hyten1 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 in the the days of social media any tiny bit of (miss)information can be spread throughout the entire population in an instance especially when fear is involve. just look at NYC today, a rumor of first case in queens was supposedly reported (spread like wildfire on social media), however it has been denied by the officials. now some will say, "oh the officials are covering it up", but we have to be calm, take a deep breadth, take precaution, but lets not create a panic and create more issue than it really out to be. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/01/31/nyc-officials-deny-report-of-coronavirus-amid-confusion/#66c78e01652c some will argue official are banning people from talking about this on wechat, look the big government is at it again, a cover up, but lets take everything with grain of salt. there are good reason why this might of been done (we don't really know if it censorship or good common sense). panic can be spread very very quickly in days of iphones, social media. EDIT: my mom was at a supermarket today (regular american supermarket) while she was leaving the checkout counter, she cough (she is 80 an old chinese lady), she barely had a chance to raise her arm up to cover her mouth (she was holding 2 bags of things she bought from the supermarket). The cash out counter lady yelled at her and said, cover your month when you cough. Now this could just be normal behavior (anytime you cough you should cover your mouth), but then again this has never happen to her before, you can't but wonder why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 EDIT: my mom was at a supermarket today (regular american supermarket) while she was leaving the checkout counter, she cough (she is 80 an old chinese lady), she barely had a chance to raise her arm up to cover her mouth (she was holding 2 bags of things she bought from the supermarket). The cash out counter lady yelled at her and said, cover your month when you cough. Now this could just be normal behavior (anytime you cough you should cover your mouth), but then again this has never happen to her before, you can't but wonder why. Yes, there is some panic and panic-based racism. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-chinese-allowed-racism-and-fear-are-now-spreading-along-with-the-coronavirus-2020-01-29 :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 There will certainly be no shortage of Chinesepeoplephobia in America now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 here are some good info, if you can read it https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage?utm_source=digg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pondside47 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home The first reported case in the US seems to be gotten better. Either the virus will make a comeback or he may get discharged soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shhughes1116 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home The first reported case in the US seems to be gotten better. Either the virus will make a comeback or he may get discharged soon. Still hospitalized after 11 days, treated for pneumonia-like symptoms during his hospital stay. And this was a “mild case” presenting to the hospital because he saw the media alerts, not because he was desperate for care. Hard to draw any positive conclusions from this, aside from CDCs EOC, and state/local departments of health got some practice dealing with this while things are still quiet. The long incubation period, reports of infectivity while the carrier is asymptomatic, and the fact that re-infection seems to be possible with this virus, should be very concerning to all governments watching this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Muscleman and other with family who are affected by the Coronavirus. I apologize for my potential business-like comment. I have tried my best to avoid infection and this thread has been very informative. In the meantime, I have monetized some of the information here towards my trading. We now literally have a press release from one of my portfolio companies talking about increasing non-woven materials production for the use in masks and suits in China. Berry Global Increases Production to Aid in Coronavirus Protection https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200131005586/en/Berry-Global-Increases-Production-Aid-Coronavirus-Protection It's a bizarre world we live in. I think there will be many more corporate headlines coming soon.... I hope everyone feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 see the sometimes reliable ZH for suspicion that the virus was bio-engineered as weapon: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pondside47 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Since we have some Chinese on this forum, if you want to donate to the efforts and couldn't find way that seem reliable, Li Lu is organizing a donation effort to support cities around Wuhan that need medical equipments. http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 My sister and brother in-law flew through Beijing on their way back to Laos (Jan 18). Luckily they made it through the quarantine. They haven’t been tested yet (not available) but haven’t had any symptoms yet. They did say that public buildings and schools (at least in Vientiane) are beginning to close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Since we have some Chinese on this forum, if you want to donate to the efforts and couldn't find way that seem reliable, Li Lu is organizing a donation effort to support cities around Wuhan that need medical equipments. http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm There have been many previous cases in China (not referring to Li Lu's, but in general) where donations have gone missing or directly into the Party comrades' pockets. I am sure the Chinese govt with all its might and power can come up with the required resources on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocSnowball Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Watching closely, hoping and praying for the best from a humanitarian perspective. Glad to see lower mortality so far in non-China cases, 0 out of 98 so far. Impressed with how many value investors read medical journals! I've been wanting to rebuild my portfolio David Swensen style with around 30%-35% EM equities with at least 10% China and 10% India (currently EM is at 5% of portfolio, down from 9% earlier this month). My thought process with infectious outbreaks is to wait it out for two incubation periods of stability, which is standard practice used by public health departments (14 x 2 = 28 days here) before calling it all clear. We are a long way away from that, perhaps 1-6 months depending on how things unfold, plus whatever happens on other fronts in the interim. Still, once this runs through China, that may be a good bet in the longer term. Wonder how others are using these developments to think about asset allocation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I was reviewing some information with a couple folks for a portfolio company today, and of distinct notation was a recent corporate action taken. We were trying to pin down where this came from. After a bit of analysis, the read was that the move was made out of weakness rather than strength. This was determined because the CEO is a bit of a character, and a boastful, boisterous cheerleader. It was concluded that his reasoning for action had to be to fill a need that was expected to be filled elsewhere, but didn't materialize. How did we know? Because if it had, he would have announced it a few minutes later.... Same sort of deducing can be used here. I dont doubt all of the ground work details, and I sympathize with those effected, but am of the belief that what we are hearing about and its impacts on us here in the US of A, are entirely blown out of proportion and unwarranted. Yes, China may play games with their news outlets and censor people. But here? Fear sells and these news outlets are propaganda peddlers and this virus is a money maker for them in regards to clicks and page views. Its is and will be drummed up as much as humanly possible. Not to be callous, but I'll be concerned when I can no longer count on one hand the number of deaths in one specific state. Or maybe collectively hear about a few dozen total deaths in America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I just want scientists to plot out the viruses' genome and come up with an action plan. the notion that this might have been cooked up in a weapons lab is unsettling to me...no sweat yet, but scientists need to explain what we are facing here, not just ZH or even the WHO. let's remember HIV was pretty bad and that was not transmitted as easily as this virus edit: see eg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perulv Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Even if this is contained, and the impact in other countries is limited (which might be likely, I have no reason to think I can predict this better than the official (International) numbers /experts), I would imagine the impact on a lot of businesses to be huge? Shutting down factories in china for some weeks surely must impact a lot of supply chains. I know this is obvious, but I am wondering if that is priced into the lasts days sellof, or if the impact is even bigger? Sorry to drag this into macro(?) -prediction, and I have no numbers to back this up. Interested to hear other thoughts or facts on this, though. In a streamlined modern supply-line, I am guessing the ripple-effects could be large, and perhaps unpredictable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I was told that one thing that is different from the 2003 SARS outbreak is that now Chinese employers have to pay their workers wages even though the factories remain shut. During 2003 SARS, I was told that the workers were not paid. This difference can create issues for the Chinese companies that have higher personnel cost component, I was told. The change is prompted by labor law reformed enacted over the past 15 years. Not sure whether this is true. I am wondering whether our Chinese friends here can confirm or reject this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Bridgewater Dalio's comments: https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1025881/ray-dalio-commentary-our-early-thinking-on-the-coronavirus-and-pandemics This is the first big outbreak in social media era. The (mis)information on twitter is mind boggling. I saw many non medical experts (maybe with some agenda) try to stir panic in market. The economic impact can be bigger than SARS, which lasted over a year, with many Chinese staying home, companies taking longer holidays, and travel bans. And China is a much bigger part of world economy compare to 17 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abyli Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I was told that one thing that is different from the 2003 SARS outbreak is that now Chinese employers have to pay their workers wages even though the factories remain shut. During 2003 SARS, I was told that the workers were not paid. This difference can create issues for the Chinese companies that have higher personnel cost component, I was told. The change is prompted by labor law reformed enacted over the past 15 years. Not sure whether this is true. I am wondering whether our Chinese friends here can confirm or reject this? Yes, it is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 trump's Chinese tariffs were used by him as a tool to negotiate an improved trade relationship. while he said that the Chinese bore the brunt of the tariffs, most would agree that it is the US consumer who pays the tariff...and the logistical/supply chain bearing some transaction costs in adjusting to the new trade landscape. but interestingly, the virus will in fact impose a sizable cost on the Chinese economy in a way that US tariffs could never accomplish. I wonder whether chinese political leaders will become more amenable to improved US/Chinese trade relationship in a way that tariffs could never accomplish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Since we have some Chinese on this forum, if you want to donate to the efforts and couldn't find way that seem reliable, Li Lu is organizing a donation effort to support cities around Wuhan that need medical equipments. http://www.himalayacapital.com/chinese/20200130NewRelease.htm There have been many previous cases in China (not referring to Li Lu's, but in general) where donations have gone missing or directly into the Party comrades' pockets. I am sure the Chinese govt with all its might and power can come up with the required resources on its own. I am not donating one cent. Why would I? When the doctors are fighting so hard with self made protective gears from plastic trash bags, the Wuhan Red Cross intercepted all donations and diverted all of the N95 masks (36000 total) to an abortion clinic! At the same time, the Chinese government donated 30 Million masks to Hong Kong. >:( The shortage of masks and other things is a complete man made disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Bridgewater Dalio's comments: https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1025881/ray-dalio-commentary-our-early-thinking-on-the-coronavirus-and-pandemics This is the first big outbreak in social media era. The (mis)information on twitter is mind boggling. I saw many non medical experts (maybe with some agenda) try to stir panic in market. The economic impact can be bigger than SARS, which lasted over a year, with many Chinese staying home, companies taking longer holidays, and travel bans. And China is a much bigger part of world economy compare to 17 years ago. Oh this same guy who said "cash is trash" right at the market top last month. I'd like to hear more about his infinite wisdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongHaul Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Excellent summary of the situation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak Any thoughts on how to prepare? Far from a 0% probability that the Coronavirus comes to the US. Face mask prices have gone way up online and supplies down in the US FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Excellent summary of the situation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak Any thoughts on how to prepare? Far from a 0% probability that the Coronavirus comes to the US. Face mask prices have gone way up online and supplies down in the US FYI. This was actually a good read and probably bolstered my belief in what I wrote earlier. Lets see what the confirmed numbers look like in a week or maybe a month. But so far, you have barely 100 total cases outside of China and 0 deaths. You also have a death count that is bolstered by people with other conditions and complications, which is always important to consider as well, even with the common flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 One of my relatives just passed away from Corona Virus. Prior to this, he is very healthy with no known issues. His heart rate suddenly dropped to 20, and then passed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I read a lot of people in Wuhan died but they are not counted as dying from the virus because they were never tested. The government says all corona virus patients will be treated free of charge. But when the patient go to see the doctor, the doctor will only give diagnoses saying it’s inclusive infections. So nobody get treated for free. The body burning sites at Wuhan are running in full capacity and are buring 200 bodies each day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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