Coronavirus

[Spekulatius]

Hey! With the CDCs latest best estimate we maybe getting close to that.

 

4x isn't close**. It is a dangerous, BS narrative.

 

CDC "best estimate" of Covid IFR-S = 0.4

CDC estimate of flu IFR-S last year (my calculations)* = 0.095

 

* 2018/2019 Estimated deaths / est. symptomatic illness = 34,000 / 35,000,000 = 0.095

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

** And the CDC estimate is low compared to other experts. For example, Dr. Fauci estimates 10x.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

 

I do not know where the CDC’s IFR rate comes from,  it I think it is possible to get the IFR rate to 0.4% (my current ballpark numbers are roughly 2x that). other countries have shown IFR rates of 0.4% and Less than that, it might be as simple as protecting the elderly better.

 

Still, if you go herd immunity - 0.4% with 200M infections are 800k death. That needs to be seem relative to the 2.5M people dying in the US naturally, but even though.

 

In addition to the just binary dead or alive after infection discussion, I have some concerns about those that survive severe episodes as far as quality of life and LT morbidity is concerned.

[orthopa]

Hey! With the CDCs latest best estimate we maybe getting close to that.

 

4x isn't close**. It is a dangerous, BS narrative.

 

CDC "best estimate" of Covid IFR-S = 0.4

CDC estimate of flu IFR-S last year (my calculations)* = 0.095

 

* 2018/2019 Estimated deaths / est. symptomatic illness = 34,000 / 35,000,000 = 0.095

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

** And the CDC estimate is low compared to other experts. For example, Dr. Fauci estimates 10x.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

 

My "getting close to that" references the fact that your comparing a virus with a widely available, cheap vaccine and 2 widely available medications to a novel one with neither. So yeah the comparison is BS. Not because its a narrative but because your naively comparing death rates between a treated disease to a non treated disease.

 

We are at 4x worse comparing the flu with a vaccine, some acquired herd immunity and meds to a virus with none.

 

Whats your best estimate for the flu with neither a vaccine, tamiflu, and xofluza?  Historically ~40% (83,600,000) of the adult US population gets the flu vaccine and in 2009 during h1n1 the vaccine was 56% effective. One of the higher effectiveness rates in recent time. Let vaccinate 40% of the US population with a corona vaccine (how about we start with the immunocompromised and nursing home pts) and get 2 meds FDA approved showing efficacy comparable to what we have the flu and see where we are. Whats your best guess there 1.5-2x worse tops?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine

 

Like I said I think we are getting close to that.

 

**edit Fauci early on also postulated that HIV could spread via respiratory droplets and other then body fluids making it far more dangerous then it was. Point being I would take all early assumptions with a novel virus with a grain of salt. That article is 2 months old.

[KCLarkin]

We are at 4x worse comparing the flu with a vaccine, some acquired herd immunity and meds to a virus with none.

 

Even blindly accepting the CDC 4x number, that is the IFR. Given the lack of a vaccine or partial herd immunity, the attack rate would be much higher too. Maybe 4x?

 

So the total mortality would be ~16 times higher?

 

Okay. I understand now. Covid = flu. We just need a vaccine and effective treatments?

[StubbleJumper]

 

We are at 4x worse comparing the flu with a vaccine, some acquired herd immunity and meds to a virus with none.

 

 

 

In some respects, you are actually being a little generous on this.  From an individual's perspective, we are hoping that covid is a "one and done" infection.  Whether that is ultimately true remains to be seen, but that's the hope anyway.  On the other hand, influenza is a recombinant virus, meaning that it gets a fresh new crack at you every couple of years.  So which is worse, a one-time risk of covid or a dozen cases of different strains of influenza over your lifetime?

 

 

SJ

[wescobrk]

When the "stimulus" package was passed I posted about why would people go back to work making minimum wage when they can stay home and collect more money at home and watch Netflix. Pelosi said she didn't have any concerns about this and it wouldn't delay people going back to work.

This economist says that the bottom 5th of workers make twice as much with this new stimulus bill than going back to work.

This will delay people going back to work.

Unemployment could be at 7-10% for the next few years without a very robust vaccine.

pretty fascinating how many permanent changes will come from this such as permanent remote workers being announced at Spotify, Facebook, Twitter and others.

Finally the medical industry will be more efficient. Why the fuck are people driving to a medical office to get a refill on their prescription or ask a question to their dr when they can just do a zoom video? This will finally make the medical industry part of the 21st century.

[Gregmal]

Its all intentional. As I said in the other thread, the left has gotten so mad and full of TDS that they are full throttle trying to destroy the economy just to get rid of Trump. Of course, most of them are in cash and bonds...preserving "their" interests while doing everything they can to destroy those of the American people, and further, making a full wave of new generations likely dependent upon the government. Its disgusting

[dwy000]

The stimulus package was approved by both the Senate and the President. Any new stimulus package will be the same. Hard to see this as a Democrat initiative when 2 out of the 3 approves are Republican.

[vinod1]

Its all intentional. As I said in the other thread, the left has gotten so mad and full of TDS that they are full throttle trying to destroy the economy just to get rid of Trump. Of course, most of them are in cash and bonds...preserving "their" interests while doing everything they can to destroy those of the American people, and further, making a full wave of new generations likely dependent upon the government. Its disgusting

 

I hope you really do not believe what you are writing. You are far too thoughtful and intelligent person for that.

 

I am sure they are nut jobs on both left and the right, but the vast majority of the people of either party just want to do what is best for economy. They are just coming from different angles and I can see the logic in both. For these vast majority if you give them an option of getting rid of the virus and economy getting back to normal on the condition that the  party they oppose would win the elections for President, Congress and Senate, they would take that option in a heartbeat.

 

I was in the camp of leaning to vote for Trump (60/40) by end of January. Because on the whole, despite so many negative things, he did get one major critical priority right: confronting China, trying to get back some of the manufacturing back to US, etc.

 

To me his actions since start of March are absolutely unacceptable. I can see both views of keeping an economy open and shutting down. And neither is a simple obvious choice. Pros and cons to both. But once you make a decision, you should proceed forward with that.

 

Look at what Trump has done. He is both for and against lockdowns. What kind of message does that send to people?

 

Fed should have been the primary entity in trying to get PPE and other medical equipment and then distributing to the states. It makes so much sense.

 

We should have had a massive program like the Apollo mission to try to produce PPE in massive quantities once he declared an emergency on March 13. Say being able to deliver a bunch of masks for every family every week. Sanitizing stations every street corner, testing at a massive scale, etc.

 

He defanged CDC and drug approvals at FDA are politicized.

 

It is not that Trump is evil, he is just plain incompetent for this situation. Almost any past President of either party would have done so much better. Just look at Amazon. Read the annual letter if you have not. That is how competent people with power would behave.

 

There are lots of things which are shades of grey and it is difficult to say right or wrong except in hindsight. This is not the case with Trump's actions during the Covid period. They are simply idiotic. People who cannot see that are being blinded by hate towards the other party. It is precisely what you are complaining about with TDS.

 

Vinod

[cubsfan]

Its all intentional. As I said in the other thread, the left has gotten so mad and full of TDS that they are full throttle trying to destroy the economy just to get rid of Trump. Of course, most of them are in cash and bonds...preserving "their" interests while doing everything they can to destroy those of the American people, and further, making a full wave of new generations likely dependent upon the government. Its disgusting

 

I hope you really do not believe what you are writing. You are far too thoughtful and intelligent person for that.

 

I am sure they are nut jobs on both left and the right, but the vast majority of the people of either party just want to do what is best for economy. They are just coming from different angles and I can see the logic in both. For these vast majority if you give them an option of getting rid of the virus and economy getting back to normal on the condition that the  party they oppose would win the elections for President, Congress and Senate, they would take that option in a heartbeat.

 

I was in the camp of leaning to vote for Trump (60/40) by end of January. Because on the whole, despite so many negative things, he did get one major critical priority right: confronting China, trying to get back some of the manufacturing back to US, etc.

 

To me his actions since start of March are absolutely unacceptable. I can see both views of keeping an economy open and shutting down. And neither is a simple obvious choice. Pros and cons to both. But once you make a decision, you should proceed forward with that.

 

Look at what Trump has done. He is both for and against lockdowns. What kind of message does that send to people?

 

Fed should have been the primary entity in trying to get PPE and other medical equipment and then distributing to the states. It makes so much sense.

 

We should have had a massive program like the Apollo mission to try to produce PPE in massive quantities once he declared an emergency on March 13. Say being able to deliver a bunch of masks for every family every week. Sanitizing stations every street corner, testing at a massive scale, etc.

 

He defanged CDC and drug approvals at FDA are politicized.

 

It is not that Trump is evil, he is just plain incompetent for this situation. Almost any past President of either party would have done so much better. Just look at Amazon. Read the annual letter if you have not. That is how competent people with power would behave.

 

There are lots of things which are shades of grey and it is difficult to say right or wrong except in hindsight. This is not the case with Trump's actions during the Covid period. They are simply idiotic. People who cannot see that are being blinded by hate towards the other party. It is precisely what you are complaining about with TDS.

 

Vinod

 

Boy, oh, boy - if you believe that bullshit - you must really hate Cuomo and DeBlasio - considering they are responsible for so many deaths with

their catastrophic decisions to jam the elderly sick into nursing homes....

 

And of course, idiot Joe Biden, Pelosi, Schumer wanted nothing to do with travel bans..... let's just let 'em in from China and Europe.

 

 

 

 

[Jurgis]

Indiegogo project for reusable N99 masks: https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/lmp-s2-reusable-protective-face-mask#/

 

Cautionary notes: This is not buying a mask - the project may fail. I have had both positive and negative experiences with kickstarter and indiegogo. Shipping to US is extra.

[ERICOPOLY]

The angry haters are back smearing and swearing.  Ha ha.  The irony of it all.  There's no self awareness.

[Gregmal]

The stimulus package was approved by both the Senate and the President. Any new stimulus package will be the same. Hard to see this as a Democrat initiative when 2 out of the 3 approves are Republican.

 

You will NEED stimulus to keep the economy afloat with everything shut down. So sure, its common sense and bipartisan. But when you have a rabid media controlling the narrative and big city governors mandating lockdowns/stay at home orders and refusing to let businesses open...thats where the game is being played.

 

Theres still people apparently out there, shocked, and mentally scarred by headlines like "worst "insert data" since the Depression". Well, no shit. Thats what happens when you more or less make it illegal for businesses to operate and people to go out. While you're at it, shut the power line to your house. Then try to turn the light on. Then go be all exasperated and devastated because, "OMG we've never not had ALL the light switches in the house not working like this!". The solution is pretty straight forward and to the degree its not being implemented one can only deduce its deliberate.

 

Its actually quite funny, these are the same folks who were whining about locking people in cages....now we're basically doing the same to law abiding citizens.

[RichardGibbons]

Its all intentional. As I said in the other thread, the left has gotten so mad and full of TDS that they are full throttle trying to destroy the economy just to get rid of Trump. Of course, most of them are in cash and bonds...preserving "their" interests while doing everything they can to destroy those of the American people, and further, making a full wave of new generations likely dependent upon the government. Its disgusting

 

I love that you didn't include a period at the end of this rant. It adds imagery of your face turning red, spittle flying everywhere. You're so furious at those damn liberals that Fox tells you are ruining the world that words and more words just need to spew out.

[cubsfan]

[

Its actually quite funny, these are the same folks who were whining about locking people in cages....now we're basically doing the same to law abiding citizens.

 

Good point. And to think, they were the ones originally locking the kids up during the Obama administration, until they got caught!

[cubsfan]

I love that you didn't include a period at the end of this rant. It adds imagery of your face turning red, spittle flying everywhere. You're so furious at those damn liberals that Fox tells you are ruining the world that words and more words just need to spew out.

 

Actually, it's more hilarious than anything. To watch this party destroy itself - they don't need our help - just watch the Primary debates

to see what a joke the party has become.

 

The MVP for Trump's re-election campaign is the LEFT!

[ERICOPOLY]

While you're at it, shut the power line to your house. Then try to turn the light on.

 

But the travel ban saved lives!  So many lives!  Huh, what airlines bailed out?  Where?

 

Now we have some extra lives to spare when we open the churches for no economic gain!

[rb]

You must admit that you love the bullshit. The last go around the libtards were the bunch who were expecting handouts from the dems, like food stamps and free healthcare off the backs of the hard working republicans. Fast forward and this time the libtards are sitting pretty with cashed up portfolios wanting to crash the economy and hurt the hard working republicans to get rid of Trump.

 

Damn those libtards are a really crafty bunch.

[Jurgis]

You must admit that you love the bullshit. The last go around the libtards were the bunch who were expecting handouts from the dems, like food stamps and free healthcare off the backs of the hard working republicans. Fast forward and this time the libtards are sitting pretty with cashed up portfolios wanting to crash the economy and hurt the hard working republicans to get rid of Trump.

 

THEY ARE BOTH!

 

Damn those libtards are a really crafty bunch.

 

Nasty little hobbitses! We hates them! We hates them all!

[ERICOPOLY]

You must admit that you love the bullshit. The last go around the libtards were the bunch who were expecting handouts from the dems, like food stamps and free healthcare off the backs of the hard working republicans. Fast forward and this time the libtards are sitting pretty with cashed up portfolios wanting to crash the economy and hurt the hard working republicans to get rid of Trump.

 

THEY ARE BOTH!

 

Damn those libtards are a really crafty bunch.

 

Nasty little hobbitses! We hates them! We hates them all!

 

hah hah hah!  rotfl.  Oh, when is the Blue Oyster opening up for cubs night, at least one of them will leave us alone.

[Peregrine]

On another note, it's interesting how Japan has had 6 COVID-related deaths per 1 mm capita (near the lowest in the world) despite not having a lockdown and having one of the oldest populations in the world and some of the densest cities in the world. I'm guessing that simply hand washing and wearing a mask in public places does 90% of the work in reducing transmissions?

[rb]

On another note, it's interesting how Japan has had 6 COVID-related deaths per 1 mm capita (near the lowest in the world) despite not having a lockdown and having one of the oldest populations in the world and some of the densest cities in the world. I'm guessing that simply hand washing and wearing a mask in public places does 90% of the work in reducing transmissions?

Yes. Now can all you have to is turn Americans into Japanese. Hygiene obsessed, mask wearing little drones, social distance, no kissy huggy stuff. Good luck.

 

This is who you get to work with.

 

Incidentally, cases are going up in US and Canada about 2 weeks after mother's day (for a virus with 14 days incubation).

[ERICOPOLY]

Mask shaming in North Dakota.

 

Tearful Republican Governor Attacks Political Fight Over COVID-19 Face Masks

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/north-dakota-doug-burgum-face-masks-covid-19-001243764.html

 

Republican governor wants you to stop politicizing wearing a damn mask

https://www.aol.com/republican-governor-wants-stop-politicizing-204022510.html

 

[Jurgis]

On another note, it's interesting how Japan has had 6 COVID-related deaths per 1 mm capita (near the lowest in the world) despite not having a lockdown and having one of the oldest populations in the world and some of the densest cities in the world. I'm guessing that simply hand washing and wearing a mask in public places does 90% of the work in reducing transmissions?

Yes. Now can all you have to is turn Americans into Japanese. Hygiene obsessed, mask wearing little drones, social distance, no kissy huggy stuff. Good luck.

 

https://youtu.be/XedDyR0opow?t=63

[Liberty]

https://www.businessinsider.com/nearly-half-of-reopen-america-twitter-accounts-are-bots-report-2020-5

[rb]

On another note, it's interesting how Japan has had 6 COVID-related deaths per 1 mm capita (near the lowest in the world) despite not having a lockdown and having one of the oldest populations in the world and some of the densest cities in the world. I'm guessing that simply hand washing and wearing a mask in public places does 90% of the work in reducing transmissions?

Yes. Now can all you have to is turn Americans into Japanese. Hygiene obsessed, mask wearing little drones, social distance, no kissy huggy stuff. Good luck.

 

https://youtu.be/XedDyR0opow?t=63

That was embarrassing to watch.