Coronavirus

[RichardGibbons]

Further to your point, cherzeca, I actually think the comparable disease isn't HIV, but ebola--I imagine that was more of focus for experts recently than HIV.

 

If ebola were airborne and transmissible by asymptomatic people, you could justify doing almost anything to prevent the spread.

[Guest Schwab711]

Deaths/day by cause

[ERICOPOLY]

it seems to me that we are being advised by so-called experts who cut their teeth on HIV, which is far more deadly but in principle far more mitigable (safe sex)

 

High-risk people are taking one pill a day (PReP) and in doing so they cut their risk of HIV infection by over 92%.  They've stopped using condoms now, and we have a dramatic rise in other STIs because of it.  It is pre-exposure prophylaxis.

[drzola]

hose of you who celebrate Good Friday Do not forget to browse this Inaugural  Ecology letter see below;

 

Pope_Francis_Inaugral_Evolution_Ecology_letter_2015.pdf

[Investor20]

Deaths/day by cause

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/08/dr_birx_unlike_some_countries_if_someone_dies_with_covid-19_we_are_counting_that_as_a_covid-19_death.html

 

"DR. DEBORAH BIRX: So, I think in this country we've taken a very liberal approach to mortality. And I think the reporting here has been pretty straightforward over the last five to six weeks. Prior to that when there wasn't testing in January and February that's a very different situation and unknown.

 

There are other countries that if you had a preexisting condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem some countries are recording as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. Right now we are still recording it and we will I mean the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to market as COVID-19 infection the intent is right now that those if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death."

 

If we do that for example with certain cancers, for example prostate cancer

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25557753

To estimate the prevalence of unsuspected prostate cancer, we reviewed 19 studies of prostate cancer discovered at autopsy among 6,024 men. Among men aged 70-79, tumor was found in 36% of Caucasians and 51% of African-Americans.

 

And Schwabb if we plot everyone tested positive for prostate cancer as death due to prostate cancer it will be number one.

 

Actually a whole lot of others can be number one if we test every dead person for that ailment and follow similar procedure as Covid.

[John Hjorth]

France24.com [March 23^rd 2020] : German state to take in Italian virus patients,

Berlin Spectator [March 24^th 2020] : Germany Treats Italian and French Coronavirus Patients,

Deutsche Welle [March 27^th 2020] : Coronavirus: Treating European patients in Germany,

I Am Expat [March 31^st 2020] : Germany flies in more coronavirus patients from France and Italy, &

EFE [April 3^rd 2020] : Berlin sends ventilators to Spain, taking in patients from Italy, France.

 

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Jyllandsposten [April 8^th 2020] : Denmark sends respirators to corona hit Italy.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I speculate we will see much more of such activity within Europe along the way as certain European countries get the situation better under control, so all kinds of capacity is getting freed up, and will get reallocated within Europe.

 

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Edit : Fixed spelling of "reallocated".

[Liberty]

https://www.ft.com/content/13ddacc4-0ae4-4be1-95c5-1a32ab15956a

 

Bill Gates

 

in my lifetime this will be the greatest economic hit. But you don't have a choice. People act like you have a choice. People don't feel like going to the stadium when they might get infected. You know, it's not the government who's saying OK, just ignore this disease, and people are deeply affected by seeing these deaths, by knowing they could be part of the transmission chain, and old people, their parents, their grandparents could be affected by this.

 

And so you don't get to say, ignore what's going on here. There will be the ability, particularly in rich countries, to open up if things are done well over the next few months. But for the world at large, normalcy only returns when we've largely vaccinated the entire global population. And so although there's a lot of work on testing, a lot of work on drugs that we’re involved with, trying to achieve that ambitious goal, which has never been done for the vaccine, that rises to the top of the list.

[Cigarbutt]

France24.com [March 23^rd 2020] : German state to take in Italian virus patients,

Berlin Spectator [March 24^th 2020] : Germany Treats Italian and French Coronavirus Patients,

Deutsche Welle [March 27^th 2020] : Coronavirus: Treating European patients in Germany,

I Am Expat [March 31^st 2020] : Germany flies in more coronavirus patients from France and Italy, &

EFE [April 3^rd 2020] : Berlin sends ventilators to Spain, taking in patients from Italy, France.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Jyllandsposten [April 8^th 2020] : Denmark sends respirators to corona hit Italy.

- - - o 0 o - - -

I speculate we will see much more of such activity within Europe along the way as certain European countries get the situation better under control, so all kinds of capacity is getting freed up, and will get rellocated within Europe.

My area is not doing that well with some numbers, relatively speaking (depending where one draws a line along the humanist-evolutionary spectrum).

Because elective procedures are cancelled or postponed, there has been excess capacity at acute-care hospitals and there is an ongoing major reallocation of human resources to nursing and chronic care homes where ordinary folks are sick and dying.

John, I don't know if you're into reading but The Plague (La Peste) may be a book to consider. I'll just leave with a Wikipedia quote that is perhaps enlightening:

"The narrator of the chronicle reveals his identity and states that he tried to present an objective view of the events. The narrator reflects on the epidemic and reaches the conclusion that there is more to admire than to despise in humans."

---)Back to investing and Happy Easter.

[Liberty]

Peter Attia new interview with Paul Conti: "The psychological toll of a pandemic, and the societal problems it has highlighted"

 

https://peterattiamd.com/paulconti2/

 

 

[vinod1]

The Chinese Consul General in Sydney sent a letter to Australia's Daily Telegraph, upset about its coverage which highlighted China's role in the pandemic.

 

The newspaper decided to respond and publish the whole exchange.

 

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/via-local-commie-underlings-beijing-officially-disapproves/news-story/491b415795fbbdc526d33d5b569134a4

 

The Daily Telegraph this week received a letter from the Australian Consulate General of the People's Republic of China, who took gentle issue with our excellent coverage of the coronavirus crisis.

 

Following is a point-by-point response to the Consulate General and China’s communist dictatorship:

 

Recently the Daily Telegraph has published a number of reports and opinions about China’s response to COVID-19 that are full of ignorance, prejudice and arrogance.

 

If a state-owned newspaper in China received this kind of complaint, subsequent days would involve journalists waking up in prison with their organs harvested.

 

Tracing the origin of the virus is a scientific issue that requires professional, science-based assessment.

 

Sure it does. How professional and science-based was the claim published on March 12 by China’s foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian that “it might be US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan”?

 

The origin of the virus is still undetermined, and the World Health Organization has named the novel coronavirus “COVID-19”.

 

The World Health Organisation also appointed Zimbabwean murderer Robert Mugabe as its Goodwill Ambassador and declared on March 2 that the “stigma” of the coronavirus “is more dangerous than the virus itself”.

 

Vinod

[Liberty]

 

Why do people – including journalists – rely on http://worldometers.info for data on the pandemic?

 

It has big errors. It has been like this for weeks. And it's not getting better.

 

especially don't understand why people rely on Worldometers because there are much better alternatives.

 

E.g. the @ECDC_EU  does very thorough work every single day

 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

[Liberty]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/the-coronavirus-and-how-the-united-states-ended-up-with-nurses-wearing-garbage-bags

 

"How Did the U.S. End Up with Nurses Wearing Garbage Bags?"

 

Also, interesting paper on wastewater surveillance:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20051540v1

 

aggregate, population-wide data can help inform modeling efforts. We tested wastewater collected at a major urban treatment facility in Massachusetts and found the presence of SARS-CoV-2 at high titers in the period from March 18 - 25 using RT-qPCR. We then confirmed the identity of the PCR product by direct DNA sequencing. Viral titers observed were significantly higher than expected based on clinically confirmed cases in Massachusetts as of March 25. The reason for the discrepancy is not yet clear, however, and until further experiments are complete, these data do not necessarily indicate that clinical estimates are incorrect. Our approach is scalable and may be useful in modeling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and future outbreaks.

[mcliu]

The Chinese Consul General in Sydney sent a letter to Australia's Daily Telegraph, upset about its coverage which highlighted China's role in the pandemic.

 

The newspaper decided to respond and publish the whole exchange.

 

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/via-local-commie-underlings-beijing-officially-disapproves/news-story/491b415795fbbdc526d33d5b569134a4

 

The mainstream media here should be all over this story but it’s too busy hating on Trump. Huge disservice to the people.

 

 

Also, finally a story about Canada’s slow response:

Government documents reveal a slow start to Canada's COVID-19 response

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-government-documents-1.5528726

[Liberty]

https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/virus-appears-strike-men-overweight-people-harder-doc-1qi7wt1

 

In the emergency rooms of virus hotspots around the world, medical staff are seeing a greater number of men than women suffering severe symptoms of COVID-19, with obesity emerging as another potentially aggravating factor. But experts are still unsure why.

 

Also, Peter Attia thread on the hypoxia/hemoglobinopathy theory:

 

[Guest cherzeca]

Deaths/day by cause

 

no source indicated, which is good since it is patently false.  only 2% of covid deaths are not associated with other conditions on that chart.  also, what is a visual aid that cannot be supported by the underlying data?  isn't that an easy tell the it is BS

[Guest cherzeca]

https://www.ft.com/content/13ddacc4-0ae4-4be1-95c5-1a32ab15956a

 

Bill Gates

 

in my lifetime this will be the greatest economic hit. But you don't have a choice. People act like you have a choice. People don't feel like going to the stadium when they might get infected. You know, it's not the government who's saying OK, just ignore this disease, and people are deeply affected by seeing these deaths, by knowing they could be part of the transmission chain, and old people, their parents, their grandparents could be affected by this.

 

And so you don't get to say, ignore what's going on here. There will be the ability, particularly in rich countries, to open up if things are done well over the next few months. But for the world at large, normalcy only returns when we've largely vaccinated the entire global population. And so although there's a lot of work on testing, a lot of work on drugs that we’re involved with, trying to achieve that ambitious goal, which has never been done for the vaccine, that rises to the top of the list.

 

there is truth here, which is why a massive rollout of a serum antibody test is so important.  I expect many of us who never showed symptoms have antibodies, and we all should know this ASAP

[Liberty]

https://www.ft.com/content/13ddacc4-0ae4-4be1-95c5-1a32ab15956a

 

Bill Gates

 

in my lifetime this will be the greatest economic hit. But you don't have a choice. People act like you have a choice. People don't feel like going to the stadium when they might get infected. You know, it's not the government who's saying OK, just ignore this disease, and people are deeply affected by seeing these deaths, by knowing they could be part of the transmission chain, and old people, their parents, their grandparents could be affected by this.

 

And so you don't get to say, ignore what's going on here. There will be the ability, particularly in rich countries, to open up if things are done well over the next few months. But for the world at large, normalcy only returns when we've largely vaccinated the entire global population. And so although there's a lot of work on testing, a lot of work on drugs that we’re involved with, trying to achieve that ambitious goal, which has never been done for the vaccine, that rises to the top of the list.

 

there is truth here, which is why a massive rollout of a serum antibody test is so important.  I expect many of us who never showed symptoms have antibodies, and we all should know this ASAP

 

On the CNBC interview, Gates seems pretty lukewarm about serum testing, and thinks PCR is still much more important to get the pandemic under control and contain it:

 

 

Though of course serum testing will tell us some interesting things.

[Guest cherzeca]

https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/virus-appears-strike-men-overweight-people-harder-doc-1qi7wt1

 

In the emergency rooms of virus hotspots around the world, medical staff are seeing a greater number of men than women suffering severe symptoms of COVID-19, with obesity emerging as another potentially aggravating factor. But experts are still unsure why.

 

Also, Peter Attia thread on the hypoxia/hemoglobinopathy theory:

 

 

thanks for the Attia reference.  not often you find a doctor interested in autophagy and mTor

[Liberty]

thanks for the Attia reference.  not often you find a doctor interested in autophagy and mTor

 

His is probably my favorite podcast. You'll love his back-catalogue if you have't heard it already. He actually has whole episodes dedicated to these topics, including an interview with David Sabatini, the discoverer of mTor:

 

https://peterattiamd.com/davidsabatini/

 

Some of my favorite episodes to start:

 

https://peterattiamd.com/jasonfung/

 

https://peterattiamd.com/matthewwalker1/ (part 1 of 3)

 

https://peterattiamd.com/domdagostino/

[Guest cherzeca]

Further to your point, cherzeca, I actually think the comparable disease isn't HIV, but ebola--I imagine that was more of focus for experts recently than HIV.

 

If ebola were airborne and transmissible by asymptomatic people, you could justify doing almost anything to prevent the spread.

 

thanks for that, but to be clear, my point is that the doctors/epidemiologists making these huge policy recommendations regarding mitigation have a misguided (dangerous) mindset that was borne out of their experience with HIV.  of course, HIV and covid are not comparable along many dimensions, but the recommendation of social distancing is equivalent to safe sex in prevention objective, with one important difference....safe sex wont shut down the nation while social distancing will and has.  all the more reason why this was such a bad recommendation that covid is far less dangerous than HIV, even though more easily transmitted

[Liberty]

 

1 billion masks: https://1billionmasks.com

 

Masks help stop the spread of COVID-19, but they're hard for local governments and essential workers to get.

 

This is a way to combine forces to get high-quality masks at a good price via crowdfunding.

 

These masks are not FDA-approved for treating patients with COVID-19, but they are what most people think of as “surgical masks” and provide meaningful protection.

 

Thanks especially to @maxaltman for doing a lot of work on this!

 

If there's enough demand (i.e. 1 billion), we'd be able to offer the masks at 32 cents each delivered to Long Beach, CA.  If there's less demand, we might proceed anyway at a higher price.

[KCLarkin]

The mainstream media here should be all over this story but it’s too busy hating on Trump. Huge disservice to the people.

 

Yes, the mainstream media should be all over a silly spat between China and an Australia newspaper. That should distract us from the mass graves being dug in NYC:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/video-shows-giant-trench-getting-built-nyc-s-hart-island-n1181056

 

[Investor20]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11369033/people-europe-already-immune-coronavirus-antibodies/

 

"with 15% carrying antibodies"

 

Looking for more studies in next month to see how it ranges in different places.

[StubbleJumper]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11369033/people-europe-already-immune-coronavirus-antibodies/

 

"with 15% carrying antibodies"

 

Looking for more studies in next month to see how it ranges in different places.

 

 

 

And we think that herd immunity might kick in once we get to 40%-60% carrying antibodies?  That is very interesting news, indeed, and much faster than I would have expected.

 

 

SJ

[Cigarbutt]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11369033/people-europe-already-immune-coronavirus-antibodies/

"with 15% carrying antibodies"

Looking for more studies in next month to see how it ranges in different places.

And we think that herd immunity might kick in once we get to 40%-60% carrying antibodies?  That is very interesting news, indeed, and much faster than I would have expected.

SJ

The German Heinsberg district became a significant hot spot (linked to carnival celebrations at the end of February) so the virus had the 'opportunity' to spread. Despite this, the antibody response rate is fairly low and in no way can be extrapolated to other parts of the country, some of which haven't even 'seen' the virus yet.

Just now, some preliminary data has been released by an Austrian Institute (Austria was able to contain the virus exposure relatively well but it's a useful point of reference) and antigen testing done well from a randomization point of view (although relatively small numbers, 1544 people) revealed a prevalence of 0.33% (0.12 to 0.76%, 95% confidence interval). This number possibly underestimates seroconversion (antibodies) of asymptomatic individuals but they (and other countries) will do more good quality random testing using antibody tests. However, data published to date points to an overall very low immunity at the population level in typical countries, not even remotely close to herd immunity. The herd immunity % required may be lower than the often quoted 60% as the virus may run out of susceptible individuals (the subset of susceptible individuals may be much smaller than total population) but the 'personality' of this virus seems to show that, apart from children and the very young, it shows an unusual degree of ability for undercover operations. The economic relevance here is that there will likely be a risk of resurgence when new waves of people eventually get exposure.

 

@SJ

I've spent some time looking at the CDN data. BC and Alberta are doing better than Ontario and QC and Ontario is doing better than QC, at least so far. The difference between Ont and QC is small, both provinces showing relatively high levels of mortality in chronic care centers.

Apart from genetic, bad luck and other factors, it seems that BC did better on three levels:

1-They have a significant Chinese community who likely responded faster to international developments

2a-The government was slightly more ahead (on a relative basis) of the curve and two or three days during the exponential curve can make a huge difference

2b-Ontario and especially Quebec had unlucky timing of school breaks happening at the very worst time (international travelers)

3-it seems BC did a much better job at targeted testing and tracing in order to protect chronic care facilities

 

In case you read this and are interested, Google has published some data (crude in a way but still quite useful it seems) showing the 'compliance' to social distancing measures across jurisdictions (also available for states). There are some variations across the country but it is amazing how people may behave similarly, given similar circumstances.

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_CA_Mobility_Report_en.pdf