Coronavirus

[RichardGibbons]

https://medium.com/@tepper_jonathan/ground-zero-when-the-cure-is-worse-than-the-disease-3c513d91393d

 

It's an interesting article, making a pretty compelling case for reopening the world except for large gatherings.  I'm curious what an epidemiologist would think of it.

[ERICOPOLY]

https://medium.com/@tepper_jonathan/ground-zero-when-the-cure-is-worse-than-the-disease-3c513d91393d

10. Everyone is a potential vector for the disease but the young will barely be affected. Children should not be locked up when they are essentially protected from almost any symptoms of the disease. The sooner they get the virus, the sooner they can develop immunity.

 

 

 

 

In other words, the sooner my kids get it, the sooner I will get it, and my wife, and her coworkers, and their spouses and spouse's coworkers, etc... etc...  Children don't live at home alone, what is this author dreaming about?

[Spekulatius]

https://medium.com/@tepper_jonathan/ground-zero-when-the-cure-is-worse-than-the-disease-3c513d91393d

10. Everyone is a potential vector for the disease but the young will barely be affected. Children should not be locked up when they are essentially protected from almost any symptoms of the disease. The sooner they get the virus, the sooner they can develop immunity.

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, the sooner my kids get it, the sooner I will get it, and my wife, and her coworkers, and their spouses and spouse's coworkers, etc... etc...  Children don't live at home alone, what is this author dreaming about?

 

He is also wrong on hospitals not separating COVID from regular patients and likely many other details. Too many hobby doctors and epidemiologists now growing out of the woodwork.

 

(Says the guy going down these rabbit holes himself.)

 

 

[LC]

Reposting this about a month later, now to see the effect in Europe:

 

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

[arcube]

This is what it will take to get us back outside

 

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/12/999117/blueprint-what-it-will-take-to-live-in-a-world-with-covid-19/?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20200413&instance_id=17600&nl=dealbook&regi_id=61865762&segment_id=24954&te=1&user_id=7e0602222f76e40795ee2202f417bdec

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://medium.com/@tepper_jonathan/ground-zero-when-the-cure-is-worse-than-the-disease-3c513d91393d

10. Everyone is a potential vector for the disease but the young will barely be affected. Children should not be locked up when they are essentially protected from almost any symptoms of the disease. The sooner they get the virus, the sooner they can develop immunity.

 

 

 

 

In other words, the sooner my kids get it, the sooner I will get it, and my wife, and her coworkers, and their spouses and spouse's coworkers, etc... etc...  Children don't live at home alone, what is this author dreaming about?

 

Any parent with young kids in school/daycare understands that children bring home infections that they acquired from other households (other kids in school/daycare). It has long been shown influenza declines when schools are shut (Winter break or forced closing in hard hit areas with flu). Schools serve in many cases as a reservoir whereby infections are transmitted to new households.

 

The fact that kids tolerate this in a mild way makes it worse--they are not going to stay home sick because they may not even notice the infection. They're going to go to school and play with other kids while having mild or no symptoms. The kids that catch it will also have mild/no symptoms and bring it home to parents/grandparents/etc (new household infected).

[Gregmal]

Ive always said, keep me safe and you can read my texts, watch me shit, hear me react to a lousy earnings reports, or record me getting laid. These things are not synonymous with my freedom. I'd rather those "invasions of privacy" than shutting down my business, telling me when and where I can travel, and making me dress like its Halloween in order to get milk for my kids. To each their own though.

[SnarkyPuppy]

Ive always said, keep me safe and you can read my texts, watch me shit, hear me react to a lousy earnings reports, or record me getting laid. These things are not synonymous with my freedom. I'd rather those "invasions of privacy" than shutting down my business, telling me when and where I can travel, and making me dress like its Halloween in order to get milk for my kids. To each their own though.

 

Jesus christ.

[patience_and_focus]

https://medium.com/@tepper_jonathan/ground-zero-when-the-cure-is-worse-than-the-disease-3c513d91393d

 

It's an interesting article, making a pretty compelling case for reopening the world except for large gatherings.  I'm curious what an epidemiologist would think of it.

 

No its not. It relies on the first and second points at the end of the article heavily for it to work.

 

1. TEST the population extensively to isolate asymptomatic carriers.

2. TRACE contacts and maintain quarantine for those who have tested positive.

 

None of these were done anywhere properly except in Singapore, Hong Kong and to some extent in South Korea, as the article states. Then the article goes on to say that "better late than never" and proposes to open up the society simultaneously with scaling up (1) & (2). The problem is that with epidemics is all about outpacing the virus and what works in the beginning stop working later until we get ahead of the virus. Since (1) and (2) were not done earlier in US (utter failures), one has to slow down the spread of virus to buy time for testing and tracing to catch-up the otherwise exponential spread. Only when the testing and tracing has been established to be efficient, we can slowly open up. Nobody is arguing that we should not open up, but it would be foolish to do it when we cannot outpace the virus spread with test and trace. We are nowhere close.

[cobafdek]

Anthony Fauci MD.  And war criminal, behind the War Criminal.  Fauci has effectively joined the campaign to re-elect the President.

 

"Fauci said that the 'first and only time' that he and coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx talked to Trump about 'shutdown'-like mitigation policies, 'the president listened to the recommendation and went to the mitigation.'”

 

"When Fauci and Birx went to Trump a second time advising him to extend the White House’s social-distancing guidelines through the end of April, Trump 'went with the health recommendations,' Fauci said."

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-anthony-fauci-clarifies-comments-that-sparked-firing-fears.html

 

Anyone surprised that Fauci's statements (above) were left out of the Washington Post's account of today's briefing?:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-calls-fauci-a-wonderful-guy-the-day-after-promoting-a-tweet-that-called-for-him-to-be-fired/2020/04/13/4f450d2a-7d9d-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

[RichardGibbons]

 

No its not. It relies on the first and second points at the end of the article heavily for it to work.

 

1. TEST the population extensively to isolate asymptomatic carriers.

2. TRACE contacts and maintain quarantine for those who have tested positive.

 

None of these were done anywhere properly except in Singapore, Hong Kong and to some extent in South Korea, as the article states. Then the article goes on to say that "better late than never" and proposes to open up the society simultaneously with scaling up (1) & (2). The problem is that with epidemics is all about outpacing the virus and what works in the beginning stop working later until we get ahead of the virus. Since (1) and (2) were not done earlier in US (utter failures), one has to slow down the spread of virus to buy time for testing and tracing to catch-up the otherwise exponential spread. Only when the testing and tracing has been established to be efficient, we can slowly open up. Nobody is arguing that we should not open up, but it would be foolish to do it when we cannot outpace the virus spread with test and trace. We are nowhere close.

 

Yeah, obviously it requires test and trace. But it doesn't make much sense to say, "we haven't done this well in the past, therefore this article sucks because it suggests we do it in the future."

 

Like, no kidding that the USA screwed up early and that it isn't capable of doing test and trace today. While you claim he's saying to open the country today and simultaneously scale up test and trace, the author doesn't say that. In fact, he implies the opposite. Test and trace are two of the Ten Commandments. Commandments because those two things are super important to do, because they're not just irrelevant details that we can ignore if we don't have the capability today.

 

The reason the article's interesting and compelling is because it lays out what needs to be in place to start opening things up, including a effective test and trace strategy.  So if you're looking to see if we're ready to open up, one criteria might be whether you've got the resources to do test and trace on the expected number of new infections.

 

I agree with everyone else though--saying that it's OK to open schools because kids don't die doesn't make much sense, and doesn't fit with his "avoid events where people mix with a lot of different people" reasoning.

[Spekulatius]

Do we actually still do trace and test here anymore? Seems like we have pretty much given up on tracing.

I have a buddy in Germany who told me some of his relatives tested positive and they did trace down contacts during the last two weeks prior to the positive test results. So at least in Germany, they still attempt tracing.

[Liberty]

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/04/trump-claims-total-authority-to-override-governors-force-states-to-reopen/

[Liberty]

"The council, which is not expected to include health officials"

 

https://apnews.com/2bead1fe5861efed1342f426a0f5044b

[Jurgis]

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/04/trump-claims-total-authority-to-override-governors-force-states-to-reopen/

 

"When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total and that's the way it's got to be. It's total, and the governors know that,"

 

Herr Dictator announced: "The beatings will continue until morale improves."

[Guest cherzeca]

Do we actually still do trace and test here anymore? Seems like we have pretty much given up on tracing.

I have a buddy in Germany who told me some of his relatives tested positive and they did trace down contacts during the last two weeks prior to the positive test results. So at least in Germany, they still attempt tracing.

 

the trains also run on time in Germany

[Liberty]

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/04/trump-claims-total-authority-to-override-governors-force-states-to-reopen/

 

"When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total and that's the way it's got to be. It's total, and the governors know that,"

 

Herr Dictator announced: "The beatings will continue until morale improves."

 

Trump, Feb. 28: "The press is in hysteria mode" over coronavirus.

 

Trump video, April 13: "The media minimized the risk from the start."

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/04/trump-claims-total-authority-to-override-governors-force-states-to-reopen/

 

"When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total and that's the way it's got to be. It's total, and the governors know that,"

 

Herr Dictator announced: "The beatings will continue until morale improves."

 

Lol...this is fine tho. I am more worried about the government telling me I have to shutter my business during a pandemic out of concern for “public safety” and the infringement on my liberties than I am of a demagogue making some clear power grabs.

 

This guy only runs the Presidency like a family biz—wut could go wrong ? Someone call that savant Kushner, I need some professional medical/epidemiological/economic advice.

[ERICOPOLY]

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/04/trump-claims-total-authority-to-override-governors-force-states-to-reopen/

 

"When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total and that's the way it's got to be. It's total, and the governors know that,"

 

Herr Dictator announced: "The beatings will continue until morale improves."

 

Trump, Feb. 28: "The press is in hysteria mode" over coronavirus.

 

Trump video, April 13: "The media minimized the risk from the start."

 

 

Yay!  I love opposites day!

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/04/trump-claims-total-authority-to-override-governors-force-states-to-reopen/

 

"When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total and that's the way it's got to be. It's total, and the governors know that,"

 

Herr Dictator announced: "The beatings will continue until morale improves."

 

Trump, Feb. 28: "The press is in hysteria mode" over coronavirus.

 

Trump video, April 13: "The media minimized the risk from the start."

 

 

First it was a “hoax” exaggerated by the lame stream media, now it was minimized too much by the media. Which is it derp?

 

Maybe when he means “minimized by the media”, he is exclusively referring to the leaders of his fan club Hannity and Limbaugh...let’s not forget his own minimizing just weeks ago...

[Liberty]

Thread:

 

There's a growing body of data to strongly suggest #COVID19 predisposes to both venous and arterial thromboembolism due to excessive inflammation, hypoxia, immobilization and diffuse intravascular coagulation. This may explain some of rapid decline patients experience 1/n

 

Provider urgently need good data to guide practice. Reports on incidence of thrombotic complications are limited. Doctors weren't routinely doing pulmonary embolism studies or echocardiograms, in part because protocols were to limit patient contact as a way to control spread. 2/n

 

One new study looked at 184 ICU patients with proven #COVID19 pneumonia of whom 23 died (13%), 22 were discharged alive (12%), 139 (76%) were still on ICU on April 5th. It found 31% incidence of thrombotic complications in ICU patients. Remarkably high 3/n

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049384820301201

 

Other analysis from China describe cardiomyopathy. There's limited reporting on the cases. Growing awareness of thrombotic events raise question of whether some of the incidence of heart strain in setting of hypoxia could be result of pulmonary emboli? 4/n

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

 

One etiology may be #COVID19-associated coagulopathy (CAC). Patients with severe COVID-19 infection can develop clotting events meeting criteria for DIC criteria with fulminant activation of coagulation, resulting in widespread microvascular thrombosis 5/n

 

https://www.hematology.org/covid-19/covid-19-and-coagulopathy

 

Data previously published by hematologists from Wuhan, China indicated that abnormal coagulation parameters can be a useful predictor of prognosis in pneumonia due to #COVID19 (Tang et al, 2020). 6/n

 

https://b-s-h.org.uk/media/18151/dic-score-in-covid-19-pneumonia_19-03-2020.pdf

 

This clotting phenomenon may, in certain cases, explain rapid decompensation some doctors describe, where patients will become acutely hypoxic and require urgent intubation. Providers tell me they are now more routinely doing studies for pulmonary emboli in these settings. 7/n

 

This should be subject of urgent follow up by @CDCGov. We should be aggregating, making available in @CDCMMWR, detailed clinical experience with U.S. patients. With almost 600,000 diagnosed cases, we greatly need more data on collected American clinical experience with #COVID19.

 

Also: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/14/21219021/scott-gottlieb-coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-economy-recession

 

Also: https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1250063051182747651

 

Cuomo’s been calling daily, even hourly, begging for everything, most of which should have been the state’s responsibility, such as new hospitals, beds, ventilators, etc. I got it all done for him, and everyone else, and now he seems to want Independence! That won’t happen!

 

Presidential--with a capital 'P'.

 

Somebody jelly of President Cuomo, wants to capture the political upside of Cuomo's stellar management (but "takes no responsibility" for any of the downside--Mr. 'Zero skin in the game' Trump!).

[John Hjorth]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1250063051182747651

 

Cuomo’s been calling daily, even hourly, begging for everything, most of which should have been the state’s responsibility, such as new hospitals, beds, ventilators, etc. I got it all done for him, and everyone else, and now he seems to want Independence! That won’t happen!

 

Presidential--with a capital 'P'.

 

Somebody jelly of President Cuomo, wants to capture the political upside of Cuomo's stellar management (but "takes no responsibility" for any of the downside--Mr. 'Zero skin in the game' Trump!).

 

Somehow, this reminds me about americans saying the EU and Euro being built with inherent flaws.

[rb]

Feel better?

 

[DooDiligence]

Feel better?

 

Damn, I thought Wilbur had permanently retired to his crypt.