Coronavirus

[Ross812]

For the guys who are super concerned with the virus, are you in cash? Were you in cash a month or two ago?

 

They must be. Otherwise they wouldn't be so frustrated right now. But I would prefer to confine this discussion to COVID only.

 

Fair enough. Just trying to get a feel for their emotions. I figured if they moved from cash to investments, perhaps that's a contrary indicator.

 

I am really worried about the US sitting at 11% unemployment right now and I think the stock market is being propped up by savings from those who are employed and the system is stable because the government is essentially paying those prevented from working to stay home.

 

Ex. As an employed person, instead of spending 10k on a hotels, eating out, and shopping this summer I left the money in the bank or moved it into an investment account. That 10k that would have went to the waiter, hotel staff etc. has been added to the government balance sheet.

 

I think another round of shut downs will happen in the fall/winter once the northern states go inside for winter and I don't really see good behavior from the populace as a whole that is going to allow life to return to normal. If the payments to the 11% unemployed stop, we are going to see defaults on rents, mortgages, and other debt and fallout is going to pivot from the government to those holding the capital.

 

I have been extremely conservative in how I have been investing for several years as I manage money for several retirees. My drawdown in March was 6%. I am sitting in a combination of CDs, Treasury Futures, PIMIX, PAIDX, IAU, and TIPS. I bought bull call spreads on FAANG stocks in March and called away in June. Since June I have been playing around with selling weeklys on KMI and WFC. I am waiting for a the VIX to drop in order to but longer dated call options on SPX.     

[muscleman]

For the guys who are super concerned with the virus, are you in cash? Were you in cash a month or two ago?

 

They must be. Otherwise they wouldn't be so frustrated right now. But I would prefer to confine this discussion to COVID only.

 

When holding cash is considered flawed on a value site (after 11 year bull run, >30% S&P return in prior yr, near ATH): run. Good luck being fully invested on “high conviction” beliefs about imminent herd immunity. I thought you said there would be a market crash when it happened too???

 

Like I said, I maintain ample liquidity in times of wide uncertainty. I will not be overly concerned/frustrated if I underperform a rising market in 2020-2021. Certain investments like PTON, AKAM offset whatever I miss out on with my cash pile anyway. I’m more interested in outperforming a slumping market/economy than a surging one after the past 11 year bull market (downside protection, precautionary principle).

 

If I’m frustrated about anything, it’s the long term (economic and other) damage covid mismanagement has inflicted on my country.

 

Whatever your investment decision, that's your money. Please don't let your investment decisions infect the objective judgement of how the COVID situations progress from now on. It is pure data and science.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

For the guys who are super concerned with the virus, are you in cash? Were you in cash a month or two ago?

 

They must be. Otherwise they wouldn't be so frustrated right now. But I would prefer to confine this discussion to COVID only.

 

When holding cash is considered flawed on a value site (after 11 year bull run, >30% S&P return in prior yr, near ATH): run. Good luck being fully invested on “high conviction” beliefs about imminent herd immunity. I thought you said there would be a market crash when it happened too???

 

Like I said, I maintain ample liquidity in times of wide uncertainty. I will not be overly concerned/frustrated if I underperform a rising market in 2020-2021. Certain investments like PTON, AKAM offset whatever I miss out on with my cash pile anyway. I’m more interested in outperforming a slumping market/economy than a surging one after the past 11 year bull market (downside protection, precautionary principle).

 

If I’m frustrated about anything, it’s the long term (economic and other) damage covid mismanagement has inflicted on my country.

 

Whatever your investment decision, that's your money. Please don't let your investment decisions infect the objective judgement of how the COVID situations progress from now on. It is pure data and science.

In terms of the market, yes I think once the COVID situation is over, there will be a crash.

 

Lol. Please don't accuse me of things that are not true. You repeatedly deny things related to covid and ask for "more graphs", but have nothing to say when the graph you ask for is posted. Not objective at all. If Covid will be over due to herd immunity in the next 30 days and "there will be a crash" with "high conviction", then holding cash seems to be a wise position to be in, so amusing to poke fun at cash holders...

 

My investment decisions did not influence my statements back in March about exponential growth in the U.S. for covid and also did not influence my statements about rising deaths as a result of rising cases in June in the South/Southwest (deaths now at about 7,000 Americans per week). These things panned out, sorry to say. As far as my economic concerns, they come from the pandemic, not the other way around: covid --> long term economic impacts

 

You say it's "pure data and science" yet we cannot even have a consensus about HCQ on a supposedly objective investment thread. And you cannot even acknowledge the multi $Trillion failure that is occurring here but not other G7 countries:

 

[muscleman]

For the guys who are super concerned with the virus, are you in cash? Were you in cash a month or two ago?

 

They must be. Otherwise they wouldn't be so frustrated right now. But I would prefer to confine this discussion to COVID only.

 

When holding cash is considered flawed on a value site (after 11 year bull run, >30% S&P return in prior yr, near ATH): run. Good luck being fully invested on “high conviction” beliefs about imminent herd immunity. I thought you said there would be a market crash when it happened too???

 

Like I said, I maintain ample liquidity in times of wide uncertainty. I will not be overly concerned/frustrated if I underperform a rising market in 2020-2021. Certain investments like PTON, AKAM offset whatever I miss out on with my cash pile anyway. I’m more interested in outperforming a slumping market/economy than a surging one after the past 11 year bull market (downside protection, precautionary principle).

 

If I’m frustrated about anything, it’s the long term (economic and other) damage covid mismanagement has inflicted on my country.

 

Whatever your investment decision, that's your money. Please don't let your investment decisions infect the objective judgement of how the COVID situations progress from now on. It is pure data and science.

In terms of the market, yes I think once the COVID situation is over, there will be a crash.

 

Lol. Please don't accuse me of things that are not true. You repeatedly deny things related to covid and ask for "more graphs", but have nothing to say when the graph you ask for is posted. Not objective at all. If Covid will be over due to herd immunity in the next 30 days and "there will be a crash" with "high conviction", then holding cash seems to be a wise position to be in, so amusing to poke fun at cash holders...

 

My investment decisions did not influence my statements back in March about exponential growth in the U.S. for covid and also did not influence my statements about rising deaths as a result of rising cases in June in the South/Southwest (deaths now at about 7,000 Americans per week). These things panned out, sorry to say. As far as my economic concerns, they come from the pandemic, not the other way around: covid --> long term economic impacts

 

You say it's "pure data and science" yet we cannot even have a consensus about HCQ on a supposedly objective investment thread. And you cannot even acknowledge the multi $Trillion failure that is occurring here but not other G7 countries:

 

 

Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it:

I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it:

I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone.

 

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians.

 

I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested.

 

But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail...

[Jurgis]

Ok, this is a must watch. Playing with masks and blowtorches.. some nice backyard science:

 

 

Conclusion: if you keep blowtorch in front of your face, all the viruses will burn to crisp. #novirus #nofear

[muscleman]

Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it:

I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone.

 

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians.

 

I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested.

 

But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail...

 

Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that?

[Dalal.Holdings]

Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it:

I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone.

 

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians.

 

I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested.

 

But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail...

 

Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that?

 

You don't need to do anything. You could post the reasons why you have such a high conviction with supporting data and that can be discussed on here, but repeatedly posting you have "high conviction" on covid dramatically falling due to herd immunity without supporting data/evidence as to why does not add much to the discussion.

 

Covid improving dramatically next month is certainly within the realm of possibility. In NY it too dropped "dramatically" from April to May as far as new daily cases. However, NY's economy remained shut for that time for it to happen--it wasn't herd immunity, but unprecedented economic shutdown that turned the tide.

[Spekulatius]

Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it:

I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone.

 

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians.

 

I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested.

 

But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail...

 

Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that?

 

I am pretty sure the infection rates will be going down near term, but predicting the infection rates really didn’t help much predicting the stock market at all.

I also think come fall and in particular post Thanksgiving, the Infection rates will start rising again most likely. However by then, the election Outcome is likely more important for the stock market.

[muscleman]

Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it:

I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone.

 

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians.

 

I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested.

 

But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail...

 

Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that?

 

I am pretty sure the infection rates will be going down near term, but predicting the infection rates really didn’t help much predicting the stock market at all.

I also think come fall and in particular post Thanksgiving, the Infection rates will start rising again most likely. However by then, the election Outcome is likely more important for the stock market.

 

No I don't think it will rise again in the fall to Thanksgiving.

Maybe COVID will not help predicting the stock market but this is the COVID thread so discussion of COVID going forward should be the top priority here.

[Investor20]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/15-high-rises-2-slums-on-list-of-31-containment-zones/articleshow/77188071.cms

Kolkata: 15 high-rises, two slums on list of 31 containment  ..

The above website wont let me cut and paste. Few points:

High-rises seen 108% increase while slums seen 60% jump in Mumbai.

In Delhi most cases are from apartments (Not slums!)

Why would slums with crowding (that is lacking distancing), lacking continuous water supply (Washing hands), poor people probably lacking good masks would be doing better than high rise apartments? 

Is it Ventilation?

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor.

You mean they have more cross immunity to other coronaviruses?

Not necessarily cross immunity to viruses. Just a stronger immune system and a better response. If you're living in squalor you'll generally have a much better immune system and better immune response than some fat guy that drives everywhere and washes regularly. It's also a big part of the reason why there are less people with allergies in developing countries.

Allergies are over reaction of immune system. Your evidence says poorer people have less immunity.

Covid-19 is much more prevalent in lower income groups in US, which is shown in NYC.  But that is usually explained because of crowding in smaller housing.

But that is not the case in India.  Slums with high crowding have lower Covid-19.

Yes allergies are an over reaction of the immune system. But you're looking this in an over-simplified way. Like in any fight/battle the level of strength is not all that matters. Tactics matter a great deal as well. So the guy who grew up a (relatively) rich life in America who's mom was always there with Purell go clean the germs may have a strong immune system because he is healthy and not malnourished etc... But the Indian who grew up in squalor playing in dirt and shit with not a bar of soap in sight has an immune system that is better equipped to deal with threats because it has been exposed to so many pathogens. That's why the rich guy's immune system goes like Holy Shit! A nut, Red Alert, DEFCON 1! and the poor guy's immune system goes like, oh a nut, that looks yummy.

To put this another way the rich guy's immune system is like a white guy that attends private school, goes to the gym 3 times a week to pump lift weights for 2 hours, drinks protein shakes. The poor guy's immune system is like a dirt-under-fingernails street fighter from the bad side of Jakarta. Christopher over there looks pretty impressive. But which one of the two do you want backing you in a dark alley fight?

@rb

I respect your opinion about squalor-induced immunity (...) because of your overall strong analytical skills but i will keep this 'evidence' at the anecdotal level (of questionable validity).

 

@Investor20

There is a recent report from Mumbai that points to evidence going against your strong belief that ventilation should be a primary consideration:

https://www.firstpost.com/health/covid-19-antibodies-found-in-57-of-mumbai-slum-residents-in-limited-serosurvey-by-niti-aayog-bmc-tifr-8651091.html

When the facts change...

 

So why such a low mortality in slums?

There are many competing theories but age may be a determining factor. This is still relatively ill defined as there are many risk factors but some work shows that age (exponential rise in relative risk with age) is the primary determining factor in most cases. See page 8, figure 3.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2521-4_reference.pdf

What about the age profile in slums?

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Age-Classification-of-Slum-Population_tbl1_262123665

 

The 1967 James Bond movie You Only Live Twice is a great movie (anecdotal opinion) but, in this case, it's the 1993 spoof version You Only Live Once that wins the evidence prize.

 

It is not just that the mortality is less in the slums.  It is the degree with which it is less.

 

"Of a population as big as a million people, Dharavi has recorded 253 deaths." (1)

 

(253/570,000)*100 = 0.04%.  This is more than two fold less than what is generally quoted as 0.1% fatality rate for flu.

 

I usually look at both PCR tests and deaths.  It is this deaths number that made me believe that the infection rate is low.

 

Can just younger age explain such a low infection fatality rate?  If so, it raises a question, why everyone has to be locked down when younger people have two fold less than flu IFR. Isnt it possible to take care of elderly and let the virus come to herd immunity within the younger population?

 

(1) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-29/herd-immunity-seems-to-be-developing-in-mumbai-s-poorest-areas

 

[Liberty]

 

HUGE—Now we are certain—VIRUS aerosol in the air, when captured from a room, can be infectious. Scientists just proved it by doing just that from hospital ward room, and using the air sample to infect a cell. Aerosol transmission is very real risk.

[Cigarbutt]

...

It is not just that the mortality is less in the slums.  It is the degree with which it is less.

 

"Of a population as big as a million people, Dharavi has recorded 253 deaths." (1)

 

(253/570,000)*100 = 0.04%.  This is more than two fold less than what is generally quoted as 0.1% fatality rate for flu.

 

I usually look at both PCR tests and deaths.  It is this deaths number that made me believe that the infection rate is low.

 

Can just younger age explain such a low infection fatality rate?  If so, it raises a question, why everyone has to be locked down when younger people have two fold less than flu IFR. Isnt it possible to take care of elderly and let the virus come to herd immunity within the younger population?

 

(1) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-29/herd-immunity-seems-to-be-developing-in-mumbai-s-poorest-areas

-What is your definition of elderly (varies a lot according to history, developing vs developed etc)?

-What is your definition of "take care of"?

Through very real progress and, more recently, through medical quantitative easing, the population pyramids have changed (shape and associated risk factors) in the developed world. Although each death (especially if preventable) can be a potential tragedy, deaths in the adult developed world (age 15-59) are now quite uncommon (forgetting the new developing death of despair phenomenon in selected sub-groups). Your strategy (let's call it the slum strategy) would raise very interesting questions for the adult community in the US and elsewhere, especially in the 40 to 59 age groups (according to reported age segmented fatality rates) and especially for those going in the trenches.

[Liberty]

This thread is both entertaining and sad:

 

[muscleman]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/20/chris-cuomo-took-less-safe-version-of-hydroxychloroquine-mcenany/

 

HCQ is just another drug being politicized in the US.

[Gregmal]

It is kind of strange how invested some people seem to be in proclaiming HCQ as either effective or ineffective.

[Liberty]

It is kind of strange how invested some people seem to be in proclaiming HCQ as either effective or ineffective.

 

Trump pathologically can't admit mistakes, and early on he needed to peddle some miracle cure to reassure people, so he jumped on the early positive news about HCQ but pushed it way way way farther than the evidence supported, so here we are. He can't really reverse on it, and his followers take their cues from him, rather than from the science. Heck, the feds bought 60 million doses, so even more incentives to say it works... Personally, I'll trust Fauci over Trump and his 'demon sperm and alien DNA' doctor on this topic.

 

Meanwhile in New Zealand:

 

[Castanza]

It is kind of strange how invested some people seem to be in proclaiming HCQ as either effective or ineffective.

 

Trump pathologically can't admit mistakes, and early on he needed to peddle some miracle cure to reassure people, so he jumped on the early positive news about HCQ but pushed it way way way farther than the evidence supported, so here we are. He can't really reverse on it, and his followers take their cues from him, rather than from the science. Heck, the feds bought 60 million doses, so even more incentives to say it works... Personally, I'll trust Fauci over Trump and his 'demon sperm' doctor on this topic.

 

Meanwhile in New Zealand:

 

 

It's ironic...the same individuals bashing this "demon sperm doctor" for her views are the same ones who say men can be women and men can give birth and have periods...

 

As far as HCQ goes (and I don't know much) is there any reason to prevent individuals from taking it? I don't understand the divisiveness outside of the politics. This whole thing reminds me of the essential oil and cbd oil crowds but at a national level.

 

 

[Liberty]

It's ironic...the same individuals bashing this "demon sperm doctor" for her views are the same ones who say men can be women and men can give birth and have periods...

 

Wow that's quite the non-sequitur. It's not even wrong, it's just, nothing at all.

 

Do you often just plug something you have on the mind into an unrelated discussion like that? Might want to have that checked out.

 

Pretty sure everyone who's not bonkers doesn't think that demon sperm infecting you in your sleep is crazy and that this "doctor" doesn't sound very sane and qualified to give medical advice on critical drug research.

 

"Immanuel, a pediatrician and a religious minister, has a history of making bizarre claims about medical topics and other issues. She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.

 

She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious."

 

If you don't think it's INSANE for the president of the US to be simultaneously promoting this "doctor" while attacking Fauci, you probably have had too much love with demons in your dreams..

 

As far as HCQ goes (and I don't know much) is there any reason to prevent individuals from taking it? I don't understand the divisiveness outside of the politics. This whole thing reminds me of the essential oil and cbd oil crowds but at a national level.

 

Well, if it's not effective, and can have dangerous side effects for some people, why would people take it? And claiming something is a cure for a disease for which there is currently no cure is EXTREMELY dangerous, as it'll modify people's behavior and perception of risk and more people will get sick and die and infect others than otherwise, causing more suffering and economic damage than would be the case if people were, y'know, more rational about it.

 

Otherwise, why not go to the pharmacy and just pick stuff at random and take it and tell others to take it too, while at it? It's all FDA-approved, right? Is that the standard?

[Investor20]

It's ironic...the same individuals bashing this "demon sperm doctor" for her views are the same ones who say men can be women and men can give birth and have periods...

 

Wow that's quite the non-sequitur. It's not even wrong, it's just, nothing at all.

 

Do you often just plug something you have on the mind into an unrelated discussion like that? Might want to have that checked out.

 

Pretty sure everyone who's not bonkers doesn't think that demon sperm infecting you in your sleep is crazy and that this "doctor" doesn't sound very sane and qualified to give medical advice on critical drug research.

 

"Immanuel, a pediatrician and a religious minister, has a history of making bizarre claims about medical topics and other issues. She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.

 

She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious."

 

If you don't think it's INSANE for the president of the US to be simultaneously promoting this "doctor" while attacking Fauci, you probably have had too much love with demons in your dreams..

 

As far as HCQ goes (and I don't know much) is there any reason to prevent individuals from taking it? I don't understand the divisiveness outside of the politics. This whole thing reminds me of the essential oil and cbd oil crowds but at a national level.

 

Well, if it's not effective, and can have dangerous side effects for some people, why would people take it? And claiming something is a cure for a disease for which there is currently no cure is EXTREMELY dangerous, as it'll modify people's behavior and perception of risk and more people will get sick and die and infect others than otherwise, causing more suffering and economic damage than would be the case if people were, y'know, more rational about it.

 

Otherwise, why not go to the pharmacy and just pick stuff at random and take it and tell others to take it too, while at it? It's all FDA-approved, right? Is that the standard?

 

Did anyone actually test the HCQ + Zinc + Azithromycin at doses that these doctors say it works with following criteria:

 

1) Has to be given immediately after getting sick as soon as symptoms are onset.

2) HCQ works better with Zinc.

3) So, it needs to be studied in a primary care physician stage, not at a hospital stage because it is too late.

 

There is not one RCT done with this combination with above criteria.

 

The only study that is published with these criteria is by Dr. Zelenko. 

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202007.0025/v1

They had 4 hospitalizations and 1 death of 141 symptomatic patients at their clinic.  Their control is really not a control in terms of an RCT but a comparative number with no patient information.  But 1 death of 141 symptomatic patients is low.

 

A retrospective study was done by NYU Grossman which I posted several times already.  In that study adding Zinc to HCQ+Azithromycin reduced the deaths by 44%.

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/05/12/nyu-study-looks-at-hydroxychloroquine-zinc-azithromycin-combo-on-decreasing-covid-19-deaths

 

I dont know any other studies with HCQ+Zinc+Azithromycin. Above two studies showed very encouraging data.

 

Many studies had HCQ only without Zinc, but even these when given very early it did work such as in Henry Ford study or several Indian studies where it was used as prophylaxis.

 

Unfortunately too many studies published with HCQ have many defective protocols such as recruiting patients online without PCR confirmation (how do you know they are not Flu patients?), dosing as late as 9th day, dosing patients having already low Oxygen, etc.

 

An example is the following NEJM study which was highly publicized.  However, reading it

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638

 

Most volunteers were not tested by PCR:

 

Because of limited access to prompt testing, health care workers could initially be enrolled on the basis of presumptive high-risk exposure to patients with pending tests; however, on March 23, eligibility was changed to exposure to a person with a positive polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) assay for SARS-CoV-2, 

 

In appendix they had "Lab-confirmed Diagnosis 11 (2.7%)" for HCQ arm.

 

Too low a age:  "The median age was 40 years".  When almost everyone in placebo also gets better how do you show a difference?

 

Result: Two hospitalizations were reported (one in each group). No arrhythmias or deaths occurred.

 

This is of total 800+ volunteers.

 

Recently I posted a study in India where they tested over 100,000 people with PCR testing with HCQ as a prophylaxis on weekly dosing in that the number of volunteers testing positive goes down with weeks of administration.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/vadodara-administration-drive-hcq-helping-in-containing-covid-19-cases-say-docs-as-analysis-begins-6486049/

 

Would you depend on 100,000 volunteers study with PCR testing or a 400 in each arm study where only one in each arm got hospitalized with zero deaths with only 2% getting a PCR test?

 

 

[Castanza]

It's ironic...the same individuals bashing this "demon sperm doctor" for her views are the same ones who say men can be women and men can give birth and have periods...

 

Wow that's quite the non-sequitur. It's not even wrong, it's just, nothing at all.

 

Do you often just plug something you have on the mind into an unrelated discussion like that? Might want to have that checked out.

 

Pretty sure everyone who's not bonkers doesn't think that demon sperm infecting you in your sleep is crazy and that this "doctor" doesn't sound very sane and qualified to give medical advice on critical drug research.

 

"Immanuel, a pediatrician and a religious minister, has a history of making bizarre claims about medical topics and other issues. She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.

 

She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious."

 

If you don't think it's INSANE for the president of the US to be simultaneously promoting this "doctor" while attacking Fauci, you probably have had too much love with demons in your dreams..

 

As far as HCQ goes (and I don't know much) is there any reason to prevent individuals from taking it? I don't understand the divisiveness outside of the politics. This whole thing reminds me of the essential oil and cbd oil crowds but at a national level.

 

Well, if it's not effective, and can have dangerous side effects for some people, why would people take it? And claiming something is a cure for a disease for which there is currently no cure is EXTREMELY dangerous, as it'll modify people's behavior and perception of risk and more people will get sick and die and infect others than otherwise, causing more suffering and economic damage than would be the case if people were, y'know, more rational about it.

 

Otherwise, why not go to the pharmacy and just pick stuff at random and take it and tell others to take it too, while at it? It's all FDA-approved, right? Is that the standard?

 

I think both are equally bonkers....just pointing out the hypocrisy from certain camps. Your insertion of her "demon sperm opinion" has no relation to her opinion on HCQ just saying...What I said is not a non-sequitur, but discrediting her views on HCQ because of her other beliefs is.. 

 

Also, regardless of her views if she has been granted an MD license from the mighty AMA why wouldn't she be able to practice medicine or give her opinion?

 

I'm not advocating for HCQ...I have no opinion on whether it works or not.

[Viking]

I am not sure why there continues to be so much debate about pretty much anything Trump says. He has demonstrated over and over again to be an unabashed liar. When he talks why would anyone take anything he has to say seriously?

[Liberty]

It's ironic...the same individuals bashing this "demon sperm doctor" for her views are the same ones who say men can be women and men can give birth and have periods...

 

Wow that's quite the non-sequitur. It's not even wrong, it's just, nothing at all.

 

Do you often just plug something you have on the mind into an unrelated discussion like that? Might want to have that checked out.

 

Pretty sure everyone who's not bonkers doesn't think that demon sperm infecting you in your sleep is crazy and that this "doctor" doesn't sound very sane and qualified to give medical advice on critical drug research.

 

"Immanuel, a pediatrician and a religious minister, has a history of making bizarre claims about medical topics and other issues. She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.

 

She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious."

 

If you don't think it's INSANE for the president of the US to be simultaneously promoting this "doctor" while attacking Fauci, you probably have had too much love with demons in your dreams..

 

As far as HCQ goes (and I don't know much) is there any reason to prevent individuals from taking it? I don't understand the divisiveness outside of the politics. This whole thing reminds me of the essential oil and cbd oil crowds but at a national level.

 

Well, if it's not effective, and can have dangerous side effects for some people, why would people take it? And claiming something is a cure for a disease for which there is currently no cure is EXTREMELY dangerous, as it'll modify people's behavior and perception of risk and more people will get sick and die and infect others than otherwise, causing more suffering and economic damage than would be the case if people were, y'know, more rational about it.

 

Otherwise, why not go to the pharmacy and just pick stuff at random and take it and tell others to take it too, while at it? It's all FDA-approved, right? Is that the standard?

 

I think both are equally bonkers....just pointing out the hypocrisy from certain camps. Your insertion of her "demon sperm opinion" has no relation to her opinion on HCQ just saying...What I said is not a non-sequitur, but discrediting her views on HCQ because of her other beliefs is.. 

 

Also, regardless of her views if she has been granted an MD license from the mighty AMA why wouldn't she be able to practice medicine or give her opinion?

 

I'm not advocating for HCQ...I have no opinion on whether it works or not.

 

Both may or may not be bonkers, but they have nothing to do with each other. That's what non-sequitur means.

 

As for a license, I'm sure you know that there are bad doctors, lawyers, pilots, plumbers, etc. You judge people on their words and actions, not on pieces of papers, and he words are those of an insane person.

[Investor20]

I am not sure why there continues to be so much debate about pretty much anything Trump says. He has demonstrated over and over again to be an unabashed liar. When he talks why would anyone take anything he has to say seriously?

 

The question is does HCQ+Zinc+Azithromycin when given very early on onset of symptoms works for Covid or Not?

 

Can you show me an RCT done to answer this question?  This is what that doctor was talking about.  The only way to answer if she is correct or not is by doing a study or accept her experience as correct. 

 

The only two studies I know of this combination that I posted little bit earlier show encouraging results.

 

Can you show me an RCT for Remedisivir that improves mortality?

 

HCQ is almost free.  Remedisivir is very expensive and takes IV in hospital. 

[Castanza]

It's ironic...the same individuals bashing this "demon sperm doctor" for her views are the same ones who say men can be women and men can give birth and have periods...

 

Wow that's quite the non-sequitur. It's not even wrong, it's just, nothing at all.

 

Do you often just plug something you have on the mind into an unrelated discussion like that? Might want to have that checked out.

 

Pretty sure everyone who's not bonkers doesn't think that demon sperm infecting you in your sleep is crazy and that this "doctor" doesn't sound very sane and qualified to give medical advice on critical drug research.

 

"Immanuel, a pediatrician and a religious minister, has a history of making bizarre claims about medical topics and other issues. She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.

 

She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious."

 

If you don't think it's INSANE for the president of the US to be simultaneously promoting this "doctor" while attacking Fauci, you probably have had too much love with demons in your dreams..

 

As far as HCQ goes (and I don't know much) is there any reason to prevent individuals from taking it? I don't understand the divisiveness outside of the politics. This whole thing reminds me of the essential oil and cbd oil crowds but at a national level.

 

Well, if it's not effective, and can have dangerous side effects for some people, why would people take it? And claiming something is a cure for a disease for which there is currently no cure is EXTREMELY dangerous, as it'll modify people's behavior and perception of risk and more people will get sick and die and infect others than otherwise, causing more suffering and economic damage than would be the case if people were, y'know, more rational about it.

 

Otherwise, why not go to the pharmacy and just pick stuff at random and take it and tell others to take it too, while at it? It's all FDA-approved, right? Is that the standard?

 

I think both are equally bonkers....just pointing out the hypocrisy from certain camps. Your insertion of her "demon sperm opinion" has no relation to her opinion on HCQ just saying...What I said is not a non-sequitur, but discrediting her views on HCQ because of her other beliefs is.. 

 

Also, regardless of her views if she has been granted an MD license from the mighty AMA why wouldn't she be able to practice medicine or give her opinion?

 

I'm not advocating for HCQ...I have no opinion on whether it works or not.

 

Both may or may not be bonkers, but they have nothing to do with each other. That's what non-sequitur means.

 

As for a license, I'm sure you know that there are bad doctors, lawyers, pilots, plumbers, etc. You judge people on their words and actions, not on pieces of papers, and he words are those of an insane person.

 

How far along would science be if we disregarded opinions of those on certain subjects because they hold odd views in other unrelated areas?

 

The answer is not very far.