Dalal.Holdings Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-contrarian-coronavirus-theory-that-informed-the-trump-administration The dangers of botching interpretation of data and forecasting (and not engaging in the precautionary principle), and as recently as March 16th: According to the Washington Post, “Conservatives close to Trump and numerous administration officials have been circulating an article by Richard A. Epstein of the Hoover Institution, titled ‘Coronavirus Perspective,’ that plays down the extent of the spread and the threat.” Epstein, a professor at New York University School of Law, published the article on the Web site of the Hoover Institution, on March 16th. In it, he questioned the World Health Organization’s decision to declare the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic, said that “public officials have gone overboard,” and suggested that about five hundred people would die from covid-19 in the U.S. Epstein later updated his estimate to five thousand, saying that the previous number had been an error. So far, there have been more than two thousand coronavirus-related fatalities in America; A broken model leads to policy makers not taking this seriously...SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Thanks for the update. Is it 100 new cases just at that one hospital? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 In case you guys want some real stories. This is what it looks like in Wuhan today. So after reporting fake 0 cases for a couple of days, people start to resume their life now. My friend in the most famous Wuhan hospital said they still have 100 new cases per day, but the mayor told them anyone reporting that number will be fired. Everyone's being extremely careful and wearing masks all the time. I don't think that can completely prevent the 2nd wave of outbreak but that could certainly help though. So maybe what happens next is that people still get the virus but the number is not as big as the first wave's peak. I'll echo the other sentiments - thanks for providing updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Potus now talks in the WH press conference to find out where all these masks go in NYC. Are they going though the back door? Someone should investigate :o Literally his words. Remember what Trump sent to China? 17.8 tons of PPE Trump administration sent protective medical gear to China while he minimized the virus threat to US https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/opinions/coronavirus-personal-protective-equipment-obeidallah/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 So far best response: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore. Is it because they all have mandatory military service for men and the people are more alert about incoming threats (from North Korea, China, Malaysia)? Something to consider? Simple. 1. Everyone in these countries wore masks, and I mean EVERYONE -- the best form of social distancing that actually works. + 2. testing + 3. due to SARS they had a system in place + 4. pro-science functioning governments. What about the USA? 1. nope. 2. only starting 3. had a system but it was ignored and the responsible team fired 4. None of that. Goodluck. They also took this threat seriously and therefore faster response time shutdown or mass testing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Why masks are effective: https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/covid-19-why-we-should-all-wear-masks-there-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minten Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Another statistic that puts all of this in perspective. https://twitter.com/billsweet/status/1244602155262246912 Shouldn't we lockdown the economy ALWAYS? I mean, 9000(!) lives a week, 9000 people that could have been you or someone you love; lives before profits right? We all agree, right? Or now suddenly we don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 minten, To me, the question is both ethical and cultural. The discussion has started here in Denmark, too. Personally, I'm amazed - in a positive way - about the cohesion of the Danish society in this situation. Everybody is helping each other, each at their own very best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Mar 24th was the day the Olympics got postponed. source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Another statistic that puts all of this in perspective. https://twitter.com/billsweet/status/1244602155262246912 Shouldn't we lockdown the economy ALWAYS? I mean, 9000(!) lives a week, 9000 people that could have been you or someone you love; lives before profits right? We all agree, right? Or now suddenly we don't? No. Because there's a big difference between a runaway exponential process and a stable, predictable one that you can build your healthcare system around. And when you have one on top of the other, then you get in real trouble. In other words, this is about as smart as someone saying "well, it snowed a lot this winter, how about that global warming?" But the next level of thinking is: Yes, we should do a lot more to also reduce deaths from other sources, like cars and the diseases of aging and other diseases, and I hope we do. But these stats are an argument to do more, not less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 In case you guys want some real stories. This is what it looks like in Wuhan today. So after reporting fake 0 cases for a couple of days, people start to resume their life now. My friend in the most famous Wuhan hospital said they still have 100 new cases per day, but the mayor told them anyone reporting that number will be fired. Everyone's being extremely careful and wearing masks all the time. I don't think that can completely prevent the 2nd wave of outbreak but that could certainly help though. So maybe what happens next is that people still get the virus but the number is not as big as the first wave's peak. Wow - thanks for that. Nice to be told the truth for once. If you listen to MSNBC or CNN, you surely know that the Chinese Communist Party has all but ended the virus and is vastly more competent than the Trump administration. Good to have real citizens that can report the truth to all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 From this thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Another statistic that puts all of this in perspective. https://twitter.com/billsweet/status/1244602155262246912 Shouldn't we lockdown the economy ALWAYS? I mean, 9000(!) lives a week, 9000 people that could have been you or someone you love; lives before profits right? We all agree, right? Or now suddenly we don't? No. Because there's a big difference between a runaway exponential process and a stable, predictable one that you can build your healthcare system around. And when you have one on top of the other, then you get in real trouble. In other words, this is about as smart as someone saying "well, it snowed a lot this winter, how about that global warming?" But the next level of thinking is: Yes, we should do a lot more to also reduce deaths from other sources, like cars and the diseases of aging and other diseases, and I hope we do. But these stats are an argument to do more, not less. Well said. No one is trying to do the impossible and stop people from dying. As has been argued in many forms on this thread already, a contagious (i.e. multiplicative) process is very different from events with independent (i.e. non-correlated) risks: car accidents, cancer deaths, heart disease associated deaths. If you are an insurance company, would you rather be in the business of insuring car accidents in the entire United States or would you rather be in the business of insuring houses for floods on a single island in the Bahamas? In the latter example, on one day you are bound to learn a lesson about risk correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Czech Republic made masks in public mandatory Mar 17 just after quarantine. Two weeks later have flattened curve. Spain, Italy, USA with quarantine but no masks, well, have a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Photo of NYC's floating hospital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minten Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 No. Because there's a big difference between a runaway exponential process and a stable, predictable one that you can build your healthcare system around. 9000 lives a week is 468.000 lives a year (very "back-of-napkin", I know). Every year. And I'm betting the average age of this hypothetical person isn't past retirement like with COVID. Exponential sure sounds scary but it doesn't automatically exceed stable, if that stable number is large enough. You need a pretty dark runaway exponential COVID process to come even close to 468.000 deaths each and every year, considering COVID is a one-time scenario, and also considering the average COVID-death is 80 years old and in bad health. And when you have one on top of the other, then you get in real trouble. We have been in trouble for so many years, and nobody cares. Hospitals have been over-run multiple times, and nobody cared. We've had waves of much larger excessive death (just look at that excess morbidity graph that was posted yesterday) that nobody really noticed. Where did these much larger amounts of people die? In the hospital? Apparently not. At home? In a nursing home? And next year we'd just cut our healthcare budgets even more. But this time it's "exponential", I get it. Yes, we should do a lot more to also reduce deaths from other sources, like cars and the diseases of aging and other diseases, and I hope we do Kind of like wishing for world peace, isn't it. Ofcourse we won't. We all know it intuitively, but nobody will do anything about it because the dead have no face. Polution for example would be an easy one to fix, but nah, the economy. And yeah, the economy! While some die along the way, others have a life to live, that's how it's always been. But somehow with COVID everything is different, and every death is reflected in a large ticker on our television screen and it saddens us and reminds us how that person could have been someone we knew. Not addressing anyone in particular here, but it's utterly hypocritical to state COVID is more important than daily life, and if we need to shut down the economy for months over this, so be it. If you apply the same standard to all else around us, we need to stop everything right now and lock ourselves in our houses forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Another statistic that puts all of this in perspective. https://twitter.com/billsweet/status/1244602155262246912 Shouldn't we lockdown the economy ALWAYS? I mean, 9000(!) lives a week, 9000 people that could have been you or someone you love; lives before profits right? We all agree, right? Or now suddenly we don't? That study is a very interesting and relevant input. Thank you. This is early, so please provide follow-up in due course, if the authors make updates. There will be second and third-order effects as well as unintended consequences from the virus itself, from spontaneous adaptation and from collective efforts. And human nature being what it is, we will likely revert back to the 'normal' course of human events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Comparing annual deaths to CV19 deaths in the past month is not apples-to-apples, even if it did make sense to make the comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Potus now talks in the WH press conference to find out where all these masks go in NYC. Are they going though the back door? Someone should investigate :o Literally his words. Remember what Trump sent to China? 17.8 tons of PPE Trump administration sent protective medical gear to China while he minimized the virus threat to US https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/opinions/coronavirus-personal-protective-equipment-obeidallah/index.html Followed the link in the article, sounds like it was private donations, maybe NGOs? State Department provided shipping: Feb 7: "This week the State Department has facilitated the transportation of nearly 17.8 tons of donated medical supplies to the Chinese people, including masks, gowns, gauze, respirators, and other vital materials." https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-assistance-to-combat-the-novel-coronavirus/ At the time, everyone was sending China supplies.. https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2020/02/canada-supports-chinas-ongoing-response-to-novel-coronavirus-outbreak.html Canada sent medical supplies to China on Feb 9: "To support China’s ongoing response to the outbreak, Canada has deployed approximately 16 tonnes of personal protective equipment, such as clothing, face shields, masks, goggles and gloves to the country since February 4, 2020." https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-appeals-for-medical-supplies-to-be-sent-from-abroad Feb 6: "It has also urged the US to fulfil its promise of providing aid, a day after it accused Washington of spreading fear by pulling its citizens out and severely restricting travel for Chinese citizens. "China has noted that the United States has repeatedly expressed its willingness to provide assistance to China, and hopes that the relevant assistance will be provided soon," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said in a statement yesterday. .... An increasing number of countries - including South Korea, Japan, Britain, France, Turkey, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Iran, Belarus and Indonesia - have donated medical supplies. South Korea transported three million masks, 100,000 hazmat suits and 100,000 pairs of goggles in batches to Wuhan, while close ally Pakistan rounded up 300,000 medical masks, 800 hazmat suits and 6,800 pairs of gloves from public hospitals around the country to ship to China. Iran has also donated one million masks, while Britain brought in 50,000 gloves and 35,000 sets of protective suits and goggles on an evacuation chartered flight that later flew home 41 of its citizens. Yesterday, Ms Hua expressed gratitude to the Japanese for having donated large batches of masks, goggles and protective suits." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 The measures China is taking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 I haven't read it yet, but this book by epidemiologist Michael T. Osterholm seem extremely timely (published in 2017): https://www.amazon.ca/Deadliest-Enemy-Against-Killer-Germs/dp/B072F7142P/ as outbreaks of Ebola, MERS, yellow fever, and Zika have demonstrated, we are woefully underprepared to deal with the fallout. So what can - and must - we do in order to protect ourselves from mankind's deadliest enemy? Drawing on the latest medical science, case studies, policy research, and hard-earned epidemiological lessons, Deadliest Enemy explores the resources and programs we need to develop if we are to keep ourselves safe from infectious disease. The authors show how we could wake up to a reality in which many antibiotics no longer cure, bioterror is a certainty, and the threat of a disastrous influenza pandemic looms ever larger. Only by understanding the challenges we face can we prevent the unthinkable from becoming the inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 The measures China is taking: incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 The measures China is taking: incredible She's going from Shanghai to Wuxi. Near the end it shows the security measures in-place to screen local travellers even between provinces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Thanks for the update. Is it 100 new cases just at that one hospital? Yes. She only works for that one hospital. Do you expect her to have a second job in another hospital? :) My relative who was cured in the end of Feb and had all symptoms back after 3 weeks at home and then got hospitalized again in a different hospital told us that she also saw a lot of new cases each day in that hospital. But never mind. The official number is 0, and production has resumed in the factories. So from the stock investor perspective outside of China, who cares what's really going on yeah? I think the bottom for the market may be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Thanks for the update. Is it 100 new cases just at that one hospital? Yes. She only works for that one hospital. Do you expect her to have a second job in another hospital? :) My relative who was cured in the end of Feb and had all symptoms back after 3 weeks at home and then got hospitalized again in a different hospital told us that she also saw a lot of new cases each day in that hospital. But never mind. The official number is 0, and production has resumed in the factories. So from the stock investor perspective outside of China, who cares what's really going on yeah? I think the bottom for the market may be in. Muscleman - Thank you so much for keeping us informed. We wish only the best to you and your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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