Coronavirus

[minten]

Separately, I'm wondering what tomorrow will bring?  The bill is signed (good, though should be priced in by now) but the news from Europe (and US?) has not been so good, and suggests US has much worse to come.

 

What news from Europe has been "not so good"?

[Liberty]

Scott Gottlieb plan to reopen:

 

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

[Viking]

Thanks to bond market, USA can borrow like no other. Wouldn’t worry too much about fin crisis. End game of all of this will be inflation and taxes on wealthy and ultimate narrowing of wealth gap that has widened over decades. Wealthy folks will lose some of their (current) large share.

 

I don't see how you can have higher inflation without a financial crisis. Not with everyone geared up to the debt levels they are.  Higher inflation leads to higher interest rates and then lower spending the way I see it.

 

My basic understanding is--inflation good for long term debtors. Deflation is what kills debtors (seen in Great Depression). If you have a 30 year mortgage and locked in at 3% interest a year, inflation of 4-5% would make it easier for you to pay the interest/debt off (negative real interest rate for you), especially if you earn a salary which rises with inflation.

 

Coming out of this (12-18 months from now) qmy base case is the US will look much more like Europe (possibly with negative interest rates). I think that scenario is much more likely than we see meaningfully higher inflation.

[Jurgis]

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

[Dalal.Holdings]

Thanks to bond market, USA can borrow like no other. Wouldn’t worry too much about fin crisis. End game of all of this will be inflation and taxes on wealthy and ultimate narrowing of wealth gap that has widened over decades. Wealthy folks will lose some of their (current) large share.

 

I don't see how you can have higher inflation without a financial crisis. Not with everyone geared up to the debt levels they are.  Higher inflation leads to higher interest rates and then lower spending the way I see it.

 

My basic understanding is--inflation good for long term debtors. Deflation is what kills debtors (seen in Great Depression). If you have a 30 year mortgage and locked in at 3% interest a year, inflation of 4-5% would make it easier for you to pay the interest/debt off (negative real interest rate for you), especially if you earn a salary which rises with inflation.

 

Coming out of this (12-18 months from now) qmy base case is the US will look much more like Europe (possibly with negative interest rates). I think that scenario is much more likely than we see meaningfully higher inflation.

 

It’s possible, but I think we are different from Europe in many key ways—for one, not too worried about spending fiscal dollars (i.e. no austerity), no issues with different regions (i.e. Germans not too keen on “bailing out” southern countries). I think U.S. more likely to spend government dollars and distribute to bottom percentile (esp the workers hit hardest by this) and this is with Trump in WH and Republicans in Senate. If that changes the other way in Nov, the purse strings will put more $ power (call it “redistribution” if you will, but the poor/middle class have been screwed for decades now) in middle/lower classes which is likely to lead to uptick in inflation.

[Guest cherzeca]

MORE SANITY:  "Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, the former chief biostatistician and epidemiologist at Rockefeller University Hospital, told The Post he was not practicing social distancing and said he regularly goes to one of two illicit restaurants secretly operating in his Upper East Side neighborhood.

 

“Yesterday I went to my favorite speakeasy and had dinner,” he said, saying there were about eight others dining alongside him. He declined to name the establishment.

 

The veteran physician believes social distancing will only prolong the virus by preventing the natural development of “herd immunity.”

 

“All respiratory epidemics end when 80 percent of all people have become immune,” he said “Then if a new person gets infected, the person doesn’t find anybody else to infect. The best strategy you can do is isolate the old and fragile people — make sure that nobody visits the nursing homes — then let the children go to school and let people go to work. … They have a mild disease. Then they become immune, and after two or three weeks the epidemic is over.”

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/new-yorkers-are-throwing-corona-potlucks-and-visiting-speakeasies/

 

as usual we are doing things ass backwards.

[Dalal.Holdings]

MORE SANITY:  "Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, the former chief biostatistician and epidemiologist at Rockefeller University Hospital, told The Post he was not practicing social distancing and said he regularly goes to one of two illicit restaurants secretly operating in his Upper East Side neighborhood.

 

“Yesterday I went to my favorite speakeasy and had dinner,” he said, saying there were about eight others dining alongside him. He declined to name the establishment.

 

The veteran physician believes social distancing will only prolong the virus by preventing the natural development of “herd immunity.”

 

“All respiratory epidemics end when 80 percent of all people have become immune,” he said “Then if a new person gets infected, the person doesn’t find anybody else to infect. The best strategy you can do is isolate the old and fragile people — make sure that nobody visits the nursing homes — then let the children go to school and let people go to work. … They have a mild disease. Then they become immune, and after two or three weeks the epidemic is over.”

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/new-yorkers-are-throwing-corona-potlucks-and-visiting-speakeasies/

 

as usual we are doing things ass backwards.

 

This is why forming opinions based on the letters after someone's name (credentials) is not wise. Also, as far as I can tell--he's no physician--PhD, ScD. Not that I care about his degrees. You wouldn't believe all the nonsense that is heard on a daily basis on the inside of a physician's lounge.

[username]

So far best response: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore.

Is it because they all have mandatory military service for men and the people are more alert about incoming threats (from North Korea, China, Malaysia)?

Something to consider?

Israel also has mandatory service. We are not very disciplined to say the least, and military service makes us question authority even more.

Honestly, I see no reason to be alert. Deaths reported here are of people in their 80's and 90's. In case there's curfew, I'll comply only not to get fined.

[vinod1]

I had thoughts of calling Dalal some choice names earlier in the thread. I had expected fewer than 5000 deaths based on how quickly US has stopped passengers from China. I had a large cash going in and put 10% in many stocks and got a quick 30-40% hair cut on many in a few days.

 

But I think it is abundantly clear for a while now, that he has been right for the right reasons. As has Viking and a few others. A terrific piece of analysis. Take a bow!

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-deaths-top-30-000-as-china-opens-up-province-where-it-began-11585466594?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

"Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said a new federal advisory announced Saturday night urging New York City area residents not to travel to other states would help slow the virus’s spread. But he said projections he has examined showed the disease would kill between 100,000 and 200,000 Americans and infect far more, “looking at what we’re seeing now.”"

 

Now let us move forward. Keep the analysis going.

 

Vinod

[John Hjorth]

Separately, I'm wondering what tomorrow will bring?  The bill is signed (good, though should be priced in by now) but the news from Europe (and US?) has not been so good, and suggests US has much worse to come.

 

What news from Europe has been "not so good"?

 

Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe?

[no_free_lunch]

MORE SANITY:  "Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, the former chief biostatistician and epidemiologist at Rockefeller University Hospital, told The Post he was not practicing social distancing and said he regularly goes to one of two illicit restaurants secretly operating in his Upper East Side neighborhood.

 

“Yesterday I went to my favorite speakeasy and had dinner,” he said, saying there were about eight others dining alongside him. He declined to name the establishment.

 

The veteran physician believes social distancing will only prolong the virus by preventing the natural development of “herd immunity.”

 

“All respiratory epidemics end when 80 percent of all people have become immune,” he said “Then if a new person gets infected, the person doesn’t find anybody else to infect. The best strategy you can do is isolate the old and fragile people — make sure that nobody visits the nursing homes — then let the children go to school and let people go to work. … They have a mild disease. Then they become immune, and after two or three weeks the epidemic is over.”

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/new-yorkers-are-throwing-corona-potlucks-and-visiting-speakeasies/

 

as usual we are doing things ass backwards.

 

Look, I am conservative, pro-republican so don't think what I am saying is political.  Please use some common sense.  If this thing spreads too quickly it will overwhelm the medical system.  We have ample evidence of this.  If it overwhelms the health care system people who get it will die needlessly due to lack of equipment and care.  It won't happen that way if we can spread out the infection and if we can put in place policies that lock down people who get infected, as is done in various Asian countries.  For those of us in age brackets unlikely to be affected, we risk not getting medical care if we have some medical issue other than covid.  Or getting sick and then getting covid which can kill anyone.

 

Look at it from a pure economic POV.  If we do these shutdowns and we go back and everyone is still infected we will just have to keep locking down.  This could drag on for months and months and cause economic chaos.

 

We are paying a tremendous cost due to the shutdowns, lets make it as effective as possible.

[Spekulatius]

I had thoughts of calling Dalal some choice names earlier in the thread. But I think it is abundantly clear for a while now, that he has been right for the right reasons. As has Viking and a few others. A terrific piece of analysis. Take a bow!

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-deaths-top-30-000-as-china-opens-up-province-where-it-began-11585466594?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

"Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said a new federal advisory announced Saturday night urging New York City area residents not to travel to other states would help slow the virus’s spread. But he said projections he has examined showed the disease would kill between 100,000 and 200,000 Americans and infect far more, “looking at what we’re seeing now.”"

 

Now let us move forward. Keep the analysis going.

 

Vinod

 

I agree. The “it’s just a flu” crowd should be thinning out by now. 100-200k dead dead is higher than the number in the model I posted.

[Guest cherzeca]

MORE SANITY:  "Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, the former chief biostatistician and epidemiologist at Rockefeller University Hospital, told The Post he was not practicing social distancing and said he regularly goes to one of two illicit restaurants secretly operating in his Upper East Side neighborhood.

 

“Yesterday I went to my favorite speakeasy and had dinner,” he said, saying there were about eight others dining alongside him. He declined to name the establishment.

 

The veteran physician believes social distancing will only prolong the virus by preventing the natural development of “herd immunity.”

 

“All respiratory epidemics end when 80 percent of all people have become immune,” he said “Then if a new person gets infected, the person doesn’t find anybody else to infect. The best strategy you can do is isolate the old and fragile people — make sure that nobody visits the nursing homes — then let the children go to school and let people go to work. … They have a mild disease. Then they become immune, and after two or three weeks the epidemic is over.”

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/new-yorkers-are-throwing-corona-potlucks-and-visiting-speakeasies/

 

as usual we are doing things ass backwards.

 

Look, I am conservative, pro-republican so don't think what I am saying is political.  Please use some common sense.  If this thing spreads too quickly it will overwhelm the medical system.  We have ample evidence of this.  If it overwhelms the health care system people who get it will die needlessly due to lack of equipment and care.  It won't happen that way if we can spread out the infection and if we can put in place policies that lock down people who get infected, as is done in various Asian countries.  For those of us in age brackets unlikely to be affected, we risk not getting medical care if we have some medical issue other than covid.  Or getting sick and then getting covid which can kill anyone.

 

Look at it from a pure economic POV.  If we do these shutdowns and we go back and everyone is still infected we will just have to keep locking down.  This could drag on for months and months and cause economic chaos.

 

We are paying a tremendous cost due to the shutdowns, lets make it as effective as possible.

 

case numbers are irrelevant.  mortalities are not.  we should be "vertically" targeting elderly and health-compromised with special focused resources/mitigation.  because our focus is far too "horizontal", we are hurting what should be the very target of our efforts...and the more non-at-risk people catch the virus and make antibodies, the better it will be for the overall health of the system.  this is all ass-backwards

[Dalal.Holdings]

I had thoughts of calling Dalal some choice names earlier in the thread. I had expected fewer than 5000 deaths based on how quickly US has stopped passengers from China. I had a large cash going in and put 10% in many stocks and got a quick 30-40% hair cut on many in a few days.

 

But I think it is abundantly clear for a while now, that he has been right for the right reasons. As has Viking and a few others. A terrific piece of analysis. Take a bow!

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-deaths-top-30-000-as-china-opens-up-province-where-it-began-11585466594?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

"Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said a new federal advisory announced Saturday night urging New York City area residents not to travel to other states would help slow the virus’s spread. But he said projections he has examined showed the disease would kill between 100,000 and 200,000 Americans and infect far more, “looking at what we’re seeing now.”"

 

Now let us move forward. Keep the analysis going.

 

Vinod

 

Thank you. Hope I never get to find out what those choice names were.  ;D

 

I didn't do any fancy analysis--just:

elementary understanding of compounding +

watching how this played in other countries and acknowledging it had not hit here yet +

consulting Taleb's works

 

There was an 11 year bull market and a lot of doomsayers during those 11 years (incl Taleb who was musing about a rout in U.S. Treasury Bonds early in this time period). Nothing during those 11 years triggered me to exit to cash like what I saw was coming in Feb 2020. Many people got it earlier than me.

 

The situation in the U.S. is tragic and frustrating to me because the proper action of travel ban was never followed up by preparations for outbreak at home by this administration. Really terrible that the United States looks to bear the worst of this (again, if you trust China's numbers, but even then, we're #2 at best).

 

[minten]

Separately, I'm wondering what tomorrow will bring?  The bill is signed (good, though should be priced in by now) but the news from Europe (and US?) has not been so good, and suggests US has much worse to come.

 

What news from Europe has been "not so good"?

 

Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe?

 

What stat in particular doesn't look good?

 

Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Separately, I'm wondering what tomorrow will bring?  The bill is signed (good, though should be priced in by now) but the news from Europe (and US?) has not been so good, and suggests US has much worse to come.

 

What news from Europe has been "not so good"?

 

Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe?

 

What stat in particular doesn't look good?

 

Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly.

 

I agree. While Europe has flattened , the US is showing exponential growth that is going to take weeks to break.

[thowed]

Minten - the news in the UK press this weekend has suggested that hospitals are struggling, 'things are going to get worse before they get better' from the UK prime minister, and that the UK could be under lockdown for 6 months.

 

Very few people in the UK have been tested, relatively, so I feel it's hard to comment on new cases.

 

Hopefully not all of this is true, but it doesn't fill me with hope.

 

Hope that provides more colour.

 

[John Hjorth]

What stat in particular doesn't look good?

 

Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly.

 

Thank you for elaborating, minten,

 

I may suffer of some kind of home bias [Denmark] here, - at least here - , the numbers still seem exponential, however the "Y" in X^Y seems to be a bit lower than earlier. [This is about hospitalizations - hospitalizations don't lie.]

[Aurelius]

Low or mild levels of influenza-like illness all over USA (trending down)

https://healthweather.us/

[Aurelius]

We interpret these declines in presumed flu infections to be a promising indication that social distancing measures will be effective at slowing the spread of COVID-19.

https://www.kinsahealth.co/social-distancing-and-its-effect-on-reducing-the-spread-of-illness/

[undervalued]

So if I shoot a bullet through the head of a fellow with hypertension, the cause of death is:

 

1) bullet wound

2) Hypertension

3) Hard to tell

 

I mean could we ever really know if the bullet killed the man, or if he happened to die from complications of hypertension just as the bullet entered his skull? Causation can be tricky after all, and we should study it further before deciding conclusively!

 

M.

 

Why would anyone assume the hole in the head was caused by the gun going off? People are always jumping to conclusions. The liberal media has brainwashed everyone.

 

The real question that everyone is waiting for, did this person has covid-19? If he did, he obviously died from it.

 

False comparison.  A bullet through head will kill 100% of time, immediately.

Covid-19 doesnt kill 99%+ and definitely not immediately.

 

So you cannot assign a 80 year cancer patient to Covid automatically.

At least they should check for lungs and breathing problems etc.

My understanding is a whole lot of times old and sick die of "infections" but is reported to be dead of cancer/stroke, and resultant complications. Not infection (flu, bacteria etc).

 

Type II diabetes is a good example of how silly it is to haggle about the exact cause of death when it is clear that a disease is clearly a major factor in contributing towards death. Most patients with severe type II diabetes die of other causes that are essentially a result of secondary damage from the disease (infections that do not respond to antibiotics very well, kidney failure, more cardiovascular complications than otherwise, etc). Clearly Covid seems to accelerate the underlying pre-existing conditions towards death, in particular cardio-vascular and any lung related pre-existing condition is what we know so far.

 

I guess this quick exercise quickly explain why it's hard to categorize death rates. No doctor is going to spend time on a cold body to find out what exactly the cause of death especially when you have bodies piling up.

[Spekulatius]

So, my wife went to work out one of the three hospital she’s works for yesterday and they told her that the surgical mask shall be worn for 5 shifts before getting discarded. This is a surgical mask, not even the better N95’s that are handed out as PPE. Unbelievable!. If you ever worn a surgical mask (I Have worn similar ones in clean rooms) , you know it’s not going last 5 shifts.

 

This particular hospital is just at the beginning as first patients just rolled in the newly rigged up Covid floor (it’s correctly named droplet control floor but everyone calls it the former). Her boss told her at the beginning not work without proper PPE which is provided by the hospital. She doesn’t work technically fo the hospital since she is working for a company which is a contractor for specialty care (dialysis). Things are awfully tight when it’s just beginning. I don’t like the choices she has to make.

[Viking]

From the Washington Post (from March 24; sorry if someone already provided link)

 

Trump is missing the big picture on the economy

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/24/trump-is-missing-big-picture-economy/

 

...The same logic applies to social-distancing policies. Prematurely abandoning or relaxing social distancing will be disastrous on both economic and health grounds. If restrictions are lifted prematurely, the result will be a follow-on pandemic surge. More people will die. What will the policy choice be then? If it is a return to restriction, starting from a much less favorable point and much more disease spread, then the cumulative economic loss will be greatly magnified. The costs we have already borne will have been totally in vain.

 

...The president and the business leaders who urge him to abandon a public health orientation to pandemic policy are nonetheless correct to want to move through the current difficult period rapidly as possible. The right focus is not on false hopes. It is on realistic strategies that permit a targeted approach to reducing transmission. That means more testing, more contact tracing, and more and better facilities for those who need to be separated from others or treated.

 

...There will come a time when we can gradually let up on current restrictions and help the economy in the process. It will be the moment when new case counts are no longer accelerating; when we have adequate measures in place to quickly catch and contain new outbreaks; and when we are confident that we are not endangering hard-won progress by impetuous actions.

[John Hjorth]

So if I shoot a bullet through the head of a fellow with hypertension, the cause of death is:

 

1) bullet wound

2) Hypertension

3) Hard to tell

 

I mean could we ever really know if the bullet killed the man, or if he happened to die from complications of hypertension just as the bullet entered his skull? Causation can be tricky after all, and we should study it further before deciding conclusively!

 

M.

 

Why would anyone assume the hole in the head was caused by the gun going off? People are always jumping to conclusions. The liberal media has brainwashed everyone.

 

The real question that everyone is waiting for, did this person has covid-19? If he did, he obviously died from it.

 

False comparison.  A bullet through head will kill 100% of time, immediately.

Covid-19 doesnt kill 99%+ and definitely not immediately.

 

So you cannot assign a 80 year cancer patient to Covid automatically.

At least they should check for lungs and breathing problems etc.

My understanding is a whole lot of times old and sick die of "infections" but is reported to be dead of cancer/stroke, and resultant complications. Not infection (flu, bacteria etc).

 

Type II diabetes is a good example of how silly it is to haggle about the exact cause of death when it is clear that a disease is clearly a major factor in contributing towards death. Most patients with severe type II diabetes die of other causes that are essentially a result of secondary damage from the disease (infections that do not respond to antibiotics very well, kidney failure, more cardiovascular complications than otherwise, etc). Clearly Covid seems to accelerate the underlying pre-existing conditions towards death, in particular cardio-vascular and any lung related pre-existing condition is what we know so far.

 

I guess this quick exercise quickly explain why it's hard to categorize death rates. No doctor is going to spend time on a cold body to find out what exactly the cause of death especially when you have bodies piling up.

 

Not true for my country [Denmark].

[rb]

Separately, I'm wondering what tomorrow will bring?  The bill is signed (good, though should be priced in by now) but the news from Europe (and US?) has not been so good, and suggests US has much worse to come.

 

What news from Europe has been "not so good"?

 

Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe?

 

What stat in particular doesn't look good?

 

Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly.

 

I agree. While Europe has flattened , the US is showing exponential growth that is going to take weeks to break.

What are you guys talking about?

 

I've attached Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK. Aside from Italy they look pretty fucking exponential to me. Italy has had a a China style quarantine for a couple of weeks now.

 

No more growth at all? Seriously?