Coronavirus

[cobafdek]

Another IYI not keeping up!

 

No, Taleb is being cheeky in an attempt to appear smart on twitter. If you don't assume what is called a Markov process, then you are left in a much worse (and less sensible) place.

 

Written like a true bot!  Only bots live in Markov processes.  The rest of us are in the real world.

 

The real world is non-ergodic.  In a non-ergodic world, the so-called "fallacies" and "biases" of behavioral economics are not necessarily irrational.

[Castanza]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/politics/rick-bright-coronavirus-whistleblower.html

 

We are a well functioning democracy.

 

We are a well functioning democracy.

 

:-X :-X :-X

 

Questionable contracts have gone to “companies with political connections to the administration,” the complaint said, including a drug company tied to a friend of Jared Kushner’s, President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser. It said Dr. Bright was retaliated against by his superiors, who pushed him out because of “his efforts to prioritize science and safety over political expediency.”

 

Did we drain the swamp yet? His hacienda indeed. And his zombie followers fall for it (thinking he's looking out for the 'little guy') every single time.

 

Now prepare to watch this whistleblower's name dragged through the mud by the zombies willing to do their master's bidding.

 

You’re voting Biden right?  ;D

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/politics/rick-bright-coronavirus-whistleblower.html

 

We are a well functioning democracy.

 

We are a well functioning democracy.

 

:-X :-X :-X

 

Questionable contracts have gone to “companies with political connections to the administration,” the complaint said, including a drug company tied to a friend of Jared Kushner’s, President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser. It said Dr. Bright was retaliated against by his superiors, who pushed him out because of “his efforts to prioritize science and safety over political expediency.”

 

Did we drain the swamp yet? His hacienda indeed. And his zombie followers fall for it (thinking he's looking out for the 'little guy') every single time.

 

Now prepare to watch this whistleblower's name dragged through the mud by the zombies willing to do their master's bidding.

 

You’re voting Biden right?  ;D

 

Yeah. If he makes Hunter in charge of doling out vents/PPE when 70k Americans are dead, you can come back and gloat. Till then, you got nothing valuable (other than extreme levels of false equivalence fallacy) to add to this topic.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Another IYI not keeping up!

 

So this guy who goes around calling other forum members idiots is adding what value here?

[clutch]

Don't look elsewhere guys, this is the swamp right here.

[Castanza]

https://www.wtae.com/article/upmc-chief-medical-officer-what-we-cannot-do-is-extended-social-isolation/32393261

 

Head of UPMC in PA

 

- 110 of 5500 beds occupied by covid patients

- Average age of covid death in PA is 84

- 65% of covid patients in PA come from nursing home facilities.

 

[ERICOPOLY]

Another IYI not keeping up!

 

So this guy who goes around calling other forum members idiots is adding what value here?

 

Line caught tuna commands a higher market value.  So yes, trolling adds value.

[ERICOPOLY]

Another IYI not keeping up!

 

So this guy who goes around calling other forum members idiots is adding what value here?

 

You just have to remember what it's like being 5 years old.  The name calling all makes sense then.

[Liberty]

Good thread by Andy Slavitt:

 

 

COVID Update May 6: Like many countries we picked a strategy to beat COVID-19. We just decided not to stick to it

 

“It’s a long and difficult road & after we climbed halfway we decided it was too hard and decided to roll back down the Hill.” 2/

 

#StayHome  was a first step to flatten the curve. We reduced the infection rate likely from a number between 2 and 3 to closer to 1.

 

Given exponential math & limited supplies & resources, this likely saved 10s if not 100s of thousands of lives

 

But we only flattened the curve, we didn’t crush it. (And the virus is still there.) And we only flattened  on average. In most places, the virus is still growing

 

That thinking boils down to: it’s too hard. We’ve got to open up the economy because it’s too hard to get enough testing & contact tracing to make people feel safe.6/

 

There are is a major fallacy here. There is no plan by Chris Christie or otherwise to bring the economy back without addressing our public health crisis.

 

The reason is he can’t. Without a credible plan to address the public health crisis, tell me how consumers start buying cars, small businesses sign leases & employers start hiring?

 

They don’t say. They just complain about the “other” position.10/

 

This may build into a big food fight to preoccupy & entertain us with something besides dealing with the actual virus

 

There is, however, a plan to slowly steadily bring the economy back, but by solving the public health crisis. It was put forward by...the Trump White House all of 3 weeks ago. It had gates & stages & hinged conditions on the ground. But none of them have been met

 

Rather than wait, Trump grew impatient. He wants life to go back to the way it was before the pandemic. He wants the economy growing.

 

I don’t know how to explain it to him but let me try.13/

 

This is not easy. But it’s not impossible either. Other countries are managing keep people safe & open their economies. (If you think this is because of country size or testing see the 2 tweets that follow)

 

Let’s take a look.

 

*Hong Kong— oh, but they’re an island. Yes. So is Manhattan. Contagion on a dense island can be a disaster.

*New Zealand— oh, but they’re remote. Well they had a color coded warning system like we announced. But they stuck with it.18

 

*Korea— oh but they’re too authoritarian. Actually no. Everything was opt-in/optional.

*Germany— yeah, but she’s a scientist. And where did they get all those tests.

*Greece— we could never show that discipline!

*Czech Republic— but they have to wear these arcane masks!19/

 

Point is— this can be done. Not perfectly. Not without loss of life. Not with a perfect economy but with testing & tracing & masks, it’s a strategy if you can stick to it. 20/

 

We had a strategy. Trump gave it a few weeks & then decided “liberate!”

 

Basically, he’s a quitter.22/

 

One thing is clear. Our government has a higher tolerance for unnecessary deaths than other countries. School shootings, shootings in church, at concerts, in night clubs. People in nursing homes. Meat plants. Prisons. 25/

 

As @davidfrum told me, it’s impossible to get an A in managing a pandemic. There are no silver bullets. But it’s really not hard to get a B.

 

Listen to experts. Create a plan. Show empathy. Stick with it. It’s the best you can be expected to do. 26/

[LongHaul]

Andy Slavitt is 100% right. Is it that complicated to copy the best?

 

Leadership is incredibly important - a leader can take you over a cliff or pull a drowning team out of a river to safety.

People follow leaders.  Especially those of the same ideology.  I would follow Trump if he was rational and effective in this pandemic and I do have a big allowance for mistakes in the fog of war with this.  I have made a ton on the virus and try to keep learning.

 

There are a lot of psychological bias' at play with leaders- Authority, Social proof, Association, Doubt Avoidance, Stress and reason respecting that are at work.  That is why any leader needs to be an exemplar.  Trump has been much of the opposite.

 

Trump has and likely will continue to do a horrible job on many, many metrics.  (I do hope he wises up on the masks).

 

Trump is still not wearing a mask.  He is still not wearing a mask.  He is still not wearing a mask. 

Oh - did I mention he is still not wearing a mask.  Even when he goes to a mask factory.  Even when he is around others that may have it.

China and South Korea and tons of data now show wearing masks is super effective.  The first lady promotes masks (I give her credit!).

 

Trump's #1 job is reducing the R0.  That is by far the most important thing for him.  And it has been a total joke.

I am sure he has incredibly capable scientists at the CDC, etc but where are they?  Why can't I listen to more of them?  Why doesn't he let them lead?

If I am totally outclassed in an area I stand aside to let someone more effective do their job.

 

A few other points.

1.  The false negative rate for Covid-19 tests could be up to 30%.  Might be problems with when they do the swabs.

That means that anyone that has any symptoms needs to quarantine for 14 days. 

 

2.  If I was in Canada or Australia I agree with TwoCities - I would expect a Depression.  Was primed for one anyway and then pandemic hit.

 

3.  Great Depression - there were a lot of benefits of the Great Depression - built character and a whole generation of bankers and consumers and businesses learned to be prudent with money.  No financial crisis for over 30 years after.  Not that I wish for another but perhaps when lessons have been forgotten or ignored one has to come back so people can learn. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Andy Slavitt is 100% right. Is it that complicated to copy the best?

 

Leadership is incredibly important - a leader can take you over a cliff or pull a drowning team out of a river to safety.

People follow leaders.  Especially those of the same ideology.  I would follow Trump if he was rational and effective in this pandemic and I do have a big allowance for mistakes in the fog of war with this.  I have made a ton on the virus and try to keep learning.

 

The problem is we had a leader who initially didn’t want to spook markets during an election year (what happens when you have a sociopath who only puts self interest first). There was also and continues to be high level incompetence, and putting people in charge who are not qualified, but loyal to POTUS like Jared boy.

 

Garbage in, garbage out.

 

Some state leaders seem to be more competent and less driven by pure self interest though.

[Jurgis]

A startup I am investing in is looking for expert virologist for consultation on how their product may be made to be used for Covid. Please private message me if you have the qualifications and are interested. (Might be small chance, but decided to ask.)

[Cigarbutt]

A startup I am investing in is looking for expert virologist for consultation on how their product may be made to be used for Covid. Please private message me if you have the qualifications and are interested. (Might be small chance, but decided to ask.)

You may try this guy:

https://www.mcgill.ca/newsroom/raymond-tellier

He has relevant experience (including with SARS) and uses a balanced approach.

It's not clear if private ventures are his thing but given enough $, who knows?

[rb]

Seriously what is it with the Americans?

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-mcdonalds-workers-shot-by-customer-over-dining-area-dispute-2020-05-07?mod=bnbh

[Liberty]

What a leader.

 

"Sporadic for you, maybe, but I've heard otherwise.. they tell me..."

 

 

Meanwhile, the blatant corruption continues:

 

 

[LC]

Seriously what is it with the Americans?

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-mcdonalds-workers-shot-by-customer-over-dining-area-dispute-2020-05-07?mod=bnbh

 

We've turned into a decidedly average country with a wide tailed distribution  ;D ;D

[orthopa]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

 

Viral load seems to matter a lot for severity of symptoms. It's why places like Hong Kong quarantine infected people in hotels and away from family.

 

We may very well find looking at the time line in NYC that staying at home and significantly increasing time in the household was the gas on the fire that put things out of control in NYC. Most peoples' guard is down at home, no mask, no washing hands, close contact. Not to mention huddling millions in a small square footage.

 

Staying at home and not leaving the house in retrospect maybe found to be the worst thing to have done. What do NYC, Italy, Spain, and people of color have in common? Lots of multigenerational families. Bringing thousands/millions of asymptomatic or sick people in the house likely infected those most at risk in the household. If found to be the case hopefully its not employed as a measure this fall/winter

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-home-isolation.html

[orthopa]

Good thread by Andy Slavitt:

 

 

COVID Update May 6: Like many countries we picked a strategy to beat COVID-19. We just decided not to stick to it

 

“It’s a long and difficult road & after we climbed halfway we decided it was too hard and decided to roll back down the Hill.” 2/

 

#StayHome  was a first step to flatten the curve. We reduced the infection rate likely from a number between 2 and 3 to closer to 1.

 

Given exponential math & limited supplies & resources, this likely saved 10s if not 100s of thousands of lives

 

But we only flattened the curve, we didn’t crush it. (And the virus is still there.) And we only flattened  on average. In most places, the virus is still growing

 

That thinking boils down to: it’s too hard. We’ve got to open up the economy because it’s too hard to get enough testing & contact tracing to make people feel safe.6/

 

There are is a major fallacy here. There is no plan by Chris Christie or otherwise to bring the economy back without addressing our public health crisis.

 

The reason is he can’t. Without a credible plan to address the public health crisis, tell me how consumers start buying cars, small businesses sign leases & employers start hiring?

 

They don’t say. They just complain about the “other” position.10/

 

This may build into a big food fight to preoccupy & entertain us with something besides dealing with the actual virus

 

There is, however, a plan to slowly steadily bring the economy back, but by solving the public health crisis. It was put forward by...the Trump White House all of 3 weeks ago. It had gates & stages & hinged conditions on the ground. But none of them have been met

 

Rather than wait, Trump grew impatient. He wants life to go back to the way it was before the pandemic. He wants the economy growing.

 

I don’t know how to explain it to him but let me try.13/

 

This is not easy. But it’s not impossible either. Other countries are managing keep people safe & open their economies. (If you think this is because of country size or testing see the 2 tweets that follow)

 

Let’s take a look.

 

*Hong Kong— oh, but they’re an island. Yes. So is Manhattan. Contagion on a dense island can be a disaster.

*New Zealand— oh, but they’re remote. Well they had a color coded warning system like we announced. But they stuck with it.18

 

*Korea— oh but they’re too authoritarian. Actually no. Everything was opt-in/optional.

*Germany— yeah, but she’s a scientist. And where did they get all those tests.

*Greece— we could never show that discipline!

*Czech Republic— but they have to wear these arcane masks!19/

 

Point is— this can be done. Not perfectly. Not without loss of life. Not with a perfect economy but with testing & tracing & masks, it’s a strategy if you can stick to it. 20/

 

We had a strategy. Trump gave it a few weeks & then decided “liberate!”

 

Basically, he’s a quitter.22/

 

One thing is clear. Our government has a higher tolerance for unnecessary deaths than other countries. School shootings, shootings in church, at concerts, in night clubs. People in nursing homes. Meat plants. Prisons. 25/

 

As @davidfrum told me, it’s impossible to get an A in managing a pandemic. There are no silver bullets. But it’s really not hard to get a B.

 

Listen to experts. Create a plan. Show empathy. Stick with it. It’s the best you can be expected to do. 26/

 

In all honesty I still surprised that some people still feel like there ever really was a chance to control the virus and stomp in out in the US.  The sheer size of the US, alternating areas of density, early silent spread of the virus, etc made it virtually impossible. Testing and tracing on a scale effective in the US is not possible. The size of the US and its population makes many of the things other countries have done impossible. NY is a perfect current experiment of trying to control the virus and MANY people would argue Cuomo has responded the best. The measure put in the place to stop the virus has turned into the reason it continues on as it spreads in the house, and the governor is befuddled.

 

US is 28 times as big as Germany

 

https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/country-size-comparison/united-states/germany

 

US is 99 times as big as S. Korea

 

https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/country-size-comparison/united-states/south-korea

 

US is 37 times as big as N Zealand and has 100x the population.

 

https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/country-size-comparison/united-states/new-zealand

 

Having multiples of land mass and population vs some of the other more successful countries make it orders of magnitude more difficult.  If we had to rope off and test the state of Ohio (roughly the size of S. Korea), limit travel, trace etc we would probably have an outcome that was more successful then what we have had.

 

Airports in the US 2180

Airports in New Zealand  62

Airports in S. Korea 28

Airports in Germany 107

 

Airports are not everything but the CDC just told us the virus spread out of the US across the country exponentially out of NYC. Having 2152 more places the virus could land, in a land mass 100 times as large, and with a population of 270 million more people vs S. Korea is it really a surprise we had a harder time controlling the spread?

 

I think the US will be best compared to China (cant believe their numbers), Russia, India, etc in the end. Comparing other countries that are as small as some of our states with a fraction of the population may not make a lot of sense even though our response was far from perfect.

 

 

[clutch]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

[Cigarbutt]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

Viral load seems to matter a lot for severity of symptoms. It's why places like Hong Kong quarantine infected people in hotels and away from family.

We may very well find looking at the time line in NYC that staying at home and significantly increasing time in the household was the gas on the fire that put things out of control in NYC. Most peoples' guard is down at home, no mask, no washing hands, close contact. Not to mention huddling millions in a small square footage.

Staying at home and not leaving the house in retrospect maybe found to be the worst thing to have done. What do NYC, Italy, Spain, and people of color have in common? Lots of multigenerational families. Bringing thousands/millions of asymptomatic or sick people in the house likely infected those most at risk in the household. If found to be the case hopefully its not employed as a measure this fall/winter

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-home-isolation.html

The point you describe is interesting. There are spreaders and outbreaks tend to occur in clusters, especially among the vulnerables. In my area, the number of very sick and those who died (people living in chronic care homes) is relatively quite high. The solution to improve (in this specific case) is to augment the number of caregivers and improve disease spread protocols (and other aspects as well). But what do you do for multi-generational families? These arrangements are partly tradition but also economic in nature. Could most vulnerable people 'afford' to be separated?

 

Concerning your last post above, for the country that sent the man to the moon, what do you think of relative performance, when correcting for historical path-dependent differences. Of course, if you're not really trying...

 

My area is just north of New York State (foreign Canada) and there is evidence that the virus originated in China but it had various levels of stopovers before it was exported. i wonder if better collaboration would have made a difference?

[Castanza]

Anyone have any thoughts on how many deaths will be related to elective surgeries being canceled? I guess you could also look at potential factors that lead to premature death as a result of postponing surgeries or treatments but I’m not sure you could quantify that.

[Spekulatius]

Anyone have any thoughts on how many deaths will be related to elective surgeries being canceled? I guess you could also look at potential factors that lead to premature death as a result of postponing surgeries or treatments but I’m not sure you could quantify that.

 

Shouldn’t be an issue any more. For regular surgeries  etc, hospitals are open for business. I think some truly elective stuff (mild hernia etc.) may still be pushed out depending on the area. The bigger issue is that some patient fear going to hospitals or doctors now out of concern contracting COVID-19.

[beerbaron]

A startup I am investing in is looking for expert virologist for consultation on how their product may be made to be used for Covid. Please private message me if you have the qualifications and are interested. (Might be small chance, but decided to ask.)

 

What do you mean? Everybody is a virologist these days, look at this thread hundreds of engineers, asset managers and hobby investor debate models.

 

Lol

 

BeerBaron

[Cigarbutt]

Anyone have any thoughts on how many deaths will be related to elective surgeries being canceled? I guess you could also look at potential factors that lead to premature death as a result of postponing surgeries or treatments but I’m not sure you could quantify that.

This is being looked at by many (need models and statistics though :) ). {i live in a socialized medicine world and there are costs to waiting just as there are costs for excessive care}. It appears clear that delaying major cardiac surgeries has resulted in people dying while waiting. Also, anecdotally and progressively from more solid evidence, because of imposed shortages and people actively avoiding care, patients tend to come late for various conditions (heart attack, stroke) and obviously this limits the options that could reverse, at least partially, the consequences.

The answer will become clearer when excess mortality data will be collected and analyzed. There will be excess mortality from COVID-19 and from the above but it also appears that there will be much less mortality from accidents.

i read Spekulatius mentioning that hospitals are open for business but this is far from being the case in my province (especially urban centers). There are many places where a large part of the workforce is either CV+, in quarantine or simply decide to avoid work.

[clutch]

Anyone have any thoughts on how many deaths will be related to elective surgeries being canceled? I guess you could also look at potential factors that lead to premature death as a result of postponing surgeries or treatments but I’m not sure you could quantify that.

 

Shouldn’t be an issue any more. For regular surgeries  etc, hospitals are open for business. I think some truly elective stuff (mild hernia) may still be pushed out depending on the area. The bigger issue is that some patient fear going to hospitals or doctors now out of concern contracting COVID-19.

 

This is not true in Ontario, Canada -- they still haven't opened up hospitals for elective or even cancer surgeries, although our hospital beds are empty.

 

There was a report that 35 people died due to delayed cardiac surgeries:

https://globalnews.ca/news/6879082/coronavirus-delayed-surgeries-ontario-deaths/

 

At that point in time, the number of covid-19 deaths was around 950. So, I'd say 35 compared to 950 is a significant proportion. And this only counts people with cardiac conditions, not ones with cancer who may die sooner due to delayed surgeries.