Coronavirus

[Gregmal]

I mean I know others see it...but even the way you, as a NYer, whose state was by far the worst out of any in the world! now gloat and play politics because it appears others may now go through surges of the virus, although again, likely NOWHERE near as bad as NY....and yet you sit here and grandstand acting as if you guys were the model or blueprint for how to beat the thing! LOL

 

As you keep citing total death count, you dont feel its important to mention how many of those your state leadership is responsible for?(right now its about 25% of all US deaths; not exactly immaterial)

[Dalal.Holdings]

Dalal you have spent the entire Covid thread attacking and belittling anybody who presents informations contrary to your narrative.

 

Yes, you act like a pos quite often, as others have pointed out. Why is it necessary?

 

You again continue to misrepresent things for your own agenda. I have never mocked dying NYers...only pointed out that the city has indeed been a cesspool and a public health disaster for a long, long time and that something like this was surely just throwing fuel on the fire. That public policy has been horrendous and the current leaders have only amplified that. That there has been mismanagement everywhere, from the top down, but you only want to talk about certain of them.

 

But as usual, in classic Dalal fashion, you respond the way you did, rather than address anything of substance.

 

Greggie I have never called anyone a piece of shit but you seem to enjoy doing it over and over. You are some class act.

 

I do not thinking calling someone a cultist is on the same level. I only mock those who cannot even mention Daddy Trump’s responsibility while going on about “savages”, protestors, BLM, Cuomo, etc. I am happy to call De Blasio a clown and say Cuomo made mistakes, but Trumpers can’t do the same at all. Sounds cultish to me.

[Dalal.Holdings]

I mean I know others see it...but even the way you, as a NYer, whose state was by far the worst out of any in the world! now gloat and play politics because it appears others may now go through surges of the virus, although again, likely NOWHERE near as bad as NY....and yet you sit here and grandstand acting as if you guys were the model or blueprint for how to beat the thing! LOL

 

As you keep citing total death count, you dont feel its important to mention how many of those your state leadership is responsible for?(right now its about 25% of all US deaths; not exactly immaterial)

 

Yes of course the responsibility all falls on the state leaders and none of it on Federal leadership...the Trump “I take no responsibility” playbook being played out by his minions. Let’s not mention NJ or CT or the new covid states kn the South...How’s the Kool Aid taste?

[Gregmal]

Of course they all deserve blame and everybody it seems has acknowledged that. But then whenever someone disagrees with you, its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

 

Back to corona, dont you find it at least moderately troubling that somebody can come from a region that has claimed no Covid for weeks, test positive, have those results brought back to the origin country, and their leaders say, "this doesnt count"? Why isn't everyone using the same test standards? Isn't it grossly misleading to compare certain stats when some are using a 25-30 and others a 40?

[RichardGibbons]

its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

 

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far.

 

But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country.

 

I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside?  I dunno. I find it quite peculiar.

 

But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved.

 

We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands.

 

I think that's a marvellous thing.

[Cigarbutt]

...

Back to corona, dont you find it at least moderately troubling that somebody can come from a region that has claimed no Covid for weeks, test positive, have those results brought back to the origin country, and their leaders say, "this doesnt count"? Why isn't everyone using the same test standards? Isn't it grossly misleading to compare certain stats when some are using a 25-30 and others a 40?

The question of the upper cutoff value is worth looking into.

Looking for disconfirming evidence (specific to COVID-19) but, so far, this does not seem to be some kind of conspiracy.

-the upper and lower Ct-values are determined on best-evidence and based on the specific assay used (different assays are used globally).

-there may be some conflict when deciding if for individual or population-based protocols, but the goal is to optimize the reliability of the test.

-an assumption for CV: most of the cases become positive during the log-linear phase, well below the max Ct-value

-an assumption for CV: the distribution of test results has a "normal" pattern and changing the upper Ct-value (ie from 40 to 38 or to 35) has relatively little effect on the reported numbers

-an assumption for CV: the upper cutoff value used in the US has not changed and then the theory does not fit with the very unusual rise in positive test rates reported recently

-adjusting the upper Ct-value (before use of test at large) has an effect on the sensitivity and specificity parameters (artefacts, contamination etc) but small changes are unlikely to greatly impact larger trends

 

Conclusion (so far): If looking for an explanation for recent trends in many states, many variables appear potentially significant but a suboptimal control (suboptimal if you adhere to a certain school of thought) of community spread is a concerning one.

To bridge with an investing theme, changing a leverage ratio (as a cutoff) from 4.0 to 3.5 will reduce your investing universe but is unlikely, by itself, to change much the outcome of investing decisions.

 

@RichardGibbons

i don't want to choke your enthusiasm and results are improving but the "breakthroughs" haven't happened yet. It's the same ingredients and people are simply coming up with the better recipes under the circumstances (large numbers of infected have 'helped', in an opportunistic way) but it's still, more or less, the same dish.

[Gregmal]

That is all true but in a larger respect I think its relevant to the economic effects. If 40 is your threshold, but 32-33 and above are not contagious and show no symptoms....wouldnt it help to know how many of these on a % basis there are? Or just simply use the 33 cutoff. If, for examples sake, 85% are not contagious and asymptomatic, there really isn't any basis for shutting anything down, ever. If that % is only 25%, then its a different story. Again, part of the problem with this. Too much data and enough to support any narrative one wants. 120k deaths and all is tragic from a human being emotional perspective, but in terms of the markets and the economy, its pretty meaningless, especially if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway, and even more so especially if half are nursing home folks. In fact, if you know anyone who's ever had to pay for a loved one to stay in a nursing home...its very expensive and really puts a strain on your discretionary spending.

[cwericb]

 

“...120k deaths and all is tragic from a human being emotional perspective, but in terms of the markets and the economy, its pretty meaningless...”

 

Okay, so I can understand that you feel that a certain number of lives must be sacrificed to keep the economy from being damaged any more than necessary. To help me further understand, just what is the exact price you put on each person that you want to sacrifice? The number of dead Americans is 128,007, so could you translate that into dollars saved per person who has died? Also do you have a number of dead that that is acceptable 200,000, 300,000? 

[Spekulatius]

This clown’s enablers do not get a pass on here. You want to criticize Cuomo, that’s cool, but your Daddy does not get a pass when it comes to pandemic management.

 

Technically speaking, he doesn’t really manage the pandemic any more, as has moved on to other things, most likely campaigning.

[Dalal.Holdings]

its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

 

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far.

 

But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country.

 

I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside?  I dunno. I find it quite peculiar.

 

But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved.

 

We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands.

 

I think that's a marvellous thing.

 

It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States.

 

Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway".

 

It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus.

 

And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration.

 

Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here.

 

Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump.

[RichardGibbons]

@RichardGibbons

i don't want to choke your enthusiasm and results are improving but the "breakthroughs" haven't happened yet. It's the same ingredients and people are simply coming up with the better recipes under the circumstances (large numbers of infected have 'helped', in an opportunistic way) but it's still, more or less, the same dish.

 

Well, it's far from a cure, but the numbers I've been seeing say a 35% reduction in deaths in patients who require a breathing machine, and 20% in patients who require supplemental oxygen. So, if you assume that almost everyone who dies from COVID-19 is in one of these two categories, and that, say, 100K people were "slated" to die from the latest explosion in cases in the USA, that might mean 25K lives saved.

 

I agree it's not a breakthrough. It's an incremental improvement, learning which existing drugs help. But I still think it's noteworthy as a significant improvement, even if it isn't a breakthrough.  (Like, if we had 4 more incremental improvements of comparable levels--and they didn't overlap on the patients they helped--COVID-19 wouldn't be a life-threatening disease in western countries.)

 

I'm delighted to have incremental improvements because I think it's very unrealistic to hope for a breakthrough "cure-like" treatment from a novel drug in a few months. When I was thinking about flattening the curve to give time for treatment options to improve, I wasn't thinking that based on the hope for a vaccine or a breakthrough drug, but rather for incremental improvements in treatments that lead to large increases in survival rates.

[Gregmal]

 

“...120k deaths and all is tragic from a human being emotional perspective, but in terms of the markets and the economy, its pretty meaningless...”

 

Okay, so I can understand that you feel that a certain number of lives must be sacrificed to keep the economy from being damaged any more than necessary. To help me further understand, just what is the exact price you put on each person that you want to sacrifice? The number of dead Americans is 128,007, so could you translate that into dollars saved per person who has died? Also do you have a number of dead that that is acceptable 200,000, 300,000?

 

What I or you think is irrelevant. How do the financial markets value an 80 year old with a 3-5 year further life expectancy? How much do they contribute to the economy? If we are talking about investing, and penalizing markets/GDP/company multiples, these figures dont exactly move the needle. However, completely shutting down everything, does. Is it surprising that we continue to see improving economic figures, even in states with rising cases? Is it possible the economy can run better than expected even with a pandemic, as long as governments do not interfere? These are the investment ramifications I think one needs to look at. Whereas my parents/grandparents or yours can die, and we'd be effected, but the guy down the street doesnt care, and neither does Mr. Market.

[Gregmal]

its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

 

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far.

 

But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country.

 

I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside?  I dunno. I find it quite peculiar.

 

But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved.

 

We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands.

 

I think that's a marvellous thing.

 

It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States.

 

Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway".

 

It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus.

 

And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration.

 

Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here.

 

Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump.

 

Well for one, if US is 1/4th then Cuomo still has some pretty big market share on the global scale as well.

 

But regardless, its pointless. Try to have a non politically charged coronavirus conversation, Dalal is AWOL. Heck we can even talk repeatedly about how many different parties, including the Trump administration, have dropped the ball. Then give it a few minutes and Dalal will be back pushing his narrative and claiming no one ever blames Trump....

[cwericb]

Okay, here is what Mr. Trump supporters need to know....

 

Many other countries have sucked it up, locked down, paid the price and have been reasonably succesful in controlling this disease.

 

On the other hand, as you admit the US has been too greedy and too selfish to do their part to help stop a worldwide pandemic. And because US can't get their shit together they are quite willing to put many, many people in other countries at risk.

 

And “the government can't tell me what to do" crowd in the U.S. needs to grow up, suck it up and get with the program or suffer the consequences as they count up their dead relatives.

 

[alwaysdrawing]

@RichardGibbons

i don't want to choke your enthusiasm and results are improving but the "breakthroughs" haven't happened yet. It's the same ingredients and people are simply coming up with the better recipes under the circumstances (large numbers of infected have 'helped', in an opportunistic way) but it's still, more or less, the same dish.

 

Well, it's far from a cure, but the numbers I've been seeing say a 35% reduction in deaths in patients who require a breathing machine, and 20% in patients who require supplemental oxygen. So, if you assume that almost everyone who dies from COVID-19 is in one of these two categories, and that, say, 100K people were "slated" to die from the latest explosion in cases in the USA, that might mean 25K lives saved.

 

I agree it's not a breakthrough. It's an incremental improvement, learning which existing drugs help. But I still think it's noteworthy as a significant improvement, even if it isn't a breakthrough.  (Like, if we had 4 more incremental improvements of comparable levels--and they didn't overlap on the patients they helped--COVID-19 wouldn't be a life-threatening disease in western countries.)

 

I'm delighted to have incremental improvements because I think it's very unrealistic to hope for a breakthrough "cure-like" treatment from a novel drug in a few months. When I was thinking about flattening the curve to give time for treatment options to improve, I wasn't thinking that based on the hope for a vaccine or a breakthrough drug, but rather for incremental improvements in treatments that lead to large increases in survival rates.

 

That type of reduction in mortality is up there with the best things in medicine. Imagine saving tens of thousands of lives, of people who can return to a mostly normal life. That’s incredible!!

 

The fact that it’s a $1 pill is even more amazing.

 

Nonetheless, we could still be looking at a lot of pain ahead. Lockdowns did buy some time, and if Dex helps reduce mortality by those large numbers, then that alone is a good reason to have locked down.

 

I wish those here would take a step back from the political discussion. I am critical of Trump especially, but plenty to criticize Cuomo and the governors for as well.  I doubt we will be convincing the most partisan among us, and I suggest we try to discuss the policies more than the specific blame assignment.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

 

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far.

 

But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country.

 

I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside?  I dunno. I find it quite peculiar.

 

But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved.

 

We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands.

 

I think that's a marvellous thing.

 

It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States.

 

Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway".

 

It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus.

 

And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration.

 

Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here.

 

Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump.

 

Well for one, if US is 1/4th then Cuomo still has some pretty big market share on the global scale as well.

 

But regardless, its pointless. Try to have a non politically charged coronavirus conversation, Dalal is AWOL. Heck we can even talk repeatedly about how many different parties, including the Trump administration, have dropped the ball. Then give it a few minutes and Dalal will be back pushing his narrative and claiming no one ever blames Trump....

 

Sorry, Greggie you continue to mislead about me, please get your memory checked. I've been posting here in covid thread since late Feb warning (when your boy called it "a hoax") and you've been dismissing the threat consistently (often wrong, never in doubt). Mocking graphs you do not understand (even basic exponential trends) and you think I'm AWOL without politics. And yet you also follow me closely on PTON and TSLA threads (lol, sup pup). Maybe you think my posts are political because you lack the ability to interpret quantitative data and so you mock the graphs I post as well as Taleb's insights and think all I do is talk politics. A shame you can't understand any of the other stuff. Stick to your REITs--real estate is much easier to understand.

 

I bounced from this thread for a while once U.S. numbers started heading down around late April-May, but I came back as of few weeks ago because the threat is back (I was back before the headlines on FL, TX, AZ). I'm the kind of guy who focuses on details when they are relevant and I move on when they are not. Nothing to do with politics--if you can't get that thru your head, I ain't here to help you out.

 

And LOL, you want to know my positions on TSLA and PTON? They should be obvious. If you can't figure them out from my posts, I question your ability to interpret things. I'm not here to help you out by laying out my exact positions anyway. In fact, I don't give a damn what you think. If anything, you are an example for me on how not to think. I enjoy learning from the mistakes of others and you are a great teacher in that regard.

 

Amusing that you seem to paint me as overly political, but have nothing to say about the like of cubsfan whose every post is political, not that you're too far off from that. After all, you spend quite a bit of time in the politics section. Projection is a common phenomenon.

[Cigarbutt]

“...120k deaths and all is tragic from a human being emotional perspective, but in terms of the markets and the economy, its pretty meaningless...”

Okay, so I can understand that you feel that a certain number of lives must be sacrificed to keep the economy from being damaged any more than necessary. To help me further understand, just what is the exact price you put on each person that you want to sacrifice? The number of dead Americans is 128,007, so could you translate that into dollars saved per person who has died? Also do you have a number of dead that that is acceptable 200,000, 300,000?

What I or you think is irrelevant. How do the financial markets value an 80 year old with a 3-5 year further life expectancy? How much do they contribute to the economy? If we are talking about investing, and penalizing markets/GDP/company multiples, these figures dont exactly move the needle. However, completely shutting down everything, does. Is it surprising that we continue to see improving economic figures, even in states with rising cases? Is it possible the economy can run better than expected even with a pandemic, as long as governments do not interfere? These are the investment ramifications I think one needs to look at. Whereas my parents/grandparents or yours can die, and we'd be effected, but the guy down the street doesnt care, and neither does Mr. Market.

That is all true but in a larger respect I think its relevant to the economic effects. If 40 is your threshold, but 32-33 and above are not contagious and show no symptoms....wouldnt it help to know how many of these on a % basis there are? Or just simply use the 33 cutoff. If, for examples sake, 85% are not contagious and asymptomatic, there really isn't any basis for shutting anything down, ever. If that % is only 25%, then its a different story. Again, part of the problem with this. Too much data and enough to support any narrative one wants. 120k deaths and all is tragic from a human being emotional perspective, but in terms of the markets and the economy, its pretty meaningless, especially if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway, and even more so especially if half are nursing home folks. In fact, if you know anyone who's ever had to pay for a loved one to stay in a nursing home...its very expensive and really puts a strain on your discretionary spending.

On the Ct-value upper threshold, intrinsic characteristics of the test and evolving data in the US show that using lower cutoff values at this point is either irrelevant or inadequate (asymptomatic CV+ may carry similar viral loads and may have similar contagiousness).

"Again, part of the problem with this. Too much data and enough to support any narrative one wants." Is that your analysis grid?

From a purely evolutionary standpoint (adaptation through physical changes or behavioral changes (inherited and non-inherited behavior)), this virus should be allowed to run its course as it preferentially kills the old, maimed and weak.

End of story for an investment thread if the end point is personal discretionary spending. But, sometimes, an evolutionary perspective requires a long term outlook.

 

---o---o---

 

Additional thoughts:

There is a story going around saying that a long time ago, the nomadic Inuit populations living in the Arctic, when crossing certain rivers and following the hunt, would leave the older part of the group behind...If true, did they have a choice for immediate community survival?

"if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway"

It's interesting that the concept of a cog is used. I hear that you're Jewish so you may know that this is the theory that Adolf Eichmann (person in charge of exterminations) brought up at his trial; he asserted he was just a cog in the machine.

"What I or you think is irrelevant"

In an investment thread maybe but not in my book.

 

---o---o---

 

@RichardGibbons

We're pretty much on the same page. I just wanted to modulate the expectations. Longer term studies have a habit of showing less than impressive results even after marvelous beginnings. It may be an incentive thing. Interestingly, it's also a typical feature of investment funds, in the early years.

[Gregmal]

its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

 

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far.

 

But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country.

 

I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside?  I dunno. I find it quite peculiar.

 

But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved.

 

We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands.

 

I think that's a marvellous thing.

 

It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States.

 

Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway".

 

It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus.

 

And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration.

 

Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here.

 

Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump.

 

Well for one, if US is 1/4th then Cuomo still has some pretty big market share on the global scale as well.

 

But regardless, its pointless. Try to have a non politically charged coronavirus conversation, Dalal is AWOL. Heck we can even talk repeatedly about how many different parties, including the Trump administration, have dropped the ball. Then give it a few minutes and Dalal will be back pushing his narrative and claiming no one ever blames Trump....

 

Sorry, Greggie you continue to mislead about me, please get your memory checked. I've been posting here in covid thread since late Feb warning (when your boy called it "a hoax") and you've been dismissing the threat consistently (often wrong, never in doubt). Mocking graphs you do not understand (even basic exponential trends) and you think I'm AWOL without politics. And yet you also follow me closely on PTON and TSLA threads (lol, sup pup). Maybe you think my posts are political because you lack the ability to interpret quantitative data and so you mock the graphs I post as well as Taleb's insights and think all I do is talk politics. A shame you can't understand any of the other stuff. Stick to REITs--real estate is much easier to understand.

 

I bounced from this thread for a while once U.S. numbers started heading down around late April-May, but I came back as of few weeks ago because the threat is back (I was back before the headlines on FL, TX, AZ). I'm the kind of guy who focuses on details when they are relevant and I move on when they are not. Nothing to do with politics--if you can't get that thru your head, I ain't here to help you out.

 

And LOL, you want to know my positions on TSLA and PTON? They should be obvious. If you can't figure them out from my posts, I question your ability to interpret things. I'm not here to help you out by laying out my exact positions anyway. In fact, I don't give a damn what you think. If anything, you are an example for me on how not to think. I enjoy learning from the mistakes of others and you are a great teacher in that regard.

 

Amusing that you seem to paint me as overly political, but have nothing to say about the like of cubsfan whose every post is political, not that you're too far off from that. After all, you spend quite a bit of time in the politics section. Projection is a common phenomenon.

 

Yup, more of the same.

 

When you dont commit to anything, its all upside, no downside. Never wrong, always right. When you peddle flavor of the month Robinhood stocks but refuse to even answer a simple "do you own it" question, its by design. if it goes down; I dont own it, I sold it....if it goes up, you keep posturing. Highly predictable. Same with the virus stuff. Your graphs are not proprietary...sorry to break it to you. If you panicked in February/March you made a massive mistake(but again never having committed to an investment stance allows one wiggle room). And even for those things that have been impacted, assuming the balance sheet isn't upside down, you've got a hell of an opportunity in certain places, IE NYC-centric businesses.

 

Art of the Deal level stuff right here, courtesy of Dalal.

[Gregmal]

 

Additional thoughts:

There is a story going around saying that a long time ago, the nomadic Inuit populations living in the Arctic, when crossing certain rivers and following the hunt, would leave the older part of the group behind...If true, did they have a choice for immediate community survival?

"if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway"

It's interesting that the concept of a cog is used. I hear that you're Jewish so you may know that this is the theory that Adolf Eichmann (person in charge of exterminations) brought up at his trial; he asserted he was just a cog in the machine.

"What I or you think is irrelevant"

In an investment thread maybe but not in my book.

 

---o---o---

 

@RichardGibbons

We're pretty much on the same page. I just wanted to modulate the expectations. Longer term studies have a habit of showing less than impressive results even after marvelous beginnings. It may be an incentive thing.

 

I think when investing, one needs to remove emotion as much as possible. You have to think/be a socio-path. Its not "feel good" or anything to boast about, but its how things work. People essentially are cogs or data points. There is a great line from Big Short where Ben Rickard says, "you know what I hate about banking, it reduces people to numbers"....Part of the reason I moved out of the financial world as much as possible after getting setup, and have the goal to be removed from it completely within the next few years. Its not for everybody, but its how the game is played. Ask any PM honestly if they'd trade 1M senior citizens for an S&P rebound in 2021 and they all likely vote yes. I think if you are in the markets you have to be aware of these things and anticipate those directions. Its the stance that much of the US is taking through policy action.

[Dalal.Holdings]

its just some blanket "Trump minion, you never blame him" rhetoric.

 

Well, to be fair, it's because certain people on the thread literally never blame Trump. They literally don't acknowledge it when he's the person most responsible for America's mess. Like, he's the dude where the buck is supposed to stop. If you're looking for politicians who have the most leverage to fight the disease, this is the guy who has it, by far.

 

But some people seem to be trying to desperately deflect responsibility from him for some bizarre reason, pretending that he and the outbreak are in two completely different universes, never actually interacting with each other at all. And they also seem to believe that the Governor of the 20th smallest state is actually the most important leader in the entire country.

 

I guess maybe people skipped their civics class to go smoke outside?  I dunno. I find it quite peculiar.

 

But to get back on topic, while we wait on the deaths arising from the current surge of infections, it's worth noting that we ought to get fewer deaths per capita infected not simply because of the age of infected people, but because treatment has improved in a very real, significant way. This was one of the key goals of flattening the curve and doing the lockdowns, and it's starting to be achieved.

 

We've delayed infections long enough that some people who would have died if they had been infected three months ago will now live if they get infected today. I speculate that the number of saved lives in the USA alone will be in the tens of thousands.

 

I think that's a marvellous thing.

 

It's ok--his enablers think it's worth it to protect/enable him despite the lasting damage which is being done to the United States.

 

Like I said, more triggered by an NFL player kneeling or CHAZ but when 120k are dead it's, "well you have to think about the economic trade offs" or "it's only the elderly anyway".

 

It would be one thing if Trump started taking this pandemic seriously in March (which would have been late as it was). Instead, he held two indoor rallies in places with surging cases last week and said "the pandemic is ending". It is no longer negligence/incompetence that you can merely accuse him of, but instead of actively seeding the virus.

 

And yeah--big question mark as to why those individuals who claim not to be biased yet hark on about people protesting/Cuomo can't even muster some critique of the administration.

 

Anyway, this is the coronavirus thread--and DJT will certainly not get a free pass here.

 

Greggie said Cuomo deserves blame because 25% of American deaths have happened in NY State. Well wanna hear another statistic? 25% of global deaths are in one country: the United States--who you gonna hold accountable for that? I know to some people the answer will never be Trump.

 

Well for one, if US is 1/4th then Cuomo still has some pretty big market share on the global scale as well.

 

But regardless, its pointless. Try to have a non politically charged coronavirus conversation, Dalal is AWOL. Heck we can even talk repeatedly about how many different parties, including the Trump administration, have dropped the ball. Then give it a few minutes and Dalal will be back pushing his narrative and claiming no one ever blames Trump....

 

Sorry, Greggie you continue to mislead about me, please get your memory checked. I've been posting here in covid thread since late Feb warning (when your boy called it "a hoax") and you've been dismissing the threat consistently (often wrong, never in doubt). Mocking graphs you do not understand (even basic exponential trends) and you think I'm AWOL without politics. And yet you also follow me closely on PTON and TSLA threads (lol, sup pup). Maybe you think my posts are political because you lack the ability to interpret quantitative data and so you mock the graphs I post as well as Taleb's insights and think all I do is talk politics. A shame you can't understand any of the other stuff. Stick to REITs--real estate is much easier to understand.

 

I bounced from this thread for a while once U.S. numbers started heading down around late April-May, but I came back as of few weeks ago because the threat is back (I was back before the headlines on FL, TX, AZ). I'm the kind of guy who focuses on details when they are relevant and I move on when they are not. Nothing to do with politics--if you can't get that thru your head, I ain't here to help you out.

 

And LOL, you want to know my positions on TSLA and PTON? They should be obvious. If you can't figure them out from my posts, I question your ability to interpret things. I'm not here to help you out by laying out my exact positions anyway. In fact, I don't give a damn what you think. If anything, you are an example for me on how not to think. I enjoy learning from the mistakes of others and you are a great teacher in that regard.

 

Amusing that you seem to paint me as overly political, but have nothing to say about the like of cubsfan whose every post is political, not that you're too far off from that. After all, you spend quite a bit of time in the politics section. Projection is a common phenomenon.

 

Yup, more of the same.

 

When you dont commit to anything, its all upside, no downside. Never wrong, always right. When you peddle flavor of the month Robinhood stocks but refuse to even answer a simple "do you own it" question, its by design. if it goes down; I dont own it, I sold it....if it goes up, you keep posturing. Highly predictable. Same with the virus stuff. Your graphs are not proprietary...sorry to break it to you. If you panicked in February/March you made a massive mistake(but again never having committed to an investment stance allows one wiggle room). And even for those things that have been impacted, assuming the balance sheet isn't upside down, you've got a hell of an opportunity in certain places, IE NYC-centric businesses.

 

Art of the Deal level stuff right here, courtesy of Dalal.

 

Well considering PTON and TSLA are near all time highs and I've clearly said I'm out of one of those, your thesis is broken (i.e. neither has really "gone down" for significant time period since I've owned them). It's not that hard to figure out. And I've willfully admitted to prior mistakes (owning GM for example). Again, you mislead about me. But not surprising considering someone with this many memory lapses...

 

Lol, "proprietary charts"--did I even claim to own those Johns Hopkins graphs? Do you understand how interpretation of publicly available data works? It's kind of a core tenet of investing. I've also never claimed to own the data on the SEC's website...You still don't get it. Good luck pal.

 

If you panicked in February/March you made a massive mistake(but again never having committed to an investment stance allows one wiggle room).

 

Again, making things up about me. But yeah, I bet you think WEB "panicked" too. Clearly anyone who took covid seriously back then was looney (that's why DJT is a genius derp because he knew it was a "hoax") and covid has not and will not have real, long term effects on the economy or equities for the medium term. Clearly covid's impact on the market is settled now with the latest rally per Gregmal and anyone who sold made a mistake. Apparently we now believe in efficient markets...Mr. Market is omniscient after all...

[Spekulatius]

 

Additional thoughts:

There is a story going around saying that a long time ago, the nomadic Inuit populations living in the Arctic, when crossing certain rivers and following the hunt, would leave the older part of the group behind...If true, did they have a choice for immediate community survival?

"if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway"

It's interesting that the concept of a cog is used. I hear that you're Jewish so you may know that this is the theory that Adolf Eichmann (person in charge of exterminations) brought up at his trial; he asserted he was just a cog in the machine.

"What I or you think is irrelevant"

In an investment thread maybe but not in my book.

 

---o---o---

 

@RichardGibbons

We're pretty much on the same page. I just wanted to modulate the expectations. Longer term studies have a habit of showing less than impressive results even after marvelous beginnings. It may be an incentive thing.

 

I think when investing, one needs to remove emotion as much as possible. You have to think/be a socio-path. Its not "feel good" or anything to boast about, but its how things work. People essentially are cogs or data points. There is a great line from Big Short where Ben Rickard says, "you know what I hate about banking, it reduces people to numbers"....Part of the reason I moved out of the financial world as much as possible after getting setup, and have the goal to be removed from it completely within the next few years. Its not for everybody, but its how the game is played. Ask any PM honestly if they'd trade 1M senior citizens for an S&P rebound in 2021 and they all likely vote yes. I think if you are in the markets you have to be aware of these things and anticipate those directions. Its the stance that much of the US is taking through policy action.

 

The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data

If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter.

 

Florida and  Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel.

 

Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant.

 

The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Additional thoughts:

There is a story going around saying that a long time ago, the nomadic Inuit populations living in the Arctic, when crossing certain rivers and following the hunt, would leave the older part of the group behind...If true, did they have a choice for immediate community survival?

"if most are not major cogs in the economy anyway"

It's interesting that the concept of a cog is used. I hear that you're Jewish so you may know that this is the theory that Adolf Eichmann (person in charge of exterminations) brought up at his trial; he asserted he was just a cog in the machine.

"What I or you think is irrelevant"

In an investment thread maybe but not in my book.

 

---o---o---

 

@RichardGibbons

We're pretty much on the same page. I just wanted to modulate the expectations. Longer term studies have a habit of showing less than impressive results even after marvelous beginnings. It may be an incentive thing.

 

I think when investing, one needs to remove emotion as much as possible. You have to think/be a socio-path. Its not "feel good" or anything to boast about, but its how things work. People essentially are cogs or data points. There is a great line from Big Short where Ben Rickard says, "you know what I hate about banking, it reduces people to numbers"....Part of the reason I moved out of the financial world as much as possible after getting setup, and have the goal to be removed from it completely within the next few years. Its not for everybody, but its how the game is played. Ask any PM honestly if they'd trade 1M senior citizens for an S&P rebound in 2021 and they all likely vote yes. I think if you are in the markets you have to be aware of these things and anticipate those directions. Its the stance that much of the US is taking through policy action.

 

The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data

If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter.

 

Florida and  Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel.

 

Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant.

 

The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.

 

Exactly—you can’t just look at deaths and ignore the second/third order effects. Certainly not in a consumption oriented economy like the U.S....airlines, restaurants, retail, hotels—many of these are low margin businesses and even a 10-15% revenue hit can be devastating. To think that “isolating seniors” will somehow spare the economy pain is nuts.

 

The best thing that could have been done for the economy was to act early—January/February—we did not. Then the next thing was to ensure it did not rise again in the U.S. once you stop the initial surge...as you are seeing we also did not achieve this. So now we have EU countries mostly moving past this because they did what was needed and U.S. stuck in viral quagmire with even R governors scaling back reopening now and closing bars...

 

As was said way back—an ounce of prevention would have been worth pounds and pounds of cure, but our federal leadership is at best uninterested in being proactive and and worst exacerbating things by denying and holding indoor rallies in AZ, TX, OK...if you think it’s political, then oh well

[Cigarbutt]

I think when investing, one needs to remove emotion as much as possible. You have to think/be a socio-path. Its not "feel good" or anything to boast about, but its how things work. People essentially are cogs or data points. There is a great line from Big Short where Ben Rickard says, "you know what I hate about banking, it reduces people to numbers"....Part of the reason I moved out of the financial world as much as possible after getting setup, and have the goal to be removed from it completely within the next few years. Its not for everybody, but its how the game is played. Ask any PM honestly if they'd trade 1M senior citizens for an S&P rebound in 2021 and they all likely vote yes. I think if you are in the markets you have to be aware of these things and anticipate those directions. Its the stance that much of the US is taking through policy action.

The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data

If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter.

Florida and  Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel.

Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant.

The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.

Exactly—you can’t just look at deaths and ignore the second/third order effects. Certainly not in a consumption oriented economy like the U.S....airlines, restaurants, retail, hotels—many of these are low margin businesses and even a 10-15% revenue hit can be devastating. To think that “isolating seniors” will somehow spare the economy pain is nuts.

The best thing that could have been done for the economy was to act early—January/February—we did not. Then the next thing was to ensure it did not rise again in the U.S. once you stop the initial surge...as you are seeing we also did not achieve this. So now we have EU countries mostly moving past this because they did what was needed and U.S. stuck in viral quagmire with even R governors scaling back reopening now and closing bars...

As was said way back—an ounce of prevention would have been worth pounds and pounds of cure, but our federal leadership is at best uninterested in being proactive and and worst exacerbating things by denying and holding indoor rallies in AZ, TX, OK...if you think it’s political, then oh well

---) policy-political part

Letting the pandemic run its course will create noise but an improved demographic profile would result in more potential growth in standards of living for the remaining population (evolutionary perspective). WWII did wonders for economic growth for the victors, even if your country's infrastructures were devastated by war. It's the transition that matters. Countries like Brazil (and a few others) have limited real capacity to limit the spread, Sweden tried to formulate a "sustainable" approach which limitations have become obvious over time, the area where i live had significant spread because mostly of competence and governance issues and it looks like the US has collectively (?) chosen a unique way to muddle through, with excess mortality. In the Houston area, it's been reported that 15% of CV-dedicated ICU beds are occupied by people in their 20s and 30s. This is not enough to show in the aggregate statistics but the excess mortality is real.

I get it that greed is good and is part of the equation. It's just that increasing levels of greed has met marginal declines in overall utility in the US and the CV episode triggered another inequity notch up, taking the entire population closer to non-linear changes. Even if one adopts the evolutionary perspective, an argument can be made that the drift may have reached a point where imbalances will correct somehow with potential negative impacts on most portfolios. Debt-fueled temporary UBIs are unlikely to do the trick IMO.

An argument could be made that the US delayed its entry into WWI and WWII in order to minimize the impact (casualties) on its population and to maximize the domestic economic benefits at large. This time around, aiming to maximize the economic benefits will tend to concentrate in the few and the burden will fall on a group large enough not to stay silent.

 

---)fundamental part

A key aspect of this pandemic is the significance of asymptomatic carriers (CV+). It appears that this aspect has been underestimated, to some degree, and many asymptomatic carriers carry high viral loads, can spread the virus and show significant lung disease (as shown on test images). It's a real challenge.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6.pdf

@Gregmal, Figure 2 adds other evidence that the Ct-level does not show a significant difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers.

One of the challenging messages is that asymptomatic carriers also develop antibodies that don't stick around, meaning that the key to resist this disease is to have the inherent ability to mount an immune response, an ability that is distributed very unevenly in the general population.

[stahleyp]

Alright, alright, let's settle this.

 

Greg and Dalal, please post your personal performance for the YTD, 5 and 10 years.

[Spekulatius]

Anectode:

My wife told me that a Thai friend (with a Thai passport) has to quarantine for 2 weeks upon arrival in Thailand from the US. Apparently the US wasn’t on the quarantine list when he booked his travel.

 

Good news is that the Thai government pays for his quarantine stay in a hotel and the food, because he is a Thai citizen ( he has an US passport as well).

 

He did have a confirmation of a negative test COVID-19 Test result ( done 2 days before he left) but it didn’t matter.