Coronavirus

[clutch]

There is no need to do all these complicated calculations to compare flu and Covid.

 

Take Sweden with low mitigation efforts.

 

They had 213 deaths/million or 72000 deaths for 340 million (US population).

 

Take Japan with low mitigation efforts.

 

They had 3 deaths/million or 1,020 deaths for 340 million (US population).

 

When Dr. Fauci said Covid has 1.0% deaths rate, ten times more than Flu, that to most people would mean 10 times 50,000 flu deaths or predicted 500,000 deaths for US without mitigation.

 

The 500K deaths prediction by Dr. Fauci is off with Sweden by 7 fold, let alone Japan by 500 fold, both countries with low mitigation efforts.

 

And Japan had very low mitigation.

 

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/826fe0930a43-only-18-of-japanese-stopped-going-to-work-due-to-covid-19-poll.html?via=webuproar

Only 18 percent of people in Japan have stopped going to work due to the novel coronavirus, the lowest level in 26 countries and territories covered in a recent survey.

The United States stood at 32 percent.

 

You cannot project what has been observed in those countries. The deaths/million figure will change over time.

 

If we have no vaccine, that number will become similar across the developed world over time, perhaps normalized with respect to the population age distribution. Maybe some countries have better treatments and that will help. However, those countries with low cases/deaths will eventually catch up, because it seems impossible to irradicate this virus via containment.

[Liberty]

Anyway, Trump was asking a question to the scientist "may be you can, may be you can't", means he actually doesnt know it.

 

Nice attempt at defending him.

 

He doesn't know anything, and that's the problem, he's in charge, he's supposed to have been getting daily briefings on this from experts for months, and he's still an imbecile who confuses the population instead of informing them, and creates disorder in the public health response rather than lead it and create coordination and cooperation, and is surrounded by idiots because only idiots pass the loyalty test and all the real experts have to do everything they can not to be driven away. He knows less about the situation than some random person on the street who's been watching he news for a month, and that's a big problem.

[Investor20]

There is no need to do all these complicated calculations to compare flu and Covid.

 

Take Sweden with low mitigation efforts.

 

They had 213 deaths/million or 72000 deaths for 340 million (US population).

 

Take Japan with low mitigation efforts.

 

They had 3 deaths/million or 1,020 deaths for 340 million (US population).

 

When Dr. Fauci said Covid has 1.0% deaths rate, ten times more than Flu, that to most people would mean 10 times 50,000 flu deaths or predicted 500,000 deaths for US without mitigation.

 

The 500K deaths prediction by Dr. Fauci is off with Sweden by 7 fold, let alone Japan by 500 fold, both countries with low mitigation efforts.

 

And Japan had very low mitigation.

 

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/826fe0930a43-only-18-of-japanese-stopped-going-to-work-due-to-covid-19-poll.html?via=webuproar

Only 18 percent of people in Japan have stopped going to work due to the novel coronavirus, the lowest level in 26 countries and territories covered in a recent survey.

The United States stood at 32 percent.

 

You do know that this is just the beginning of the pandemic, its been hitting most western countries for 1-2 months, and it's a bit early to calculate IFR and CFR, right?

 

Also, to compare Japan with the US is funny. Here's a very collectivist country where people follow rules to a fault, don't shake hands, wear masks, where everything is constantly cleaned and social distance is the normal state of things... Does that sound like the US?

 

Liberty, that is not the problem.  The problem in US is our "experts" got everything wrong.  If you take anything our "experts" told us and do opposite, we would be better.

 

1) They started saying no human-human transmission.

2) Then they started saying no asymptomatic transmission.

3) Then they started saying not many asymptomatic people.

4) Then they told us Dont wear masks.

5) Then Dr. Fauci said we will eventually do antibody tests but that is not the need of the hour.

6) Then they were telling us summer (heat, humidity & sunlight) has not much effect on Covid.

 

While Japanese started with masks right away in January.  While in late February Pelosi is going running around China town how it is good to go to shopping and walking tours and Blasio is recommending in early March what movies to go to, Japanese were wearing masks, disinfecting hands, subways, etc.

 

It is not just a fluke that Japan had 3 deaths/million and US has 152/million.

 

Our "experts" have been so good.  Getting 0 out of 6 right. 

[Guest Schwab711]

The problem in US is our "experts" got everything wrong.  If you take anything our "experts" told us and do opposite, we would be better.

 

1) They started saying no human-human transmission.

2) Then they started saying no asymptomatic transmission.

3) Then they started saying not many asymptomatic people.

4) Then they told us Dont wear masks.

5) Then Dr. Fauci said we will eventually do antibody tests but that is not the need of the hour.

6) Then they were telling us summer (heat, humidity & sunlight) has not much effect on Covid.

 

While Japanese started with masks right away in January.  While in late February Pelosi is going running around China town how it is good to go to shopping and walking tours and Blasio is recommending in early March what movies to go to, Japanese were wearing masks, disinfecting hands, subways, etc.

 

It is not just a fluke that Japan had 3 deaths/million and US has 152/million.

 

Our "experts" have been so good.  Getting 0 out of 6 right.

 

You are drinking the bleach.

 

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf

[Liberty]

There is no need to do all these complicated calculations to compare flu and Covid.

 

Take Sweden with low mitigation efforts.

 

They had 213 deaths/million or 72000 deaths for 340 million (US population).

 

Take Japan with low mitigation efforts.

 

They had 3 deaths/million or 1,020 deaths for 340 million (US population).

 

When Dr. Fauci said Covid has 1.0% deaths rate, ten times more than Flu, that to most people would mean 10 times 50,000 flu deaths or predicted 500,000 deaths for US without mitigation.

 

The 500K deaths prediction by Dr. Fauci is off with Sweden by 7 fold, let alone Japan by 500 fold, both countries with low mitigation efforts.

 

And Japan had very low mitigation.

 

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/826fe0930a43-only-18-of-japanese-stopped-going-to-work-due-to-covid-19-poll.html?via=webuproar

Only 18 percent of people in Japan have stopped going to work due to the novel coronavirus, the lowest level in 26 countries and territories covered in a recent survey.

The United States stood at 32 percent.

 

You do know that this is just the beginning of the pandemic, its been hitting most western countries for 1-2 months, and it's a bit early to calculate IFR and CFR, right?

 

Also, to compare Japan with the US is funny. Here's a very collectivist country where people follow rules to a fault, don't shake hands, wear masks, where everything is constantly cleaned and social distance is the normal state of things... Does that sound like the US?

 

Liberty, that is not the problem.  The problem in US is our "experts" got everything wrong.  If you take anything our "experts" told us and do opposite, we would be better.

 

1) They started saying no human-human transmission.

2) Then they started saying no asymptomatic transmission.

3) Then they started saying not many asymptomatic people.

4) Then they told us Dont wear masks.

5) Then Dr. Fauci said we will eventually do antibody tests but that is not the need of the hour.

6) Then they were telling us summer (heat, humidity & sunlight) has not much effect on Covid.

 

While Japanese started with masks right away in January.  While in late February Pelosi is going running around China town how it is good to go to shopping and walking tours and Blasio is recommending in early March what movies to go to, Japanese were wearing masks, disinfecting hands, subways, etc.

 

It is not just a fluke that Japan had 3 deaths/million and US has 152/million.

 

Our "experts" have been so good.  Getting 0 out of 6 right.

 

You're just giving talking points, not discussing actual science. The experts reported a preliminary report from China super early, and they didn't say there was no human to human transmission, they said there was no evidence of it yet. Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absense, and early on, it's normal not to know what is going on. You need the evidence, you can't just make stuff up. This was reversed very quickly as more evidence came in and China stopped hiding/denying the situation (like Trump did). It still took weeks for Trump to stop saying it was a hoax, that it was totally contained and airtight and would disappear soon.

 

I won't go through your whole list, but except for the masks, it's also just a bunch of talking points, not actual arguments.

 

The mask thing was likely a lie, but they probably felt they had to do it because the PPE situation was such a clusterfuck that they couldn't have a run on it leaving frontline people exposed. The solution there was to actually have been prepared for this and for the federal government to not wait weeks to use the stockpile and defense production act, and coordinate the states to bring supply where it was most needed rather than force states to hoard and compete against each other, and to have a clear message to the population encouraging them to make/get cloth masks like in the Czec republic, rather than have Trump say that he won't wear masks and that they're totally optional.

[Gregmal]

Once again, the loonie left is so wrapped up in their derangement, they miss a completely inarguable and blatantly legitimate criticism...

 

Trump is now CRITICIZING Brian Kemp for opening too soon! A week after lambasting governors for not opening!

 

Much more valid than all these... "hmmm if I take this out of context statement, and throw this! spin on it, it looks really bad!" rhetoric

[Liberty]

You are drinking the bleach.

 

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf

 

So many people are drinking bleach and eating their fish-grade chloroquine these days... A good reminder that half the population has an IQ under 100.

[Liberty]

Once again, the loonie left is so wrapped up in their derangement, they miss a completely inarguable and blatantly legitimate criticism...

 

Trump is now CRITICIZING Brian Kemp for opening too soon! A week after lambasting governors for not opening!

 

Much more valid than all these... "hmmm if I take this out of context statement, and throw this! spin on it, it looks really bad!" rhetoric

 

Trump is always doing one thing and its opposite so that later he can claim he was right by pointing at one thing and gaslighting us about the other.

 

A few days ago he was inciting protests in multiple states and journalists found links from the white house to the anti-lockdown protests.

 

I think it's likely Fauci or something like that threatened to resign (and maybe start talking to the media about what's going on inside the WH) if Trump didn't at least try to manage the reopening a bit and not let it be a free for all (again).

 

The dude was just telling people that maybe they should inject Lysol on a nationwide press conference, a week after he talked about antibiotics on the topic of a virus, and you think he's coming up with the rational plan for all this?

[Guest Schwab711]

Once again, the loonie left is so wrapped up in their derangement, they miss a completely inarguable and blatantly legitimate criticism...

 

Trump is now CRITICIZING Brian Kemp for opening too soon! A week after lambasting governors for not opening!

 

Much more valid than all these... "hmmm if I take this out of context statement, and throw this! spin on it, it looks really bad!" rhetoric

 

It's frustrating that some still think political party is correlated with quality of response (I have the broader public in mind, not this board). The best responses have been deliberate and honest, even if they aren't ultimately the best outcomes. De Blasio is another that has consistently screwed up. He seems to panic and go to an extreme response at each turn. It's everything that bothers me about Trump.

[DooDiligence]

Once again, the loonie left is so wrapped up in their derangement, they miss a completely inarguable and blatantly legitimate criticism...

 

Trump is now CRITICIZING Brian Kemp for opening too soon! A week after lambasting governors for not opening!

 

Much more valid than all these... "hmmm if I take this out of context statement, and throw this! spin on it, it looks really bad!" rhetoric

 

I want honesty & not bullshit.

 

I want leadership that acknowledges responsibility,

and moves towards solutions rather than attacking

those who attempt to steer us towards truth.

 

Anyone who supports this moron is clearly unhinged from reality.

[Dalal.Holdings]

It's frustrating that some still think political party is correlated with quality of response (I have the broader public in mind, not this board). The best responses have been deliberate and honest, even if they aren't ultimately the best outcomes. De Blasio is another that has consistently screwed up. He seems to panic and go to an extreme response at each turn. It's everything that bothers me about Trump.

 

De Blasio is terrible and should be removed from office. Many democrats agree with this. I wholeheartedly agree with this. People died because of the mayor’s incompetence, and many more may die if he holds his parade.

 

However this is something you will never hear Trumpers say about Trump though—as he famously said: he can shoot a man on 5th ave and they will be at his side. He has undying loyalty of some. He is not an idiot—he made the 5th ave claim knowing full well the truth—he is a master puppeteer (works on many people) and you can indeed fool some of the people all of the time.

[Cigarbutt]

Question about US healthcare, from an investment perspective. Being outside the US I don’t understand US healthcare, but could impact companies and consumers. So I thought I’d ask on this thread, which has a lot US posters.

Who pays for treatment of COVID? Is it the health insurance? What about those who are now unemployed? Is this a big hit for insurers or employers who self insure. If employers stay open, are they open to workplace safety claims?

Are the sick supposed to pay for treatment themselves, and if so do we expect much more indebted consumers coming out of this? I read and article saying testing is now free, but treatment would be 70k out of pocket even for those insured. This would make most people prefer to rough it out in those majority of cases when the symptoms are mild. Not sure of the accuracy of that. TIA for any answer.

So many questions (and unknowables) and so little time!

It looks like health insurers will face much higher costs from COVID-19 but other costs may go down. Anyways, they can always catch up with premium increases after.

Hospitals and providers will take a huge hit from less elective procedures which are higher margin items.

More people are likely to forgo care but that also may result in unexpected net results at the population level. Costs will somehow (with various deductibles and co-pays along the way) be transmitted from the employer to the individual with presently devised bailouts (of the Medicaid type, and depending on the state), recently adopted (and to be defined) legal provisions and likely other public bailouts to come.

Workplace safety claims is an issue that needs to be resolved.

The CV has exposed some strengths of the system but also the deep deficiencies. What's happening tells a lot more about the host than about the disease.

It's hard to see an outcome that doesn't involve more public oversight and possibly outright nationalization (whether one likes it or not).

 

So what about investments?

In the long term, this simply means that all health-related stocks' returns will gravitate to utility-like regulated returns. Players that clearly don't bring value to the system are likely to suffer (there are many of those now).

There will be opportunities for under-the-radar small private entities (that may be allowed to grow before private equity shows up) that may be able to bridge gaps during the changing roles and balance between the private market and central public entities.

 

If you're looking for some kind of scorecard of CV vs systemic response, see:

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/comparing-six-health-care-systems-pandemic

This discussion could end up with specific names if there is sufficient interest.

[Gregmal]

Once again, the loonie left is so wrapped up in their derangement, they miss a completely inarguable and blatantly legitimate criticism...

 

Trump is now CRITICIZING Brian Kemp for opening too soon! A week after lambasting governors for not opening!

 

Much more valid than all these... "hmmm if I take this out of context statement, and throw this! spin on it, it looks really bad!" rhetoric

 

I want honesty & not bullshit.

 

 

Outside of blowing up the entire system, this is impossible. Every generation of politicians seems to have to play dirtier than the previous. Social media only upped the ante. No better way to destroy the importance of context and content than limiting blurbs to 160 word soundbites and 3 sentence gotcha zingers.

[Guest cherzeca]

Why are some of you people so obsessed with being proven right (or: making sure we all know somebody else was wrong)?  It's so painfully obvious none of us were right, not even remotely, and nobody was "less wrong" than anybody else. As data comes in the truth appears to be more and more somewhere in the middle between what we were all saying.  Can't we just accept that and move on by posting interesting articles etc...  I mean, do whatever you want, but it's so stupid.

 

great question, and here is where I am coming from.

 

I believe this nationwide shutdown in the face of covid is the biggest public policy failure since the Vietnam war.  there are similarities such as excessive reliance on "experts", and refusal to tailor our response to the "enemy" presented (Vietnam=guerrila war), covid (primary threat to elderly).

 

I believe it sets a terrible precedent for govt intervention into private lives and private ordering on a massively broad and intrusive scale.

 

now perhaps all this exercise of govt power might be necessary if covid presented "no other choice".  but the more you examine the situation, the more you realize there were other choices.  but if you simply accept the conclusions of "experts" and their (wildly inaccurate) epidemiological models, then you are paving the way for an elimination of liberty on an even more massive scale next time....and there will always be next time for the govt and politicians to exercise excessive power...even beyond ordering 50,000 American men (mostly) to their deaths for no gain or reason.

 

so it is important to be right, when confronted with massive govt power grabs.

[Liberty]

Once again, the loonie left is so wrapped up in their derangement, they miss a completely inarguable and blatantly legitimate criticism...

 

Trump is now CRITICIZING Brian Kemp for opening too soon! A week after lambasting governors for not opening!

 

Much more valid than all these... "hmmm if I take this out of context statement, and throw this! spin on it, it looks really bad!" rhetoric

 

It's frustrating that some still think political party is correlated with quality of response (I have the broader public in mind, not this board). The best responses have been deliberate and honest, even if they aren't ultimately the best outcomes. De Blasio is another that has consistently screwed up. He seems to panic and go to an extreme response at each turn. It's everything that bothers me about Trump.

 

In this interview with an expert on the 1918 flu, who was part of the Bush task force to improve pandemic readiness, he says that the pandemic response plans called for no politicians to be in charged, because whoever it is, a large fraction of the population would take what they says with skepticism for political reasons. They said a highly respected apolitical scientist should be in charge, in this case Dr. Fauci.

 

https://peterattiamd.com/johnbarry/

 

But Trump can't not have the spotlight on himself, so that part of the plan went out...

 

Barry had interesting things to say about the US federal response to this crisis in the podcast..

[arcube]

The problem in US is our "experts" got everything wrong.  If you take anything our "experts" told us and do opposite, we would be better.

 

1) They started saying no human-human transmission.

2) Then they started saying no asymptomatic transmission.

3) Then they started saying not many asymptomatic people.

4) Then they told us Dont wear masks.

5) Then Dr. Fauci said we will eventually do antibody tests but that is not the need of the hour.

6) Then they were telling us summer (heat, humidity & sunlight) has not much effect on Covid.

 

While Japanese started with masks right away in January.  While in late February Pelosi is going running around China town how it is good to go to shopping and walking tours and Blasio is recommending in early March what movies to go to, Japanese were wearing masks, disinfecting hands, subways, etc.

 

It is not just a fluke that Japan had 3 deaths/million and US has 152/million.

 

Our "experts" have been so good.  Getting 0 out of 6 right.

 

You are drinking the bleach.

 

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf

 

Great link to the PDF Schwab. Thanks.

[rb]

You guys should not talk junk without knowing what you are saying.

 

Photodynamic therapy is an established therapy.  Its used to treat cancers in lung or digestive systems by shinning light onto the tumors using optical fiber inserted into the body with light wavelength that the tumor is sensitive. Read about it below.

 

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/lung-cancer/treatment/photodynamic-therapy-pdt

 

You could definitely shine UV light that the virus is sensitive to in lungs.  Is it effective?  I dont know.

 

Anyway, Trump was asking a question to the scientist "may be you can, may be you can't", means he actually doesnt know it.

Ok, I won't talk. I'll let someone who knows more than me.

 

“Neither sitting in the sun, nor heating will kill a virus replicating in an individual patient’s internal organs,” said Penny Ward, a professor in pharmaceutical medicine at Kings College London and chair of the Education and Standards Committee of the Faculty of Pharmaceutical Medicine.“Drinking bleach kills. Injecting bleach kills faster. Don’t do either!” she added.

 

Btw, if Trump doesn't know something, don't you think that the time and place to ask it is in private and before he addresses the nation? But tell me more about common sense.

[KCLarkin]

great question, and here is where I am coming from.

 

I believe this nationwide shutdown in the face of covid is the biggest public policy failure since the Vietnam war.  there are similarities such as excessive reliance on "experts", and refusal to tailor our response to the "enemy" presented (Vietnam=guerrila war), covid (primary threat to elderly).

 

I believe it sets a terrible precedent for govt intervention into private lives and private ordering on a massively broad and intrusive scale.

 

now perhaps all this exercise of govt power might be necessary if covid presented "no other choice".  but the more you examine the situation, the more you realize there were other choices.  but if you simply accept the conclusions of "experts" and their (wildly inaccurate) epidemiological models, then you are paving the way for an elimination of liberty on an even more massive scale next time....and there will always be next time for the govt and politicians to exercise excessive power...even beyond ordering 50,000 American men (mostly) to their deaths for no gain or reason.

 

so it is important to be right, when confronted with massive govt power grabs.

 

If you kept to opinions, then this would be perfectly acceptable. You can say: lockdowns are a bad economic policy. That personal freedoms trump public health. That more people will die due to an economic depression. Fine. Those are all reasonable arguments.

 

Instead, you post bullshit and claim it is the truth. I just made a post, using your numbers for "mortality rate", that showed that the epidemiological models were surprisingly accurate. And you turn around and say that the models were wildly inaccurate.

 

You show that the "mortality rate" for COVID in NYC is 0.67% and so it "just like the flu". When we point out that this actually means that it is ~10 times more deadly than the flu, you move on to your next bullshit "fact".

 

Unfortunately, viruses don't play politics and they don't respect "alternative facts".

[Jurgis]

All Trump supporters please start injecting bleach intravenously asap, kk thx OK. Your sacrifice is appreciated. We will remember you fondly.

[Liberty]

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2765270

 

Conclusions and Relevance  The preliminary findings of this study suggest that the higher CQ dosage should not be recommended for critically ill patients with COVID-19 because of its potential safety hazards, especially when taken concurrently with azithromycin and oseltamivir. These findings cannot be extrapolated to patients with nonsevere COVID-19.

[clutch]

All Trump supporters please start injecting bleach intravenously asap, kk thx OK. Your sacrifice is appreciated. We will remember you fondly.

 

You guys are really fucked in US if this is the typical attitude of a non Trump supporter. Start a civil war, already.

[Liberty]

 

 

It's not lockdown that's clobbering the economy.

 

It's CORONAVIRUS.

 

This is the biggest problem for the "reopen everything" crowd.

 

Even if you remove all of the coronavirus restrictions, not many people are willing to actually go back to normal activities.

 

[Gregmal]

All Trump supporters please start injecting bleach intravenously asap, kk thx OK. Your sacrifice is appreciated. We will remember you fondly.

 

You guys are really fucked in US if this is the typical attitude of a non Trump supporter. Start a civil war, already.

 

Eh I dont think it really is. Theres some jurgoffs here and then, on both sides, the ones that always make the news rallying in Charlottesville or assaulting cops, but the majority I think have a common ground of discontent with establishment politicians, the same end goal/objective, but just different political leanings which in the current environment prove quite irritable to each other given the constant news flow and propaganda. Like a never ending mosquito bite.

[Liberty]

Meanwhile, because his priorities are in order, Trump is trying to increase shipping rates to hurt Amazon (and everybody who order online) and bully the Washington Post during a time when everybody is ordering more online:

 

 

Trump just told the press pool that the US Postal Service should raise its shipping prices by four times -- and as leverage he threatened to withhold a congressionally-approved emergency coronavirus loan to USPS

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/23/10-billion-treasury-loan-usps/

[Casey]

This thread lol