Coronavirus

[muscleman]

Why do you guys keep talking about the fake death numbers by the Chinese government? If it is true, they'll have no problem accepting the generous offer to help by the US medical team. The government declined the help from foreigners because it does not want them to see the reality.

All funeral homes are running 24/7 in Wuhan and still could not finish processing the dead bodies.

[sleepydragon]

Why do you guys keep talking about the fake death numbers by the Chinese government? If it is true, they'll have no problem accepting the generous offer to help by the US medical team. The government declined the help from foreigners because it does not want them to see the reality.

All funeral homes are running 24/7 in Wuhan and still could not finish processing the dead bodies.

 

There is currently a huge smog in Wuhan. But there is no factories open nor people on the street. It is said the smog is from burning bodies

[mcliu]

Cause we naive westerners?

[muscleman]

Why do you guys keep talking about the fake death numbers by the Chinese government? If it is true, they'll have no problem accepting the generous offer to help by the US medical team. The government declined the help from foreigners because it does not want them to see the reality.

All funeral homes are running 24/7 in Wuhan and still could not finish processing the dead bodies.

 

There is currently a huge smog in Wuhan. But there is no factories open nor people on the street. It is said the smog is from burning bodies

 

Really? Can burning body cause so much smog? I heard there are only 3-4 funeral facilities.

[zippy1]

Really? Can burning body cause so much smog? I heard there are only 3-4 funeral facilities.

my understanding is that there are 7 plus another one for muslims.

http://mzj.wuhan.gov.cn/bmcx/166448.jhtml

 

[muscleman]

Really? Can burning body cause so much smog? I heard there are only 3-4 funeral facilities.

my understanding is that there are 7 plus another one for muslims.

http://mzj.wuhan.gov.cn/bmcx/166448.jhtml

I did some research and I think the average daily death is around 500. It is based on the INCREASE of death from regular periods and based on a call I listened to on YouTube from a journalist to the funeral. Note that most of these body burning facilities have small capacity so you can’t take one number and multiply by 8.

[SharperDingaan]

China is just trying to put its best face forward. 

But like lipstick on a pig - it looks way better from far away, than it does up close.

 

Comes Monday the quarantine period is supposedly up for the 33M+ quarantined over Luna New Year.

Yet ...  https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN2020SN

 

"China’s cabinet said on Sunday it would coordinate with transport authorities to ensure the smooth return to work of employees in key industries such as food and medicines. The State Council’s special coronavirus group also said workers should return in “batches”, rather than all at once, in order to reduce infection risks."

 

"Authorities had told businesses to tack up to 10 extra days on to holidays that had been due to finish at the end of January and some restrictions continued. We all know we can’t purchase masks anywhere, why are we still going back to work?” said a second.

 

"Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing, will keep schools shut until March 1, the People’s Daily newspaper said. Several provinces have shut schools until the end of February." Universities are doing something similar.

 

To most people, it would appear that the mass quarantine is being extended until the end of february. The short supply of masks also very likely being rationed to just those returning batches of workers in food and medicines (or essential services), as added incentive to return to work. Most would also recognize that these are essentially war-time measures, and that they would not have been implemented were the fallout not serious.

 

To China's credit it is a one-party state, and the party has acted both rapidly, effectively, and forcefully.

This level of intervention, and message control, could not have been executed as rapidly in a Western democracy. Ultimately, the final body count may well be a lot lower than it otherwise might have been, because the epi-center was in China. Credit, where it is due.

 

SD

 

 

 

[sleepydragon]

https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777?s=21

m

[Tuxedostyle]

Very interesting...

 

https://twitter.com/InvestSpecial/status/1226920634040692736

[lnofeisone]

Very interesting...

 

https://twitter.com/InvestSpecial/status/1226920634040692736

 

Maybe I'm missing something.

1) Someone showed off their 9th grade skill at using Excel and getting a best fit line

2) Reddit peanut gallery is now cheering on every day that the model gets the number approximately correct

 

If this were a legitimate model I'd expect a lot more metrics (root mean square and mean absolute errors at a minimum), time dependency, cure rate, etc. I can also guarantee that the model shown and the equation are wrong.

[Liberty]

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-will-coronavirus-affect-your-portfolio/

[LongHaul]

Guy Claims death toll over 50k in China

https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll-is-over-50000/

[LongHaul]

Great article that claims China is lying

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871783

 

Assuming the current Crematoriums burned 60,000 bodies year in Wuhan which is ~1,150 per week then an additional

120 or so per week would not be such a big deal - An extra 10% burning.  High probability that the Chinese government is totally full of shit.

 

i like this article for data

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

[zippy1]

China’s Coronavirus Numbers Don’t Add Up. Here’s How We Know.

Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.

Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

 

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”

 

For context, Goodman said a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”

https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840

[abyli]

We all know it is fake number, remember, it is China!

 

China’s Coronavirus Numbers Don’t Add Up. Here’s How We Know.

Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.

Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

 

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”

 

For context, Goodman said a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”

https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economic-data-have-always-raised-questions-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840

[Aberhound]

Oh great. Now Jon Rappaport looks at the tests for the so-called coronavirus and finds them problematic.

 

"Reading through CDC literature, I believe the two most prevalent US testing methods are: antibody, and PCR.

 

Antibody tests are notorious for cross-reactions.  This means factors in no way relevant to a given virus can make the test read positive.  In that case, the patient would be falsely told he "has the coronavirus."  But it gets worse.  Traditionally, antibody tests reading positive were taken as a good sign for the patient: his immune system had contacted a germ and defeated it.  Then, starting in 1984, the science was turned upside down: a positive test was, astoundingly, taken to mean the patient was ill or would soon become ill.

 

The PCR test (which requires excellent technicians who will not make any number of possible mistakes) takes a tissue sample from a patient which might contain a tiny virus particle(s) much too small to be observed---and blows it up many times, so it can be seen.  However, the test says nothing reliable about HOW MUCH virus is in the patient's body.  Why is that important?  Because millions and millions of replicating virus in the body are necessary to even begin talking about actual illness.  A positive PCR test, nevertheless, will be taken to mean the patient "has the epidemic disease."  ---An even deeper issue: where is the PRIOR PROOF that the PCR is testing for a virus that actually causes disease?"

[Cigarbutt]

The antibody tests (immune system reaction to the foreign entity) and antigen tests (that recognize a piece of identity of the virus) are complementary to assessment of symptoms and signs manifestation as well as relevant exposure. The tests work the same way conceptually as when one forms an opinion about a specific investment opportunity: you start with a conditional probability that gets refined with further data points or "tests" (quarterly reports, company announcement, industry development etc.). The inherent uncertainty of the process is fertile ground for various conspiracy theories and fake news that can, at times, reach epidemic proportions. Open mind required but that does not preclude sensible discarding of wacky hypotheses.

 

Interestingly, the focus now on the Coronavirus has removed the spotlight from a significant issue that people have gotten used to over time: influenza.

https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2020/02/15/this_flu_season_was_already_weird_it_is_getting_weirder_111294.html

"So far this season, there have been an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu, according to the CDC."

 

There is nothing wrong with alternative views per se but I find it concerning that vaccination rates could be improved, including and especially for the sub-groups most at risk. Influenza vaccines are only a partially effective solution but, statistically and rationally speaking, remain the most convincing way (evidence-based) to stay alive, especially if you have specific risk factors.

 

It is also interesting to note that the effectiveness of vaccinations would be severely impaired if a critical mass of people start to consider these prevention tools as nefarious.

[Jurgis]

OK, I'm gonna go full kook on this and dial it to 11:

 

Coronovirus is definitely CIA weapon to destroy China, Iran, and Italy (for not leaving EU!).

 

I also know what happens next, but probably I should leave that for the black swamp aka Politics section.

[netnet]

OK, I'm gonna go full kook on this and dial it to 11:

 

Coronovirus is definitely CIA weapon to destroy China, Iran, and Italy (for not leaving EU!).

 

I also know what happens next, but probably I should leave that for the black swamp aka Politics section.

;D

[netnet]

I'm curious.

 

Did anyone happen to see what happened in small PE deals during SARS or MERS?  i.e. were there dips in pricing?

[BG2008]

I'm curious.

 

Did anyone happen to see what happened in small PE deals during SARS or MERS?  i.e. were there dips in pricing?

 

I think you have to stop comparing Corona Virus to SARS.  The world was not as integrated and China was not as large % of the world's GDP back then.  Just saying. 

[PatOfThePig]

In french, a treatment?

 

https://www.lapresse.ca/international/asie-et-oceanie/202002/25/01-5262337-coronavirus-un-traitement-courant-contre-la-malaria-semble-efficace.php

[Guest cherzeca]

people rightfully point out that comparisons of corona to prior viral events do not hold because the world is more connected etc (glass half empty), but by the same token, genome sequencing and vaccine development has made huge leaps and bounds (glass half full). 

[StubbleJumper]

In french, a treatment?

 

https://www.lapresse.ca/international/asie-et-oceanie/202002/25/01-5262337-coronavirus-un-traitement-courant-contre-la-malaria-semble-efficace.php

 

 

Should we begin to drink gin and tonic simply as a prophylactic measure?  I'm willing to try...

 

 

SJ

[Viking]

The CDC warned Tuesday that the novel coronavirus will spread in the U.S. An official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday that COVID-19, the new coronavirus that has sickened nearly 100,000 people worldwide, will eventually spread within the U.S.

 

“Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread within this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, the director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen, and exactly how many people within this country will have severe illness.”

 

Source: Barrons

 

Bond yields have been tanking since the start of the outbreak. Yes, stocks have had two bad days. But are stock investors not way too optimistic about the potential impacts of this virus on the US economy? Is this a ‘buy the dip’ moment or will we see much lower stock prices in the near future?