Coronavirus

[orthopa]

We're going to get serological results quicker than I thought.  Recent past CFR numbers will be coming down.

 

A tweet from yesterday:

 

 

was updated today:

 

 

Definitely going to be watching this. Do you know by chance is this an independent company? What is driving this goverment? His profile is lackluster.

[orthopa]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/health/a-heart-attack-no-it-was-the-coronavirus.html

 

"An electrocardiogram revealed an ominous heart rhythm. The patient had high blood levels of a protein called troponin, a sign of damaged heart muscle. Doctors rushed to open the patient’s blocked arteries — but found that no arteries were blocked."

 

"A report on heart problems among coronavirus patients in Wuhan, China, was published in JAMA Cardiology on Friday. The study, led by Dr. Zhibing Lu at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, found that 20 percent of patients hospitalized with Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, had some evidence of heart damage."

 

When patients "code" in the hospital, it is usually due to an abnormal heart rhythm that often leads to mortality. The underlying cause does not have to be cardiac (though if you have preexisting cardiac disease you are at increased risk). For example--a virus that causes ARDS can cause severe hypoxia. Severe hypoxia can cause pulmonary hypertension (increased load for the right side of the heart to pump against) and cause cardiac ischemia/infarction, cardiac arrest, V-fib, etc. Certain viral infections are also known direct cardiomyopathy and as your article notes, that could be a factor with this but obviously lots of uncertainty at this point.

 

Or another example: taking Trump's favorite drug Hydroxychloroquine can prolong what's called the QT interval and lead to Torsades de Pointes which is often fatal. In that case, the drug should be blamed as the culprit, not the heart.

 

Yep definitely a psychiatrist. Didn't do to well on match day did you?

 

So when you have no arguments left, attack individuals. Got it.

 

No just analyzed the quality of the "data" in your post. I'm data driven yo!

 

And your right, you haven't attacked my intellectual capacity, my analytical skills, questioned my profession, etc. What the fuck is wrong me.

 

 

[cobafdek]

We're going to get serological results quicker than I thought.  Recent past CFR numbers will be coming down.

 

A tweet from yesterday:

 

 

was updated today:

 

 

Definitely going to be watching this. Do you know by chance is this an independent company? What is driving this goverment? His profile is lackluster.

 

I don't know who he is or what company is testing.  I gather that Friedberg is an angel investor in venture capital. 

 

There must be dozens of start-ups, not just in the USA, that are racing with the serological testing.  The Mount Sinai lab that published their results last week (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1) has a website where competing labs can order the ingredients and do the testing themselves https://labs.icahn.mssm.edu/krammerlab/covid-19/

 

Things are moving very fast.  Good news.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/health/a-heart-attack-no-it-was-the-coronavirus.html

 

"An electrocardiogram revealed an ominous heart rhythm. The patient had high blood levels of a protein called troponin, a sign of damaged heart muscle. Doctors rushed to open the patient’s blocked arteries — but found that no arteries were blocked."

 

"A report on heart problems among coronavirus patients in Wuhan, China, was published in JAMA Cardiology on Friday. The study, led by Dr. Zhibing Lu at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, found that 20 percent of patients hospitalized with Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, had some evidence of heart damage."

 

When patients "code" in the hospital, it is usually due to an abnormal heart rhythm that often leads to mortality. The underlying cause does not have to be cardiac (though if you have preexisting cardiac disease you are at increased risk). For example--a virus that causes ARDS can cause severe hypoxia. Severe hypoxia can cause pulmonary hypertension (increased load for the right side of the heart to pump against) and cause cardiac ischemia/infarction, cardiac arrest, V-fib, etc. Certain viral infections are also known direct cardiomyopathy and as your article notes, that could be a factor with this but obviously lots of uncertainty at this point.

 

Or another example: taking Trump's favorite drug Hydroxychloroquine can prolong what's called the QT interval and lead to Torsades de Pointes which is often fatal. In that case, the drug should be blamed as the culprit, not the heart.

 

Yep definitely a psychiatrist. Didn't do to well on match day did you?

 

So when you have no arguments left, attack individuals. Got it.

 

No just analyzed the quality of the "data" in your post. I'm data driven yo!

 

And your right, you haven't attacked my intellectual capacity, my analytical skills, questioned my profession, etc. What the fuck is wrong me.

 

Touché. My frustration for the lack of urgency in U.S. response got the best of me and I am probably guilty of all of those things. My apologies.

 

I need a breather off this site, after all.

[Liberty]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-trump-told-pence-not-to-call-washington-michigan-governors.html

 

President Donald Trump said Friday that he instructed Vice President Mike Pence not to reach out to governors who aren’t “appreciative” of his administration’s efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus in their states.

 

The president mentioned Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, both Democrats who have been critical of the White House’s actions to combat the deadly pandemic.

 

Trump said that Pence “calls all the governors. And I tell him, I’m a different type of person, and I say, ’Mike, don’t call the governor of Washington. you’re wasting your time with him.”

 

So that's how Zalensky felt...

 

How is this not criminal? Playing games with the lives of US citizens, exchanging praise and lack of criticism for medical help? Blackmail and bribery...

[drzola]

Maybe I should borrow a petri dish from VIDO SK of corvo19 and redeplloy it on to Trumps wife's orifices  and whils  the supposedly Manchild Broods with little mama he may just perish ims a week or sol? Just saying cuz you Americans our Fuked you know dominoes fell dudes so step up maybe and grow a pair maybe Enough is Enough when little Canada can put him in his place and not his own residents geesh

[minten]

https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-03-27-Abbott-Launches-Molecular-Point-of-Care-Test-to-Detect-Novel-Coronavirus-in-as-Little-as-Five-Minutes

 

" delivering positive results in as little as five minutes and negative results in 13 minutes. "

 

" Abbott expects to produce about 5 million tests per month. "

[alwaysdrawing]

And your right, you haven't attacked my intellectual capacity, my analytical skills, questioned my profession, etc. What the fuck is wrong me.

 

I think your analytical skills are not of the highest order.  Can't speak to your intellectual capacity, however you have continuously minimized the threat of COVID and used your credentials as a cudgel to push your agenda.

 

The data clearly shows you were wrong about a large number of undiagnosed cases of coronavirus in Jan/Feb, which you repeatedly claimed.

 

Meanwhile, Dalal has been posting good info for weeks, and I don't care what his profession is.  Credentialism is unnecessary.

[John Hjorth]

Geez, & oh come on, gents,

 

There is no need to create peer-to-peer foes individually within the CoBF community because of the situation. The whole situation is severely stressful already without that. Please, & at least, try to look ahead.

 

Thank you.

[Libs]

And your right, you haven't attacked my intellectual capacity, my analytical skills, questioned my profession, etc. What the fuck is wrong me.

 

I think your analytical skills are not of the highest order.  Can't speak to your intellectual capacity, however you have continuously minimized the threat of COVID and used your credentials as a cudgel to push your agenda.

 

The data clearly shows you were wrong about a large number of undiagnosed cases of coronavirus in Jan/Feb, which you repeatedly claimed.

 

Meanwhile, Dalal has been posting good info for weeks, and I don't care what his profession is.  Credentialism is unnecessary.

 

 

Jeez. I just have to weigh in here. Orthopa simply weighed in with some on-the-ground experience that ran counter to the prevailing wisdom. For which he was treated quite roughly. I appreciated his input, right or wrong.

[mcliu]

And your right, you haven't attacked my intellectual capacity, my analytical skills, questioned my profession, etc. What the fuck is wrong me.

 

I think your analytical skills are not of the highest order.  Can't speak to your intellectual capacity, however you have continuously minimized the threat of COVID and used your credentials as a cudgel to push your agenda.

 

The data clearly shows you were wrong about a large number of undiagnosed cases of coronavirus in Jan/Feb, which you repeatedly claimed.

 

Meanwhile, Dalal has been posting good info for weeks, and I don't care what his profession is.  Credentialism is unnecessary.

 

 

Jeez. I just have to weigh in here. Orthopa simply weighed in with some on-the-ground experience that ran counter to the prevailing wisdom. For which he was treated quite roughly. I appreciated his input, right or wrong.

 

+1 Agreed.

[LC]

Geez, & oh come on, gents,

 

There is no need to create peer-to-peer foes individually within the CoBF community because of the situation. The whole situation is severely stressful already without that. Please, & at least, try to look ahead.

 

Thank you.

 

This is the reason that this thread, and this virus, is turning into a political talking point. It's the reason we see such clusterfuckery all abouts the US in terms of response. It's human nature, even the folks here on COBF are just as susceptible as Trump.

 

Nobody on this forum is going to be absolutely right or wrong in terms of estimating the magnitude of this situation. And certainly nobody in the real-world who are making policy decisions will be able to do so either.

[DocSnowball]

Flu season looks like a blip on the NYC Influenza Like Illness data tracker.  So much for orthopa's theory--deaths and illness rates now clearly indicate no widespread incidence back in Jan/Feb. 

 

https://weinbergerlab.shinyapps.io/NYC_syndromic/

OMG! Never seen anything like this graph in 15 years of tracking these seasonal flu curves!!!

[RichardGibbons]

Jeez. I just have to weigh in here. Orthopa simply weighed in with some on-the-ground experience that ran counter to the prevailing wisdom. For which he was treated quite roughly. I appreciated his input, right or wrong.

 

That's not why he was treated roughly. He was treated roughly for ignoring evidence and continuing to push a narrative that was completely refuted by the data. On message boards, encouraging people to draw obviously incorrect conclusions almost always leads to people being attacked, and even more so during stressful times when incorrect conclusions can cause people to die or lose money.

 

That said, I agree we should try to be nicer. I try, and often fail.  :(

[drzola]

DocSnowBall

You just nailed it

it's 50/50 time folks so be kind to all mankind maybe eh! Go Canada Go 1972 was so great ha.

[Spekulatius]

The Model (for which I can’t vouch for) expects max medical capacity use mid April. This assumes distancing measures in place.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

Of course peak usage differs from state to state. 500 peak death/day for NY alone sounds pretty scary. Overall death in the US ~80k.

[arcube]

I have nothing but respect and admiration for this gentleman. Given his work conditions and boss, he still tries his best to have utmost integrity.

 

 

[Castanza]

The Model (for which I can’t vouch for) expects max medical capacity use mid April. This assumes distancing measures in place.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

Of course peak usage differs from state to state. 500 peak death/day for NY alone sounds pretty scary. overal death in the US ~80k.

 

Is the 80k projection based including the shortage of beds and ventilators?

[cobafdek]

I have nothing but respect and admiration for this gentleman. Given his work conditions and boss, he still tries his best to have utmost integrity.

 

 

Consider this from January 26, 5 days before the President ordered the ban on travel from China:

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/479939-government-health-agency-official-corona-virus-isnt-something-the?amp

 

Feel any different?

[EliG]

38yo healthy guy details his experience with Covid-19. He didn't get hospitalized. It probably means that his case counts as mild. For a "mild" case, it sounds downright scary.

 

 

Share with friends & family who still think "it's just like a flu".

[Castanza]

I have nothing but respect and admiration for this gentleman. Given his work conditions and boss, he still tries his best to have utmost integrity.

 

 

Consider this from January 26, 5 days before the President ordered the ban on travel from China:

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/479939-government-health-agency-official-corona-virus-isnt-something-the?amp

 

Feel any different?

 

Just a few days before your article WHO was still repeating what China had “confirmed” that the virus was not transferred person to person. There is a 15-20 day window late Jan to early Feb where info was very unclear and very fast changing.

[Spekulatius]

The Model (for which I can’t vouch for) expects max medical capacity use mid April. This assumes distancing measures in place.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

Of course peak usage differs from state to state. 500 peak death/day for NY alone sounds pretty scary. overal death in the US ~80k.

 

Is the 80k projection based including the shortage of beds and ventilators?

 

Yes, otherwise those input parameters wouldn’t matter. With these models, the absolute numbers are probably less impotent than how the output reacts to changing input parameters. not something they can be done using the website, one would need to play with their model (which is downloadable,  but that’s way more than I am willing or capable of doing).

[meiroy]

 

If hundreds of millions or billions of people are infected with this, what is the chance it mutates and we start the whole thing all over again?

[minten]

Meanwhile, Dalal has been posting good info for weeks, and I don't care what his profession is.  Credentialism is unnecessary.

 

Come on, this is turning things upside down. Credentialism is unnecessary unless you first bring it up yourself; nobody here knows my profession as I've never told you what it is.

When someone first comes out saying he's an MD while making medical statements therefore sounding like someone who knows what he's saying, then later deletes that comment because perhaps he's really not, then of course that's on him. Not on the person who noticed and comments on it.

[minten]

 

If hundreds of millions or billions of people are infected with this, what is the chance it mutates and we start the whole thing all over again?

 

it's my understanding (but perhaps an MD can correct me) the flu is quite unique in being able to mutate so fast and is therefore so succesful, while corona viruses, like most viruses, aren't. This isn't the first corona virus we have dealt with.

But of course, this  one might be different, who knows. There has been plenty of talk there are already two different strains of this virus, one contagious and mild, one not so contagious and harsh. But it's not really clear to me if that's fact or speculation at this point.