Coronavirus

[RichardGibbons]

I believe you are correct that CFR rate is going down. The reason are two fold in my opinion:

 

1) in NYC, the health care capacity was exceeded which meant that only the most serious cases got admission. Since disease progression is hard to predict with COVID some patients got admitted to the hospital too late.

2) Treatment has vastly improved since March, Doctored understand much better how to prevent severe diseases progression and how to deal with clotting, inflammation etc. This all helps bringing down CFR rate and progress is ongoing.

 

I also would include Investor20's point about nursing homes. I think it is a real thing and shouldn't be ignored simply because Investor20's focus seems to be on scoring political points rather than understanding the disease.

 

Implementing best practices in nursing homes (as opposed to the previous worst practices of bringing in Covid-19 patients) can make a real difference in deaths. A big chunk of early deaths in Canada were because of nursing home infections, but there are far fewer cases now.  And it seems clear by now that a randomly-selected infected person in a nursing home is on average going to have a much higher chance of death than a randomly-selected infected person who isn't in a nursing home.

 

(Maybe you consider that part of your #2, but I'd include it as a separate item because improved infection avoidance of vulnerable people seems different than improved treatment.)

[Spekulatius]

Regarding confederate flags and shades of grey, this classic comes to my mind:

 

God is not on our side, because he hates idiots !

[Investor20]

The COVI-19 infection numbers are pretty bad today with 3k+ infections in CA, TC, FL and 2.5k in AZ. AZ is about the same size than MA and we hit a limit with 3k hospitalizations. I think AZ is at 1.7k now, but rapidly rising. If this keeps up they will reach 3k in a week and then they do need to shut down, or risk of running out of hospital capacity.

 

Or perhaps they take it more serious now and avoid all that trouble.

 

I am not sure what you are trying to prove.

 

The deaths are going down much more sharper than new cases.  That shows CFR is going down.

 

And Arizona deaths/million is 180. NY is 1598.

 

I believe you are correct that CFR rate is going down. The reason are two fold in my opinion:

 

1) in NYC, the health care capacity was exceeded which meant that only the most serious cases got admission. Since disease progression is hard to predict with COVID some patients got admitted to the hospital too late.

2) Treatment has vastly improved since March, Doctored understand much better how to prevent severe diseases progression and how to deal with clotting, inflammation etc. This all helps bringing down CFR rate and progress is ongoing.

 

Agree 1 & 2.  But also there is 3.  Reports indicate that average age of infected is going down.  They probably stopped the stupid policies of sending infected to Old and vulnerable. More youngsters are getting infected and less old people.

 

https://www.12newsnow.com/article/news/local/texas-hits-record-high-number-for-new-covid-19-cases-tuesday-june16/502-9d4a6627-9ee1-48f4-9c8b-ccce3ec40767

Texas hits record high for new COVID-19 cases Tuesday, majority of people infected under age of 30

 

https://www.wptv.com/news/state/florida-gov-ron-desantis-to-give-coronavirus-update-at-florida-international-university

"dropped significantly from the 60s months ago to 37 just last week."

 

This is how it should always have been IMO.  Follow established guidelines for Measles, TB and other respiratory infections developed over a long period with lot of research.  On top of it because we know age has strong effect on who gets serious/die of Covid infection, protect vulnerable people such as at nursing homes and let rest go out following the guidelines established for respiratory infections.

[samwise]

 

R^2 =0.483 is pretty much rubbish in any field. Anyways, this is a multivariate problem. No single factor can explain everything.

 

Agreed about the multi-factor nature of this.

 

From a science or engineering point of view yes those are low r-squares. You don’t manufacture a product based on those.

 

But not rubbish in any field. Depends on signal to noise in that field.

Low r-squares are accepted in finance, since any predictability “should” be competed away. And low systematic predictably can be exploited in portfolios which diversify the noise.

 

See here, a r-square of 10% is deemed acceptable by the finance PhD from imperial college, for the standard and most famous model in this field , made by the guys who won a Nobel prize.

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Fama_and_French_R-squared

 

And using these low squares they run large asset management firms like DFA, and their former student runs AQR.

 

Off topic, but then I guess this thread has rarely stayed on topic.

 

[SHDL]

I just spoke with some folks in Japan. Interestingly, they told me their cities were effectively shutdown because most people were staying home and many businesses were staying shut — both voluntarily, i.e., without being forced to do so by the government. They closed their schools and started restricting international travel very early in the process too. That is in addition to almost everyone wearing masks and everything that’s already been discussed in this thread. Just FYI. I don’t think the US has any chance of being like them.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200421/p2g/00m/0na/083000c

Only 18% of Japanese have stopped going to work due to COVID-19: poll

 

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Only 18 percent of people in Japan have stopped going to work due to the novel coronavirus, the lowest level in 26 countries and territories covered in a recent survey.

 

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200413/p2a/00m/0na/011000c

Quite a number of people are seen commuting to work wearing masks on a train bound for JR Osaka Station, despite the prime minister's urges for a 70% reduction, in Osaka's Kita Ward on April 13, 2020. (Mainichi/Tatsuya Fujii)

 

IZUMISANO, Osaka -- The area around JR Osaka Station remained crowded with people on April 13, despite Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to reduce commuter numbers by at least 70% following his April 7 state of emergency declaration.

 

I saw those too which is why I thought this was interesting. They forwarded me the following which tracks what happened over time (using Google’s smartphone tracking data):

 

https://vdata.nikkei.com/newsgraphics/coronavirus-economy/

 

As you can see things like commuting, public transportation use, and recreational facility visits were down 50-60% or more at one point vs early Feb.

[Dalal.Holdings]

This don’t look like the best time to hold an indoor rally, but wut do I kno?

 

 

MAGA!

[rolling]

Californians must wear face masks in public under coronavirus order issued by Newsom

 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-18/california-mandatory-face-masks-statewide-order-coronavirus-gavin-newsom

 

 

This is 100% the right move. This will help us beat this terrible virus. The science is unanimous - if we all wear masks, we slow down the spread and can reopen safely. It’s not a political issue. Anyone making it a political issue is an absolute moron who can’t read.

 

 

The Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office is refusing to enforce California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) order requiring residents to wear face coverings in public as part of an effort to combat the Chinese coronavirus pandemic.

 

The Sheriff’s Office said it would be “inappropriate” to criminally enforce Newsom’s mandate or punish individuals and businesses for not complying.

 

Additionally, the Placer County Sheriff’s Office also said it will not uphold the order, spokeswoman Angela Musallam said.

 

“We do hope (people) will take the rule to heart, but we have no interest in arresting or penalizing people who aren’t wearing masks in any way,” said Musallam.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/19/ssacramento-sheriff-refuses-to-enforce-newsoms-mask-order/

That would be normal and common sense: you can't police everyone in all situations. Over here we had an emergency state (that basically gave the right to the government to suspend all constitutional rights for the duration of the emrgency state) and still there were very few arrests (anyone who broke quarentine would be arrested for sure, but those were only the known covid + and their identified close contacts; besides them only those that blattantly refused to obey to the police, and the police only intervened in obvious situations: everyone could go for a walk, but if hundreds went for a walk to the same place the police would start sending people home).

[John Hjorth]

Short time ago, mobility data from Google & Apple was mentioned by a fellow board board member in this topic [right now, I can't find it, I think it was in a post by Investor20].

 

Have we discussed Corona apps?

 

Two days ago [on June 18th 2020] the Danish Corona app called smitte|stop was released and made available for the Danish population. ["Smitte stop" in Danish translated to English becomes "Infection stop".]

 

It runs on a decentralized data structure based a data structures made available by Google and Apple, based on use of Bluetouth technology, combined with the use of the Danish personal digital ID [called Nem-ID], securing user anonymity while creating warnings if you have been close to an infected person retroactively calculated by an underlying algorithm serverside without permanent centralized data storage.

 

Personally, I consider this a great initiative to track and trace chains of transfer. It will certainly be worthwhile to follow how this initiative will play out and contribute over time. [it may perhaps not work out as hoped for and expected, but at least it has then been tried - to me, every initiative matters.]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I would really appreciate to "hear" [read] a bit here about how it is with such similar initiatives from fellow board members in other places & countries.[/right]

[KCLarkin]

Yeah, thanks for cracking down on the hundreds of mob/protest gatherings to spread your disease.

 

Aren't they planning a large political rally tomorrow?

 

I think protesting police brutality and corruption and racism may be a cause worth taking risks for, but getting on stage to get some narcissistic supply may not rise to that level...

Arizona and Florida are starting to look bad. But has anyone taken a look at Oklahoma? They printed 450 cases which is a 74% increase over the previous all time high. Which was... the day before.

 

Of course! We all know the biggest protests in the U.S took place in Oklahoma/AZ/FL, not in places seeing decline like NY! CHAZ is contributing to cases in OK, FL, AZ too!

 

This fits neatly into my impervious political narrative of shunting blame onto leftist ANTIFA or Cuomo or whoever else away from my precious POTUS! And now we need a massive, maskless indoor rally to celebrate!

 

That's the point.  If we aren't seeing increases where the protests took place, that calls into question the benefits of the enforced lockdowns, no?

 

The EU and rest of world would like to have a word with you. I know, lockdowns (after all the precaution was botched from January thru March) only work outside the U.S. for some reason...

 

The benefit of locking some states down over others may now fade away because some states went their own way and we have no rational federal/centralized leadership that could have led a coordinated response. It’s a hoax like the Flu anyway so it doesn’t matter.

 

Also so strange that it is surging in places like FL and AZ now when I was told this has been widespread since January. Maybe none of the millions who had it back in January made it to those states till now...

 

Actually, there appears to be no correlation between actual social isolation and covid deaths. 

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYJsd8iUcAEsSCS?format=jpg&name=medium

 

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264596818429505537

 

El Gato Malo has done some really interesting analysis that I would suggest people check out.

 

There is steep competition, but this might be the stupidest thing* posted on this thread. You've heard "correlation != causation"? Ignoring the fairly week correlation, wouldn't the simplest explanation be that countries with the most deaths are likely to lockdown the hardest? The clear outliers on this chart are the countries who were hit hard and DID NOT lockdown (US, UK, Sweden).

 

IMHO, "lockdowns" are somewhat counter-productive because they lock people inside where the virus spread most easily. But closing bars, churches, meat-packing plants, and other indoor sources of super-spread, will definitely reduce the spread. Anyone who has read the contract tracing reports out of Asia knows how and where this virus spreads. Spoiler: it is not outside!

 

* Not saying you, James, are stupid for posting it. I think you raise reasonable points. But the original analysis is stupid. Seems similar to the catastrophic "7 countries study" by Ancel Keys. El Gato Mato seems to have a clear agenda and is trying to fit the data to his narrative.

 

** Edit to Add: IMHO, the obvious explanation for the recent spikes in the Southern states is weather. These states were spared early in the outbreak because weather kept them outdoors where the virus doesn't spread easily. As things heat up, they are spending more time in doors.

[DocSnowball]

Short time ago, mobility data from Google & Apple was mentioned by a fellow board board member in this topic [right now, I can't find it, I think it was in a post by Investor20].

 

Have we discussed Corona apps?

 

Two days ago [on June 18th 2020] the Danish Corona app called smitte|stop was released and made available for the Danish population. ["Smitte stop" in Danish translated to English becomes "Infection stop".]

 

It runs on a decentralized data structure based a data structures made available by Google and Apple, based on use of Bluetouth technology, combined with the use of the Danish personal digital ID [called Nem-ID], securing user anonymity while creating warnings if you have been close to an infected person retroactively calculated by an underlying algorithm serverside without permanent centralized data storage.

 

Personally, I consider this a great initiative to track and trace chains of transfer. It will certainly be worthwhile to follow how this initiative will play out and contribute over time. [it may perhaps not work out as hoped for and expected, but at least it has then been tried - to me, every initiative matters.]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I would really appreciate to "hear" [read] a bit here about how it is with such similar initiatives from fellow board members in other places & countries.[/right]

 

I've been scratching my head as well about contact tracing apps. It's very confusing at least in the Northeast US, can't speak of other places. It seems we have given up on contact tracing for now, although the plan is to develop and roll these out so that new cases get fewer and fewer like other countries.

 

There are two main purposes and flavors of apps AFAIK:

 

1) Identify "contacts' to a confirmed or suspected case and notify them manually or using AI:

Google and Apple created the platform, however it needs individual countries or states to develop and roll out the app and the contact tracing program. No sign of it on the ground here in Connecticut. All we have is more than a month old news release from the State dept of health!!!

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/04/apple-and-google-partner-on-covid-19-contact-tracing-technology/

 

2) Apps for reopening workplaces, some of which may interface with #1 or with electronic medical record databases

Again many with hats in the ring, including a collaboration between Optum and Microsoft and a few more from newer startups

https://news.microsoft.com/2020/05/15/unitedhealth-group-and-microsoft-collaborate-to-launch-protectwell-protocol-and-app-to-support-return-to-workplace-planning-and-covid-19-symptom-screening/

 

Any one have an app they are using within the US that's working well for them?

 

[mcliu]

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-hospital-patient-asymptomatic-20200620-dlwqhswxgzcxdg4xn6sfscy7e4-story.html

 

Record daily cases in Florida but daily deaths have not gone up.. Maybe virus is getting less lethal or testing is broader and catching younger people that are less affected.

[Gregmal]

Yes, Florida(specifically, Republican stronghold Miami-Dade) will continue to see increasing cases, as will many of the other states. This really shouldn't shock anyone, although it will certainly continue to be reported on as "breaking news" and given greater coverage than it probably deserves because fear sells and certain people wake up every day hoping for "MOAR!". But, we've already seen how this works, as other parts of the country went through the same thing in March/April. Provided it isn't bungled terribly like NYC was, the hospitalizations(depending upon how they are classified) and death rates should be much lower. Certainly nothing to stop the world for. Hopefully everyone learned from that mistake.

[ERICOPOLY]

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-hospital-patient-asymptomatic-20200620-dlwqhswxgzcxdg4xn6sfscy7e4-story.html

 

Record daily cases in Florida but daily deaths have not gone up.. Maybe virus is getting less lethal or testing is broader and catching younger people that are less affected.

 

I have been watching Florida Gov Ron DeSantis explain.  He says increased contact tracing is revealing cases that would never have been found before -- asymptomatic young people running around with the virus.

[jamesmadison]

Yeah, thanks for cracking down on the hundreds of mob/protest gatherings to spread your disease.

 

Aren't they planning a large political rally tomorrow?

 

I think protesting police brutality and corruption and racism may be a cause worth taking risks for, but getting on stage to get some narcissistic supply may not rise to that level...

Arizona and Florida are starting to look bad. But has anyone taken a look at Oklahoma? They printed 450 cases which is a 74% increase over the previous all time high. Which was... the day before.

 

Of course! We all know the biggest protests in the U.S took place in Oklahoma/AZ/FL, not in places seeing decline like NY! CHAZ is contributing to cases in OK, FL, AZ too!

 

This fits neatly into my impervious political narrative of shunting blame onto leftist ANTIFA or Cuomo or whoever else away from my precious POTUS! And now we need a massive, maskless indoor rally to celebrate!

 

That's the point.  If we aren't seeing increases where the protests took place, that calls into question the benefits of the enforced lockdowns, no?

 

The EU and rest of world would like to have a word with you. I know, lockdowns (after all the precaution was botched from January thru March) only work outside the U.S. for some reason...

 

The benefit of locking some states down over others may now fade away because some states went their own way and we have no rational federal/centralized leadership that could have led a coordinated response. It’s a hoax like the Flu anyway so it doesn’t matter.

 

Also so strange that it is surging in places like FL and AZ now when I was told this has been widespread since January. Maybe none of the millions who had it back in January made it to those states till now...

 

Actually, there appears to be no correlation between actual social isolation and covid deaths. 

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYJsd8iUcAEsSCS?format=jpg&name=medium

 

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264596818429505537

 

El Gato Malo has done some really interesting analysis that I would suggest people check out.

 

There is steep competition, but this might be the stupidest thing* posted on this thread. You've heard "correlation != causation"? Ignoring the fairly week correlation, wouldn't the simplest explanation be that countries with the most deaths are likely to lockdown the hardest? The clear outliers on this chart are the countries who were hit hard and DID NOT lockdown (US, UK, Sweden).

 

IMHO, "lockdowns" are somewhat counter-productive because they lock people inside where the virus spread most easily. But closing bars, churches, meat-packing plants, and other indoor sources of super-spread, will definitely reduce the spread. Anyone who has read the contract tracing reports out of Asia knows how and where this virus spreads. Spoiler: it is not outside!

 

* Not saying you, James, are stupid for posting it. I think you raise reasonable points. But the original analysis is stupid. Seems similar to the catastrophic "7 countries study" by Ancel Keys. El Gato Mato seems to have a clear agenda and is trying to fit the data to his narrative.

 

** Edit to Add: IMHO, the obvious explanation for the recent spikes in the Southern states is weather. These states were spared early in the outbreak because weather kept them outdoors where the virus doesn't spread easily. As things heat up, they are spending more time in doors.

 

I am pretty sure that there have been quite a number of stupider things posted on this thread.  I would not discount what El Gato writes simply because you suspect he has an agenda.  I would posit that almost every single person posting here has an agenda and is trying to convince others that their views are correct - even you, I dare say.  In my opinion, he has been doing some very interesting work and as far as I can tell his analyses call into question many of the "common wisdom" assumptions made.  In fact, you seem to acknowledge in your own words that lockdowns were "somewhat counter-productive", no? 

 

The analysis, based on google mobility data (which shows actual behaviors) strongly calls into question the efficacy of social distancing.

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea9_fzOUMAER2ZT?format=jpg&name=large

 

The fact that the media has fixated on the last couple of days is an actual and obvious example of someone with an agenda.  The fact that the media (and some on this board as well) want to blame opening up (which has been slowly happening for two months) and not the massive protests (which occurred 2-3 weeks ago) for the recent uptick is another example of an agenda.  Want to know what also takes 2-3 weeks - the time from infection to hospitalization with Covid.  Funny coincidence that.

 

That all said, the recent slight uptrend in positivity rate is definitely something worth watching, but I suspect your guess about people spending time indoors has little to do with it. 

 

Instead, could this have something to do with it?

 

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1274432160682831872

 

Hmmmm.  Talk about an agenda and talk about turning the data into useless trash.  This is just on example of the data salting going on.  Anyone who is serious about wanting to really understand what's really going on should be disgusted by this.

 

Here's a handy chart to keep track of all the ways the data's being distorted

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea6Zx4cX0AMAscx?format=png&name=medium

 

 

[KCLarkin]

I am pretty sure that there have been quite a number of stupider things posted on this thread.  I would not discount what El Gato writes simply because you suspect he has an agenda.  I would posit that almost every single person posting here has an agenda and is trying to convince others that their views are correct - even you, I dare say.  In my opinion, he has been doing some very interesting work and as far as I can tell his analyses call into question many of the "common wisdom" assumptions made.  In fact, you seem to acknowledge in your own words that lockdowns were "somewhat counter-productive", no? 

 

The analysis, based on google mobility data (which shows actual behaviors) strongly calls into question the efficacy of social distancing.

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea9_fzOUMAER2ZT?format=jpg&name=large

 

Fair enough. But there is a good reason why every regression analysis comes with a "correlation is not causation" disclaimer. And this guy has violated this in a very blatant way.

 

But let me be explicit on my priors here:

Uncontrolled community spread causes lockdowns

Uncontrolled community spread decreases mobility

Uncontrolled community spread decreases economic activity

 

So he is looking at all these correlations backwards. Denmark doesn't have low infection rates despite high mobility. They have high mobility due to low infection rates.

[clutch]

 

Actually, there appears to be no correlation between actual social isolation and covid deaths. 

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYJsd8iUcAEsSCS?format=jpg&name=medium

 

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264596818429505537

 

El Gato Malo has done some really interesting analysis that I would suggest people check out.

 

There is steep competition, but this might be the stupidest thing* posted on this thread. You've heard "correlation != causation"? Ignoring the fairly week correlation, wouldn't the simplest explanation be that countries with the most deaths are likely to lockdown the hardest? The clear outliers on this chart are the countries who were hit hard and DID NOT lockdown (US, UK, Sweden).

 

 

He didn't say causation, but you are the one who is implying that there is causation (more deaths -> harder lockdowns)...?

[jamesmadison]

I am pretty sure that there have been quite a number of stupider things posted on this thread.  I would not discount what El Gato writes simply because you suspect he has an agenda.  I would posit that almost every single person posting here has an agenda and is trying to convince others that their views are correct - even you, I dare say.  In my opinion, he has been doing some very interesting work and as far as I can tell his analyses call into question many of the "common wisdom" assumptions made.  In fact, you seem to acknowledge in your own words that lockdowns were "somewhat counter-productive", no? 

 

The analysis, based on google mobility data (which shows actual behaviors) strongly calls into question the efficacy of social distancing.

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea9_fzOUMAER2ZT?format=jpg&name=large

 

Fair enough. But there is a good reason why every regression analysis comes with a "correlation is not causation" disclaimer. And this guy has violated this in a very blatant way.

 

But let me be explicit on my priors here:

Uncontrolled community spread causes lockdowns

Uncontrolled community spread decreases mobility

Uncontrolled community spread decreases economic activity

 

So he is looking at all these correlations backwards. Denmark doesn't have low infection rates despite high mobility. They have high mobility due to low infection rates.

 

With all due respect, I think you are (a) not accurately reading what he's arguing and (b) helping to prove my point. 

 

He looks at the data and finds that there is NO positive correlation between increased social distancing and decreased infection/mortality. He then notes that while correlation does not equal correlation, the reverse is quite unusual (impossible?).  The absence of correlation should call into question the existence of causation.  In fact, to the effect there is a correlation, it's the reverse.  Please explain to me how social distancing can lead to reduced infection/mortality when the reverse is observed? 

 

As to the specific example of Denmark that you give, El Gato isn't arguing what you think he is nor does he need to.  His point isn't that Denmark has low infection rates despite high mobility, it's that mobility had little to no bearing on their infection rates and that's what his various analyses appear to demonstrate.

 

For example, here's Sweden vs. Denmark.  I bet you wouldn't be able to tell which is which without labels

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea-O6oNUEAEX3g6?format=jpg&name=medium

 

Yet, here's how they did (per Worldometer):

 

Sweden's cases/million; death/million: 5550/500

Denmark's cases/million; death/million: 2139/104

 

Hmmm, seems that something else may be driving the different outcomes.  And to be clear, it's NOT incumbent on me or El Gato to explain what that something else is.

 

How about looking at it another way.  Let's compare two countries with vastly different social mobility behavior during the Covid crisis:

 

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264203820831137792 

 

How do they compare (per Worldometer)?

 

Sweden's cases/million; death/million: 5550/500

UK cases/million; death/million: 4446/627

 

Hmmm, seems like they have had pretty similar outcomes DESPITE vastly different approaches to social distancing/mobility.

 

Extra credit: So what's going on with Sweden.  To harken back to a prior post I made, it's the nursing homes (again)...

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-is-taking-a-high-toll-on-swedens-elderly-families-blame-the-government-11592479430

 

However, given the fact that the average length of stay in a nursing home is less than one year (and most people don't leave because they get better), the disparate impact is likely accelerating average deaths by a matter of months.  Is there any evidence of that?  Perhaps El Gato can shed some light?

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaZ9_nhU4AEPgf9?format=png&name=medium

 

Why yes.  Yes he can. Does anyone else have anything to add?

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eao1HHKWsAQqFfH?format=png&name=small

 

Could this be happening more broadly? 

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eao8HH0XQAAeNLv?format=jpg&name=medium

 

Hmmmm.  Fascinating.  Covid - the worst own goal in the last 100 years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KCLarkin]

With all due respect, I think you are (a) not accurately reading what he's arguing and (b) helping to prove my point. 

 

No. I'm not too interested in what he is arguing because his methodology is terrible. Even his claim that lack of correlation means lack of causation is false.

 

Hmmm, seems that something else may be driving the different outcomes.

 

Yes, exactly. There are a gazillion confounding variables he hasn't controlled for. Which means he can't possibly know what, if any, role lockdowns play in suppressing spread. But he can use some bad stats to spin a narrative.

 

Edit to add: And the fact that I agree with parts of his narrative, doesn't make the methodology any better!

[LC]

What I'm reading here seems to engage in some superficial understanding of how statistics is used to draw conclusions.

 

In principal, to draw effective conclusions you need a theoretical and statistical link between cause and effect. But the absence of one does not necessarily preclude a causal relationship, for various reasons including lack of scientific (theoretical) understanding of the underlying mechanisms and/or poor measurement/collection of data.

 

For example:

 

The absence of correlation should call into question the existence of causation.  In fact, to the effect there is a correlation, it's the reverse.  Please explain to me how social distancing can lead to reduced infection/mortality when the reverse is observed?

 

To the first point: lack of observed correlation does not necessarily rule out a causal relationship. It could indicate we have an incomplete understanding of how the virus operates, or how our bodies are responding to the virus. Or it could be that our measurement system is flawed.

 

To the second point: From what we do know, the virus is a respiratory virus which is primarily transmitted via water droplets from person to person. So it stands to reason (and prior experience concerning respiratory viruses) that limiting contact and thereby limiting exposure to water droplets from an infected person, would limit transmission and thereby infection & mortality.

 

Statistics and empiricism in general is an attempt to approximate the underlying scientific mechanisms at work in the absence of scientific understanding. In fact, when previously validated scientific laws are empirically violated, it is more prudent to first question the measurement methodology rather than the underlying science.

[KCLarkin]

He didn't say causation, but you are the one who is implying that there is causation (more deaths -> harder lockdowns)...?

 

Yes, this is why I called Gato's analysis the stupidest thing posted on this thread!

 

Let's do this analysis for February.

 

U.S. -> 1 death, no lockdown

Canada -> 0 deaths, no lockdown

Wuhan -> Thousands of deaths*, lockdown.

 

Lockdowns are definitely correlated with deaths! But, I'm confident that Wuhan locked down BECAUSE of the outbreak.

 

* numbers made up

[Investor20]

I just spoke with some folks in Japan. Interestingly, they told me their cities were effectively shutdown because most people were staying home and many businesses were staying shut — both voluntarily, i.e., without being forced to do so by the government. They closed their schools and started restricting international travel very early in the process too. That is in addition to almost everyone wearing masks and everything that’s already been discussed in this thread. Just FYI. I don’t think the US has any chance of being like them.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200421/p2g/00m/0na/083000c

Only 18% of Japanese have stopped going to work due to COVID-19: poll

 

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Only 18 percent of people in Japan have stopped going to work due to the novel coronavirus, the lowest level in 26 countries and territories covered in a recent survey.

 

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200413/p2a/00m/0na/011000c

Quite a number of people are seen commuting to work wearing masks on a train bound for JR Osaka Station, despite the prime minister's urges for a 70% reduction, in Osaka's Kita Ward on April 13, 2020. (Mainichi/Tatsuya Fujii)

 

IZUMISANO, Osaka -- The area around JR Osaka Station remained crowded with people on April 13, despite Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to reduce commuter numbers by at least 70% following his April 7 state of emergency declaration.

 

I saw those too which is why I thought this was interesting. They forwarded me the following which tracks what happened over time (using Google’s smartphone tracking data):

 

https://vdata.nikkei.com/newsgraphics/coronavirus-economy/

 

As you can see things like commuting, public transportation use, and recreational facility visits were down 50-60% or more at one point vs early Feb.

 

I dont know Japanese.

 

But checked Apple mobility reports.  Yes in mid April-Mid May Japanese have less mobility by about 30-40% in Japan, compared to New York City 65-75% or Italy 75-85%.

 

Presently Japan is above baseline in mobility with +25% in transit and +35% in driving.

New York City is below baseline in mobility with -63% transit and +25% driving.

 

I am using Mid April to Mid May since that is the time Japanese had declared emergency.

 

 

[Investor20]

He didn't say causation, but you are the one who is implying that there is causation (more deaths -> harder lockdowns)...?

 

Yes, this is why I called Gato's analysis the stupidest thing posted on this thread!

 

Let's do this analysis for February.

 

U.S. -> 1 death, no lockdown

Canada -> 0 deaths, no lockdown

Wuhan -> Thousands of deaths*, lockdown.

 

Lockdowns are definitely correlated with deaths! But, I'm confident that Wuhan locked down BECAUSE of the outbreak.

 

* numbers made up

 

Lets take this further.  Causation comes with timing.

 

When did lockdown start in New York City?  When did all the deaths come.  Before or after?

[ERICOPOLY]

He didn't say causation, but you are the one who is implying that there is causation (more deaths -> harder lockdowns)...?

 

Yes, this is why I called Gato's analysis the stupidest thing posted on this thread!

 

Let's do this analysis for February.

 

U.S. -> 1 death, no lockdown

Canada -> 0 deaths, no lockdown

Wuhan -> Thousands of deaths*, lockdown.

 

Lockdowns are definitely correlated with deaths! But, I'm confident that Wuhan locked down BECAUSE of the outbreak.

 

* numbers made up

 

Lets take this further.  Causation comes with timing.

 

When did lockdown start in New York City?  When did all the deaths come.  Before or after?

 

Well, most people die of the flu after the vaccine has been administered.  Another correlation:  most of the deaths came after Trump told us that he shut down the flights from China.  And it all happened after Valentine's Day, so I'm wondering if all those Hallmark cards were involved.

[Peregrine]

It's funny that after all this time, the conventional idea of how to mitigate this is converging on the original one: protect the old and vulnerable and everyone else be careful.

[Cigarbutt]

Short time ago, mobility data from Google & Apple was mentioned by a fellow board board member in this topic [right now, I can't find it, I think it was in a post by Investor20].

Have we discussed Corona apps?

Two days ago [on June 18th 2020] the Danish Corona app called smitte|stop was released and made available for the Danish population. ["Smitte stop" in Danish translated to English becomes "Infection stop".]

It runs on a decentralized data structure based a data structures made available by Google and Apple, based on use of Bluetouth technology, combined with the use of the Danish personal digital ID [called Nem-ID], securing user anonymity while creating warnings if you have been close to an infected person retroactively calculated by an underlying algorithm serverside without permanent centralized data storage.

Personally, I consider this a great initiative to track and trace chains of transfer. It will certainly be worthwhile to follow how this initiative will play out and contribute over time. [it may perhaps not work out as hoped for and expected, but at least it has then been tried - to me, every initiative matters.]

- - - o 0 o - - -

I would really appreciate to "hear" [read] a bit here about how it is with such similar initiatives from fellow board members in other places & countries.[/right]

In Canada, a similar (in principle) virus tracing app will be released in July. The federal government had a few contenders and they chose an app developed by Shopify and Blackberry (link with Fairfax). The other day, there was this "cyber"-technology analyst who mentioned that the app would work much better if it becomes widely spread (he even used the herd immunity concept to get his point across)..So, let's spread the word.