Coronavirus

[KCLarkin]

Are you surprised that Ontario has contracted more cases of Covid from its immediate neighbour than from countries half-way around the world?  Some how that doesn't strike me as shocking...

 

It's not shocking now (since the US is now the epicentre). But it was shocking in early March when there were fewer than 1000 reported cases in the U.S. and we were importing cases from states with no known cases.

[StubbleJumper]

Since we have some Canadian neighbors on the board why isnt Toronto a complete shit show? Toronto has a ton of international flights to China/Europe and a pretty dense make up right?

 

International travel stopped March 16th

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/trudeau-travel-restrictions-ban-coronavirus-covid19-canada

 

And travel to US stopped March 18th.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2020/03/18/update-canada-restricts-travel-to-the-us-in-new-coronavirus-travel-ban/#4859d99f449c

 

Or does Toronto fall in the "wait 2 more weeks" category?  With the international flights and the US loaded with it you would expect a mess up there now right?

 

 

No, it's Montreal that is the shit-show.

 

 

SJ

[mcliu]

Since we have some Canadian neighbors on the board why isnt Toronto a complete shit show? Toronto has a ton of international flights to China/Europe and a pretty dense make up right?

 

International travel stopped March 16th

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/trudeau-travel-restrictions-ban-coronavirus-covid19-canada

 

And travel to US stopped March 18th.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2020/03/18/update-canada-restricts-travel-to-the-us-in-new-coronavirus-travel-ban/#4859d99f449c

 

Or does Toronto fall in the "wait 2 more weeks" category?  With the international flights and the US loaded with it you would expect a mess up there now right?

 

RichardGibbons post earlier about early response and lockdown contact tracing is good.

 

I think the data seems to paint a much better picture than reports from hospitals. Even the PM admits today there’s a problem in terms of data collection. I think things are going to get much worse. Ontario will release models soon. Toronto density is a lot less than NYC though, with a much smaller population too.

 

Trudeau vows better gathering and release of pandemic data

“In Canada, there has been a wide discrepancy between the data that is provided by provincial authorities on a daily basis – in addition to different levels of transparency on internal projections.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-vows-better-gathering-and-release-of-pandemic-data/

 

Ontario ICUs stressed by surge of COVID-19 cases

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/171923411597

 

COVID-19 cases in Ontario ICUs far higher than official figures

 

Calls mount for Ottawa to release projections on COVID-19 spread

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-release-projections-covid-19-pandemic-1.5519253

[drzola]

Learn and Live maybe

For those of us suffering from one of four forms of Dyslexia;

 

http://pitt.edu/%7Esuper1/Descriptive%20Epidemiology/de.htm

[RichardGibbons]

Uh, yeah that sounds just fine - let's see how it all ends up, and I hope it ends soon.

 

Now I gave you the per capita death rate - as a counter to your list of leaders/countries that had done such a superior job to the USA and administration. 

At least I tried to use SOMETHING factual instead of just opinion. So if YOU don't like the metric - dismiss it - and come up with your own.

I don't really care - just give me SOMETHING somewhat concrete as the basis for your statement. I won't force you to use mine.

 

Other than this nonsense - Trump's done such a horrible job, travel bans don't save lives, he just got lucky etc, etc

 

Well, the thing is, I don't believe you. Because people have told you at least 10 different concrete things that Trump did that were terrible, and you disregarded them all in order to cheer for Trump and repeatedly trumpet the one thing he did properly.

 

So, I don't buy that the problem is that people aren't giving you enough concrete information. I think the problem is that you don't care at all about concrete information, but rather care about defending your favorite team to the exclusion of reason.

 

So, let's go with the per-capita deaths metric. It's not really fair, but it's clear that you don't care about ways it's not fair except insofar as it bolsters your case, so I'm OK with ignoring unfairness, and just assuming that it balances out between countries.  (It doesn't really, but it's very clear that any for any discussion that involves any degree of analysis of what leaders did right and wrong, "Trump blocked flights from China" is far more important to you than "Trump went on National TV, and said only 15 people had it, it wasn't a big deal, and it would vanish by April". My hypothesis is that the numbers will show that the latter is more important than the former.)

[RichardGibbons]

Because I was curious, I calculated the per-capita deaths of the countries with the top 20 GDP excluding China, Russia, India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia.  (I excluded those countries because I doubt they'll have reliable data. I imagine all of them will grossly underestimate COVID-19 deaths.)

 

Here's the current results. It's pretty amazing to me that USA is already #9 considering it's early in the process. It's also noteworthy that it's over five times worse than the country with the most similar culture, Canada.

 

#	Country	Deaths	...Per 100K
1	Italy	13157	21.76
2	Spain	9053	19.36
3	Belgium	828	7.14
4	Netherlands	1173	6.85
5	France	4032	6.18
6	Switzerland	378	4.37
7	UK	2532	3.73
8	Sweden	239	2.37
9	USA	5138	1.55
10	Germany	872	1.04
11	South Korea	169	0.33
12	Canada	109	0.29
13	Mexico	37	0.15
14	Poland	43	0.11
15	Brazil	241	0.11
16	Australia	21	0.08
17	Argentina	31	0.07
18	Japan	57	0.05
19	Taiwan	5	0.02
20	Thailand	12	0.02

 

[thowed]

Oh, hi, can we either:

 

Move this thread to the Politics section, or

 

Get back on to the virus, when we expect it to be fixed, effect on economy etc.

 

Too much Trump is bad/good right now that doesn't seem especially relevant.

 

Thanks!

 

 

[Liberty]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/opinion/jared-kushner-coronavirus.html

 

 

[meiroy]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/singapore-pm-says-more-steps-coming-on-virus-lee-speaks-at-4pm?utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

 

"Singapore to Close Schools, Most Workplaces With Rising Virus Cases"

 

I find this to be extremely worrying.

 

 

[zippy1]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/singapore-pm-says-more-steps-coming-on-virus-lee-speaks-at-4pm?utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

 

"Singapore to Close Schools, Most Workplaces With Rising Virus Cases"

 

I find this to be extremely worrying.

The temperature is 88 deg F.  So warm weather is really not going to solve the problem magically.  :'(

[cubsfan]

Richard Gibbons - nice table - at least you put together some real numbers for once instead of defending the indefensible.

In the end, you will believe what you like, but now we have some basis to compare and debate.

 

We will see where we end up. I'll be quite surprised if you end up telling me you want to end up with CV in many

other countries than the good old USA.

[cubsfan]

you disregarded them all in order to cheer for Trump and repeatedly trumpet the one thing he did properly.

 

 

Yea Richard - as if you don't IGNORE the things the President has done so you can push your bullshit narrative.

 

Believe what you like - and ignore what he has done:

 

- we have the strictest social distancing, isolation policies and quarantining in our history - bar none

- he's forcing the private sector to gear up for massive production of masks, ventilators and anti-virals

- he's stripping the FDA/CDC of their typical beauracratic policies to get something done

- he's holding daily briefings that Americans are desperate to hear

- he's TRYING to balance the economic shock against the medical experts - for the good of the country.

- and he's hell bent on transitioning manufacturing of drugs and medical supplies away from China back to this country.

 

We will see how it all turns out. I doubt that the average Americans is buying your bullshit and are solidly behind the President.

[Jurgis]

#OnlyInLithuania: Black marketers are selling pregnancy tests as COVID-19 tests...  :-\

[Liberty]

https://elemental.medium.com/hold-the-line-17231c48ff17

 

First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means that even with these measures in place, we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities. This may lead some to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. This is the normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm.

 

The enemy we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not an opinion. This is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. Stay strong and in solidarity knowing that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people continue getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t. [...]

 

You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit: If one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain. [...]

 

This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. As this epidemic continues, it will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and we may feel compelled to “cheat” with unnecessary breaches of social distancing measures. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the critical importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit and strategizing to persevere in this time of uncertainty.

[Liberty]

 

The debate and confusion about masks for #COVID19 just got some real and important data from a rigorous randomized trial in patients with coronavirus (and influenza). They work.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

 

[mcliu]

China not lying, all a big conspiracy: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-minister-says-canada-has-no-evidence-that-china-is-under/

 

Health Minister says Canada has no evidence that China is under-reporting virus impact

“Ms. Hajdu was asked about China’s conduct in the wake of a report from Bloomberg News that said U.S. intelligence officals have told the White house Beijing has concealed the full extent of the coronavirus outbreak in China, where the novel coronavirus first appeared.

“There is no indication that the data that came out of China in terms of their infection rate, and their death rate, was falsified in any way,” she told reporters at an Ottawa briefing Thursday.

Asked whether the WHO data can be considered accurate if China’s data is not, Ms. Hadju then criticized a reporter who had asked questions about the matter.

“Your question is feeding into conspiracy theories that many people have been perpetuating on the Internet,” Ms. Hajdu said. “There is no way to beat a global pandemic if we are actually not willing to work together as a globe.”

[Gregmal]

China not lying, all a big conspiracy: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-minister-says-canada-has-no-evidence-that-china-is-under/

 

Health Minister says Canada has no evidence that China is under-reporting virus impact

“Ms. Hajdu was asked about China’s conduct in the wake of a report from Bloomberg News that said U.S. intelligence officals have told the White house Beijing has concealed the full extent of the coronavirus outbreak in China, where the novel coronavirus first appeared.

“There is no indication that the data that came out of China in terms of their infection rate, and their death rate, was falsified in any way,” she told reporters at an Ottawa briefing Thursday.

Asked whether the WHO data can be considered accurate if China’s data is not, Ms. Hadju then criticized a reporter who had asked questions about the matter.

“Your question is feeding into conspiracy theories that many people have been perpetuating on the Internet,” Ms. Hajdu said. “There is no way to beat a global pandemic if we are actually not willing to work together as a globe.”

 

So this is fine and all, but it’s also something we already knew. I did find it ironic how in the beginning everyone consensus was China is lying. Then it became politically convenient to say “China did better than US”. Whether true or not, it’s kind of petty and stupid to even be creating March Madness type brackets of “who did it best” during a global crisis... but nonetheless some folks can’t be stopped. It’s the same thing with some of these journalists. Do you really expect to get anywhere productive with a Chinese official? Reasonably speaking, no. But hey, best thing you can do for the world(cough your career) is try asking gotcha questions hoping to garner YouTube clicks and maybe go viral on Twitter. There’s something detestable about folks trying to profit off a crisis.

[stahleyp]

https://moneyweek.com/economy/global-economy/601080/edward-chancellor-governments-reaction-to-the-virus-will-come-back-to

 

Worthwhile interview. thanks.

[RichardGibbons]

Yea Richard - as if you don't IGNORE the things the President has done so you can push your bullshit narrative.

 

Believe what you like - and ignore what he has done:

 

- we have the strictest social distancing, isolation policies and quarantining in our history - bar none

 

OK, but Trump didn't do this, some of the states did. Recently, he's said he won't stop social distancing until the end of April, but he didn't start it. He's pretending that if he jumps in front of a parade people will think he's the leader. (FYI, Al Gore didn't invent the Internet.)

 

In fact, it's not even clear to me that he could stop social distancing if he tried, since he didn't start it.

 

- he's forcing the private sector to gear up for massive production of masks, ventilators and anti-virals

 

Forcing? They kind of were already. I'll give you "encouraging", though. Basic minimum.

 

- he's stripping the FDA/CDC of their typical beauracratic policies to get something done

 

Is this seriously the propaganda channel's spin on things? By firing the pandemic response team in 2018, he was reducing bureaucracy? Or do you mean cutting CDC budgets? It's shocking to me that anyone would believe this is a good thing. On the other hand, it's amazing what a modern-day propaganda network can get people to believe.

 

(Maybe he should do the same thing to corporations--increase the corporate tax rate to force them to get rid of bureaucracy so that they can really get something done.)

 

- he's holding daily briefings that Americans are desperate to hear

 

He is, but he's giving them misinformation. In a pandemic, misinformation is really problematic, because it kills people.  His daily briefings have been a net negative (well, except from an entertainment perspective.)

 

- he's TRYING to balance the economic shock against the medical experts - for the good of the country.

 

Yep, Trump's the only politician on the planet who's figured out that there's both a medical emergency and an economic emergency.

 

- and he's hell bent on transitioning manufacturing of drugs and medical supplies away from China back to this country.

 

This is a good idea, though I imagine it won't have much of an effect for this pandemic. I don't think he's done this before this pandemic, but he deserves kudos for doing it afterward.

 

The fact that these items are the only thing a passionate Trump supporter can come up with kind of shows how awful he's been.

[Liberty]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-usns-comfort.html

[LongHaul]

Isn't it people own fault if they get the Coronavirus (excluding some like healthcare workers) as I see a lot of Covidiots around?

 

[RichardGibbons]

Isn't it people own fault if they get the Coronavirus (excluding some like healthcare workers) as I see a lot of Covidiots around?

 

Yes, if they act like idiots (beachgoers). No, if they don't (healthcare workers, people stuck in long-term care, etc).

 

That said, I'm not quite sure where you're going with this question.

 

Even if someone got it by being reckless, if they get send to hospital, they're using up resources that could be used for people who got it without being reckless.

 

[alpha]

Isn't it people own fault if they get the Coronavirus (excluding some like healthcare workers) as I see a lot of Covidiots around?

 

Yes it was all those elderly covid patients in nursing homes own fault. Last I checked 1/4 of all NJ nursing homes were infected. The asymptomatic spreading of this virus is what makes it difficult to contain, people don't know when they are sick/spreading it.

[cwericb]

"Trump asks medical supply firm 3M to stop selling N95 respirators to Canada"

 

Nice neighbours.

 

[ERICOPOLY]

Well, the thing is, I don't believe you. Because people have told you at least 10 different concrete things that Trump did that were terrible, and you disregarded them all in order to cheer for Trump and repeatedly trumpet the one thing he did properly.

 

In other words:

 

Believe what you like - and ignore what he has done: