Coronavirus

[Spekulatius]

It’s not jut government deciding what to do, but also individuals and organizations. Flight trends are doen ~60% (These are search stats, but probably give a good idea). You can fly but most people don’t want to.

https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends

[muscleman]

See muscleman, that's the problem. You provided some good information back at the beginning but now you're trying to distort.

 

Protests? really? I must admit that when they were happening I thought they would lead to massive outbreaks. However at this point if you bring up protests it's clear that you're intellectually dishonest.

 

Remember the massive protests in Florida and Arizona? Look at those massive outbreaks in NYC, Philly, and Minneapolis! C'mon man.

 

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman

 

Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either...

 

Don't forget that the virus has a 14 day incubation period after infection. Then you cannot assume that people go to get tested AND get the results on the first day that they start to have symptoms. In my state WA, if I get tested, I have to wait for 3 days to get the results. So assuming that I start to have symptoms and then on day 3 I get worried and get a test, I'll get it back in 3 days, so this will be a confirmed case 3 weeks after infection. In addition, CDC's data has a one week latency in reporting.

[Dalal.Holdings]

It’s not jut government deciding what to do, but also individuals and organizations. Flight trends are doen ~60% (These are search stats, but probably give a good idea). You can fly but most people don’t want to.

https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends

 

Yeah—despite this President and his party’s best efforts, most Americans are not buying what he’s selling on how the virus is “no big deal”. The chump caved and wore a mask because he realized this. That’s why the turnout for his OK rally was low. Don’t be surprised when most Americans also do not trust the vaccine his son-in-law rushes into production...

[rb]

See muscleman, that's the problem. You provided some good information back at the beginning but now you're trying to distort.

 

Protests? really? I must admit that when they were happening I thought they would lead to massive outbreaks. However at this point if you bring up protests it's clear that you're intellectually dishonest.

 

Remember the massive protests in Florida and Arizona? Look at those massive outbreaks in NYC, Philly, and Minneapolis! C'mon man.

 

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman

 

Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either...

 

Don't forget that the virus has a 14 day incubation period after infection. Then you cannot assume that people go to get tested AND get the results on the first day that they start to have symptoms. In my state WA, if I get tested, I have to wait for 3 days to get the results. So assuming that I start to have symptoms and then on day 3 I get worried and get a test, I'll get it back in 3 days, so this will be a confirmed case 3 weeks after infection. In addition, CDC's data has a one week latency in reporting.

Sure but if you get sick you pretty reliably end up in a hospital. So do you notice that large spike in hospitalizations in NY/MN/PA/DC around 3 weeks after late may/early june? Neither do i.

[muscleman]

See muscleman, that's the problem. You provided some good information back at the beginning but now you're trying to distort.

 

Protests? really? I must admit that when they were happening I thought they would lead to massive outbreaks. However at this point if you bring up protests it's clear that you're intellectually dishonest.

 

Remember the massive protests in Florida and Arizona? Look at those massive outbreaks in NYC, Philly, and Minneapolis! C'mon man.

 

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman

 

Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either...

 

Don't forget that the virus has a 14 day incubation period after infection. Then you cannot assume that people go to get tested AND get the results on the first day that they start to have symptoms. In my state WA, if I get tested, I have to wait for 3 days to get the results. So assuming that I start to have symptoms and then on day 3 I get worried and get a test, I'll get it back in 3 days, so this will be a confirmed case 3 weeks after infection. In addition, CDC's data has a one week latency in reporting.

Sure but if you get sick you pretty reliably end up in a hospital. So do you notice that large spike in hospitalizations in NY/MN/PA/DC around 3 weeks after late may/early june? Neither do i.

 

I don't know about MN/PA/DC, but NY probably should continue to trend down because they already have herd immunity in April. My friend who worked in a hospital there said by early April, they actually already had 24% of the whole population tested antibody positive.

My prediction is that similar things will happen in FL and TX. By the end of August, things will improve dramatically. I have high conviction on this.

 

[Gregmal]

Sooooo, a few things.

 

Isn't it ironic, hypocritical, and well, typical that the same folks talking about how "if Trump had said this, or endorsed that"; "oh he should've endorsed masks sooner because its the only vaccine we have"; things would have been different... square in the face of getting called out for "yea, its not like you people would listen anyway"...are now advocating for "I won't get the vaccine even if it comes out because of Trump"?

 

Anyway. Its pretty awesome seeing someone who berated many different quality COBF members back in June for suggesting the death rate was now lower, disappear again, and then all of a sudden come back and start waiving hands, and shift gears. Basically pivoting to "death rate doesnt matter" and then moving on to other narrative filling talking points. Specifically I remember this chump belittling jamesmadison and a few others...now? Oh its not important anyway...LOL. Of course, she doesnt respond to certain people, but always seems to respond indirectly anyway.... just wait.

 

And by the way, any fool could have foreseen stimulus(check the posts as far back as February). Definitely didnt need to be a "maybe" doctor with an engineering background to see it coming. But hey, miss it entirely and then bitch about it. Such is life!

[Gregmal]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/politics/fauci-covid-2021-real-normality-axe-files/index.html?ftag=YHF4eb9d17

 

Not mentioned. Not surprisingly.

[Gregmal]

Let’s hope “this time is different” and mortality stays down...

 

 

On the path to Greatness, obviously...

 

Do you have any graphs of daily deaths?

 

Sorry, that doesn't fit their narrative.  You know what they say, however, "wait two weeks"

 

I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase??

 

+1

[Dalal.Holdings]

Sooooo, a few things.

 

Isn't it ironic, hypocritical, and well, typical that the same folks talking about how "if Trump had said this, or endorsed that"; "oh he should've endorsed masks sooner because its the only vaccine we have"; things would have been different... square in the face of getting called out for "yea, its not like you people would listen anyway"...are now advocating for "I won't get the vaccine even if it comes out because of Trump"?

 

Anyway. Its pretty awesome seeing someone who berated many different quality COBF members back in June for suggesting the death rate was now lower, disappear again, and then all of a sudden come back and start waiving hands, and shift gears. Basically pivoting to "death rate doesnt matter" and then moving on to other narrative filling talking points. Specifically I remember this chump belittling jamesmadison and a few others...now? Oh its not important anyway...LOL. Of course, she doesnt respond to certain people, but always seems to respond indirectly anyway.... just wait.

 

And by the way, any fool could have foreseen stimulus(check the posts as far back as February). Definitely didnt need to be a "maybe" doctor with an engineering background to see it coming. But hey, miss it entirely and then bitch about it. Such is life!

 

Wow, you saw this all since Feb! Revisionist much? All your wisest posts come at 3am. Lay off the bottle. Need to hear more about your assessment on people you call “savages” of a certain ethnicity. That’s where your true expertise is anyway. You must be some kind of sociologist. The virus has been no big deal, people like Greggie have been spot on, deaths are clearly not rising in USA. Trust this guy who can’t read graphs and distorts the arguments of others at 3am to soothe the fact that he’s been wrong all along (with his fav President, with the “no big deal virus”)...Dad, is that you?

 

Daily deaths are clearly not going up in USA! Please do not use Google to look it up in 2 seconds! Greggie showing how right on the money he is once again!

[Liberty]

 

This thread contains a lot of people’s experiences of getting COVID19  and how the recuperation has been up to 100 days afterwards.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Let’s hope “this time is different” and mortality stays down...

 

 

On the path to Greatness, obviously...

 

Do you have any graphs of daily deaths?

 

Sorry, that doesn't fit their narrative.  You know what they say, however, "wait two weeks"

 

I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase??

 

+1

 

 

All you had to do was use Google! Good job! Look forward to comments a few weeks from now on how you were "right" on this as well.

 

As I said, your motto should be: "Often wrong, never in doubt"! This is why I don't waste my time with these folks!

[Dalal.Holdings]

Fortunately the people who don't want to see this chart won't be able to read it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-26/europe-s-economy-set-to-outpace-u-s-in-upending-of-past-roles

 

 

Italy coming back on track! USA & Sweden stalling for some reason even now in July...just need more stimulus.

 

But any fool could have seen this back in Feb! Totally no big deal guys. We are Great Again, after all!

[Cigarbutt]

2 questions

 

-Above, it's mentioned that the virus is (obviously) "less deadly" and this is attributed to mutation(s). My humble understanding is that some aspects of virulence have been influenced by various extrinsic factors. It has not been shown so far, (AFAIK), that genetic mutations have caused a material change in virulence. Any evidence apart from testimonies coming from acquaintances or hunches?

 

-Herd immunity in NY is mentioned and, mathematically, this US sub-population is obviously closer to herd immunity. What has been the price to pay for that, what are the not-back-to-normal residual impacts and why would anybody want to reproduce the template across the country (even if there are now extrinsic factors that can mitigate, at least to some degree)?

https://transitapp.com/coronavirus

 

 

The natural history of viral spread is up and then down and it's a head scratcher as to why anybody would favor conditions that increase the spread or be complacent about results. To gamble the outcome on the potential intrinsic viral changes is reminiscent of superstitious medieval thinking and it seems like the message of enlightenment may need to be repeated once in a while.  Ask not what this virus can do for you – ask what you can do for this virus.

 

Personal note. One of my daughters (age 22 and healthy; the family lives under one roof these days) has developed symptoms compatible with COVID-19. i find it's not the fact that she may have contracted the disease that is most important and instructive, it's how she has decided to deal with the issue. We are collectively made up of individual decisions.

[Spekulatius]

Let’s hope “this time is different” and mortality stays down...

 

 

On the path to Greatness, obviously...

 

 

Do you have any graphs of daily deaths?

 

Sorry, that doesn't fit their narrative.  You know what they say, however, "wait two weeks"

 

I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase??

 

+1

Father’s Day and Memorial Day.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 questions

 

-Above, it's mentioned that the virus is (obviously) "less deadly" and this is attributed to mutation(s). My humble understanding is that some aspects of virulence have been influenced by various extrinsic factors. It has not been shown so far, (AFAIK), that genetic mutations have caused a material change in virulence. Any evidence apart from testimonies coming from acquaintances or hunches?

 

 

"Hunches" and "I heard from my friend in..." is how such individuals form opinions. Not exactly robust. They would much rather believe it's less deadly now due to mutation than utilize Occam's Razor or look at the natural history of this virus throughout the globe. When these folks are shown actual charts with actual data on the other hand, they become skeptical and go "well yeah but this chart doesn't show x now does it?" And often times what they are looking for is a Google search away (and is usually meaningless anyway). But we should trust what their friend told them on this topic...

 

-Herd immunity in NY is mentioned and, mathematically, this US sub-population is obviously closer to herd immunity. What has been the price to pay for that, what are the not-back-to-normal residual impacts and why would anybody want to reproduce the template across the country (even if there are now extrinsic factors that can mitigate, at least to some degree)?

https://transitapp.com/coronavirus

 

Some people believe 15-25% prevalence confers herd immunity...this is contrary to basic epidemiology, but they are convinced we should trust their hunches anyway. After all, what could go wrong other than lots more people dying if they are wrong?

 

The natural history of viral spread is up and then down and it's a head scratcher as to why anybody would favor conditions that increase the spread or be complacent about results. To gamble the outcome on the potential intrinsic viral changes is reminiscent of superstitious medieval thinking and it seems like the message of enlightenment may need to be repeated once in a while.  Ask not what this virus can do for you – ask what you can do for this virus.

 

 

Some people fail to understand the precautionary principle or the wisdom in "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". We are now set to continue paying in pounds and pounds of cure (stimulus, monetary policy, other measures to keep the economy afloat, etc) due to such flawed thinking in the United States.

 

Personal note. One of my daughters (age 22 and healthy; the family lives under one roof these days) has developed symptoms compatible with COVID-19. i find it's not the fact that she may have contracted the disease that is most important and instructive, it's how she has decided to deal with the issue. We are collectively made up of individual decisions.

 

Wish well to you and your family.

[rb]

See muscleman, that's the problem. You provided some good information back at the beginning but now you're trying to distort.

 

Protests? really? I must admit that when they were happening I thought they would lead to massive outbreaks. However at this point if you bring up protests it's clear that you're intellectually dishonest.

 

Remember the massive protests in Florida and Arizona? Look at those massive outbreaks in NYC, Philly, and Minneapolis! C'mon man.

 

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman

 

Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either...

 

Don't forget that the virus has a 14 day incubation period after infection. Then you cannot assume that people go to get tested AND get the results on the first day that they start to have symptoms. In my state WA, if I get tested, I have to wait for 3 days to get the results. So assuming that I start to have symptoms and then on day 3 I get worried and get a test, I'll get it back in 3 days, so this will be a confirmed case 3 weeks after infection. In addition, CDC's data has a one week latency in reporting.

Sure but if you get sick you pretty reliably end up in a hospital. So do you notice that large spike in hospitalizations in NY/MN/PA/DC around 3 weeks after late may/early june? Neither do i.

 

I don't know about MN/PA/DC, but NY probably should continue to trend down because they already have herd immunity in April. My friend who worked in a hospital there said by early April, they actually already had 24% of the whole population tested antibody positive.

My prediction is that similar things will happen in FL and TX. By the end of August, things will improve dramatically. I have high conviction on this.

I'm sorry to tell you this. But even if the 24% number is correct, that is way, way short of even heard protection let alone heard immunity.

[John Hjorth]

I'm sorry to tell you this. But even if the 24% number is correct, that is way, way short of even heard protection let alone heard immunity.

 

I agree with rb.

 

Furthermore, Investor20 posted a link to an empirical study, where antibodies appeared to fade away within about a few months.

 

The head of the Swedish Health Authority, Mr. Tegnell, yesterday publicly expressed concerns & second thoughts about the Swedish pandemic strategy, btw. [Ref. the Swedish situation has been touched recently in this topic.]

 

Personally, I'm very happy today, that my ticket in the ovarial lottery turned out to be Danish.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

In short : Don't challenge your own fate by trying to mess around with this sucker. [Also, I think that this is what Greg all the time has been expressing in his posts.]

[muscleman]

See muscleman, that's the problem. You provided some good information back at the beginning but now you're trying to distort.

 

Protests? really? I must admit that when they were happening I thought they would lead to massive outbreaks. However at this point if you bring up protests it's clear that you're intellectually dishonest.

 

Remember the massive protests in Florida and Arizona? Look at those massive outbreaks in NYC, Philly, and Minneapolis! C'mon man.

 

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman

 

Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either...

 

Don't forget that the virus has a 14 day incubation period after infection. Then you cannot assume that people go to get tested AND get the results on the first day that they start to have symptoms. In my state WA, if I get tested, I have to wait for 3 days to get the results. So assuming that I start to have symptoms and then on day 3 I get worried and get a test, I'll get it back in 3 days, so this will be a confirmed case 3 weeks after infection. In addition, CDC's data has a one week latency in reporting.

Sure but if you get sick you pretty reliably end up in a hospital. So do you notice that large spike in hospitalizations in NY/MN/PA/DC around 3 weeks after late may/early june? Neither do i.

 

I don't know about MN/PA/DC, but NY probably should continue to trend down because they already have herd immunity in April. My friend who worked in a hospital there said by early April, they actually already had 24% of the whole population tested antibody positive.

My prediction is that similar things will happen in FL and TX. By the end of August, things will improve dramatically. I have high conviction on this.

I'm sorry to tell you this. But even if the 24% number is correct, that is way, way short of even heard protection let alone heard immunity.

 

I am just surprised at how biased you are. I said 24% already in early April. Did I say 24% right now?

I have no further arguments to make.

And I reiterate my conviction that by the end of August, this whole situation will improve sharply from today. If not, I will apologize in this thread.  :)

[rb]

So you figure that it went from 24% in April in NYC to 80% now?

[Gregmal]

Too early to tell with precision, but I wonder what the impact of China’s high air pollution levels and high smoking levels (esp. men) have on complication probability for a pulmonary disease, and whether places without those negative cofactors can do significantly better.

 

 

Interesting, but the more interesting tweet I found was a couple below posting a link to this.

 

https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

 

Guess what happened next in the 20's?

 

But again, I can see how it is human and market nature to always assume the worst and then work backwards. As a historian myself, my application of understanding in situations like this, has always been to bet against the worst case scenario. If nothing else, you have the entire populations of politicians and bankers and experts working on your side. Similarly, how many people, even in a scenario like 2008, bet on failure and ended up losing? Getting squeezed out of shorts. Having insolvent counter parties? Seeing the Fed take actions that wiped out their bets? People like Peter Schiff who "called it" and still lost 80% that year. People who bought at the highs in 2007 and held tight in fact, did better than most of the doomsdayers.

 

The other arm of analysis, is, how far should this drag things down. People have mentioned a liquidity crisis, but as long as the Fed is where it is, I dont see that. Further, company profitability is not being zapped to 0, so couple this with the insanely low rates, and that debt markets certainly arent "closing". Demand in fact, should increase for issues from qualified borrowers, especially if the bond guys deem an economic seize up to be temporary. Basically just a bridge loan. If you are a shitty E&P or mining company, sure, but I'd gander 95% of S&P companies would have zero problem issuing debt.

 

So if we can eliminate liquidity induced plummet, then we have what? Just a recession to worry about. Is it possible we see Great Depression type stuff. I suppose, but probably not. Quantify what a temporary recession should do to the broader market... maybe comparable to something in the 70's or early 90s... but, most of those were greatly enhanced by energy/oil related issues and inflation, neither of which are really on the horizon here.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

 

Which one prior haven't we recovered from? Most were really just temporary shocks, similar to this, and exacerbated by program trading.

 

Further, at least here, plenty of investors prior to February, were cautious or paring down their exposure because of "valuation" concerns... in November, December, January, etc. We can call the recent rise a "blow off top", but I think thats silly considering that a 10% rise over a half year stretch isn't really a blow off top, nor did it take us anywhere that extreme compared to market levels back in 2018 or 2019. From late 2017 S&P ~2650. So from that point to today that "market" has blown off a whopping 5% annually? An 8% return would take us back to roughly were we were in January. Just because people have been crying about valuation for a long time doesnt mean it was true. Generally speaking, the "broader markets" are relatively efficient. I myself have had plenty of stocks where Ive pounded the table and said the valuation didn't make sense, but was ultimately just WRONG. Same can be said here.

 

The biggest issue I see right now is that the smart guys cant really calculate/model the impacts here so they're just throwing everything away. Still yet, I haven't really seen any of the fear driven people say where exactly the market should crash to or what levels it should now trade at. In fact, dare I say the value guys now just sound like momentum investors because "the trend is down". Again indicative of the above, and that fear is blinding.

 

 

Yea totally revisionist!

 

 

But yea, as long as he keeps shifting gears...it's all good. Just go check all those early June posts attacking anyone who dared suggest anything different than what he was selling(such as the observation that the death rate had declined) on the "Death rate lagging 2 weeks"....After all, thats why he doesnt waste his time responding...LOL, every time!

 

So yea, must be the bottle! Not that I have a Europe/Asia focused business as many here know. Hard to keep up with one of the few people here who has been caught red handed lying and caught red handed retroactively editing the content of his posts because he's always worried about "looking" right on an internet message board. Whatever....Trump's liberal alter ego, as Ive said before.

 

 

Anyway....to muscleman's post RE:NYC antibodies, I have a contact who is a director at one of the mid sized Pharma companies(IE 10B+ in size). I had a lunch meeting with him about two weeks ago and something similar was brought up. That the internal research seemed to indicate this had largely "done its damage" in NY/NJ area, and was following the same path in the southern states. That there'd be flare ups, but that the worst was behind us in these areas. And that they concluded working towards a vaccine wasn't worthwhile(from an economic perspective), partially because of this. And that those "vaccine first movers" where largely subsidized by huge gobs of government money and incentives, as the "race for a vaccine" is very much a political trophy and "national bragging" right. Its certainly a shame some of these things have to intersect, but thats the world we live in.

[John Hjorth]

... I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase??

Father’s Day and Memorial Day.

 

Mind boggling, to say the least. I speculate Dustin Kruger & David Dunning are on the think bench for a design of an empirical test, for a part two, Corona-related.

 

Edit:

 

Not in any way meant as a snide comment towards James!

[Cigarbutt]

Concerning herd immunity, it seems that New York city is reaching this zone, with the added feature that 'adjusted' herd immunity needs to be integrated into an 'adjusted' new normal. Have you tried to do your groceries, visit somebody in a nursing home, go to a liquor stores, go downtown or use the public transits?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0732889320305058

The aim of the study was to correlate severity of symptoms with antibody levels (which it does well) and one of the secondary benefits from the study was to look at the general prevalence of antibodies in people living in New York city and the surrounding suburbs (one-month period from May 5, 2020 through June 5, 2020). They suggest a 44% positive seroconversion rate (although there are some methodological issues, especially concerns about selection criteria versus the notion of the general population). However, given the relative fleeting aspect of antibody presence that is being defined after CV, it's possible that studies to be published will not show higher levels of seroconversion (at least using the specific metric) even when the disease has done maximum potential damage under non or poorly controlled circumstances.

And yes, a similar pattern may be occurring in the southern states and what we see is what happens in a slightly improved new normal.

@Muscleman

i agree that things will tend to improve. In fact, it's the basis for "treatment" for several human diseases (especially first world type) where the idea is to distract the patient until the disease follows its natural course.

@Gregmal (submitted for constructive purposes)

i appreciate your inputs but you (your argumentative style) remind me of some acquaintances i see occasionally (not as often these days because of distancing) and who tell me that they recently lost a few pounds. Mentally, i just notice that they just look the same and may, in fact, have gotten bigger. i must be missing part of the story.

 

I love the US (and most Americans) and plan to locate temporarily (in a few years) during the winter months. i've looked at a few places including, for some specific reasons, Arizona. Arizona is not perfectly representative of the whole nation but they have recently reported CV death rates that result in the equivalent of yearly flu deaths every two weeks. But yeah, things are looking up. They also report (some report this in a positive light) that "only" about 50% of ventilators used in the state are venting CV patients. As of July 2020, everything can be interpreted positively but i find this statistic frankly embarrassing, if not appalling.

[orthopa]

I'm sorry to tell you this. But even if the 24% number is correct, that is way, way short of even heard protection let alone heard immunity.

 

I agree with rb.

 

Furthermore, Investor20 posted a link to an empirical study, where antibodies appeared to fade away within about a few months.

 

The head of the Swedish Health Authority, Mr. Tegnell, yesterday publicly expressed concerns & second thoughts about the Swedish pandemic strategy, btw. [Ref. the Swedish situation has been touched recently in this topic.]

 

Personally, I'm very happy today, that my ticket in the ovarial lottery turned out to be Danish.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

In short : Don't challenge your own fate by trying to mess around with this sucker. [Also, I think that this is what Greg all the time has been expressing in his posts.]

 

Dont overlook cellular immunity which is the better way to look at immunity. Just looking at antibodies gives an incomplete picture and if not all the great majority of people should have long term immunity regardless of IgM, IgG antibody counts.

[muscleman]

I'm sorry to tell you this. But even if the 24% number is correct, that is way, way short of even heard protection let alone heard immunity.

 

I agree with rb.

 

Furthermore, Investor20 posted a link to an empirical study, where antibodies appeared to fade away within about a few months.

 

The head of the Swedish Health Authority, Mr. Tegnell, yesterday publicly expressed concerns & second thoughts about the Swedish pandemic strategy, btw. [Ref. the Swedish situation has been touched recently in this topic.]

 

Personally, I'm very happy today, that my ticket in the ovarial lottery turned out to be Danish.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

In short : Don't challenge your own fate by trying to mess around with this sucker. [Also, I think that this is what Greg all the time has been expressing in his posts.]

 

Dont overlook cellular immunity which is the better way to look at immunity. Just looking at antibodies gives an incomplete picture and if not all the great majority of people should have long term immunity regardless of IgM, IgG antibody counts.

 

Most of the folks here probably don't know what cellular immunity is, which is why I didn't even bother to mention it. :)

[Investor20]

I'm sorry to tell you this. But even if the 24% number is correct, that is way, way short of even heard protection let alone heard immunity.

 

I agree with rb.

 

Furthermore, Investor20 posted a link to an empirical study, where antibodies appeared to fade away within about a few months.

 

The head of the Swedish Health Authority, Mr. Tegnell, yesterday publicly expressed concerns & second thoughts about the Swedish pandemic strategy, btw. [Ref. the Swedish situation has been touched recently in this topic.]

 

Personally, I'm very happy today, that my ticket in the ovarial lottery turned out to be Danish.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

In short : Don't challenge your own fate by trying to mess around with this sucker. [Also, I think that this is what Greg all the time has been expressing in his posts.]

 

Dont overlook cellular immunity which is the better way to look at immunity. Just looking at antibodies gives an incomplete picture and if not all the great majority of people should have long term immunity regardless of IgM, IgG antibody counts.

 

Most of the folks here probably don't know what cellular immunity is, which is why I didn't even bother to mention it. :)

 

Several research articles recently found considerable cross-immunity from other Coronaviruses, upto 50%. Some examples below:

 

""Our team also tested uninfected healthy individuals and found SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in more than 50 percent of them. This could be due to cross-reactive immunity obtained from exposure to other coronaviruses, such as those causing the common cold, or presently unknown animal coronaviruses."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200716101536.htm

 

Another article on this:

 

Taken together, five studies report evidence of pre-existing T cells that recognize SARS-CoV-2 in a significant fraction of people from diverse geographical locations.

 

For example "Finally, a study of individuals in Singapore, by Le Bert et al.4, reported T cell responses to nucleocapsid protein nsp7 or nsp13 in 50% of subjects with no historyof SARS, COVID-19, or contact with patients with SARS or COVID-19. "

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z

 

This to me gives a good reason why cases stop going up well below what we think is a herd immunity.  If there is already a 50% cross-immunity from other Coronaviruses, then we wont need more than 20-25% seroprevalence of antibodies to achieve herd immunity.

 

For example, recently in Delhi, India they got 25% seroprevalence.  The cases in Delhi were going down for past one month.