Coronavirus

[stahleyp]

Kinda bummed that March Madness is cancelled. :(

[orthopa]

I would invite everyone to go back and read my first post in this thread. I dont have time look now, then read the yahoo article gregmal posted.

 

That being said realize in this thread I have been called "ignorant", a "cabbage brain", "blind", and have had very little offer.

 

Orthopa, the problem is that what you're saying doesn't seem to align with evidence.

 

It seems fairly clear that a bunch of people have died in Italy, Iran, and China as a result of COVID-19.  You seem to be claim is that millions in the USA have been infected a long enough time ago that we'd already be seeing lots of deaths if COVID-19 were a big deal.  But USA has not seen lots of deaths.

 

So, to be credible, you need to make it simple for us to understand this disconnect.  Are Americans just more robust than the Italians, Iran, or Chinese? Do Americans have some sort of herd immunity that makes them less likely to die?  Are Italy, Iran, and China simply pretending to have all these deaths, when really, they don't?  Is there something about American culture that allows millions to catch COVID-19, but nobody to die?

 

If you don't have some explanation for this disconnect between your hypothesis of millions infected but nobody dying, the most reasonable thing for people to believe is that your hypothesis is wrong.  Particularly considering that there doesn't actually appear to be any evidence for your hypothesis except "some people got sick this flu season and didn't die, and it's conceivable that those people had COVID-19".

 

(That said, I don't think you're ignorant.  I think you've got the "I'm smart and know a lot about the topic, so my hypothesis unsupported by evidence must be right, and I'll defend it unto death" thing going.  Pretty well all smart people make that mistake occasionally.)

 

Orthopa's general point is this. (correct me if I'm wrong)

 

As testing is rolled out nationwide what statistic will compound at a higher rate of discovery?

 

A.) Terminal cases

 

B.) Mild cases

 

The correct answer is B

 

Duh.

 

The counterpoint has been that widespread testing will reduce the number of illnesses at any given time and that Orthopa's ranting is in complete contradiction to every health oversight agency

 

Nope, sorry bro.

 

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus

 

"Currently, Ohio has five confirmed cases of the virus. Three of the cases are in Cuyahoga County, one is in Stark County and the newest case—announced Wednesday—is a 55-year-old man in Trumbull County."

[mcliu]

Might also be cultural, Asians like to wear masks and don’t like to touch each other, also, bowing/waving instead of shaking hands/kissing. Koreans probably took quarantine more seriously since the outbreak was right next door in China.

As anecdote, Chinese community in Toronto region has initiated self-quarantining program with volunteer food delivery since beginning of Wuhan outbreak when no one was really paying attention.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/inside-the-oval-office-a-fierce-fight-over-trump-s-virus-speech

 

The medical experts on his team were adamant: The best way to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus was to buy time by keeping Europeans out, they said, with the hope the virus may naturally ebb in the warmer weather, according to people familiar with the deliberations. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow, the president’s top economic adviser, pushed back strongly, saying the economic cost would be steep.

 

What a bunch of clown medical experts he has surrounded himself with. We have exponential growth in cases and documented community spread from individuals with NO travel history outside United States. At this point, a Euro travel ban will not stop this. It is too late for travel bans. You cannot "buy time" by blocking outsiders anymore...

 

Are travel bans and tax cuts the only thing we got? Not very effective against viruses.

 

Why was testing not a focus of the speech???

[jeffsreng]

I don't want to make any comparisons but humanity are in good hands:

 

 

The very best are working on the problem.  FYI:

 

32.0 million [23.6 million–43.8 million] people have died from AIDS-related illnesses since the start of the epidemic

 

Known coronavirus death today is 5,003 ===  https://ncov2019.live/data

 

Go out and Enjoy your life 8)

 

[orthopa]

Contact tracing will obviously no longer work in the US. That is an opportunity the US has missed. 

 

We must start social distancing immediately, including cancelling public events, and reducing exposures to large groups.

 

Marc Lipsitch, the Harvard Epidemiologist has a thread here:

 

 

Weren't we just arguing about this in my example of extended contact at airport ? Now because he says it, its true? LOL

 

Orthopa, do you think you can slow down a bit and try to communicate a little more clearly? I think you are making some good points, but it seems your points may not be getting across clearly or that you may even be misunderstood. This post in particular makes me think that is the case.

 

I also thought your earlier point about testing the role of testing in a diagnosis is likely a good point, but was probably too hasty to get your point across. Maybe some other medical professionals could weigh in on that, especially if you're to busy to respond.

 

I dont know how much more I can slow down. I have probably posted 50 times? Trying to get some points across. Am I completely right?, of course not but I have experience FWIW. Others have graphs,  twitter links, and or political angles which are underwhelming at best sometimes.

 

Again points that I have made that I believe are true FWIW (we are allowed an opinion right?)

 

1. The virus has been here for months, likely early January and has been seen/dealt with in the health system under other diagnoses for months.

2. The first test confirmed, was not the first test here.

3. There was nothing the government or any nation in the world could do to stop the initial spread

4. Older people and those most at risk will die. There is no cure, and viruses kill people. Elderly people should take appropriate precautions.

5. Because the virus has been here for months testing is borderline useless and your going to chase your tail the entire time. This is due to numerous contacts and the extended incubation period.

6. If you don't test everyone the virus will continue to spread quickly, again via asymptomatic people and kids. Best policy is to test everyone, but its impossible and too late.

7. Best way to prevent spread is standard precautions! This includes isolation, hand washing, yada, yada. NOT TESTING.

8. If a patient test positive and there has been minimal definite contacts say someone who is home bound with a handful of contacts testing may make sense but these are limited cases.

9. The the spring/summer will bring a reprieve in new cases and hopefully that was well as the fact that nearly everyone will have been exposed or infected this will limit virgin hosts.

10. A vaccine is useless if the virus mutates significantly.

11. The number of cases are vastly under reported, probably numbering in the millions by now in the US.

12. If someone you know or yourself had a cold/URI/flu symptoms that tested negative, and was "way worse" then the common cold there was very high chance it is/was the corona virus.

13. Every case of the virus is not severe, so don't model it as such. Corona virus dx does not = ICU and ventilator.

14. I believe eventually those in charge medically will come to the conclusion that its inevitable that this becomes a pandemic with everyone getting infected in time.

15. If your human, you will get the virus in your lifetime. Nothing you can do.

16. Flattening the curve makes sense but I question when the curve will bump as the virus again likely has been here for months.

 

50x100,000 is 5 million no?

[DooDiligence]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/inside-the-oval-office-a-fierce-fight-over-trump-s-virus-speech

 

The medical experts on his team were adamant: The best way to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus was to buy time by keeping Europeans out, they said, with the hope the virus may naturally ebb in the warmer weather, according to people familiar with the deliberations. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow, the president’s top economic adviser, pushed back strongly, saying the economic cost would be steep.

 

What a bunch of clown medical experts he has surrounded himself with. We have exponential growth in cases and documented community spread from individuals with NO travel history outside United States. At this point, a Euro travel ban will not stop this. It is too late for travel bans. You cannot "buy time" by blocking outsiders anymore...

 

Are travel bans and tax cuts the only thing we got? Not very effective against viruses.

 

Why was testing not a focus of the speech???

 

Donnie is an idiot & tests scare him.

Clowns do not scare him.

[Dalal.Holdings]

I don't want to make any comparisons but humanity are in good hands:

 

 

The very best are working on the problem.  FYI:

 

32.0 million [23.6 million–43.8 million] people have died from AIDS-related illnesses since the start of the epidemic

 

Known coronavirus death today is 5,003 ===  https://ncov2019.live/data

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-virus-testing-system-is-failing-fauci-tells-congress-11584042312

 

The federal government’s top infectious-disease doctor said the nation’s system for disease testing has failed during the coronavirus outbreak because people typically need a doctor’s permission to be tested.

 

“The system is not really geared to what we need right now,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testified Thursday at a congressional hearing. “That is a failing. It is a failing. Let’s admit it.”

 

This is a lie. Doctors who are requesting testing are being denied despite many symptoms in patients. Doctors are not the hold up for lack of tests, but lack of test kits is a hold up (government failure). At this point, it is sounding Orwellian as if these guys don't want us to test too much because the headlines will look bad for them...

[orthopa]

Ok so 100,000 MINIMUM cases in ohio, fuck it say 5 million in US

 

Deaths according to the super scary virus tracker in Ohio 0 and in US 36 I think?

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

I know you guys like spreadsheets. Dalal said medical guys dont learn about numbers in school so I need you guys do it for me.

 

How is that death rate looking now folks?

[KCLarkin]

Ok so 100,000 MINIMUM cases in ohio, fuck it say 5 million in US

 

Deaths in according to the super scary virus tracker in Ohio 0 and in US 36 I think?

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

I know you guys like spreadsheets. Dalal said medical guys dont learn about numbers in school so I need you guys do it for me.

 

How is that death rate looking now folks?

 

This is not hard. Come back in three weeks. If you are still an overconfident SOB, then you were right.

 

And it isn’t about the death rate, it is about the limited medical capacity to deal with epidemics.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus

 

Let's look at this article critically (as part of training as a Physician, it must be natural for you not just to look at complex publications, but also simple News 5 Cleveland articles like this with a critical eye):

 

More than 100,000 people are believed to be infected with the coronavirus, according statements by officials with the Ohio Department of Health during a Thursday afternoon news conference.

 

That number accounts for around 1% of Ohio’s population.

 

"We know now, just the fact of community spread says that at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," said Dr. Amy Acton, Director of ODH. "We have 11.7 million people."

 

According to the Governor Mike DeWine’s Office and the ODH, cases are expected to double every six days.

 

"Whenever you know of 2 people that have it due to community spread, then you can assume that 1% of your population has it," said ODH Press Secretary Melanie Amato, citing a 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the CDC.

 

Let's look at where this 100k number came from. Read that bolded statement again. Now let me ask you a serious question: does that bolded statement sound at all scientifically rigorous to you? If you know of 2 people who have it from community spread you can "assume 1% of your population has it"? Is this some public health secret cheat code I am unaware of where you can extrapolate N=2 to a population based metric like "1% of population"?

 

Why not extrapolate this new cheat code to worldwide--hey, if two people have it from community spread, then 1% of the world's population (80 million people!) must already have it. So easy see?

 

Just because someone has "Dr" or "health director" in their name or title does not mean you take what they say as gospel. It ain't that simple.

[jeffsreng]

Who cares about numbers.  No one will ever know.  Just look at all past cases over 10,000 years.

 

Go out and enjoy your life 8)

[Guest Schwab711]

Ok so 100,000 MINIMUM cases in ohio, fuck it say 5 million in US

 

Deaths according to the super scary virus tracker in Ohio 0 and in US 36 I think?

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

I know you guys like spreadsheets. Dalal said medical guys dont learn about numbers in school so I need you guys do it for me.

 

How is that death rate looking now folks?

 

I truly hope you are right and the regulatory bodies are wrong. No one is rooting for tragedy.

[orthopa]

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus

 

Let's look at this article critically (as part of training as a Physician, it must be natural for you not just to look at complex publications, but also simple News 5 Cleveland articles like this with a critical eye):

 

More than 100,000 people are believed to be infected with the coronavirus, according statements by officials with the Ohio Department of Health during a Thursday afternoon news conference.

 

That number accounts for around 1% of Ohio’s population.

 

"We know now, just the fact of community spread says that at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," said Dr. Amy Acton, Director of ODH. "We have 11.7 million people."

 

According to the Governor Mike DeWine’s Office and the ODH, cases are expected to double every six days.

 

"Whenever you know of 2 people that have it due to community spread, then you can assume that 1% of your population has it," said ODH Press Secretary Melanie Amato, citing a 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the CDC.

 

Let's look at where this 100k number came from. Read that bolded statement again. Now let me ask you a serious question: does that bolded statement sound at all scientifically rigorous to you? If you know of 2 people who have it from community spread you can "assume 1% of your population has it"? Is this some public health secret cheat code I am unaware of where you can extrapolate N=2 to a population based metric like "1% of population"?

 

Why not extrapolate this new cheat code to worldwide--hey, if two people have it from community spread, then 1% of the world's population (80 million people!) must already have it. So easy see?

 

Just because someone has "Dr" or "health director" in their name or title does not mean you take what they say as gospel. It ain't that simple.

 

I know you like munger quotes, here is one for ya.

 

“I'm right, and you're smart, and sooner or later you'll see I'm right.”

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus

 

Let's look at this article critically (as part of training as a Physician, it must be natural for you not just to look at complex publications, but also simple News 5 Cleveland articles like this with a critical eye):

 

More than 100,000 people are believed to be infected with the coronavirus, according statements by officials with the Ohio Department of Health during a Thursday afternoon news conference.

 

That number accounts for around 1% of Ohio’s population.

 

"We know now, just the fact of community spread says that at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," said Dr. Amy Acton, Director of ODH. "We have 11.7 million people."

 

According to the Governor Mike DeWine’s Office and the ODH, cases are expected to double every six days.

 

"Whenever you know of 2 people that have it due to community spread, then you can assume that 1% of your population has it," said ODH Press Secretary Melanie Amato, citing a 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the CDC.

 

Let's look at where this 100k number came from. Read that bolded statement again. Now let me ask you a serious question: does that bolded statement sound at all scientifically rigorous to you? If you know of 2 people who have it from community spread you can "assume 1% of your population has it"? Is this some public health secret cheat code I am unaware of where you can extrapolate N=2 to a population based metric like "1% of population"?

 

Why not extrapolate this new cheat code to worldwide--hey, if two people have it from community spread, then 1% of the world's population (80 million people!) must already have it. So easy see?

 

Just because someone has "Dr" or "health director" in their name or title does not mean you take what they say as gospel. It ain't that simple.

 

I know you like munger quotes, here is one for ya.

 

“I'm right, and you're smart, and sooner or later you'll see I'm right.”

 

I sure as hell hope you are right !

[orthopa]

Ok so 100,000 MINIMUM cases in ohio, fuck it say 5 million in US

 

Deaths according to the super scary virus tracker in Ohio 0 and in US 36 I think?

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

I know you guys like spreadsheets. Dalal said medical guys dont learn about numbers in school so I need you guys do it for me.

 

How is that death rate looking now folks?

 

I truly hope you are right and the regulatory bodies are wrong. No one is rooting for tragedy.

 

Me too. It will allow our lives to return to normal as things re open as well as the market so we all hopefully will make some money.

[RichardGibbons]

Well, Ohio says if you can identify two cases where you can't identify the cause then it means you have 100,000 cases. That may be true, but it could also mean that the 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly report doesn't actually know what it's talking about, or that it's being misunderstood. To me, to extrapolate 2 to 100,000 for any disease seems like a huge leap, and I'd have trouble designing an experiment to prove that hypothesis, so that makes me skeptical. It would be interesting to know the reasoning behind that conclusion.

 

Regardless, if it's true, I agree with you, Orthopa, that it's a reason to be extremely optimistic.

 

So I've been trying to answer my own question, thinking about scenarios where there would be low fatalities in the USA, and high fatalities in Iran/China/Italy.  I wonder if it could be the intersection of COVID-19 with the flu or some other disease.  Like, suppose there's another disease that has greatly weakened the immune systems of people in specific geographic regions, but not easily contagious across broader geographies.  I have no idea if that's possible, but it would explain the discrepancy.

 

The hypothesis I've seen on the low death rate in Korea is that patient 31 attended a massive gathering of a Christian group that focused all its recruitment on a young demographic. That resulted in the infections of thousands in the group. So, there was massive testing of a large group of young people, ensuring that positive tests came from a population where the mean age was far younger than the general population, a population where the death rate is close to negligible.

 

It's worth noting that, if your hypothesis is accurate, Orthopa, there is probably a fast 5-10 bagger to be made in call options with an expiration about 3 weeks from now.

[RichardGibbons]

Thinking about Ohio a bit more, this is actually a great time to test that 2 leads to 1% infection rate hypothesis.

 

If they randomly test 10K people, they can get a 95% confidence interval on the 1%, providing decent evidence of the original claim.  If they test 20K people, they can do better than a 1% confidence interval.

 

Too bad that during pandemics, nobody's thinking about expending medical resources to test theoretical hypotheses.  :)

[Dalal.Holdings]

Thinking about Ohio a bit more, this is actually a great time to test that 2 leads to 1% infection rate hypothesis.

 

If they randomly test 10K people, they can get a 95% confidence interval on the 1%, providing decent evidence of the original claim.  If they test 20K people, they can do better than a 1% confidence interval.

 

Too bad that during pandemics, nobody's thinking about expending medical resources to test theoretical hypotheses.  :)

 

Read the article again. This was not "random testing". The people tested were ones with symptoms who showed up sick to a Dr and met criteria for testing. Not at all random and a highly selective group. Seems the Ohio Health Director must have deeply misunderstood how to implement this estimator she picked up from the 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Some training in probability & statistics 101 for her wouldn't hurt.

 

Edit: but as a public health official, scaring Ohioans into thinking there are 100k people around carrying this virus may be a good psychologic trick to force people into precautionary actions. In the end, this misinformation may serve her needs well.

[LC]

Ok so 100,000 MINIMUM cases in ohio, fuck it say 5 million in US

 

Deaths according to the super scary virus tracker in Ohio 0 and in US 36 I think?

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

I know you guys like spreadsheets. Dalal said medical guys dont learn about numbers in school so I need you guys do it for me.

 

How is that death rate looking now folks?

 

I truly hope you are right and the regulatory bodies are wrong. No one is rooting for tragedy.

 

Me too. It will allow our lives to return to normal as things re open as well as the market so we all hopefully will make some money.

 

Fuck yes, brother.

[RichardGibbons]

Yeah, Dalal, I know it wasn't random testing.  But right now, they have identified 2 cases that meet the criteria.  If they test 10,000, they can see whether or not the "2 cases ==> 100,000 cases" is reasonable.  (i.e. if they test 10,000 and find no cases, they'll have enough evidence to prove that whoever wrote the paper saying "two cases implies 100,000 cases" made a colossal error.)

 

I suppose it would also say something about the number of people who have contracted COVID-19, but my point was just that it can used to refute or bolster the paper's bizarre "2 cases implies 1%" theory.

[stahleyp]

How has covid19 been doing in warmer countries? It looks like it's fairly well contained in Brazil?

 

 

[Gregmal]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-wife-of-canada-pm-justin-trudeau-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

 

This has been here for much longer than people think.

[Guest Schwab711]

Ok so 100,000 MINIMUM cases in ohio, fuck it say 5 million in US

 

Deaths according to the super scary virus tracker in Ohio 0 and in US 36 I think?

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

I know you guys like spreadsheets. Dalal said medical guys dont learn about numbers in school so I need you guys do it for me.

 

How is that death rate looking now folks?

 

I truly hope you are right and the regulatory bodies are wrong. No one is rooting for tragedy.

 

Me too. It will allow our lives to return to normal as things re open as well as the market so we all hopefully will make some money.

 

One upside to mass testing (and follow on studies) is you can learn the actual morbidity rate and other statistics. Transparency and actual information helps calm public panic and would probably help the markets predict where to go.

 

Think of how useful it would be to prove that ~1% (maybe more by the time testing is completed) have CV and you can track their outcomes. In 2-3 weeks this would let authorities point to data of what we are facing and allow for better decision making. It would lead to a narrower spectrum of opinions about the situation. Less conspiracy theories.

[stahleyp]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-wife-of-canada-pm-justin-trudeau-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

 

This has been here for much longer than people think.

 

 

Why do you say that?

 

This is related:

 

https://apnews.com/f20e530ae6dfe4926f81a11905425e2b

 

Could you imagine what would happen if Trump got it? Though...I'm sure we would never find out unless he got super sick.