Coronavirus

[rb]

 

The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data

If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter.

 

Florida and  Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel.

 

Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant.

 

The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.

This is really gonna bite economically in FL and AZ.

 

There's a ton of Canadians that just pack it in in the winter and just go down to FL. My guess is that it's not gonna happen this year. They don't care about Trump/DeSantis political posturing, they would prefer to stay alive, and I don't think any insurance company is gonna sell them a COVID policy. These Canadian also tend to be of the wealthier variety that have a lot of money to spend.

 

The same thing goes triple for AZ. Canadians own so much of that place it may as well be the 11th province.

[Gregmal]

 

The problem with that is that people can collectively panic and react in unpredictable ways. This epidemic has the potential to kill perhaps 0.5% of the population or ~1.7M people based on current data

If you just remove 1.7M people from the economy with a large skew toward older people, then you could conclude it’s not a big deal. However if you think it through and consider that those 1.7M people collectively have a lot of money and perhaps don’t want to die and there are ~30M people with a lot of money in the same risk group, Who will behave very differently then it starts to matter.

 

Florida and  Arizona might be good examples of this. Are older people still going to move there (these states are big destinations for retirees) while they let the Virus circulate freely? If they are already there, will those people spent money in restaurants etc? Unlike the millennials, those folks tend to have a lot of money, so it does matter what they think and how they feel.

 

Florida has a big tourism industry on top of the retirees l so how this will be going? Even if you aren’t scared for your life, it’s not a great prospect to contract a disease that is far worse than having a flu for 2-3 weeks? Worth going to Disneyland for? Then there are European and Asian travelers which at this point are going to be a zero, as they will require quarantine upon coming back most likely. Most folks from these countries won’t bother visiting the US anyways for a while. So, I think the economic impact of this delayed wave in these states will be significant.

 

The good news and the reason why Mr. Market hasn’t panicked yet, is they death rates are still low. I think they will go up somewhat but hopefully we will never seen the levels seen in the NE from March/April again anywhere.

This is really gonna bite economically in FL and AZ.

 

There's a ton of Canadians that just pack it in in the winter and just go down to FL. My guess is that it's not gonna happen this year. They don't care about Trump/DeSantis political posturing, they would prefer to stay alive, and I don't think any insurance company is gonna sell them a COVID policy. These Canadian also tend to be of the wealthier variety that have a lot of money to spend.

 

The same thing goes triple for AZ. Canadians own so much of that place it may as well be the 11th province.

 

While this is all true, it is also almost certainly temporary. The virus will likely be irrelevant in 2 years. Which the history books will remember, in the economic sense, as a textbook recession.

[Liberty]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/fauci-says-us-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-be-very-disturbing-could-top-100000-cases-a-day.html

 

The U.S. is “not in total control” of the coronavirus pandemic and daily new cases could surpass 100,000 new infections per day if the outbreak continues on its current trend, White House health adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.

 

“I can’t make an accurate prediction but it’s going to be very disturbing,” Fauci told senators in a hearing held by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

[rb]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/fauci-says-us-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-be-very-disturbing-could-top-100000-cases-a-day.html

 

The U.S. is “not in total control” of the coronavirus pandemic and daily new cases could surpass 100,000 new infections per day if the outbreak continues on its current trend, White House health adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.

 

“I can’t make an accurate prediction but it’s going to be very disturbing,” Fauci told senators in a hearing held by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

Wow! It is so shocking to see someone with integrity these days. Can you imagine the pressure this guy is under to keep his mouth shut? He DOES NOT GIVE A FUCK!

[Dalal.Holdings]

Another useless graph (not included--the southern states of FL & AL which do not disclose covid hospitalizations):

 

 

And here's AZ, one of the earliest movers of this wave (and where our President held an indoor rally one week ago and declared that the U.S. was at "the end of the pandemic."):

 

 

Disclaimer: not proprietary, but publicly available at:

[Liberty]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/fauci-says-us-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-be-very-disturbing-could-top-100000-cases-a-day.html

 

The U.S. is “not in total control” of the coronavirus pandemic and daily new cases could surpass 100,000 new infections per day if the outbreak continues on its current trend, White House health adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.

 

“I can’t make an accurate prediction but it’s going to be very disturbing,” Fauci told senators in a hearing held by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

Wow! It is so shocking to see someone with integrity these days. Can you imagine the pressure this guy is under to keep his mouth shut? He DOES NOT GIVE A FUCK!

 

People like Fauci are stuck in such a dilemma (almost everybody competent in this administration was in the same position... Tillerson, Mattis, Kelly.. )... They all think "well, I can do more good on the inside than if I'm fired", so they kind of try to walk on eggs and navigate some balance between pleasing Trump and actually doing their jobs.

 

Which isn't what you want in a crisis where people are losing their lives. You want to let your top guy actually do his job and enable him to be effective, rather than sideline him and contradict him all the time, not allow him to use all the tools, and use him as a prop in some reality show where you have to have all the spotlight on yourself and tell him what he can and can't say and whether he can do interviews or testify to congress...

 

Count the days until Trump blames all this on Fauci... *sigh*

 

Meanwhile, common sense looks like this:

 

One of the first calls Biden would make after being elected would be to Dr. Fauci asking him to stay on. He'd be given Oval Office access and "an uncensored platform to speak directly to the American people -- whether delivering good news or bad."

[Dalal.Holdings]

Fauci’s name dragging through the mud will continue. Like Mattis, Sessions, Bolton, Tillerson, and too many others to name.

 

What do you expect with an administration run with mob mentality? A physician who has been a public servant for almost 40 years, but who cares about any of that if you dare not sing the song of senor bone spurs (who declared the pandemic nearly over one week ago)?

 

 

Ingraham: Now at this point, can we all just admit that Fauci is basically working for the Biden campaign

 

The viewers of the Laura Ingraham show must be critical thinking savants.

 

Yeah, you want us to leave politics out of this, but how is that possible when this administration and its supporters politicize Fauci and his updates on the pandemic which are scientific/objective?

 

[Gregmal]

I don't think Fauci is politicized by people as much as he is by the various media outlets. He is constantly misquoted and misrepresented. If you watched(or listened) to his testimony the other day, you would see that. There was a specific encounter with Rand Paul particularly, which made many headlines. But the actual exchange was quite different; with Fauci explaining that basically "hey, everybody is asking me all these questions and we just dont know everything. We do our best with what we have available to make decisions, but I often get quoted out of context, and often its because people ask me "what do you think about such and such". The answer is always to proceed with caution. But I didn't say "no baseball" or "no school". But that is what they put in the headline"

 

This is paraphrased, but I do agree he seems like a genuinely reasonable guy.

[Liberty]

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1278404320279490560?s=20

 

Arizona not only has more cases in one day than all of EU combined, it also has 42x higher mortality than the EU—and it is likely diverging even further.

 

Another thought on Arizona's numbers: AZ, with 7 million people, is reporting as many new cases per day as the European Union, with 446 million.

 

[Spekulatius]

Here is my prediction for Texas, Arizona and Florida next week:

Toilet paper will be sold out / hard to get. Same with guns most likely.

 

[Gregmal]

Gavin Newsome seems more vegetable, than vegetable eater. Cesspool West Coast has basically been in semi lockdown the entire time and still cant seem to figure out what it needs to do. Of course, it's LA leading the way with the virus, but now it seems all of the state will start suffering.

[Casey]

Here is my prediction for Texas, Arizona and Florida next week:

Toilet paper will be sold out / hard to get. Same with guns most likely.

 

Do we know why there was such a lag between coastal city outbreaks -> Red states? I'm surprised it took this long to arrive.

[Spekulatius]

Gavin Newsome seems more vegetable, than vegetable eater. Cesspool West Coast has basically been in semi lockdown the entire time and still cant seem to figure out what it needs to do. Of course, it's LA leading the way with the virus, but now it seems all of the state will start suffering.

 

Most of the cases occurred in a few counties in LA and Orange County. The outbreak occurred after the lockdown was eased and bars were allowed to open. From a few anecdotal reports that I have seen causes are:

1) family festivities (Father’s Day, Memorial Day), Those May explain the timing of the delayed wave.

2) bars

 

Due to socioeconomic reasons, emigrants are more susceptible apparently and that is what we have seen in the LA area as well. LA always had more virus circulating than other areas but it seems like above factors caused the runway train wreck.

 

Again, the virus isn’t political, it doesn’t care about red or blue. If it starts to circulate freely and you don’t hammer it early and hard, the exponential growth will have its way and the results are what we are seeing.

[Liberty]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/goldman-sachs-says-a-national-mask-mandate-could-slash-infections-and-save-economy-from-a-5percent-hit.html

 

Goldman said a national mask mandate could raise the percentage of people who wear masks by 15 percentage points and cut the daily growth rate of cases by 1.0 percentage point to 0.6%.

Hatzius then translated those results into GDP impact and found that a mask mandate could substitute for lockdowns that would subtract nearly 5% from growth.

[John Hjorth]

Today, I've read some pieces "out there" today about Mr. Trump basically has been sweeping the market for available Remdevisir for months going forward, based on production capacity.

 

Example : Here.

 

For Danes, no sweat. We've already got it, in some volume - for free! - from Gilead. Number of persons in ICUs as of the latest reporting : 10.

[Spekulatius]

Today, I've read some pieces "out there" today about Mr. Trump basically has been sweeping the market for available Remdevisir for months going forward, based on production capacity.

 

Example : Here.

 

For Danes, no sweat. We've already got it, in some volume - for free! - from Gilead. Number of persons in ICUs as of the latest reporting : 10.

 

It sounds like Gileadhas granted a royalty free license to some generic manufacturers so I don’t think it will be that big of a problem:

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/gilead-remdesivir-licensing-deals/

 

[Cigarbutt]

Here is my prediction for Texas, Arizona and Florida next week:

Toilet paper will be sold out / hard to get. Same with guns most likely.

Do we know why there was such a lag between coastal city outbreaks -> Red states? I'm surprised it took this long to arrive.

There are seasonal and climate factors but the main part is behavioral (collective) IMO.

Let's invert: How would you devise unique circumstances that would reproduce what has happened and the "delay"?

First, allow the virus to spread in a major city (area) that is the major landing spot for international travelers (ie don't contain well), then overshoot to major distancing and restrictions on mobility and then eventually reopen (don't mitigate well) before criteria for opening are met.

From genomic preliminary results (virus signature), most viral outbreaks now in the US had their origin in New York (this appears to be true also for California!).

The virus is patient and opportunistic and will tend to reach its destination, if given the chance.

[Liberty]

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-korea

[Investor20]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.28.20142190v1

By the week ending April 19, the seroprevalence in the screening group reached 19.3%

 

https://www.6sqft.com/new-york-covid-antibody-test-preliminary-results/

Today, Governor Cuomo released the results of the state’s second-phase COVID antibody test, which randomly surveyed 12,000 people between May 1 and June 13. When the survey commenced, 12.3% of New York residents tested positive, compared with 13.4% on Saturday. The new results are more telling, however, when it comes to disparities in New York City. Though overall there was only a 1.6% increase (19.9% to 21.6%)

 

But there were lots of cases from NYC from mid April to June.  The antibodies are same.

 

Is the below correct then?

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-antibodies-fade-months-study/story?id=71406787

COVID-19 antibodies may fade in as little as 2 months, study says

 

Inspite of the cases between Mid April to Mid June, the antibody numbers did not change in NYC because they are fading?

[patience_and_focus]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.28.20142190v1

By the week ending April 19, the seroprevalence in the screening group reached 19.3%

 

https://www.6sqft.com/new-york-covid-antibody-test-preliminary-results/

Today, Governor Cuomo released the results of the state’s second-phase COVID antibody test, which randomly surveyed 12,000 people between May 1 and June 13. When the survey commenced, 12.3% of New York residents tested positive, compared with 13.4% on Saturday. The new results are more telling, however, when it comes to disparities in New York City. Though overall there was only a 1.6% increase (19.9% to 21.6%)

 

But there were lots of cases from NYC from mid April to June.  The antibodies are same.

 

Is the below correct then?

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-antibodies-fade-months-study/story?id=71406787

COVID-19 antibodies may fade in as little as 2 months, study says

 

Inspite of the cases between Mid April to Mid June, the antibody numbers did not change in NYC because they are fading?

 

It depends. Although its still unknown scientifically, one emerging trend from the data so far says that if a person gets "mild" or "moderate" disease then the antibodies fade in a few months. But in the "sufficiently" sick, they have high levels of antibodies until and after convalescent phase of the infection (recovery and after). So far, the followup time has been limited. Remember, we only have had ~5 months of real tracking of this virus in humans and the infection itself lingers for at-least month in many sick patients. So this data is very preliminary.

 

It is well known scientifically that how long immunity will last for an infection (bacterial or viral or fungal) is very variable and depends on a lot of factors. For example polio and measles immunity (gained via an infection or a vaccine) lasts lifetime. Whereas flu lasts a year, getting tetanus infection and Hep C infection provides barely any long lasting immunity.

 

So in short, this is so new that we don't know yet.

[gary17]

are people feeling that the virus is bad that market has gone crazy ?

[Liberty]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/coronavirus-update-pence-vows-to-keep-opening-up-america.html

 

"Pence vows to ‘keep opening up America’ as U.S. sets new record for coronavirus cases"

 

"“But we’re going to keep up America again and have more days just like today,” Pence said."

 

Mike Pence is basically this meme:

 

[cwericb]

Meanwhile Trump says "we are doing very well" in the fight against Cronavirus.

 

And there are still people who want to keep these lunatics in office?

 

The decreasing IQ of some people is amazing. 

 

 

[Gregmal]

Gavin Newsome seems more vegetable, than vegetable eater. Cesspool West Coast has basically been in semi lockdown the entire time and still cant seem to figure out what it needs to do. Of course, it's LA leading the way with the virus, but now it seems all of the state will start suffering.

 

Most of the cases occurred in a few counties in LA and Orange County. The outbreak occurred after the lockdown was eased and bars were allowed to open. From a few anecdotal reports that I have seen causes are:

1) family festivities (Father’s Day, Memorial Day), Those May explain the timing of the delayed wave.

2) bars

 

Due to socioeconomic reasons, emigrants are more susceptible apparently and that is what we have seen in the LA area as well. LA always had more virus circulating than other areas but it seems like above factors caused the runway train wreck.

 

Again, the virus isn’t political, it doesn’t care about red or blue. If it starts to circulate freely and you don’t hammer it early and hard, the exponential growth will have its way and the results are what we are seeing.

 

I do think the social gatherings resulting from holidays plays into it, which is why, with the biggest one of the summer coming up, especially one that is rabidly celebrated by people of certain political leanings who may or may not want to wear face masks, cases could explode.

 

But I still dont get California. They just dont seem to have a clue or a plan. You can look at Texas, or Arizona and see what their plan is. They just better get it right, and given there "plan", that basically means making sure you dont run out of hospital beds. NY/NJ/Conn have a clear "plan". Obviously this differs greatly from TX/AZ/FL. But California its just kind of head scratching.

[Investor20]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

For Sweden from Mid April to now

 

the cases doubled from about 500 to 1000 per day

 

the deaths meanwhile went from 100 to less than 10 per day.

 

Doubling cases per day gave raise to tenfold reduction in deaths.

 

Yet they keep posting only the cases without deaths.