Coronavirus

[Investor20]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1

 

Twelve studies were identified with usable data to enter into calculations. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.113% to 25.9% and adjusted seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.309% to 33%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.03% to 0.50% and corrected values ranged from 0.02% to 0.40%.

 

He seems to have left out Spain which had higher number but included 12 studies.

[Liberty]

Study of HCC in Lancet: https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620311806.pdf

[Liberty]

Andy Slavitt thread on brazil:

 

[Investor20]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/coronavirus/adding-zinc-to-malaria-drug-mix-may-help-covid-19-patients-heal

Adding zinc to a cocktail of medicines touted by President Donald Trump may help Covid-19 patients survive and recover enough to be sent home from the hospital, according to researchers in New York City.

 

A group of 411 patients given zinc along with the malaria medicine hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin for five days were 44% less likely to die and 50% more likely to be discharged home than a comparison group of 521 patients who didn’t get the supplement.

 

 

[Peregrine]

CDC just came out with their new estimate for the infection fatality ratio (IFR) - 0.27%. Are we just dealing with something as deadly as the flu but since it's novel, it's far more easily spread?

[ERICOPOLY]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/coronavirus/adding-zinc-to-malaria-drug-mix-may-help-covid-19-patients-heal

Adding zinc to a cocktail of medicines touted by President Donald Trump may help Covid-19 patients survive and recover enough to be sent home from the hospital, according to researchers in New York City.

 

A group of 411 patients given zinc along with the malaria medicine hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin for five days were 44% less likely to die and 50% more likely to be discharged home than a comparison group of 521 patients who didn’t get the supplement.

 

What would the numbers be for taking zinc by itself, or for the cocktail without adding the hydroxychloroquine? 

 

The study says patients treated with hydrochloroquine benefit from zinc, but perhaps a more important question is whether patients treated with zinc benefit from the potentially deadly hydrochloroquine?

[cubsfan]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-coronavirus-mainly-spreads-through-persontoperson-contact-and-does-not-spread-easily-on-contaminated-surfaces-153317029.html

CDC: Coronavirus mainly spreads through person-to-person contact and 'does not spread easily' on contaminated surfaces

 

“Based on the epidemiology, we know that the main way this virus is infecting people is from direct contact with other infected people,” Adalja says.

“Contaminated surfaces play some role, but it’s likely much smaller.” It also makes sense, too, he says:

“This is a respiratory virus, and respiratory viruses largely spread through breathing in infected respiratory droplets.”

 

The person to person contact can be minimized by not hugging, kissing, hand shaking, etc.

 

The respiratory droplets breathing can be reduced by masks, giving safe distance and just being outside.

 

All these can be done without shutting people in their homes.

 

In Japan, the law wont let the government mandate shelter in place.  So the government there had to request people to follow guidelines, and shut down schools.  But still they could not mandate kids not to play outside. People who could afford to shut their shops did.  People who couldnt afford to shut down ran their businesses with safeguards.  That is a much better way to treat your citizens.

 

But above two reasons given in the article for transmission, person-person contact, droplets can be controlled while working.

 

https://time.com/5830612/japan-coronavirus-golden-week/

Why Many Japanese People Are Ignoring Their Government’s Pleas to Stay Home During a Major Holiday Break

 

"Legally, the state of emergency can only involve requests for compliance. Violators face no penalties. There are few incentives to close shops."

 

You actually think us Americans were mistreated?  Was not sitting in restaurants and going to large gatherings too much to bear?  The entitlement I've seen from my American brethren is shocking.  Not willing to give up the smallest inconveniences to prevent mass death.  More deaths in 2 months than the entire Vietnam War (and closing in on WWI) but wasn't allowed to sit at an AMC and eat popcorn. 

 

My belief in my fellow Americans has been severely damaged in this order.  This is not the country that put a man on the moon anymore.

 

I am asking to follow the system that got least deaths.  Japan had 6 per million deaths, while US had 287 and UK 526 (worldometer)

 

There are two new antibody study results announced

 

Bronx had 40% Covid exposure

Stockholm had 7% exposure

 

Because you accused me of being irresponsible, can you remind which place had lockdown and which didn't?

 

Shelter in place mandates are very expensive lifewise (I am not talking money)

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un-idUSKBN21Y2X7

U.N. warns economic downturn could kill hundreds of thousands of children in 2020

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-deaths-suicides-drugs-alcohol-pandemic-75000/

Coronavirus pandemic may lead to 75,000 "deaths of despair" from suicide, drug and alcohol abuse, study says

 

I believe above suicide estimate is only for US.

 

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/a-years-worth-of-suicide-attempts-in-the-last-four-weeks-california-doctor-calls-for-end-to-lockdown/

 

The doctor in charge of a Bay Area, Calif. trauma center said the state should end its lockdown orders after an “unprecedented” spike in suicide attempts amid the coronavirus pandemic.

 

“We’ve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time,” Dr. Mike deBoisblanc, head of trauma at John Muir Medical Center, told local station ABC7. “I mean, we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.” He added that he thinks “it’s time” to end the state shutdown.

[ERICOPOLY]

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/a-years-worth-of-suicide-attempts-in-the-last-four-weeks-california-doctor-calls-for-end-to-lockdown/

 

The doctor in charge of a Bay Area, Calif. trauma center said the state should end its lockdown orders after an “unprecedented” spike in suicide attempts amid the coronavirus pandemic.

 

“We’ve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time,” Dr. Mike deBoisblanc, head of trauma at John Muir Medical Center, told local station ABC7. “I mean, we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.” He added that he thinks “it’s time” to end the state shutdown.

 

The article is based on one doctor's testimonial.  There's no data at all.  One person squashed by a UFO landing on his head would also be 'unprecedented'.  What kind of numbers are we talking about here?

 

Prior to COVID-19, there were more auto-accident fatalities than suicides in the US.  I imagine that relationship has flipped and will revert when things open up again. 

[Investor20]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/coronavirus/adding-zinc-to-malaria-drug-mix-may-help-covid-19-patients-heal

Adding zinc to a cocktail of medicines touted by President Donald Trump may help Covid-19 patients survive and recover enough to be sent home from the hospital, according to researchers in New York City.

 

A group of 411 patients given zinc along with the malaria medicine hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin for five days were 44% less likely to die and 50% more likely to be discharged home than a comparison group of 521 patients who didn’t get the supplement.

 

What would the numbers be for taking zinc by itself, or for the cocktail without adding the hydroxychloroquine? 

 

The study says patients treated with hydrochloroquine benefit from zinc, but perhaps a more important question is whether patients treated with zinc benefit from the potentially deadly hydrochloroquine?

 

Eric, the study is between Zinc, HCQ +Azithromycin vs HCQ+Azithromycin.

 

The authors believe that HCQ helps zinc absorb and Zinc has antiviral properties.

 

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25658/20200512/hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin-zinc-triple-combo-proved-effective-coronavirus-patients-study.htm

 

In the study, half of 900 COVID-19 patients were given the triple-drug combo of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin.

 

The other half were given only hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic, azithromycin.

[Peregrine]

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/a-years-worth-of-suicide-attempts-in-the-last-four-weeks-california-doctor-calls-for-end-to-lockdown/

 

The doctor in charge of a Bay Area, Calif. trauma center said the state should end its lockdown orders after an “unprecedented” spike in suicide attempts amid the coronavirus pandemic.

 

“We’ve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time,” Dr. Mike deBoisblanc, head of trauma at John Muir Medical Center, told local station ABC7. “I mean, we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.” He added that he thinks “it’s time” to end the state shutdown.

 

The article is based on one doctor's testimonial.  There's no data at all.  One person squashed by a UFO landing on his head would also be 'unprecedented'.  What kind of numbers are we talking about here?

 

Prior to COVID-19, there were more auto-accident fatalities than suicides in the US.  I imagine that relationship has flipped and will revert when things open up again.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the experience in that one hospital is fairly consistent in a lot of other places. And it's not just suicides, but there's been growing evidence of collateral damage in a lot of other areas in public health.

 

Here are a few other examples:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/05/18/nation/major-boston-hospital-finds-dramatic-drop-stroke-heart-attack-cancer-patients-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/who-routine-childhood-vaccinations-disrupted-coronavirus/?utm_content=buffer1f412&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_organic

[vikx01]

 

Hydroxychloroquine isn't the wonder drug for covid-19 after all.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

[ERICOPOLY]

The authors believe that HCQ helps zinc absorb

 

I read the article to mean that they are putting that out there as a hypothetical possiblity, but there is nothing in the article about a belief.

 

Look at the wording:

 

He also suggested that hydroxychloroquine could serve as an agent that transports the zinc into the cells. It could also increase the effectiveness of zinc, he says.

 

It isn't what they believe, at least not according to the sentence as written. 

 

Rather, it could do this... (or it could do that).

 

The article also says:

 

"Rahimian said that their next approach would be to do a prospective study to see if the research holds up in people receiving zinc. "

 

So they are going to do what I suggested -- find out whether zinc by itself is even better.

[stahleyp]

For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

 

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

 

[ERICOPOLY]

For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

 

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

 

LOL.  How about ban cars?  Why abortions?  The ultimate political hijacking thwarted (I hope).

[stahleyp]

For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

 

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

 

LOL.  How about ban cars?  Why abortions?  The ultimate political hijacking thwarted (I hope).

 

Covid 19 has killed more than cars. Abortion has killed more than covid19.

 

Keep in mind, my argument isn't just saving lives, it's also about what the government say we can (or cannot do) to our bodies.  Why is it okay to use the slogan only when it benefits your political ideology?

 

 

[ERICOPOLY]

For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

 

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

 

LOL.  How about ban cars?  Why abortions?  The ultimate political hijacking thwarted (I hope).

 

Covid 19 has killed more than cars. Abortion has killed more than covid19.

 

Start an abortion thread in politics. 

[stahleyp]

For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

 

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

 

LOL.  How about ban cars?  Why abortions?  The ultimate political hijacking thwarted (I hope).

 

Covid 19 has killed more than cars. Abortion has killed more than covid19.

 

Start an abortion thread in politics.

 

haha. fair enough. ;)

[physdude]

For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

 

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

 

LOL.  How about ban cars?  Why abortions?  The ultimate political hijacking thwarted (I hope).

 

Covid 19 has killed more than cars. Abortion has killed more than covid19.

 

Keep in mind, my argument isn't just saving lives, it's also about what the government say we can (or cannot do) to our bodies.  Why is it okay to use the slogan only when it benefits your political ideology?

 

Are you seriously comparing the cost (human, not financial though that also probably applies) of having an abortion and not wearing a mask??? Further, the mask is probably going to save the health of many people at very little cost and inconvenience to the wearer.

 

I am also curious about what you think of the modesty laws which are more stringent in the US than Europe? Why are those laws okay when it concerns your body and why haven't there been many protests encouraged by the president on that incredible violation of freedom compared to the simple requirement to wear a mask?

[Casey]

For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

 

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

 

Not really, no.

 

A law about wearing a mask is more similar to laws about wearing a seatbelt, not being drunk while operating machinery, not smoking in certain areas IMO.

 

Is a comparison to abortion helpful? I guess i think there are more practical ways to approach the question of wearing a face covering during a pandemic.

[ERICOPOLY]

For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

 

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

 

LOL.  How about ban cars?  Why abortions?  The ultimate political hijacking thwarted (I hope).

 

Covid 19 has killed more than cars. Abortion has killed more than covid19.

 

Keep in mind, my argument isn't just saving lives, it's also about what the government say we can (or cannot do) to our bodies.  Why is it okay to use the slogan only when it benefits your political ideology?

 

Are you seriously comparing the cost (human, not financial though that also probably applies) of having an abortion and not wearing a mask??? Further, the mask is probably going to save the health of many people at very little cost and inconvenience to the wearer.

 

I am also curious about what you think of the modesty laws which are more stringent in the US than Europe? Why are those laws okay when it concerns your body and why haven't there been many protests encouraged by the president on that incredible violation of freedom compared to the simple requirement to wear a mask?

 

haha.. When I visited Ventura two weeks ago, they had the clothing section of Walmart taped off because the local ordnance doesn't let you shop for any clothing in a brick-and-mortar store.  We had the discussion that if it's illegal to buy clothes we could walk around naked.

[stahleyp]

For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

 

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

 

LOL.  How about ban cars?  Why abortions?  The ultimate political hijacking thwarted (I hope).

 

Covid 19 has killed more than cars. Abortion has killed more than covid19.

 

Keep in mind, my argument isn't just saving lives, it's also about what the government say we can (or cannot do) to our bodies.  Why is it okay to use the slogan only when it benefits your political ideology?

 

Are you seriously comparing the cost (human, not financial though that also probably applies) of having an abortion and not wearing a mask??? Further, the mask is probably going to save the health of many people at very little cost and inconvenience to the wearer.

 

I am also curious about what you think of the modesty laws which are more stringent in the US than Europe? Why are those laws okay when it concerns your body and why haven't there been many protests encouraged by the president on that incredible violation of freedom compared to the simple requirement to wear a mask?

 

I would argue the human cost is far, far higher with abortion than covid19 (so far anyway). financially? I don't know.

 

I haven't thought much about modesty laws. I don't see how what to wear (or not) is violating "speech" though.

[ERICOPOLY]

And it's not just suicides, but there's been growing evidence of collateral damage in a lot of other areas in public health.

 

Here are a few other examples:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/05/18/nation/major-boston-hospital-finds-dramatic-drop-stroke-heart-attack-cancer-patients-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/who-routine-childhood-vaccinations-disrupted-coronavirus/?utm_content=buffer1f412&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_organic

 

The prior article on the suicides suggested that lifting the lockdown will reduce the suicide rate.

 

Those new articles you offer are suggesting that COVID-19 is scaring them from coming in to the hospital or clinic, which were never locked down for heart attack and stroke patients.  They will vaccinate your children.  Lifting a lockdown may scare these people even more if it led to an increase in the numbers of people infected with COVID-19.

[physdude]

For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"

 

If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.

 

LOL.  How about ban cars?  Why abortions?  The ultimate political hijacking thwarted (I hope).

 

Covid 19 has killed more than cars. Abortion has killed more than covid19.

 

Keep in mind, my argument isn't just saving lives, it's also about what the government say we can (or cannot do) to our bodies.  Why is it okay to use the slogan only when it benefits your political ideology?

 

Are you seriously comparing the cost (human, not financial though that also probably applies) of having an abortion and not wearing a mask??? Further, the mask is probably going to save the health of many people at very little cost and inconvenience to the wearer.

 

I am also curious about what you think of the modesty laws which are more stringent in the US than Europe? Why are those laws okay when it concerns your body and why haven't there been many protests encouraged by the president on that incredible violation of freedom compared to the simple requirement to wear a mask?

 

I would argue the human cost is far, far higher with abortion than covid19 (so far anyway). financially? I don't know.

 

I haven't thought much about modesty laws. I don't see how what to wear (or not) is violating "speech" though.

 

I am talking about the cost incurred of wearing a mask vs that incurred by an abortion. The former is almost costless and has a significant benefit while the latter has a very high cost. The only reason not to wear the mask given the low cost of the effort seems to be the disrespect of the health of others. It is really very similar to the wearing of a seatbelt - very low cost and increases your and other's safety tremendously (especially if everyone is involved in not wearing the mask as that reduces R0 tremendously and stops the pandemic in the tracks).

 

Also, how is required wearing of a mask violating free speech any more than the modesty laws? The banning of hijabs etc is a much more direct violation of free speech but I usually see little objection to that, especially among the right wing (though this is only an issue in Europe).

[Peregrine]

And it's not just suicides, but there's been growing evidence of collateral damage in a lot of other areas in public health.

 

Here are a few other examples:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/05/18/nation/major-boston-hospital-finds-dramatic-drop-stroke-heart-attack-cancer-patients-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/who-routine-childhood-vaccinations-disrupted-coronavirus/?utm_content=buffer1f412&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_organic

 

The prior article on the suicides suggested that lifting the lockdown will reduce the suicide rate.

 

Those new articles you offer are suggesting that COVID-19 is scaring them from coming in to the hospital or clinic, which were never locked down for heart attack and stroke patients.  They will vaccinate your children.  Lifting a lockdown may scare these people even more if it led to an increase in the numbers of people infected with COVID-19.

 

If a major part of the rationale for a lockdown was its practicality, then I think that public health officials were very impractical in not sufficiently considering the second order effects from the lockdown.

 

Yes, emergency care was never stopped but how many people would really know that? Can you expect the vast majority to distinguish between what's considered an emergency and what's not? Can you expect the majority to properly weigh health risks and think rationally when everywhere they look they're reminded of COVID? I think the answer is a clear no given the data in the articles and I think it's a leap too far to assume that the majority of the populace will make rational decisions when the public health messaging on this topic has been ambiguous at best yet extremely black and white on lockdowns.

[ERICOPOLY]

Yes, emergency care was never stopped but how many people would really know that? Can you expect the vast majority to distinguish between what's considered an emergency and what's not? Can you expect the majority to properly weigh health risks and think rationally when everywhere they look they're reminded of COVID? I think the answer is a clear no given the data in the articles and I think it's a leap too far to assume that the majority of the populace will make rational decisions when the public health messaging on this topic has been ambiguous at best yet extremely black and white on lockdowns.

 

Would it not have been more informative to tweet "Emergency Rooms still open!" than "Liberate Michigan!"?