Coronavirus

[cwericb]

“The fact that we are even having this conversation (and its only this week's conversation in a stream of similar conversations) shows how unfit this President is for any type of leadership. It's the President for crissakes!!  It's the one person we shouldn't have to worry about telling their citizens to poison themselves and then backtracking.  I used to tell my kids they could grow up to be President because it was so respected and esteemed. Now it's become a joke and reflects on America.”

 

Yes! That is the point.

 

Do Trump supporters not realize that he has made the USA the laughing stock of the whole world? He is an embarrassment to the country and its reached the point that other world leaders just try to humour him while laughing behind his back.

 

Is there anyone out there that doesn't realize that the man clearly has mental issues? That certainly does not reflect well on those who continue to make excuses for him. Wake up before it is too late.

[arcube]

Another fkup (possibly knowingly) by the Chinese! Still possibly under reported.

 

New study casts more doubt on true scale of China’s coronavirus outbreak

 

https://fortune.com/2020/04/24/china-coronavirus-data-real-lancet-study/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=ceo-daily&utm_content=2020042410am

 

Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China: a modelling study

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30089-X/fulltext

 

[clutch]

NYC:  11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%.  just like the flu.

 

I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they?

 

This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/

 

So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu!

 

I love the stupidity!  the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate.  what is your problem, Larkin?

 

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

 

I agree that this is a meaningful study. It’s large enough and reasonably random. There might be a bias in just choosing people outside vs at home but it is likely not a strong one.

0.67% morbidity is ~7x deadlier than the flu though. The flu kills between 10-50k annually and infects ~30M (roughly ) so thats in the 0.1% ballpark. In addition, it’s much more infective.

 

On thing I overlooked when looking at the IFR rate is that death cases have a long tail. They typically occur many weeks after the infection and display of symptoms Example of this was the Diamond Princess when only 6 death were reported first, but subsequently ended up with 14 dead. While that is a small sample size, I think the likely conclusion is that the IFR rate is higher than the ~0.7% rate calculated probably by as much than a factor 2

 

It’s all highly uncertain at this point and ballpark estimates, but better than nothing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess

 

...and normalize with respect to the age. The median age of the passengers was 69. I believe all of the deaths were passengers.

 

So, if you assume IFR of ~1.4% for that old-age population group, the IFR for the entire population would be much, much lower.

[Spekulatius]

NYC:  11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%.  just like the flu.

 

I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they?

 

This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/

 

So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu!

 

I love the stupidity!  the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate.  what is your problem, Larkin?

 

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

 

I agree that this is a meaningful study. It’s large enough and reasonably random. There might be a bias in just choosing people outside vs at home but it is likely not a strong one.

0.67% morbidity is ~7x deadlier than the flu though. The flu kills between 10-50k annually and infects ~30M (roughly ) so thats in the 0.1% ballpark. In addition, it’s much more infective.

 

On thing I overlooked when looking at the IFR rate is that death cases have a long tail. They typically occur many weeks after the infection and display of symptoms Example of this was the Diamond Princess when only 6 death were reported first, but subsequently ended up with 14 dead. While that is a small sample size, I think the likely conclusion is that the IFR rate is higher than the ~0.7% rate calculated probably by as much than a factor 2

 

It’s all highly uncertain at this point and ballpark estimates, but better than nothing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess

 

...and normalize with respect to the age. The median age of the passengers was 69. I believe all of the deaths were passengers.

 

So, if you assume IFR of ~1.4% for that old-age population group, the IFR for the entire population would be much, much lower.

 

Yes, but the crew is substantial ( think it’s roughly 1 crew member for 2  passengers) and the crews median age is 36. Also, the older folks on a cruise are probably healthier than average for their age. So count it all in and it biased old but not that old. It still doesn’t matter, the point I was trying to make is that many death occurred  way later.

[RichardGibbons]

Yes, but the crew is substantial ( think it’s roughly 1 crew member for 2  passengers) and the crews median age is 36. Also, the older folks on a cruise are probably healthier than average for their age. So count it all in and it biased old but not that old. It still doesn’t matter, the point I was trying to make is that many death occurred  way later.

 

This is a noteworthy data point that I didn't keep up on--I thought it was always 6, not 14. Thanks for the update, Spekulatius .

[Spekulatius]

Yes, but the crew is substantial ( think it’s roughly 1 crew member for 2  passengers) and the crews median age is 36. Also, the older folks on a cruise are probably healthier than average for their age. So count it all in and it biased old but not that old. It still doesn’t matter, the point I was trying to make is that many death occurred  way later.

 

This is a noteworthy data point that I didn't keep up on--I thought it was always 6, not 14. Thanks for the update, Spekulatius .

 

Well it’s a small dataset and shouldn’t be taken for face value it rather as a ballpark idea one what the distribution may look like. Once we get more data coming in, we might revise. Softly the ~1% IFR rate is a reasonable ballpark I tighten 0.5% or 15-, but it’s unlikely to be 0.1% or 5% at this point.

 

None of this is set in stone. Doctors will get better at fighting this as we get a better understanding of how the disease works and how to prevent the downward spiral that seems to affect some patients.

[clutch]

Yes, but the crew is substantial ( think it’s roughly 1 crew member for 2  passengers) and the crews median age is 36. Also, the older folks on a cruise are probably healthier than average for their age. So count it all in and it biased old but not that old. It still doesn’t matter, the point I was trying to make is that many death occurred  way later.

 

This is a noteworthy data point that I didn't keep up on--I thought it was always 6, not 14. Thanks for the update, Spekulatius .

 

Well it’s a small dataset and shouldn’t be taken for face value it rather as a ballpark idea one what the distribution may look like. Once we get more data coming in, we might revise. Softly the ~1% IFR rate is a reasonable ballpark I tighten 0.5% or 15-, but it’s unlikely to be 0.1% or 5% at this point.

 

None of this is set in stone. Doctors will get better at fighting this as we get a better understanding of how the disease works and how to prevent the downward spiral that seems to affect some patients.

 

The crew was substantial and none of them died.

 

Regardless, you can estimate the IFR by the age groups in the ship, and if you just consider the passenger population (which would reflect the sub-population the median age of 69) -- you get an IFR of 2.5% (14/567 infected).

 

If it's 2.5% IFR for the median age of 69 in the general population, that's really good news, considering the ratio of deaths between such a population group vs. its complement.

 

Based on the data so far, it seems the death rate for 50 years or older is about 25-30x higher than the 49 or younger on average. (source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)

 

So if you assume 2.5% IFR for the 50 years or order, the IFR for younger would be about 0.083-0.1%!

 

That is a very, very low number.

 

More of these data indicate that we should focus on protecting the elderly.

 

(I know this wasn't your original point; just thought it was useful exercise)

[Gregmal]

Isn't it clear by now that theres so much speculative information out there that folks can literally draw whatever conclusion they want by piecing together all these conflicting sources and "expert" opinions? Pick a side, any side, and regardless, theres enough out there to equally support the exact opposite stance. Face masks are good. Face masks are bad. Virus only hits old people. 50% of patients in country XZY are young people. This will be the Spanish Flu. This will be the flu. Gilead's drug works. Gilead's drug doesnt work. China did a horrible job. China did a great job. Its kind of silly.

 

 

The more pressing question of the day....how many of you moral higher ground folks who are repulsed by Trump plan on voting for Biden the rapist? Just when you thought the DNC couldn't come up with a worse candidate than Hillary....At least Hillary had the semi cool Robin Wright House of Cards thing and the "I'm a strong women who whipped my rapist husband into shape" thing going for her. Turns out Biden is basically just a pussy version of Trump.

[DooDiligence]

Isn't it clear by now that theres so much speculative information out there that folks can literally draw whatever conclusion they want by piecing together all these conflicting sources and "expert" opinions? Pick a side, any side, and regardless, theres enough out there to equally support the exact opposite stance. Face masks are good. Face masks are bad. Virus only hits old people. 50% of patients in country XZY are young people. This will be the Spanish Flu. This will be the flu. Gilead's drug works. Gilead's drug doesnt work. China did a horrible job. China did a great job. Its kind of silly.

 

 

The more pressing question of the day....how many of you moral higher ground folks who are repulsed by Trump plan on voting for Biden the rapist? Just when you thought the DNC couldn't come up with a worse candidate than Hillary....At least Hillary had the semi cool Robin Wright House of Cards thing and the "I'm a strong women who whipped my rapist husband into shape" thing going for her. Turns out Biden is basically just a pussy version of Trump.

 

You've officially become the house troll here.

[Castanza]

Isn't it clear by now that theres so much speculative information out there that folks can literally draw whatever conclusion they want by piecing together all these conflicting sources and "expert" opinions? Pick a side, any side, and regardless, theres enough out there to equally support the exact opposite stance. Face masks are good. Face masks are bad. Virus only hits old people. 50% of patients in country XZY are young people. This will be the Spanish Flu. This will be the flu. Gilead's drug works. Gilead's drug doesnt work. China did a horrible job. China did a great job. Its kind of silly.

 

 

The more pressing question of the day....how many of you moral higher ground folks who are repulsed by Trump plan on voting for Biden the rapist? Just when you thought the DNC couldn't come up with a worse candidate than Hillary....At least Hillary had the semi cool Robin Wright House of Cards thing and the "I'm a strong women who whipped my rapist husband into shape" thing going for her. Turns out Biden is basically just a pussy version of Trump.

 

You've officially become the house troll here.

 

Greg’s not wrong. Dalala already said “I’d rather vote for a guy who stutters.” I’m waiting for the Biden voters to say “we’re voting for the lesser of two evils.”

 

It’s time Americans take a look at the two party system. The last 40 candidates have been complete and utter shit. Not a single person in the last and current election cycle have been “leaders”. All a bunch of hacks with shady pasts and motives. If you’re voting for Biden, I don’t want to hear a single negative thing about Trump from here on out. They are literally two versions of the same individual.

[cwericb]

“Biden the rapist”

 

Yup, here we go again...

 

Do you want to share the proof that Biden raped someone? I haven't seen any.

Or are you taking a page out of DJT’s book and slinging any mud you can at someone who might be a threat to the guy you have been defending for at least the past 3 years?

Since you appear to be referring to something (not rape) that MAY happened 30 years ago, where were you and what were you doing 30 years ago?

 

" They are literally two versions of the same individual."

 

Biden vs Trump?  You have got to be kidding.

[cwericb]

It’s time Americans take a look at the two party system.

 

Absolutely.

[Spekulatius]

If credible evidence is presented that Biden is indeed a rapist, he is done as a Candidate.

 

FWIW, this topic doesn’t belong in this Thread as it is OT.

[Spekulatius]

This is a excellent post I another board on how South Korea was able to control the Virus . Key was to put the hammer doesn’t early.

https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502

[DooDiligence]

Isn't it clear by now that theres so much speculative information out there that folks can literally draw whatever conclusion they want by piecing together all these conflicting sources and "expert" opinions? Pick a side, any side, and regardless, theres enough out there to equally support the exact opposite stance. Face masks are good. Face masks are bad. Virus only hits old people. 50% of patients in country XZY are young people. This will be the Spanish Flu. This will be the flu. Gilead's drug works. Gilead's drug doesnt work. China did a horrible job. China did a great job. Its kind of silly.

 

 

The more pressing question of the day....how many of you moral higher ground folks who are repulsed by Trump plan on voting for Biden the rapist? Just when you thought the DNC couldn't come up with a worse candidate than Hillary....At least Hillary had the semi cool Robin Wright House of Cards thing and the "I'm a strong women who whipped my rapist husband into shape" thing going for her. Turns out Biden is basically just a pussy version of Trump.

 

You've officially become the house troll here.

 

Greg’s not wrong. Dalala already said “I’d rather vote for a guy who stutters.” I’m waiting for the Biden voters to say “we’re voting for the lesser of two evils.”

 

It’s time Americans take a look at the two party system. The last 40 candidates have been complete and utter shit. Not a single person in the last and current election cycle have been “leaders”. All a bunch of hacks with shady pasts and motives. If you’re voting for Biden, I don’t want to hear a single negative thing about Trump from here on out. They are literally two versions of the same individual.

 

I've already said that I'm voting for the lesser of 2 evils.

Trumps brand of evil is infinitely more dangerous, and yes,

the 2 party system blows.

 

also

 

Term limits.

 

One and done, never 2 serve at the national level again.

 

I left twitter over 2 months ago to avoid these kinds of discussions / troll fests.

Never had the urge to read or post in the politics section here.

Too bad this thread turned into a shit show.

 

Over & out (do your best to draw me back in troll masters).

[Gregmal]

“Biden the rapist”

 

Yup, here we go again...

 

Do you want to share the proof that Biden raped someone? I haven't seen any.

Or are you taking a page out of DJT’s book and slinging any mud you can at someone who might be a threat to the guy you have been defending for at least the past 3 years?

Since you appear to be referring to something (not rape) that MAY happened 30 years ago, where were you and what were you doing 30 years ago?

 

" They are literally two versions of the same individual."

 

Biden vs Trump?  You have got to be kidding.

 

Well, I was curious to see if it was defended, or denied. Why do we need proof to label Biden a rapist but we dont for Trump? Funny how that works isn't it?

 

Otherwise, without the burden of proof, I think a rational man can see both are similar. Trump is just the abusive, entitled boyfriend who constantly cheats and views women as possessions. Biden is the creepy best friend whom she runs to as the "shoulder to cry on" when abusing entitled bf hurts her. Gladly letting her cry on his shoulder as he looks down her shirt and gets semi hard from the female attention, wishing all along he was the bf who gets all the ass. They are both clearly dirtbags when it comes to women.

 

Trump inherited dads fortune, Joe spent his life taking from taxpayers. They both spent(and spend) 90% of their time misleading people and promising things they knew they may or may not be able to deliver in order to get what they want.

 

Both have entitled dipshit kids living off dad's reputation. To be fair, at least the arrogant and entitled Trump kids seem otherwise pretty ok. I've known a ton of kids like that and believe me, they can turn out a lot worse then just being rich airheads and pompous douches....they turn out to be...like Hunter Biden..

 

I hope they have the debates. It will be absolutely glorious seeing these two go at it.

 

There are many similarities.

 

 

[Casey]

This is a excellent post I another board on how South Korea was able to control the Virus . Key was to put the hammer doesn’t early.

https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502

 

Are you sure it's the right link?

[RichardGibbons]

I hope they have the debates. It will be absolutely glorious seeing these two go at it.

 

I swear, it'll be the most incomprehensible Presidential debate of all time.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Isn't it clear by now that theres so much speculative information out there that folks can literally draw whatever conclusion they want by piecing together all these conflicting sources and "expert" opinions? Pick a side, any side, and regardless, theres enough out there to equally support the exact opposite stance. Face masks are good. Face masks are bad. Virus only hits old people. 50% of patients in country XZY are young people. This will be the Spanish Flu. This will be the flu. Gilead's drug works. Gilead's drug doesnt work. China did a horrible job. China did a great job. Its kind of silly.

 

 

The more pressing question of the day....how many of you moral higher ground folks who are repulsed by Trump plan on voting for Biden the rapist? Just when you thought the DNC couldn't come up with a worse candidate than Hillary....At least Hillary had the semi cool Robin Wright House of Cards thing and the "I'm a strong women who whipped my rapist husband into shape" thing going for her. Turns out Biden is basically just a pussy version of Trump.

 

You've officially become the house troll here.

 

Greg’s not wrong. Dalala already said “I’d rather vote for a guy who stutters.” I’m waiting for the Biden voters to say “we’re voting for the lesser of two evils.”

 

This is a joke right? I vote for a non-sociopath President over a sociopath any day. It's not a lesser of two evils. The man can only put self first and that's dangerous. Romney, GWB, Bush Sr, McCain, whoever would be much better and have demonstrated the ability to put country before self.

 

It doesn't mean these people are selfless monks, but when push comes to shove (i.e. a pandemic that kills 50k Americans), they can put aside their self interest for a bit.

 

BTW:

https://www.businessinsider.com/women-accused-trump-sexual-misconduct-list-2017-12

 

At least 25 women have accused President Donald Trump of sexual misconduct since the 1970s.

 

Remember, he "grabs women".

 

We all know how the game is played by Trumpers:

 

- We need to see all her e-mails or Obama's birth certificate, but it's ok if we don't see Trump's tax returns. Oh! look at this thing in her e-mails! Oh, his birth certificate does not seem to be an original copy! Let's spend all our time scrutinizing this person and not Trump.

 

- Sure, he puts his son in law and daughter in roles in the WH that they have no business in where American lives are at stake, but did you hear about Hunter Biden's role on some Ukrainian company's board? Outrageous!

 

- Biden has 1 sexual assault accusation that should end his candidacy, but Trump's 25 accusers are all full of it!

 

Double standards for Trump's zombie followers. Trump's offenses tend to be >10x worse, but he always gets a pass because "he tells it like it is" (unless of course he is being "sarcastic")!

 

Back to the politics section for you!

[Spekulatius]

This is a excellent post I another board on how South Korea was able to control the Virus . Key was to put the hammer doesn’t early.

https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502

 

Are you sure it's the right link?

 

Works for me, but I am also member . I logged out and repost:

https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502

[Casey]

This is a excellent post I another board on how South Korea was able to control the Virus . Key was to put the hammer doesn’t early.

https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502

 

Are you sure it's the right link?

 

Works for me, but I am also member . I logged out and repost:

https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502

 

Ahh, thanks. I see I just didn't read far enough.

[Spekulatius]

Huh? Trump approved of Georgia’s plan to reopen before bashing it

https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/04/24/trump-georgia-reopening

[Dalal.Holdings]

Huh? Trump approved of Georgia’s plan to reopen before bashing it

https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/04/24/trump-georgia-reopening

 

The Art of the Deal:

 

Georgia reopening succeeds = win for Trump

 

Georgia reopening fails = win for Trump

 

There is only upside to be had among his supporters, no downside for Mr. "I take no responsibility" President. He is a master puppeteer I'll give him that.

[samwise]

Question about US healthcare, from an investment perspective. Being outside the US I don’t understand US healthcare, but could impact companies and consumers. So I thought I’d ask on this thread, which has a lot US posters.

Who pays for treatment of COVID? Is it the health insurance? What about those who are now unemployed? Is this a big hit for insurers or employers who self insure. If employers stay open, are they open to workplace safety claims?

Are the sick supposed to pay for treatment themselves, and if so do we expect much more indebted consumers coming out of this? I read and article saying testing is now free, but treatment would be 70k out of pocket even for those insured. This would make most people prefer to rough it out in those majority of cases when the symptoms are mild. Not sure of the accuracy of that. TIA for any answer.

So many questions (and unknowables) and so little time!

It looks like health insurers will face much higher costs from COVID-19 but other costs may go down. Anyways, they can always catch up with premium increases after.

Hospitals and providers will take a huge hit from less elective procedures which are higher margin items.

More people are likely to forgo care but that also may result in unexpected net results at the population level. Costs will somehow (with various deductibles and co-pays along the way) be transmitted from the employer to the individual with presently devised bailouts (of the Medicaid type, and depending on the state), recently adopted (and to be defined) legal provisions and likely other public bailouts to come.

Workplace safety claims is an issue that needs to be resolved.

The CV has exposed some strengths of the system but also the deep deficiencies. What's happening tells a lot more about the host than about the disease.

It's hard to see an outcome that doesn't involve more public oversight and possibly outright nationalization (whether one likes it or not).

 

So what about investments?

In the long term, this simply means that all health-related stocks' returns will gravitate to utility-like regulated returns. Players that clearly don't bring value to the system are likely to suffer (there are many of those now).

There will be opportunities for under-the-radar small private entities (that may be allowed to grow before private equity shows up) that may be able to bridge gaps during the changing roles and balance between the private market and central public entities.

 

If you're looking for some kind of scorecard of CV vs systemic response, see:

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/comparing-six-health-care-systems-pandemic

This discussion could end up with specific names if there is sufficient interest.

 

Thanks CB. Investments I was looking at were NSP and BBSI. low PE, high ROE, decent growth prospects, but short term hit from COVID, hopefully not fatal to these companies. These companies basically handle HR, payroll, and benefits for small employers. Part of the profit is insurance. Both seem to offer workers comp themselves , and NSP seems to have some profit/loss impacts from health insurance. There is a cost from the shutdown's reduced employment, usual for these companies in any economic slowdown, but also a possible loss from the insurance side.

 

Thats what made me wonder about the cost of treatment, who covers it etc. The US is pretty litigious, and the healthcare costs were already a high percentage of GDP. Not sure what impacts the current costs will have on health insurance providers, and ultimately on the costs of renewing/getting insurance. Good point that all other health costs may go down, so the net effect could be small or even positive.

 

Also not sure how liable employers are if employees get infected at work. Like those meat plants that have shut. Can the employers be sued for not providing enough safety at work? Since the infection will probably form a cluster, frequency of claims can be high. A few deaths, and the exposure can be every large.

 

[Guest cherzeca]

Gilder

 

"So let’s stop pretending that our policies have been rational and need to be phased out, as if they once had a purpose. They should be reversed summarily and acknowledged to be a mistake, perpetrated by statisticians with erroneous computer models.

 

Perhaps then we can learn from this experience with the flaws of expertise not to shut down the economy again for the totally bogus “crisis” of climate change."

 

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/04/25/this_pandemic_is_over_lets_stop_the_economic_suicide_and_get_back_to_work_490025.amp.html