Coronavirus

[LongHaul]

I agree 100% with Gregmal's last 3 posts.

 

Wearing a mask may not that all that effective in protecting you from from catching the virus, but it may help some. However it would obviously help stop those who have the virus, weather they know it or not, from spreading it.

 

So if it is even only 10-20% effective, doesn't it make sense that everyone wear a mask when in contact with others? What's the downside as long as it doesn't deplete masks available to health care workers.

 

 

One of the studies linked in that Arstechnica article Liberty posted showed that flu-like illnesses INCREASED if health care workers wore cloth masks. And cloth masks were only 3% effective in reducing virus. So the downside is actually negative (not zero).

 

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/5/4/e006577.full.pdf

 

Good point on the cloth mask study.  Cloth masks to seems to be the worst option.  N95 or surgical are much better.

I wonder how many infections the cloth masks would prevent though.

In South Korea I think I  read that the govt essentially did a mass distribution of N95 masks for pharmacies to sell cheap.  Smart move.

 

Also good masks likely decrease the viral load into the body - which may lower the chance of a really bad case and turn it into a mild one.

[cwericb]

    "Not a nice move by the US.

    But also, Canada should have been stockpiling in Jan/Feb.

 

Yea, its an interesting narrative and application of responsibility from some here. The US/Trump should have foreseen everything months ago and had massive stockpiles of everything one would be able to think of after the fact. Everyone else who is unprepared is the victim of Trump being an asshole."

 

Perhaps, but these masks could have been ordered some time ago. The real slap in the face is that Canada supplies materials to 3M to make the masks that Trump is hijacking. 3M Canada may feel the effects of this. Also Canada plays a significant part in supporting health care in the US. it is a two way street.

 

 

[Dynamic]

 

Also good masks likely decrease the viral load into the body - which may lower the chance of a really bad case and turn it into a mild one.

 

Interesting thought. Do you have any virology expertise or reference to back that up or is it a hunch?

 

You could alternatively look at it as: the virus only needs to get enough of a foothold in a cell to get reproduced and the person is then infected and the virus doubles, quadruples and so on and is then ejected from the cell into other cells where it reproduced further. The cloth mask just gives a very slightly better chance of stopping it from reaching the initial cell and causing an infection in the first place but won't affect the severity of infection if it does occur. The viral load only matters days after infection when the body is flooded with virus that has reproduced within the body and the worst problem is the cytokine storm in certain individual where the immune system overreacts with the side effect of inflaming lung tissue and impairing the rate of oxygen absorption into the blood, thereby requiring oxygen masks to increase the oxygen density gradient or forced pressure ventilators to increase it further, to try to get blood oxygen take-up back to the body's required level.

[ERICOPOLY]

South Carolina becomes latest U.S. state to issue 'stay at home' orders

 

https://news.yahoo.com/south-carolina-becomes-latest-u-213837371.html

 

 

[cwericb]

Just watched a clip of the mayor of Windsor, Ont pleading not to have the Windsor/Detroit border closed as some Detroit hospitals would be forced to close with out Canadian staff. Hijacking our medical materials could have serious consequences, We can and will get our masks elsewhere, but try to come up with a couple of thousand nurses in a hurry.

[cwericb]

Just announced.

Reason prevails and Trump releases out masks. Damn poor judgement of his to try to take the masks in the first place. Unfortunately he never seems to understand the consequences of his actions. Guess he gets the point now.

[orthopa]

South Carolina becomes latest U.S. state to issue 'stay at home' orders

 

https://news.yahoo.com/south-carolina-becomes-latest-u-213837371.html

 

This is like capitulating and buying at the top.

[RichardGibbons]

It's pretty interesting that some people have the "no big deal" perspective still, just as New York City is considering creating mass graves in parks.

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-new-york-city-considers-temporary-burial-sites-as-the-death-toll-rises

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

 

Also good masks likely decrease the viral load into the body - which may lower the chance of a really bad case and turn it into a mild one.

 

Interesting thought. Do you have any virology expertise or reference to back that up or is it a hunch?

 

You could alternatively look at it as: the virus only needs to get enough of a foothold in a cell to get reproduced and the person is then infected and the virus doubles, quadruples and so on and is then ejected from the cell into other cells where it reproduced further. The cloth mask just gives a very slightly better chance of stopping it from reaching the initial cell and causing an infection in the first place but won't affect the severity of infection if it does occur. The viral load only matters days after infection when the body is flooded with virus that has reproduced within the body and the worst problem is the cytokine storm in certain individual where the immune system overreacts with the side effect of inflaming lung tissue and impairing the rate of oxygen absorption into the blood, thereby requiring oxygen masks to increase the oxygen density gradient or forced pressure ventilators to increase it further, to try to get blood oxygen take-up back to the body's required level.

 

based upon my reading, covid virus cant replicate successfully without taking over senescent cells...hence the risk to elderly and immune-supressed, and hence the advantage of a senolytics like z-pack.  I dont think the initial infection needs to be "loaded"

[Guest cherzeca]

It's pretty interesting that some people have the "no big deal" perspective still, just as New York City is considering creating mass graves in parks.

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-new-york-city-considers-temporary-burial-sites-as-the-death-toll-rises

 

what you fail to understand is that deblasio and Cuomo are hysterical and corrupt politicians...context is everything

[Liberty]

Thread, that’s a press conference in the middle of a historic crisis:

 

[Spekulatius]

I don’t know that Trump is a Pharma salesman too. He is peddling chloroquine again now in today’s briefing “It’s a powerful drug!”. “What do you have a lose?”

[Cigarbutt]

Also good masks likely decrease the viral load into the body - which may lower the chance of a really bad case and turn it into a mild one.

Interesting thought. Do you have any virology expertise or reference to back that up or is it a hunch?

You could alternatively look at it as: the virus only needs to get enough of a foothold in a cell to get reproduced and the person is then infected and the virus doubles, quadruples and so on and is then ejected from the cell into other cells where it reproduced further. The cloth mask just gives a very slightly better chance of stopping it from reaching the initial cell and causing an infection in the first place but won't affect the severity of infection if it does occur. The viral load only matters days after infection when the body is flooded with virus that has reproduced within the body and the worst problem is the cytokine storm in certain individual where the immune system overreacts with the side effect of inflaming lung tissue and impairing the rate of oxygen absorption into the blood, thereby requiring oxygen masks to increase the oxygen density gradient or forced pressure ventilators to increase it further, to try to get blood oxygen take-up back to the body's required level.

based upon my reading, covid virus cant replicate successfully without taking over senescent cells...hence the risk to elderly and immune-supressed, and hence the advantage of a senolytics like z-pack.  I dont think the initial infection needs to be "loaded"

The following is an educated hunch. The definition of viral load can be seen from two angles. 1- There's the race perspective that happens once a virus enters the organism (race between gradually higher virus concentration (or load) and the immunity response. There tends to be a correlation between this load definition and the severity of disease (and to a large extent contagious potential). 2- There's the offending perspective that shows an independent dose sensitivity between the quantity or extent of virus exposure and risk of subsequent and severity of disease. The latter was clearly shown in previous corona episodes and the COVID-19 seems to show the same characteristic (as exemplified by the famous young and healthy whistleblower Chinese MD who died and by the risk exposure in general for healthcare workers, even if young and healthy). There is potentially an interesting conceptual parallel to be made between a virus and a host with an economic shock and an underlying economy (load, comorbidities, resilience etc). For exposed workers who inevitably get exposed to the virus and who are much more likely to have the virus elect internal body residence, the goal of the protective equipment and safety protocols is to flatten the curve to some degree, at the individual level.

@cherzeca. Unconventional theories are welcome and, in many cases, whatever impairs the immunity response which is not closely related to the infected cell itself will increase the risk of losing the battle and it seems that some people have "holes" or weaknesses in their immunity which is genetically based. I had such a deficit when I was a child (deficit against a specific group of bacteria) and I grew out of it. Also, a small load of knowledge can be very dangerous. :) If your theory about senolytics is correct at the economy level, your conclusion may be that elements that need to fail should fail in order for the green shoots to really happen.

[Guest cherzeca]

I don’t know that Trump is a Pharma salesman too. He is peddling chloroquine again now in today’s briefing “It’s a powerful drug!”. “What do you have a lose?”

 

New York Presbyterian is the best hospital in the country. you probably dont know it.  I know 3 MDs who admit/practice there who tell me that plaq/z-pack is very effective.  not 100%, but extremely effective.  ditto with my pulmonologist buddy in Jax.  so what is your problem with a little truth, spek?  does it upset your cosmology? give me an effing break

[Spekulatius]

I also wonder if the high stress environment that these doctors and nurses work under in and epidemic plays a role. Working with this protective equipment is tiring by itself and it is easy to get dehydrated because you may be sweating and it isn’t possible to drink, because you have to degown and gown up again (which can take 20 min) which you may not have. Details I know from talking to my wife who know has to deal with this as well now sometimes and believe me if you do this for weeks and work double shifts, it’s going to wear even healthy people out, which makes them more susceptible to the virus, I think.

 

And yes, I think continued viral exposure may well be the main factor. Anyways, I hoarded quite a bit of Gatorade on last shopping trip, both for my wife but also if one of us should get infected as cheap insurance.

[Guest cherzeca]

@cigarbutt

 

there is nothing unconventional about plaq/z-pack.  z-pack promotes autophagy of senescent cells, which cells are the "food" that viruses feed on.  the plaq is an auto-immune suppressant which I know a lot about, as I have PA and it doesnt work for me (I have other therapies that do work for me), it seems to work for lupus, and now it seems to work on the IL-6 waterfall that is involved in a cytokine storm, which is essentially the pneumonia that kills you when infected with covid virus.  Fauci knows nothing about real life hospital life/death therapeutics. he is a lab rat bureaucrat...not that there is anything wrong with that...

[Spekulatius]

I don’t know that Trump is a Pharma salesman too. He is peddling chloroquine again now in today’s briefing “It’s a powerful drug!”. “What do you have a lose?”

 

New York Presbyterian is the best hospital in the country. you probably dont know it.  I know 3 MDs who admit/practice there who tell me that plaq/z-pack is very effective.  not 100%, but extremely effective.  ditto with my pulmonologist buddy in Jax.  so what is your problem with a little truth, spek?  does it upset your cosmology? give me an effing break

 

I do understand that some people are using it, but it it isn’t Trumps job to decide. Soon enough idiots will start to take it because they hear about the wonder drug in Fox News. I don’t think it is smart for Trump to give medical advice.

[Cigarbutt]

@cigarbutt

there is nothing unconventional about plaq/z-pack.  z-pack promotes autophagy of senescent cells, which cells are the "food" that viruses feed on.  the plaq is an auto-immune suppressant which I know a lot about, as I have PA and it doesnt work for me (I have other therapies that do work for me), it seems to work for lupus, and now it seems to work on the IL-6 waterfall that is involved in a cytokine storm, which is essentially the pneumonia that kills you when infected with covid virus.  Fauci knows nothing about real life hospital life/death therapeutics. he is a lab rat bureaucrat...not that there is anything wrong with that...

Last time I checked, there were more than 300 ongoing treatment trials in the US alone and more will be known. Unconventionally proposed mechanisms of action, hypothetical equivalence for different diseases and anecdotal reports should not be rejected but the evidence from these hypotheses, at this point, is considered weak. Hope your PA is well controlled. In my jurisdiction, public health has recently authorized pharmacists to not distribute chloroquine when it became known that many MDs started prescribing the medication to healthy 'friends' etc while patients suffering from lupus were threatened with limited access..

[Dalal.Holdings]

Nice to see a glimmer of hope for NY, but it must not be forgotten that a huge cost was taken to produce this outcome. It did not happen on its own. To compare Flu deaths to this (which occur without any sort of extreme measures like lockdowns or travel bans) is absurd.

 

Some models continue to project that deaths have yet to rise for the U.S., solidifying the thesis that deaths are delayed and this was not as widespread months ago as many thought. It has played out in order: places that have a surge of cases have a follow up surge of mortality ~2-3 weeks later. It has not occurred simultaneously around the world, but rather in a specific sequence.

 

The question once NY cools further is--will there be a Spain to our Italy (NYC)? NYC had rapid rate of growth in U.S. due to density (R0 is higher in that case), but other areas could follow. Nothing guaranteed, but other areas are taking precautions already after witnessing NY (which many claim are excessive). And we also have to see what happens when the actions that slowed progression (lockdown) are reversed.

 

 

Anyway, the reason we are all here: investing. This pandemic (which has been repeatedly minimized by many) has already had huge impact on markets & the economy and we have not even really seen the beginning of that (i.e. earnings season about to start...), and it may have a long shadow of impact even after this has all gone.

 

Clearly an impactful event that those who took this seriously & necessary precautions 1+ month ago dodged a big body blow. Always opportunities to dip in, but remember bear markets take time to play out (unless "this time is different"). Markets meanwhile are pricing in a 'V' type economic trajectory...

[valueinvestor]

Nice to see a glimmer of hope for NY, but it must not be forgotten that a huge cost was taken to produce this outcome. It did not happen on its own. To compare Flu deaths to this (which occur without any sort of extreme measures like lockdowns or travel bans) is absurd.

 

Some models continue to project that deaths have yet to rise for the U.S., solidifying the thesis that deaths are delayed and this was not as widespread months ago as many thought. It has played out in order: places that have a surge of cases have a follow up surge of mortality ~2-3 weeks later. It has not occurred simultaneously around the world, but rather in a specific sequence.

 

The question once NY cools further is--will there be a Spain to our Italy (NYC)? NYC had rapid rate of growth in U.S. due to density (R0 is higher in that case), but other areas could follow. Nothing guaranteed, but other areas are taking precautions already after witnessing NY (which many claim are excessive). And we also have to see what happens when the actions that slowed progression (lockdown) are reversed.

 

 

Anyway, the reason we are all here: investing. This pandemic (which has been repeatedly minimized by many) has already had huge impact on markets & the economy and we have not even really seen the beginning of that (i.e. earnings season about to start...), and it may have a long shadow of impact even after this has all gone.

 

Clearly an impactful event that those who took this seriously & necessary precautions 1+ month ago dodged a big body blow. Always opportunities to dip in, but remember bear markets take time to play out (unless "this time is different"). Markets meanwhile are pricing in a 'V' type economic trajectory...

 

You can be right and market may still go up - any reason why you think it will more likely to go down? It could be a case the market already is going to look past that and it's already priced to the point it's considering 13% unemployment and 30% reduction in GDP, but not to the extent of another pandemic or outbreak e.g. second wave.

 

Curious to know your thoughts :)

[cwericb]

Some new information illustrating how Trump conducts business on behalf of the United States.

 

1. Canada signed a contract with 3M for an order of masks

2. Canada PAID 3M for the masks in advance.

3. Canada supplies 3M with materials to make masks

4. 3M produced the masks that now belong to Canada

5. Trump orders 3M not to ship masks to Canada and hold them for US use

6. Seems Canada threatened to prevent several thousand Canadian nurses from crossing the border to Detroit.

7. Facing closure of several Detroit hospitals, Trump backs down and allows masks to be shipped.

 

Walk softly and carry a big stick.

[Gamecock-YT]

South Carolina becomes latest U.S. state to issue 'stay at home' orders

 

https://news.yahoo.com/south-carolina-becomes-latest-u-213837371.html

 

Gov. McMaster is a clown. First positive case in the state was March 7th, he's been behind from the get go.

[mcliu]

Some new information illustrating how Trump conducts business on behalf of the United States.

 

1. Canada signed a contract with 3M for an order of masks

2. Canada PAID 3M for the masks in advance.

3. Canada supplies 3M with materials to make masks

4. 3M produced the masks that now belong to Canada

5. Trump orders 3M not to ship masks to Canada and hold them for US use

6. Seems Canada threatened to prevent several thousand Canadian nurses from crossing the border to Detroit.

7. Facing closure of several Detroit hospitals, Trump backs down and allows masks to be shipped.

 

Walk softly and carry a big stick.

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/3m-makes-deal-with-white-house-says-canada-will-continue-to-receive-n95-masks-1.4885409

 

Ford initially said that a shipment of three million masks was turned around at the border, and that after a conversation with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, he'd been able to secure 500,000. But Ontario government officials later said the premier was mistaken -- that the delayed shipment had only been 500,000 masks in the first place.

 

Lose-lose situation. If you allow exports and there’s domestic shortages, you get blamed for killing hospital workers. If you ban exports, you get blamed for hurting other countries.

[RichardGibbons]

Nice to see a glimmer of hope for NY, but it must not be forgotten that a huge cost was taken to produce this outcome. It did not happen on its own. To compare Flu deaths to this (which occur without any sort of extreme measures like lockdowns or travel bans) is absurd.

 

Some models continue to project that deaths have yet to rise for the U.S., solidifying the thesis that deaths are delayed and this was not as widespread months ago as many thought. It has played out in order: places that have a surge of cases have a follow up surge of mortality ~2-3 weeks later. It has not occurred simultaneously around the world, but rather in a specific sequence.

 

The question once NY cools further is--will there be a Spain to our Italy (NYC)? NYC had rapid rate of growth in U.S. due to density (R0 is higher in that case), but other areas could follow. Nothing guaranteed, but other areas are taking precautions already after witnessing NY (which many claim are excessive). And we also have to see what happens when the actions that slowed progression (lockdown) are reversed.

 

 

Anyway, the reason we are all here: investing. This pandemic (which has been repeatedly minimized by many) has already had huge impact on markets & the economy and we have not even really seen the beginning of that (i.e. earnings season about to start...), and it may have a long shadow of impact even after this has all gone.

 

Clearly an impactful event that those who took this seriously & necessary precautions 1+ month ago dodged a big body blow. Always opportunities to dip in, but remember bear markets take time to play out (unless "this time is different"). Markets meanwhile are pricing in a 'V' type economic trajectory...

 

This is a very nice summary of where we are, with a realistic balance of optimism and pessimism, IMO.  Thanks, Dalal.

[Gregmal]

LOL, now! He wants to talk investments! Can’t make this shit up. How’s your city, with your elected officials doing “leading the charge”?