misterkrusty Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Doesn't seems promotional to me. The guy genuinely believes in this. One can read his interview with Time magazine in May of this year (https://time.com/5839552/peloton-ceo-john-foley/ ). I think he is repeating this in his head and saying the exact same thing. Entrepreneurs are like that, they have to imagine and believe in something that usual folks cannot. @patience_and_focus are you out of your mind? Just because someone repeats something does not prove that they really believe it. Yeah, Foley can "imagine and believe in something that usual folks cannot" Dude, take it easy on the kool-aid. Do you know how much acid is in that shit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Doesn't seems promotional to me. The guy genuinely believes in this. One can read his interview with Time magazine in May of this year (https://time.com/5839552/peloton-ceo-john-foley/ ). I think he is repeating this in his head and saying the exact same thing. Entrepreneurs are like that, they have to imagine and believe in something that usual folks cannot. @patience_and_focus are you out of your mind? Just because someone repeats something does not prove that they really believe it. Yeah, Foley can "imagine and believe in something that usual folks cannot" Dude, take it easy on the kool-aid. Do you know how much acid is in that shit? LOL Tech Crunch Disrupt is a great example of this. Every wide eyed coder who steps foot on stage either begins or ends with the tag line "our revolutionary tech will change the world". The world is not short on overly optimistic entrepreneurs who deeply believe in their products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D33pV4lue Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 What's the metric(s) that tell you PTON is not gaining traction with subs? I guess that's churn really, but bad churn numbers can be masked by fast growth for a while. Maybe subscription revenue growth not growing as fast as Product Revenue? TBH it is likely that you won't have normalized churn #'s for 2 years. This is just a guesstimate of mine but considering the high cost of the product and that fact that most are purchased using the 3rd party financing option (Affirm) and have 12, 24, and 39 month installments. I find it hard to believe that people will cancel their subscription while still paying for the bike. In addition >50% of the subs have been added in the last 6 months so the earliest possible subs to cancel would have had to buy in March using 12 month payment plan (I would also assume most people choose the 24 or 39). You also have to think that some people can pause their subscriptions for up to 3 months but aren't included in churn so there could be some lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 datapoints from bogleheads. 8) https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=320434&start=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 datapoints from bogleheads. 8) https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=320434&start=100 Lol. Did u read the VIC writeup doe? Boglehead quote: Happy with the purchase. It's been over a month now and we've never worked out so consistently. The right mix of classes, metrics, and simplicity make you wanting to go back for more. Good luck and see you on the leader board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Some humor for your Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Never underestimate a brand that can turn its customers into cultists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Never underestimate a brand that can turn its customers into cultists. This is a really good quote. What other brands turn customers into cultists? I can think of Tesla, Lulu, Harley Davidson (back in the days), Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xaston Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Apple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Just had my 100 rides on the Peloton and just ordered my free century ride T-shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Apple Good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Never underestimate a brand that can turn its customers into cultists. It's easy to point to the "winners" which have cult followings and say this. If you took that advice in 1999 you would likely be bankrupt. There is no shortage of cult followings for a whole host of companies. I'm not saying PTON will fail, but it's not a good way to invest imo (and I don't think you're saying that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Never underestimate a brand that can turn its customers into cultists. It's easy to point to the "winners" which have cult followings and say this. If you took that advice in 1999 you would likely be bankrupt. There is no shortage of cult followings for a whole host of companies. I'm not saying PTON will fail, but it's not a good way to invest imo (and I don't think you're saying that). This is true. Harley still has loyal cultist. But they have largely aged out and paying $30,000 for a hog does not really resonate with millennial with debt. While the product is cultist, it doesn't have a decade long run way like a Peloton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Never underestimate a brand that can turn its customers into cultists. This is a really good quote. What other brands turn customers into cultists? I can think of Tesla, Lulu, Harley Davidson (back in the days), Jury is out on Yeezy’s and Kanye but he’s trying hard on the cult side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Crushing it. Can’t keep up with demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/25/pelotons-delivery-pain-could-be-nautilus-sales-gai/ Delivery issues that have been building up throughout the pandemic for Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) could begin spilling over, hurting its own sales while helping those of rivals like Nautilus (NYSE:NLS). https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-peloton-buyers-are-sick-of-waiting-11606213803 Peloton’s smaller rivals such as Nautilus Inc. NLS 2.97% and NordicTrack maker Icon Health & Fitness Inc. may benefit from the market leader’s supply-chain woes. Nautilus, which also makes Bowflex workout systems of 1980s infomercial fame, offers lower-priced bikes and advertises a connected system compatible with Peloton’s online classes. I'm sure folks will settle for the Zune when they can't have the iPod... Bowflex! Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Added to the Nasdaq 100 I’m still waiting for the Peloton bikes to become drying racks because I was told “all exercise trends are short lived fads” and “this is just like GoPro”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Indeed. Seems like a solid fundamental development. This company has definitely proven itself to have long term staying power over the past....month or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Yeah, the bikes have only been on sale “for a month or two”. Like I said, still waiting for the drying racks. Fads tend to burn out “after a month or two” after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Yeah, the bikes have only been on sale “for a month or two”. Like I said, still waiting for the drying racks. Fads tend to burn out “after a month or two” after all. Didn't the Bowflex fad last for a few years before fizzling out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 If your thesis was that it wasnt a pandemic enhanced fad, well, there certainly hasn't been any sort of long term fundamental development that has either proven or disproven that at this point. Especially given that we are just beginning to enter the final phases of that event. The entire pandemic has spanned less than 3 quarters. But I do see how something fundamental like an index inclusion can change that... The pandemic enhanced order boost, as mentioned earlier in the thread, probably carries on for another 2 quarters worth of results due to order/delivery/fulfillment + holiday season lag. Got one of these things coming tomorrow for the wife. 5 week delivery window isn't all that bad all things considered. Execution has been solid so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Yep, this is just like Bowflex (founded in 1980s) or Beanie Babies. Load up on them shorts ! And my prediction is this company will thrive well beyond the pandemic...the stock may or may not have gotten ahead of itself for the time being, but the firm/brand has a bright future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Yep, this is just like Bowflex (founded in 1980s) or Beanie Babies. Load up on them shorts ! And my prediction is this company will thrive well beyond the pandemic...the stock may or may not have gotten ahead of itself for the time being, but the firm/brand has a bright future. In terms of the investment, thats really all that matters. I haven't encountered anyone yet who is saying anything other than "this is a pretty special/unique brand".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Yep, this is just like Bowflex (founded in 1980s) or Beanie Babies. Load up on them shorts ! And my prediction is this company will thrive well beyond the pandemic...the stock may or may not have gotten ahead of itself for the time being, but the firm/brand has a bright future. In terms of the investment, thats really all that matters. I haven't encountered anyone yet who is saying anything other than "this is a pretty special/unique brand".. I’m not gonna try to trade or overthink this too much. I sold TSLA after a 4x gain when I could have made much more. Obviously TSLA is irrationally priced for more than perfection, but generally Warren is right: never selling is the best option when you like the underlying business or a great firm/brand with staying power (which is my view of PTON). If things change and the bikes start becoming drying racks, then I’m gone. If it hits totally stratospheric, nosebleed valuations, I’d think harder about it. But not there yet as far as I’m concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Fair enough. Best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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