Coronavirus

[Viking]

10 years from now, do you think the economy will look more like it did a month ago or as it looks today? Depending on how you answer that, determines how you should invest.

 

It looks to me like airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise industry, travel industry, Boeing are all essentially bankrupt as of today. Small 3-4% gains but i am ok with hitting singles right now. Most will not survive with no revenue if we do a soft lockdown that next 2-3 months. We know the government is going to try and bail some out. That is a tough thing for an investor to figure out (who the winners and losers are going to be). Didn’t work great for bank investors in 2008 (BAC and C).

 

That's why you have to understand your circle of competence. People get slaughtered because they think they know more than they do. By the way, are you still like 90%+ cash, Viking?

 

100% cash as of right now. I buy a little on the big down days and have been selling it all the next day (when it pops). Crazy market action. I am going to be very cautious until i get better visibility of what the world looks like after peak virus. US and Canada have completely screwed up testing. What is happening with virus containment is the key to what happens in financial markets... until this is better managed and understood people are investing with uninformed opinions. If we sell off into the close i will likely buy a few things...

[stahleyp]

10 years from now, do you think the economy will look more like it did a month ago or as it looks today? Depending on how you answer that, determines how you should invest.

 

It looks to me like airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise industry, travel industry, Boeing are all essentially bankrupt as of today. Most will not survive with no revenue if we do a soft lockdown that next 2-3 months. We know the government is going to try and bail some out. That is a tough thing for an investor to figure out (who the winners and losers are going to be). Didn’t work great for bank investors in 2008 (BAC and C).

 

That's why you have to understand your circle of competence. People get slaughtered because they think they know more than they do. By the way, are you still like 90%+ cash, Viking?

 

100% cash as of right now. I buy a little on the big down days and have been selling it all the next day (when it pops). Crazy market action. I am going to be very cautious until i get better visibility of what the world looks like after peak virus. US and Canada have completely screwed up testing. What is happening with virus containment is the key to what happens in financial markets... until this is better managed and understood people are investing with uninformed opinions.

 

haha crazy indeed.

[EliG]

https://www.en24.news/a/2020/03/hydroxychloroquine-would-be-effective-according-to-professor-raoult-of-the-ihu-in-marseille-after-a-first-limited-test.html

 

Bayer and Sanofi seem to have huge supplies of this stuff and seem to have offered donations to whatever country wants it.

 

Too early to tell obviously, but if approved, existing and widely available (combo of) medicines turn out to decrease the severity of the virus (at least for a large number of patients) obviously that would be a quick and complete game-changer.

 

Jack Ma shared Chinese handbook on covid-19 prevention and treatment

 

Direct link to English PDF

https://www.alibabacloud.com/universal-service/pdf_reader?spm=a3c0i.14138300.8102420620.dreadnow.6df3647fdDD5GM&pdf=Handbook_of_COVID_19_Prevention_en_Mobile.pdf

 

Check section VI.1 Antiviral Treatment (page 24). Chinese are already using chloroquine.

 

I agree with KCLarkin. It doesn't sound like a big breakthrough.

 

[minten]

Several drugs (incl this one) being trialed.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/who-to-launch-multinational-trial-to-jumpstart-search-for-coronavirus-drugs/

 

Also, an analyst put out a report saying the Gilead-drug should be FDA approved very soon.

 

Regardless of outcome, compare this to a week ago (feels like a year ago) and a lot seems to be happening in a lot of different areas.

[Read the Footnotes]

The bad news of this it could be more widespread than we think it is, and it will be almost impossible to eradicate.

One does not necessarily follow the other.

The good news being the number of people that get infected but never notice should be vastly understated, very much pushing down the percentage of people that ends up in the hospital/death.

Also not necessarily true. The real risk was always that Trump was delaying and minimizing and telling people it was just a cold. The risk is that if we instituted social distancing too late or locked down too late, or individuals continue to act irresponsibly, then the hospitals and healthcare systems could be overwhelmed. If our healthcare system becomes overwhelmed, then death rates could easily increase by thousands of percent during the peak.

 

More people being asymptomatic or presymptomatic could actually make the doomsday scenario of a briefly non-functioning medical system even more likely. The peak would come faster, be briefer, higher and be more devastating.

[John Hjorth]

Several drugs (incl this one) being trialed.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/who-to-launch-multinational-trial-to-jumpstart-search-for-coronavirus-drugs/

 

Also, an analyst put out a report saying the Gilead-drug should be FDA approved very soon.

 

Regardless of outcome, compare this to a week ago (feels like a year ago) and a lot seems to be happening in a lot of different areas.

 

minten,

 

Thank you for sharing. And by the way, a very belated to you here on CoBF from me. I've personally come to appreciate reading your posts within a short time frame.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Isen't it fair to say, that perhaps we're at an inflexion point with regard to public big pharma sentiment, here? [ -From "hold-your-nose-pooh!-big-pharma-doing-nothing-but-for-profit-big-pharma]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

To me, it seems like the big pharma CEOs has been ramping up under this crisis, each in their own way - giving a damn about individual national governmental & political structures [democratic, dictatorships, or whatever - doesn't matter], their lingerings, hesitations, errors of omission, errors of commission et. al., just in the silent going their own way, pursuing real solutions [each in their own way], with the nose in the track, to come up with solutions [whole or partly], to serve patients for their best [AND to make some MONNIES!]!

[Spekulatius]

10 years from now, do you think the economy will look more like it did a month ago or as it looks today? Depending on how you answer that, determines how you should invest.

 

It looks to me like airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise industry, travel industry, Boeing are all essentially bankrupt as of today. Most will not survive with no revenue if we do a soft lockdown that next 2-3 months. We know the government is going to try and bail some out. That is a tough thing for an investor to figure out (who the winners and losers are going to be). Didn’t work great for bank investors in 2008 (BAC and C); the companies survived but shareholders had their head handed to themselves.

 

Shadow banking system might be the next shoe to fall... overleveraged companies.

 

Oil and gas industry...

 

Looks to me like their might be a real bifurcation in the market. A stock pickers market. 30% of companies weather the storm and 70% get shit kicked. Not great for ETF holders.

 

Private equity would be my guess as a casualty.

 

Another thing I noticed - treasuries were very weak today and interest rates have shot up. That rarely happens in such a down market. Is the financial system getting squeaky? If treasuries yields would explode upwards it would be game over, imo.

[John Hjorth]

Roche's tests can give a result 3.5 hrs after the sample gets to the lab.  These tests have been FDA approved.  I'm very optimistic that we'll follow the S. Korea model.

 

If you were writing a fictional novel, could you have the US Govt buy Roche and order manufacturers to put these things together?  What timeline would it take (realistically)?  And have the military set up labs?

 

The ONLY reason why we all have to stay home right now is because we don't know who is positive.

 

Just to pursue the thought experiment, which I consider a no-go ["Don't buy the goose laying golden eggs, when the price of gold is at its top"] :

 

Roche : Controlling shareholders, especially :

 

... The shareholder pooling agreement has existed since 1948. The duration of the pool was extended for an indefinite period in 2009. ...

 

Without the intent to stir the pot, we all need to stay world citizens.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Here’s Ackman video. He spoke for much longer so there might be an even longer video out there somewhere.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

 

Youtube video:

 

Ackman seems to get that an extreme upfront response will prove less costly than a slow, incremental response. His 30 day lockdown call seems excessive however. We already have a great example of how to tackle this outbreak in S Korea--extensive testing, then quarantine the positives even if they have few/no symptoms. You do not need extensive lockdowns to stop this. Extensive testing seems to be the most cost effective way to stop spread and spare the economy.

 

We continually refuse to learn from other countries...

[ERICOPOLY]

Roche's tests can give a result 3.5 hrs after the sample gets to the lab.  These tests have been FDA approved.  I'm very optimistic that we'll follow the S. Korea model.

 

If you were writing a fictional novel, could you have the US Govt buy Roche and order manufacturers to put these things together?  What timeline would it take (realistically)?  And have the military set up labs?

 

The ONLY reason why we all have to stay home right now is because we don't know who is positive.

 

Just to pursue the thought experiment, which I consider a no-go ["Don't buy the goose laying golden eggs, when the price of gold is at its top"] :

 

Roche : Controlling shareholders, especially :

 

... The shareholder pooling agreement has existed since 1948. The duration of the pool was extended for an indefinite period in 2009. ...

 

Without the intent to stir the pot, we all need to stay world citizens.

 

I don't know what you meant by world citizens.  I was not implying that testing kits be hoarded only for US citizens.  At some point, when there is a bottleneck a government can help by ordering other manufacturers to stop what they are doing and build more of what we need.  For example, GM was once ordered to build equipment for war mobilization.  The part about buying Roche was just to adequately compensate the owners -- license it, buy it, whatever. 

[Read the Footnotes]

The ONLY reason why we all have to stay home right now is because we don't know who is positive.

 

I would refine this statement to say that the reasons we have to stay at home is:

a) we wasted time arguing about whether is was just a cold or not,

b) we don't know and we HAVEN'T known who has it for some time, and

c) a lockdown of some sort was probably always going to be a utilized part of the toolkit, but it will all be much worse due to a & b above

 

Ackman seems to get that an extreme upfront response will prove less costly than a slow, incremental response. His 30 day lockdown call seems excessive however. We already have a great example of how to tackle this outbreak in S Korea--extensive testing, then quarantine the positives even if they have few/no symptoms. You do not need extensive lockdowns to stop this. Extensive testing seems to be the most cost effective way to stop spread and spare the economy.

 

We continually refuse to learn from other countries...

 

Again I would refine to say that extensive lock downs were not inevitable, but they are necessary now, due to the mismanagement mentioned above. I expect to see a national shelter in place order any day. That will allow time for the hospitals and time to get a robust national testing program together. The order can be lifted once the testing program can be trusted, but there will likely still be restrictions on movement and many other things. A program to identify and track who has immunity or likely immunity would also be very helpful as restrictions are lifted.

 

Plus don't forget that ideas are viruses and we still have not eradicated the "it's just a cold" idiocy. It's just not as prevalent here as it was a short time ago. The "just a cold bro" virus is still endemic in parts of the US society though. Shelter in place will be necessary because of (a) above. So if you're keeping track of unnecessary costs, add that to your list if you are making estimates.

[meiroy]

Roche's tests can give a result 3.5 hrs after the sample gets to the lab.  These tests have been FDA approved.  I'm very optimistic that we'll follow the S. Korea model.

 

If you were writing a fictional novel, could you have the US Govt buy Roche and order manufacturers to put these things together?  What timeline would it take (realistically)?  And have the military set up labs?

 

The ONLY reason why we all have to stay home right now is because we don't know who is positive.

 

I agree testing is key and it will be a game-changer.  Can it work efficiently without everyone wearing masks, though? It's so contagious.

[EliG]

Here's my one hopeful observation that the Covid-19 pandemic may not really be as much of a pandemic as it feels like right now.  It has to do with the testing issue.

 

All the testing we hear about in the news is about a screening test.  RT-PCR is a screening test.  That's the only testing available so far.  It is not a diagnostic test.  All "diagnoses" and "cases" reported in the news (worldwide 188,609 cases to date as of this post) is based on a screening test.

 

Many PCRs for many different infectious diseases are known to have unacceptably high false positive rates.  This can only be determined by a gold standard test, such as a viral culture.  I've searched and so far have found no information about viral cultures or other confirmatory testing for Covid-19.

 

There are many coronaviruses out there.  It's possible there is significant cross-reactivity between some of these other coronaviruses, or other non-corona respiratory viruses, with the Covid-19 RT-PCR.  In other words, many of the cases currently being identified may actually be identifying something else.

 

This situation is obviously natural early in the outbreak of a novel pathogen.  The fact that the Chinese rapidly developed a test so early is amazing.  But a rapidly available test means you sacrifice accuracy.  For epidemiological screening, you need to identify possible cases quickly with a rapid test that that has a high sensitivity rate.  But a test with high sensitivity means you're sacrificing specificity.  Epidemiologists will get a better handle on specificity over time as confirmatory tests become available.

 

cobafdek, how big of a deal is this?

 

 

A serological assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in humans

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1

 

 

Methods: Here we describe serological enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) that we developed using recombinant antigens derived from the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. These assays were developed with negative control samples representing pre-COVID 19 background immunity in the general population and samples from COVID19 patients.

 

Results: The assays are sensitive and specific, allowing for screening and identification of COVID19 seroconverters using human plasma/serum as early as 3 days post symptom onset. Importantly, these assays do not require handling of infectious virus, can be adjusted to detect different antibody types and are amendable to scaling.

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

10 years from now, do you think the economy will look more like it did a month ago or as it looks today? Depending on how you answer that, determines how you should invest.

 

It looks to me like airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise industry, travel industry, Boeing are all essentially bankrupt as of today. Most will not survive with no revenue if we do a soft lockdown that next 2-3 months. We know the government is going to try and bail some out. That is a tough thing for an investor to figure out (who the winners and losers are going to be). Didn’t work great for bank investors in 2008 (BAC and C); the companies survived but shareholders had their head handed to themselves.

 

Shadow banking system might be the next shoe to fall... overleveraged companies.

 

Oil and gas industry...

 

Looks to me like their might be a real bifurcation in the market. A stock pickers market. 30% of companies weather the storm and 70% get shit kicked. Not great for ETF holders.

 

Private equity would be my guess as a casualty.

 

Another thing I noticed - treasuries were very weak today and interest rates have shot up. That rarely happens in such a down market. Is the financial system getting squeaky? If treasuries yields would explode upwards it would be game over, imo.

 

 

Noticed that too - people have been saying even Treasury liquidity is off so people dumping what they can at what prices they can to get cash.

 

Could it be the inflation scare of the House floating 2k/month payouts to every adult citizen and 1k/month for every child?

 

If it passes, That's lots of f*cking money about to flood the system to a lot of people who don't really need it at a time when you dont have to spend it on the essentials (same bill allows deferral of ALL consumer and small business debt service like mortgages and credit cards and student loans w/ no penalties).

 

I'm all for getting money into the hands of people who need it - but 4-8k/month for a household is A LOT and it sounds like it would be going to everyone regardless of immediate need.

[Castanza]

10 years from now, do you think the economy will look more like it did a month ago or as it looks today? Depending on how you answer that, determines how you should invest.

 

It looks to me like airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise industry, travel industry, Boeing are all essentially bankrupt as of today. Most will not survive with no revenue if we do a soft lockdown that next 2-3 months. We know the government is going to try and bail some out. That is a tough thing for an investor to figure out (who the winners and losers are going to be). Didn’t work great for bank investors in 2008 (BAC and C); the companies survived but shareholders had their head handed to themselves.

 

Shadow banking system might be the next shoe to fall... overleveraged companies.

 

Oil and gas industry...

 

Looks to me like their might be a real bifurcation in the market. A stock pickers market. 30% of companies weather the storm and 70% get shit kicked. Not great for ETF holders.

 

Private equity would be my guess as a casualty.

 

Another thing I noticed - treasuries were very weak today and interest rates have shot up. That rarely happens in such a down market. Is the financial system getting squeaky? If treasuries yields would explode upwards it would be game over, imo.

 

 

Noticed that too - people have been saying even Treasury liquidity is off so people dumping what they can at what prices they can to get cash.

 

Could it be the inflation scare of the House floating 2k/month payouts to every adult citizen and 1k/month for every child?

 

If it passes, That's lots of f*cking money about to flood the system to a lot of people who don't really need it at a time when you dont have to spend it on the essentials (same bill allows deferral of ALL consumer and small business debt service like mortgages and credit cards and student loans w/ no penalties).

 

I'm all for getting money into the hands of people who need it - but 4-8k/month for a household is A LOT and it sounds like it would be going to everyone regardless of immediate need.

 

There has to be some amount of pain associated with handouts. I no more than 1-1.5k per household will cover rent for the majority of America. Anything else well, figure it out. I also think it should be some type of structured 0% interest loan with say 5 year repayment.

 

4K a month is massive raise for lower class, a good raise for middle class and 8k is a goddamn promotion for most people. That is insanity.

[Dalal.Holdings]

10 years from now, do you think the economy will look more like it did a month ago or as it looks today? Depending on how you answer that, determines how you should invest.

 

It looks to me like airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise industry, travel industry, Boeing are all essentially bankrupt as of today. Most will not survive with no revenue if we do a soft lockdown that next 2-3 months. We know the government is going to try and bail some out. That is a tough thing for an investor to figure out (who the winners and losers are going to be). Didn’t work great for bank investors in 2008 (BAC and C); the companies survived but shareholders had their head handed to themselves.

 

Shadow banking system might be the next shoe to fall... overleveraged companies.

 

Oil and gas industry...

 

Looks to me like their might be a real bifurcation in the market. A stock pickers market. 30% of companies weather the storm and 70% get shit kicked. Not great for ETF holders.

 

Private equity would be my guess as a casualty.

 

Another thing I noticed - treasuries were very weak today and interest rates have shot up. That rarely happens in such a down market. Is the financial system getting squeaky? If treasuries yields would explode upwards it would be game over, imo.

 

 

Noticed that too - people have been saying even Treasury liquidity is off so people dumping what they can at what prices they can to get cash.

 

Could it be the inflation scare of the House floating 2k/month payouts to every adult citizen and 1k/month for every child?

 

If it passes, That's lots of f*cking money about to flood the system to a lot of people who don't really need it at a time when you dont have to spend it on the essentials (same bill allows deferral of ALL consumer and small business debt service like mortgages and credit cards and student loans w/ no penalties).

 

I'm all for getting money into the hands of people who need it - but 4-8k/month for a household is A LOT and it sounds like it would be going to everyone regardless of immediate need.

 

Meh. The bottom 90% of people have been screwed for 3 decades plus. $5k/mo is peanuts compared to decline in wealth over time. Unlikely to be for more than few mo after it runs thru the Senate. Then again, Trumpy might push for it because it helps him in November to have given checks out to every citizen.

 

Those at the top have benefitted disproportionately from Monetary Policy past decade. Time to give some fiscal pump to those down below.

 

We wonder why inflation has been persistently low for so long...putting money in the bottom 90% may push that inflation number up and that is not a bad thing during a crisis like this.

[Viking]

US confirmed cases are exploding. Just passed both South Korea and France

 

Total = 9,371

 

New cases

March 16 =.  983

March 17 = 1,748

March 18 = 2,974

 

This rate of increase will be something to watch in the coming days...

[Dalal.Holdings]

US confirmed cases are exploding. Just passed both South Korea and France

 

Total = 9,371

 

New cases

March 16 =.  983

March 17 = 1,748

March 18 = 2,974

 

This rate of increase will be something to watch in the coming days...

 

A lot of that is in NY which, largely thanks to Cuomo, is due to the state having achieved first world level of medical testing.

[orthopa]

Have been just sitting back and reading everyone's thoughts on things which is interesting for sure. My attention has turned more from what I think will happen with the virus (I think I have made my thoughts very clear). Some of my predictions so far have been close which feels good I guess but means nothing in the mess the world is today. Especially in light of the sick people, fear, society shut down and all the angst the market falling is causing many I'm sure.

 

Like everyone here (except for Viking you bastard! ;) ) it blows watching the market implode unless short or all cash. Long term investing is not easy thats for sure. But what I am really starting to get worried about is what this will do to many, many, small business, restaurants, franchisees, bars, etc. This 15 day gov shut down and multiple state shut down is going to kill businesses, confidence, sky rocketing unemployment etc. I would like to think and hope it is a V or U shaped recovery but if your a business owner that goes out of business how long is it going to take your confidence to come back, workers etc? I would love to have a quick rebounding economy but if enough people get laid off, enough businesses bankrupt this could be a long time mess.

 

I think Ackmans idea makes some sense but hes a billionaire. Sure you can have rent holidays, mortgage forbearance, don't pay your utilities etc but this is already crushing airlines, hotels, small business, restaurants and we are a couple days in. Some states want a month or more. Whats the unemployment rate after this month? That drops down fast? Idk. And sending 1-2k checks wont cut the mustard for many

 

At some point I think you start to see people who say fuck it, enough. Stress levels and tension are extremely high. First it was fear, and still is, but in social media circles I have seen many start to question what we are doing and for who? That can get dangerous. Throw in not working, no money coming in, your kids not going to school driving you up the wall and every day you get up and the death rate in the US is at 100-125-150.

 

I'm not saying we should get to a point where we choose who lives and who doesn't but at some point I think you have to look at the broader picture. I brought this way up earlier in the thread and some commented on it as the owns persons fault but some things to just consider.

 

As of right now fear still predominates in the greatest economy in the world as well as other nations in the world. In every sense of the word we are in this together and I think fundamentally doing the right thing, but....we have shut down essentially the world, ruined daily lives, scared the ever living shit out of people. We will have bankrupted people. Some may commit suicide  seen with financial crises, many other making huge sacrifices some of which will never recover from. Businesses will close. We will add trillions to the debt, the fed taking extraordinary actions to prevent the economy from seizing. Scrambling in chaos to find solutions with amounts of money that no one can comprehend for the millions, and millions of people who will be affected, emotionally, mentally, financially etc. Bankrupting our airline industry, possibly hotel, travel, leisure, restaurant, banking?? industry. Its turned into absolute chaos.

 

And what are we afraid of ? A disease that we know may have an 86% as symptomatic rate, that so far has killed 8784 people out of 7.8 Billion people,  .000116%. People who we know on average are nearing the end of their lives. People who succumb every day to diseases we are numb to. I know many are aware of the flu data on deaths but some aren't on the most common every day killers in the US. Every year in the US alone;

 

674,000 people die from cardiovascular disease

607,000 from cancer

170,000 from accidental deaths

 

In the world;

 

17.65 million heart disease

8.93 million from cancer

3.54 million from respiratory disease

 

My point is not to sacrifice people for money, and I am aware obviously the death rate world wide would be much higher if the above was not done in the US, China, Italy, Europe etc. But why is it ok for all of these people to die from the above? Are we just numb to it? Since the first corona case in the US 2 months ago based on the above data 112,333 people have died from heart disease. Every day we look at the Johns Hopkins map checking deaths and each day 1846 Americans and 48,356 in the world have died from heart disease. We are killing ourselves over ICU beds for Mary for Covid, while her friend from the Senior Center dies downstairs in the same hospital before they can get to the Cath lab. We want a vaccine in months for corona but are willing to go through multiple year trials for anticoagulants, cholesterol meds, and hypertension meds.

 

That being said, do we really care as country how many people die? And who and how old they are?

 

This has become an irrational obsession for the world, and with this virus. When you really look at what will kill you living in this country, and who we should be saving, the sooner you realize this has become insanity.

[Guest cherzeca]

my daughter married 3/14 in NYC.  220 people invited, 140 came.  turns out that it was the last weekend that we could hold this event.  we had a fantastic time!  we have checked with every guest post celebration, no issues. I am happy to say that life goes on, and the market will recover.  I just wish that politicians who so blithely impose draconian restrictions on people would realize that they are causing more harm than good.

[orthopa]

US confirmed cases are exploding. Just passed both South Korea and France

 

Total = 9,371

 

New cases

March 16 =.  983

March 17 = 1,748

March 18 = 2,974

 

This rate of increase will be something to watch in the coming days...

 

Obviously only because of testing at this point. Its expected. With an 86% asymptomatic rate its the death rate where the meat is. That should be exploding any day now.

 

That being said for those believe me (for the record I don't give two shits but whatever). Recently I have called the DOH 26 times over the past 2 days for pts that have symptoms of COVID. These are the ones with highest risk factors. Recent travel to endemic area, known covid exposure, negative Flu/rsv with fever.  Unless they are showing signs of severe respiratory distress they are not getting tested and are being told to self quarantine for 14 days. I have not admitted any of these pts. Tests are limited as expected. Epidemologist believes multiple thousands of cases in county with 975 thousand people. Obviously anecdotal but I wanted to ask him.

[Viking]

Orthopa, great post (long one up top); it covered the human side of the virus. When i watched the 45 minute Wuhan documentary 3 weeks ago i had my holy shit momemt. It laid out in a very graphic way the human destruction the virus causes. And then Iran and Italy gave us examples 2 and 3.

 

The key, i believe, is leadership. Korea initially blew it (their leader was in denial); he was forced to the background and their experts took over. They recovered. The key for the US moving forward continues to be Trump; i have said this many times but Senate Republicans need to put their big boy pants on and work with the House Democrats and push Trump to the sidelines and get at this thing. Managing this crisis is beyond his skill set. It really is that simple. He needs to be pushed into the shadows and professionals need to be empowered to do what needs to be done (right now his yes people are empowered to do what Trump wants done).

[TwoCitiesCapital]

US confirmed cases are exploding. Just passed both South Korea and France

 

Total = 9,371

 

New cases

March 16 =.  983

March 17 = 1,748

March 18 = 2,974

 

This rate of increase will be something to watch in the coming days...

 

A lot of that is in NY which, largely thanks to Cuomo, is due to the state having achieved first world level of medical testing.

 

And the fact that they waited until this week to shut everything down despite knowing there were probably thousands of cases already the area....

 

These numbers are about to get much worse over the next 5 days as asymptomatic becomes symptomatic

[wescobrk]

how much are we down from the peak now? around 36%? futures are down almost 5% tomorrow morning so if that holds that takes us to 41%.

Good news is we got a phase 2 very quickly with the stimulus. The government is moving a lot faster than in 2008.

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

my daughter married 3/14 in NYC.  220 people invited, 140 came.  turns out that it was the last weekend that we could hold this event.  we had a fantastic time!  we have checked with every guest post celebration, no issues. I am happy to say that life goes on, and the market will recover.  I just wish that politicians who so blithely impose draconian restrictions on people would realize that they are causing more harm than good.

 

I hope the news remains positive.

 

But median time for symptoms is 5-days with some being as long as 14. I wouldn't expect most of your guests to have noticed any symptoms yet even if most were affected.