Coronavirus

[beaufort]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc.  In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age.  In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life.  Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. 

 

My view is it's largely diet based.

[winjitsu]

 

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc.  In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age.  In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life.  Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. 

 

My view is it's largely diet based.

 

To add on, Asian countries (with the exception of Japan) are a lot younger than Western countries as well.

[Spekulatius]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc.  In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age.  In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life.  Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. 

 

My view is it's largely diet based.

 

All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by.

[Liberty]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

Median age of population being higher is a big factor.

[Liberty]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

 

Viral load seems to matter a lot for severity of symptoms. It's why places like Hong Kong quarantine infected people in hotels and away from family.

 

We may very well find looking at the time line in NYC that staying at home and significantly increasing time in the household was the gas on the fire that put things out of control in NYC. Most peoples' guard is down at home, no mask, no washing hands, close contact. Not to mention huddling millions in a small square footage.

 

Staying at home and not leaving the house in retrospect maybe found to be the worst thing to have done. What do NYC, Italy, Spain, and people of color have in common? Lots of multigenerational families. Bringing thousands/millions of asymptomatic or sick people in the house likely infected those most at risk in the household. If found to be the case hopefully its not employed as a measure this fall/winter

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-home-isolation.html

 

It's worse vs quarantining in a hotel.

 

But saying that things would've been better without a lockdown IMO doesn't make sense because of the other factor of much much higher R0 if everybody keeps going to public transit, offices, restaurants, events, etc.

[clutch]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc.  In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age.  In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life.  Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. 

 

My view is it's largely diet based.

 

All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by.

 

While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems.

 

I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers.

 

My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus.

 

Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter.

 

In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"?

 

[Gregmal]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc.  In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age.  In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life.  Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. 

 

My view is it's largely diet based.

 

All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by.

 

While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems.

 

I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers.

 

My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus.

 

Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter.

 

In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"?

 

 

Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily.

 

But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement.

[Casey]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

I can imagine a few factors playing a role:

 

- Can't have the virus if you don't test for it

- Similarly, if you don't figure out numbers accurately w/in healthcare system

- some populations are earlier/later in the curve, more isolated or more connected internationally

- Responses vary a lot by country. Wouldn't be surprised if some are in fact better than USA.

- First world problems like diabetes, obesity, heart disease are a risk factor?

[Buckeye]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc.  In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age.  In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life.  Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. 

 

My view is it's largely diet based.

 

All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by.

 

While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems.

 

I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers.

 

My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus.

 

Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter.

 

In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"?

 

 

Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily.

 

But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement.

 

Just so that it is clear, Disney Shanghai did sell out, but limited their capacity to only 30% of previous limits.

 

[Gregmal]

Yea it is limited capacity but I'm more concerned, as a demand indicator, with "Sell out". This to me indicates they clearly have room to increase capacity and the people will be there. I'd be concerned if you're at 30% capacity and having trouble selling that. Such as the case with some airlines.

[Guest cherzeca]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

I can imagine a few factors playing a role:

 

- Can't have the virus if you don't test for it

- Similarly, if you don't figure out numbers accurately w/in healthcare system

- some populations are earlier/later in the curve, more isolated or more connected internationally

- Responses vary a lot by country. Wouldn't be surprised if some are in fact better than USA.

- First world problems like diabetes, obesity, heart disease are a risk factor?

 

officious bureaucrats, like cuomo insisting that all nursing homes in NYS must admit people with positive covid tests.

[beaufort]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc.  In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age.  In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life.  Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. 

 

My view is it's largely diet based.

 

All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by.

 

I am in the camp that the denominator on this virus is huge, and I have accepted Dr. Ioannidis' analysis and conclusions regarding spread.  If his analysis is correct, non rich country numbers will resemble rich country numbers soon enough if poorer countries track the virus as has been pointed out here.  The difference is our population will die at a higher rate because of our health problems.  For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu.

[patience_and_focus]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc.  In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age.  In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life.  Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. 

 

My view is it's largely diet based.

 

All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by.

 

While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems.

 

I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers.

 

My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus.

 

Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter.

 

In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"?

 

 

Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily.

 

But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement.

 

Huh?

 

Maybe I am missing something but the denominator for per capita death rate is simply total population of a country (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/). So China and India will show a small number for a very long time unless this is allowed to spread unhinged. I know there is general distrust of death numbers (numerator) attributable to covid but even if/when they start reporting "correct" ballpark numbers in the numerator, the denominator is what will skew and influence interpretation.

 

This is really a very bad metric to compare countries on some kind of effectiveness or other theories on why deaths are higher because of the effect of denominator that has no direct relevance to deaths. It is simply an accident of population growth trajectory.

[Jurgis]

For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu.

 

Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it.

 

::)

[Castanza]

Anyone have any thoughts on how many deaths will be related to elective surgeries being canceled? I guess you could also look at potential factors that lead to premature death as a result of postponing surgeries or treatments but I’m not sure you could quantify that.

This is being looked at by many (need models and statistics though :) ). {i live in a socialized medicine world and there are costs to waiting just as there are costs for excessive care}. It appears clear that delaying major cardiac surgeries has resulted in people dying while waiting. Also, anecdotally and progressively from more solid evidence, because of imposed shortages and people actively avoiding care, patients tend to come late for various conditions (heart attack, stroke) and obviously this limits the options that could reverse, at least partially, the consequences.

The answer will become clearer when excess mortality data will be collected and analyzed. There will be excess mortality from COVID-19 and from the above but it also appears that there will be much less mortality from accidents.

i read Spekulatius mentioning that hospitals are open for business but this is far from being the case in my province (especially urban centers). There are many places where a large part of the workforce is either CV+, in quarantine or simply decide to avoid work.

 

Definitely. There are still a lot of hospitals and outpatient centers near us which are not allowed to perform many elective surgeries. In fact, my Mom had to have a series of back surgeries for a herniated disc. She had one surgery in early March and he second follow up one has been postponed (tbd). Now she isn't in immense pain or on any drugs at the moment, but it's still frustrating because he lingering issues still bothers her. Not to mention where my parents live there is not a single Covid-19 patient. I'm no surgeon, but I imagine the timing of a series of surgeries plays some type of role in effectiveness, outcome, and path forward. I imagine there are individuals in much worse situations.

 

The hospital my wife used to work at in Ohio has cut employee pay and laid off a lot of staff simply because they are getting crushed revenue wise for not being able to perform elective surgeries. Not sure how widespread this is, but I have read reports of this happening in other states as well.

 

Unintended consequences...truly a shame...

[clutch]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc.  In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age.  In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life.  Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. 

 

My view is it's largely diet based.

 

All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by.

 

While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems.

 

I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers.

 

My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus.

 

Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter.

 

In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"?

 

 

Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily.

 

But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement.

 

Huh?

 

Maybe I am missing something but the denominator for per capita death rate is simply total population of a country (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/). So China and India will show a small number for a very long time unless this is allowed to spread unhinged. I know there is general distrust of death numbers (numerator) attributable to covid but even if/when they start reporting "correct" ballpark numbers in the numerator, the denominator is what will skew and influence interpretation.

 

This is really a very bad metric to compare countries on some kind of effectiveness or other theories on why deaths are higher because of the effect of denominator that has no direct relevance to deaths. It is simply an accident of population growth trajectory.

 

Here it is without the denominator.

 

 

I see a similar pattern, still.

 

[beaufort]

For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu.

 

Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it.

 

::)

 

Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant.  And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it.

[Jurgis]

For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu.

 

Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it.

 

::)

 

Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant.  And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it.

 

Diabetes by country: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings

Hypertension prevalence by country: https://www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/blood_pressure_prevalence/en/

Hypertension deaths by country: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hypertension/by-country/

[beaufort]

For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu.

 

Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it.

 

::)

 

Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant.  And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it.

 

Diabetes by country: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings

Hypertension prevalence by country: https://www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/blood_pressure_prevalence/en/

Hypertension deaths by country: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hypertension/by-country/

 

Here is my source for rural Africans as I initially mentioned:  https://nutritionfacts.org/2017/04/06/high-blood-pressure-normal-but-not-natural/

 

I don't know who (population) your source includes. 

 

In another article, the same source, Dr. Michael Greger, says the same thing applies to rural Chinese.  The key point is a largely vegan whole food diet, with meat a couple of times a year, leads to the good outcomes in blood pressure and diabetes. That is not what rich countries typically have.  If Africans and Chinese adopt our diets, they will have the same results.  The results cited by Dr. Greger refer to rural Africans with traditional diet. 

 

[Liberty]

 

“ Trump: Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time and then all of the sudden today she tested positive... This is why the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great”

 

???

[Castanza]

For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu.

 

Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it.

 

::)

 

Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant.  And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it.

 

Diabetes by country: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings

Hypertension prevalence by country: https://www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/blood_pressure_prevalence/en/

Hypertension deaths by country: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hypertension/by-country/

 

Here is my source for rural Africans as I initially mentioned:  https://nutritionfacts.org/2017/04/06/high-blood-pressure-normal-but-not-natural/

 

I don't know who (population) your source includes. 

 

In another article, the same source, Dr. Michael Greger, says the same thing applies to rural Chinese.  The key point is a largely vegan whole food diet, with meat a couple of times a year, leads to the good outcomes in blood pressure and diabetes. That is not what rich countries typically have.  If Africans and Chinese adopt our diets, they will have the same results.  The results cited by Dr. Greger refer to rural Africans with traditional diet.

 

FWIW my sister lives in rural Laos and the diabetes rates are crazy high because of all the sticky rice.

[Jurgis]

For healthy populations, the virus will resemble the typical flu.

 

Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it.

 

::)

 

Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant.  And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it.

 

Diabetes by country: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings

Hypertension prevalence by country: https://www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/blood_pressure_prevalence/en/

Hypertension deaths by country: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hypertension/by-country/

 

Here is my source for rural Africans as I initially mentioned:  https://nutritionfacts.org/2017/04/06/high-blood-pressure-normal-but-not-natural/

 

I don't know who (population) your source includes. 

 

In another article, the same source, Dr. Michael Greger, says the same thing applies to rural Chinese.  The key point is a largely vegan whole food diet, with meat a couple of times a year, leads to the good outcomes in blood pressure and diabetes. That is not what rich countries typically have.  If Africans and Chinese adopt our diets, they will have the same results.  The results cited by Dr. Greger refer to rural Africans with traditional diet.

 

So you pick a random nutritionist blog and then make claims while disregarding the statistical data across countries?

 

I guess that's par for the course here.

 

Edit: That nutritionist blog cites an article in prestigious Lancet. I clicked the link. Well, yes. It is an article published in Lancet. On 5 January 1929.

Great supporting data.  :-X

 

BTW, I don't have much issues with dietary suggestions in the blog. They might be totally fine.

[Guest cherzeca]

covid and nursing homes:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/htmlview?usp=sharing&pru=AAABchoCoXE*a4lY6PnWEvBKbO83XF1Rqg

[patience_and_focus]

Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?

 

We have crappy diets, resulting in first world problems like high blood pressure, diabetes etc.  In rural China and rural Africa, people have 110/70 blood pressure well into their old age.  In the western world, with processed foods and high salt and high sugar, we have extremely high blood pressure and diabetes rates very early in life.  Our bodies don't fight off viruses as well as healthy people. 

 

My view is it's largely diet based.

 

All, the above and second and third world countries also have reporting issues, plus the epidemic has not run its. course yet. There are reports of bad situations in Ecuador (Quito) and Brazil but numbers are hard to come by.

 

While these and other points mentioned above are all valid, I highly doubt they can fully explain the huge discrepancy between the developed and the developing countries. And especially considering the big factor that should make situations worse in developing countries -- their lack of good healthcare systems.

 

I do wonder whether how some countries do not care much about this virus and this is being reflected in recognizing/reporting the COVID death numbers.

 

My wife's coworker (they work in healthcare), who has families in Bangladesh, told her yesterday that while COVID is spreading there, people are more worried about going hungry than the virus.

 

Suppose your people, media, and government do not really recognize this virus as anything novel or serious... In such countries, even if people die due to COVID or related illness, they might not warrant much attention and won't be tracked like some doomsday counter.

 

In that sense, is COVID another "first world problem"?

 

 

Yup. I think this is on the money. Media coverage and fear mongering have made this what it is. Its now widely recognized that this was here much earlier than some people thought, and guess what? Life was totally normal and folks got on with their normal business and the economy was humming along just fine. So yes, its a shame we manufactured a horror story and certainly did impair parts of the economy, probably unnecessarily.

 

But, in other news. Shanghai Disney tickets sold out. RCL is reporting normal booking volume for 2021, guess not everyone is living under a table in their basement.

 

Huh?

 

Maybe I am missing something but the denominator for per capita death rate is simply total population of a country (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/). So China and India will show a small number for a very long time unless this is allowed to spread unhinged. I know there is general distrust of death numbers (numerator) attributable to covid but even if/when they start reporting "correct" ballpark numbers in the numerator, the denominator is what will skew and influence interpretation.

 

This is really a very bad metric to compare countries on some kind of effectiveness or other theories on why deaths are higher because of the effect of denominator that has no direct relevance to deaths. It is simply an accident of population growth trajectory.

 

Here it is without the denominator.

 

 

I see a similar pattern, still.

 

Now we just need to divide this by the approx # of days since first 1000 detected infections to get account for different starting points of large scale community spread. And why 1000? Because we need a reasonably large reported number to make sure community spread is well underway. We can pick another number here but has to be consistent across the board. For example Brazil will be early April, India will be starting in mid April whereas US will be in early to mid-Feb if I remember correctly.

 

Slowly we are converging towards the correct way to look at things across countries using this metric. Even with this, it won't answer all questions. It will answer how quickly deaths rose (and plateaued) in each country post start of community spread.

 

P.S: Just to be clear, this will be a lagging indicator in economic metric paralance.

[cwericb]

As Liberty quoted...

 

Trump: Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time and then all of the sudden today she tested positive... This is why the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great

 

And if you still don’t think this guy is nuts he went on to say..

 

“Today, for some reason, she tested positive...: For some reason??

 

Well DUH!