US-based investor, the MSCI ACWI has underperformed the S&P by 4.5% annually since 2010, so his results which lag the MSCI, are even worse if you compare against the S&P. He's lagged by 6.3% annually since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 I was curious if Left changed his thesis from $5 a share. I did a quick internet search and he gave an interview to TD Ameritrade (search you tube under stay at home trade) he now thinks it is worth $8 instead of $5. He is obviously a successful guy but his track record I'm skeptical of. I don't understand why Ackman, Left and others are so public with their shorts? They can only make 100% (assuming not using puts) yet they have infinite losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 I was curious if Left changed his thesis from $5 a share. I did a quick internet search and he gave an interview to TD Ameritrade (search you tube under stay at home trade) he now thinks it is worth $8 instead of $5. He is obviously a successful guy but his track record I'm skeptical of. I don't understand why Ackman, Left and others are so public with their shorts? They can only make 100% (assuming not using puts) yet they have infinite losses. Lol, a 60% growth in value over a few months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winjitsu Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Biden rides a Peloton. I'm long 8) Now, nearly every morning, Biden spins through an early Peloton ride in the upstairs weight room, dresses (formally, no sweatpants), drinks his breakfast shake, and sits at the phone in his study awaiting the latest updates on the world’s misery. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/joe-biden-presidential-plans.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Mostly useless anecdote but for $12.99 a month you're hard pressed to find a better fitness app than Peleton's. Their platform is quite good and everyone I've talked to that has it has said they love it. Can't remember the last time I was on a bicycle but they have classes for everything, including some excellent muscle specific workouts that can be done at home. Whether we can justify a $12B valuation with a couple million people paying $12.99 a month I doubt, but I have to imagine there's a much bigger market for high quality fitness classes and targeted workouts at $12.99 a month than there is for bikes + $40 a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Mostly useless anecdote but for $12.99 a month you're hard pressed to find a better fitness app than Peleton's. Their platform is quite good and everyone I've talked to that has it has said they love it. Can't remember the last time I was on a bicycle but they have classes for everything, including some excellent muscle specific workouts that can be done at home. Whether we can justify a $12B valuation with a couple million people paying $12.99 a month I doubt, but I have to imagine there's a much bigger market for high quality fitness classes and targeted workouts at $12.99 a month than there is for bikes + $40 a month. Lol but did u read the VIC writeup doe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misterkrusty Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Pelagic- i don't disagree. Frankly, I think Peloton will be around for a long time and even at a $1 billion valuation it would be an impressive success story. Not that it matters, but I prefer to do group classes in person because the public shame of slacking off is the biggest motivator I have to get fit. I guess that's what the "leaderboard" does for some people. Just curious - if someone in a Peloton class is slacking off, does the instructor ever call them out? MK (currently trying to self-motivate to go run up some hills around here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misterkrusty Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 https://robintrack.net/symbol/PTON stuck-at-home millenials + no trading fees + no sports to bet on = Dalal Holdings looks like a genius Back in 1999 I was telling folks on the Motley Fool to cash in their dot com stocks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 https://robintrack.net/symbol/BRK.B https://robintrack.net/symbol/TLF Confirmation bias--it's a helluva drug. Your data source might be confounded by the simple fact that there are more users on Robinhood in general, but wut do I know. Keep using that Robintrack to confirm your preconceived theories. Gotta love value investors who trick themselves with deeply flawed analysis... BTW good luck with that TLF. I hear leathered goods are gonna make a comeback any day now...gonna be just as popular as Pelotons with the upper middle class types...any day now... No wonder value investing is "dead" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misterkrusty Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 "value investing is dead" now where have I heard that before? when the marginal bid in your stock is @TommyCheesebal3 or @fantasywhore and their thesis is #StayAtHomeStock it's time to cash in your chips. In the short run, dumb luck works just fine, but long-term you need brains to win this game. https://twitter.com/search?q=%24pton&src=typed_query Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 "value investing is dead" now where have I heard that before? when the marginal bid in your stock is @TommyCheesebal3 or @fantasywhore and their thesis is #StayAtHomeStock it's time to cash in your chips. In the short run, dumb luck works just fine, but long-term you need brains to win this game. https://twitter.com/search?q=%24pton&src=typed_query More astute analysis and insights! This right here surely sinks the bull thesis! For the record, value investing ain’t dead, but many people who claim to be value investors do not know how to spot value! Where my boy Einhorn at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 when this IPO’d I read the S-1 and talked to a lot of my friends with the bikes. My gut was the TAM was lower than projected because of cost but the pushback I received on the value proposition relative to alternatives led me to conclude this had more potential than my gut reaction. Of course any kind of quantitative attempt at valuing the earnings as a sum of the subscription revenue at a very generous multiple and the 30% margin durable good that doesn’t need to be replaced for a long time at a low multiple led me to conclude it was pricing in pretty wide adoption, but I came away with the view that wide adoption was definitely a node in the probability tree and a higher probability than most would assume. my wife wants a Soulcycle bike because "they don't ride to the beat" at Peloton...but Soulcycle can't seem to get their act together/manufacture and distribute. given our household Soulcycle expenditures the IRR on a Peloton purchase would be high. we've had a Soulcycle bike for about a month now (it's like a Taycan, more expensive and less popular than a Tesla but maybe extra smugness points). We have ridden 22 times in the past month (5 for pupil and 17 for the more fit mrs. pupil). If we did this at soulcycle, we would have spent $600. now pre-covid we only did 1 class every week or 2 so it's not a real comparison. i haven't tried any of the other Variis workouts that come with the subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Well I guess this is riding the ZM gravy train today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/community/attachments/well-that-escalated-quickly-4306795-png.10372/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Well I guess this is riding the ZM gravy train today... Going good into earnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 I wrote about this when it was at $25 and before the pandemic and I thought the person shorting it was an idiot even after the pandemic he only revised his short from $5 a share to $8 a share. I forgot the guys name. Andrew Left? Here it is more than 10x where he said it would be. We all get calls wrong but I still don't understand how this idiot thought it would be below $10 and this was after we were shut down as a country and the government and fed were throwing helicopter money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 I wrote about this when it was at $25 and before the pandemic and I thought the person shorting it was an idiot even after the pandemic he only revised his short from $5 a share to $8 a share. I forgot the guys name. Andrew Left? Here it is more than 10x where he said it would be. We all get calls wrong but I still don't understand how this idiot thought it would be below $10 and this was after we were shut down as a country and the government and fed were throwing helicopter money. Left(I know for a fact) trades his own noise. Many of those guys do. He targets weakly held Robinhood type stocks for a reason and is usually transacting around releases. He put a short call on one of the COVID vaccine hype stocks at 20 and it's at 150 now, but likely covered when his release knocked it to 15. Theres lot of folks like this out there. EDIT: to clarify NVAX was the stock and its at $100 now, and traded as high as $190. https://citronresearch.com/citron-updates-peloton/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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