Dalal.Holdings Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 So much for that "herd immunity in NY" thesis: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-30/berlin-protest-turns-violent-u-s-cases-pick-up-virus-update New York Outbreaks Hit Buffalo, SUNY (12:30 p.m. NY) Western New York state is seeing an outbreak of Covid-19 cases. Buffalo, a city of about 250,000 on the Canadian border, reported an infection rate of 5.5% yesterday, compared with the statewide rate of 0.69%, Governor Andrew Cuomo said on a call with reporters on Sunday. The State University of New York’s Oneonta campus is suspending in-person instruction for two weeks after several large parties led to an outbreak. As of Sunday morning, 105 people are confirmed positive, representing about 3% of student and faculty on the campus, SUNY Chancellor Jim Malatras said. Let me guess, when they said "herd immunity in NY", they just meant NYC... This is what happens when you get overconfident in a widely uncertain situation with large downside...now there's a risk this just continues on and on in the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Shit, and here I thought, by NY, they meant Roscoe, NY....what a tool. Couple hundred college students get COVID, markets downs 8,000 points. Go to cash. Short everything. This is what happens with wide uncertainty! Large downside! Did I mention, we're going to get more covid cases! Cuomo, what do we do with the nursing home folks this time? Ahhhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Lol. Taleb is for nerds. Gambling is just entertainment. There is nothing worthwhile an investor could learn from Thorp. Only math geeks care about exponential growth, tail events, and probabilities! You keep doing you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 And you keep doing your thing. Making things up. Crying wolf. Misrepresenting things. I mean we've seen plenty of people present herd immunity data for NYC, and here you come with Buffalo! LOL.... "For analytical eyes only!" All 33 of them! The stakes are high! And FYI. MGM MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates integrated casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts in the United States and Macau. The company operates through three segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, and MGM China. Its casino resorts offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. The company's casino operations include slots, table games, and race and sports book wagering. As of March 22, 2020, its portfolio consisted of 29 hotel and destination gaming offerings. The company also owns and operates Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Primm Valley Golf Club, and Fallen Oak golf course. Its customers include premium gaming customers; leisure and wholesale travel customers; business travelers; and group customers, including conventions, trade associations, and small meetings. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp., together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts in Asia and the United States. It owns and operates The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, the Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao in Macao, the People's Republic of China; and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. The company also owns and operates The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino on the Las Vegas Strip; and the Sands Expo and Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Its integrated resorts feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, celebrity chef restaurants, and other amenities. Las Vegas Sands Corp. was founded in 1988 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited designs, develops, and operates integrated resorts. The company's Wynn Palace segment operates 424,000 square feet of casino space with 323 table games, 1,011 slot machines, private gaming salons, and sky casinos; a luxury hotel towers with 1,706 guest rooms, suites, and villas, including a health club, spa, salon, and pool; 14 food and beverage outlets; 106,000 square feet of retail space; 37,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and performance lake and floral art displays. Its Wynn Macau segment operates 252,000 square feet of casino space with 322 table games, 838 slot machines, private gaming salons, sky casinos, and a poker room; two luxury hotel with 1,010 guest rooms and suites that include two health clubs, two spas, a salon, and a pool; 12 food and beverage outlets; 59,000 square feet of retail space; 31,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and Chinese zodiac-inspired ceiling attractions. The company's Las Vegas Operations segment operates 192,000 square feet of casino space with 232 table games, 1,756 slot machines, private gaming salons, a sky casino, a poker room, and a race and sports book; two luxury hotel towers with a total of 4,748 guest rooms, suites, and villas, including swimming pools, private cabanas, two full service spas and salons, and a wedding chapel; 33 food and beverage outlets; 507,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; 160,000 square feet of retail space; and two theaters, three nightclubs and a beach club. Its Encore Boston Harbor segment operates 210,000 square feet of casino space with 161 table games, 2,833 slot machines, gaming areas, and a poker room; a hotel tower, including 671 guest rooms and suites; 16 food and beverage outlets and a nightclub; 8,000 square feet of retail space; 71,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and a waterfront park, floral displays, and water shuttle service. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. But Im sure you have some arcane, Taleb inspired, attention seeking answer as to what "gambling" really is.....a profession? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 So much for that "herd immunity in NY" thesis: PSA: YOU CAN NOT DERIVE THE HERD IMMUNITY THRESHOLD FROM EMPIRICAL OBSERVATIONS DURING UNPRECEDENTED NPI. Flu deaths in Australia are down 90% YoY. You can pretend that social distancing, hand washing, masks, school closures have no effect on transmissions of contagious respiratory viruses. But the evidence is overwhelming against your "opinion". Anyone who is using empirical observations to derive "herd immunity" should immediately be disregarded as a hack. BTW, for the "it's just the flu" crowd, the proper comparison is with flu deaths from March 2020 to March 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 And you keep doing your thing. Making things up. Crying wolf. Misrepresenting things. I mean we've seen plenty of people present herd immunity data for NYC, and here you come with Buffalo! LOL. Muscleman was "directionally" right! We have "herd immunity" by the end of August in the USA just like he said...wait not the USA but only in select states NY, GA, FL, ...wait, cases are up in Buffalo? I mean herd immunity in NYC, not NY state! Dur how did Dalal screw that up! And not GA of course, I was kidding about that one! And the positivity was > 10% in FL in the past week? Oh, ignore that claim about herd immunity in FL too--see, Dalal was wrong! Dur I just change the original arguments to make sure it looks like Dalal was wrong! And of course I predicted all of this bc I am Nostradamus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 So much for that "herd immunity in NY" thesis: PSA: YOU CAN NOT DERIVE THE HERD IMMUNITY THRESHOLD FROM EMPIRICAL OBSERVATIONS DURING UNPRECEDENTED NPI. Flu deaths in Australia are down 90% YoY. You can pretend that social distancing, hand washing, masks, school closures have no effect on transmissions of contagious respiratory viruses. But the evidence is overwhelming against your "opinion". Anyone who is using empirical observations to derive "herd immunity" should immediately be disregarded as a hack. BTW, for the "it's just the flu" crowd, the proper comparison is with flu deaths from March 2020 to March 2021. The burden of proof for herd immunity is very high. It is much easier to prove that herd immunity does not exist (all you need to see is a rise in cases beyond a certain threshold) than it is to prove herd immunity exists. Which is why it was so strange for muscleman to be so confident we'd have nationwide herd immunity by end of August. For example, Buffalo now shows that there is likely no statewide herd immunity in NY (even though muscleman claimed with high certainty that we'd have herd immunity nationwide in USA by end of August and then just revised that to a few states including NY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Now revisiting this at the end of August, the daily new cases are way down. As I said in late July here, I think herd immunity is there in certain states such as NY, NJ, GA, TX, FL. Especially GA which reopened school and no one seems to be wearing masks in school and the trend is still down. Clearly when he said "states like NY" here, he meant NYC! Oops: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 And you keep doing your thing. Making things up. Crying wolf. Misrepresenting things. I mean we've seen plenty of people present herd immunity data for NYC, and here you come with Buffalo! LOL. Muscleman was "directionally" right! We have "herd immunity" by the end of August in the USA just like he said...wait not the USA but only in select states NY, GA, FL, ...wait, cases are up in Buffalo? I mean herd immunity in NYC, not NY state! Dur how did Dalal screw that up! And not GA of course, I was kidding about that one! And the positivity was > 10% in FL in the past week? Oh, ignore that claim about herd immunity in FL too--see, Dalal was wrong! Dur I just change the original arguments to make sure it looks like Dalal was wrong! And of course I predicted all of this bc I am Nostradamus! LOL muscleman made money on his trade...good for him. He acknowledged market momentum and cases trending down and thought there was evidence of herd immunity. He actually committed to some sort of thesis! Imagine that? Then this guy, on the internet who habitually lies about everything, from being a doctor to predicting things, to actually not predicting things, to seeing great downside risk(as the market continues to rip his face off), comes in and goes "oh he was wrong about herd immunity bc of BUFFALO! I knew it"... strange behavior. I hope you made money on whatever trade you put on expressing "the other side" of what muscleman was betting on....but as usual I assume you didnt, and even if you claim you did, your dishonestly and lack of transparency would likely make it meaningless anyway. Thats your MO. Commit to nothing yourself but run around babbling and nitpicking anything and everything regarding people you disagree with. Then claim everyone else is wrong and you are right... Dalal Trump! indeed. A sorry narcissist with little hands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Wow, what a value investment site! We trade on “market momentum“ now and of course anyone who is right about where the market goes over a few weeks must have predicted it! Sure, his reasoning about herd immunity was wrong, but the S&P went up a little like he said—what are the odds of that happening? Just kidding, odds and probabilities are for nerds! What’s next, Technical Analysis posts? This just keeps getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 The burden of proof for herd immunity is very high. How anyone can plausibly claim any country has reached "herd immunity" until we better understand seasonality is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 The burden of proof for herd immunity is very high. How anyone can plausibly claim any country has reached "herd immunity" until we better understand seasonality is beyond me. Doesn't make sense to me. Neither do high confidence short term market predictions outside of a few rare scenarios. But what do I know. Maybe Graham was wrong and we can know with high confidence what kind of mood Mr. Market will be in tomorrow. About 1/8 people tested for covid in FL and TX were positive last week. Says all you need to know when it comes to "herd immunity" in these places. When you trust people who are wrong yet overconfident about a situation with more downside than upside, the results will not be pretty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Good grief. So muscleman is accurate directionally, and has made money predicting the virus decline and market rise....but because he didnt "nail the number" so to speak on the exact decline...he is a worthy candy to give grief..... Meanwhile, on the other side, we've had: -go to cash! -people buying stonks are stoopid! -US will be worse than Italy(while referring to Lombardy as "Italy") -covid was supposedly not here in January/February -FL, GA, TX, AZ will have worse death rates than NY -FL, GA, TX, AZ hospitals will be over capacity any day now -Just wait 2 more weeks for death rates to exceed NY!(for 2+ months) -Celebration of "OMG TX JUST CROSSED 2% FATALITY RATE. I WAS RIGHT!" -Now "US is worse than Italy!" while deliberately referring to Italy as a whole country instead of just Lombardy as was the case prior Interesting indeed...to each their own I guess. My only question to muscleman would be: You expected the case figures to decline more, which is still likely on the table. The market has risen, indeed. But you referenced several times, an "Asset bubble" forming. I have a hard time declaring whats occurred during the timeframe of your trade(maybe 4-6 weeks?) as an asset bubble running its course. So, what changed? Is it just the expectation of the Fed? Or is there more to it? Personally I think between where case numbers could be by Election Day, stimulus talks still not concluded, and a possible greater reopening in certain areas, there would be ample catalysts to keep blowing hot air into the bubble. There are many data points that I track that shows this is a bubble market. I am not going to lay out all of them but the TSLA and AAPL charts are two of them to look at. I try to be long term holders but I am flexible on what happened and adjusting my views. If the market goes up on a reasonable pace, it can last for two years and I'll try to hold for two years. I won't know that when I start a position, but after it runs for a while, and it looks crazy, I get scared and close my positions. "stimulus talks still not concluded, and a possible greater reopening in certain areas" That's true but everybody knows that and already bid up price because of that, so they are not real catalysts anymore. There is a saying that the market never discounts the same news twice. I am not optimistic about the market right now and I am ok to be punished by the market. But things could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Wow, what a value investment site! We trade on “market momentum“ now and of course anyone who is right about where the market goes over a few weeks must have predicted it! Sure, his reasoning about herd immunity was wrong, but the S&P went up a little like he said—what are the odds of that happening? Just kidding, odds and probabilities are for nerds! What’s next, Technical Analysis posts? This just keeps getting better. It's OK Dalal. You're a habitual liar so nothing you say matters...except, on an investment forum...."I hope you are invested in the market!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Now revisiting this at the end of August, the daily new cases are way down. As I said in late July here, I think herd immunity is there in certain states such as NY, NJ, GA, TX, FL. Especially GA which reopened school and no one seems to be wearing masks in school and the trend is still down. Clearly when he said "states like NY" here, he meant NYC! Oops: It did not reach the 20k level that I predicted in late July but the overall direction is going well. I already apologized in a prior post for missing the 20k mark. Also look at GA and FL and tell me why things are bad. I was wrong to say the entire US will have herd immunity by the end of August. After a closer look, I think WA and CA still need 100% more infections to get to herd immunity because they locked down too soon. I did not have time to look at every single state in the US so I only listed a few states here. But GA, FL has been reopen for a while and the trend continues down so that should be proof that herd immunity is there. Note that herd immunity doesn't mean 0 more cases. It just means the daily new cases number is under control because the virus is hard to spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it: I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone. Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... FWIW muscleman Thank you for apologizing about the 20k figure. Most people agreed a month ago that we had already peaked and cases would head downward. There is no sudden drop suggestive of herd immunity end of August. It’s a gradual decline. There is a clear epidemiological definition of herd immunity with a well defined threshold, we don’t need to debate that. FL and GA had double digit positivity rate last week (1/8 positive) which is not a good thing and shows herd immunity is not anywhere near at least according to an epidemiologist’s definition of the term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it: I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone. Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... FWIW muscleman Thank you for apologizing about the 20k figure. Most people agreed a month ago that we had already peaked and cases would head downward. There is no sudden drop suggestive of herd immunity end of August. It’s a gradual decline. There is a clear epidemiological definition of herd immunity with a well defined threshold, we don’t need to debate that. FL and GA had double digit positivity rate last week (1/8 positive) which is not a good thing and shows herd immunity is not anywhere near at least according to an epidemiologist’s definition of the term. No I disagree. When you have GA and FL reopen and the new cases continues to drop, that's the sign of herd immunity. "double digit positivity rate last week" proves nothing. If there is only one guy who has symptoms in GA yesterday, he got tested, and it is positive, that's OMG 100% positive! That's the end of the world isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Michael Burry https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1300128007240126464?s=21 Also: Didn't the CDC just say that only 6% of covid-19 deaths can be attributed to "only covid-19" and the other 94% had a comorbidity listed alongside covid-19 as a cause. Is this significant? To me it seems it is, but I'll let the more knowledgeable individuals say. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Yes its common sense but for a long time, and still continuing, there seems to be this belief by some, that cases popping up signal the end of humanity. University of Alabama just saw 1200 cases from young college kids partying. Life will go on I am sure. All of this hinges upon a great deal of Trump hatred acting as fuel and a love of "look at me, im sooo smart!", but the truth is that things are gradually getting back to normal and should continue to do so, despite outbreaks popping up here and there. Well, back to normal except for NY...even NJ today just set in motion indoor dining. But its important not to associate "MOAR CASES" with the end of civilization or economic ruin in perpetuity. Nor would it be wise to miss the forest for the trees with an obsession over the exact definition of "herd immunity", when the general gist, is that Florida, for instance, saw cases decline nearly 80% from 10K-ish to now 2k-ish in a couple months, with the economy more or less open. That is likely a sign the worst is behind them. You can make the same applications to other areas. And also really shouldn't be shocked about universities opening and having outbreaks, given the variety of factors converging, with people from all over the country settling into one location and likely doing a bit of socializing....the kids will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Read the Footnotes Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it: I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone. Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... FWIW muscleman Thank you for apologizing about the 20k figure. Most people agreed a month ago that we had already peaked and cases would head downward. There is no sudden drop suggestive of herd immunity end of August. It’s a gradual decline. There is a clear epidemiological definition of herd immunity with a well defined threshold, we don’t need to debate that. FL and GA had double digit positivity rate last week (1/8 positive) which is not a good thing and shows herd immunity is not anywhere near at least according to an epidemiologist’s definition of the term. No I disagree. When you have GA and FL reopen and the new cases continues to drop, that's the sign of herd immunity. "double digit positivity rate last week" proves nothing. If there is only one guy who has symptoms in GA yesterday, he got tested, and it is positive, that's OMG 100% positive! That's the end of the world isn't it? Muscleman, I commend you for bringing up the subject of your forecast and admitting that you were wrong. I am not sure your admission would go so far as "rubbing your nose in it" as Munger might say, but I suspect it is more than most would do. GA and FL numbers are among the most suspect in the country, so using them as an example is very concerning. Pretty much only GA, FL and the US Federal agencies have had whistle blowers accusing them of manipulation. The high positivity rates combined with a good reason to be suspicious or at least cautious when using GA or FL numbers leads me to believe that there is little to nothing that can be said about herd immunity based on current FL and GA numbers. Plus you draw a singular link between mortality and herd immunity when there are so many other potential causes of decreasing CFR, such as improving standard of care. Here's another alternative explanation . . . wearing masks reduces severity! Here's an article written for a non-scientific audience: https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/masks-breathing-in-less-coronavirus-means-you-get-less-sick Some people have congratulated you for "being right", but the question is were you right or were you just lucky? Compared to most fields, this question is far harder to answer in investment, or in your case as a momentum trader, speculation. Using mortality as an indicator for herd immunity does not match the definition of herd immunity. At best it is a lagging indicator and herd immunity addresses susceptibility of a population to infection not susceptibility to mortality due to infection. There are so many other potential explanations. All of this makes me suspect you are using some non-standard definition of herd immunity. Can you provide the definition of herd immunity that you are thinking of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 . Nor would it be wise to miss the forest for the trees with an obsession over the exact definition of "herd immunity", when the general gist, is that Florida, for instance, saw cases decline nearly 80% from 10K-ish to now 2k-ish in a couple months, with the economy more or less open. That is likely a sign the worst is behind them. There is only one definition of “herd immunity” and it is a simple mathematical calculation. Pretending that a decline in cases is due to your b.s. definition of herd immunity is wishful thinking. Herd immunity is calculated assuming the whole population is susceptible AND there are no other interventions. There is some population level immunity that is helping control cases in hard hit areas. But the low level of spread in places that haven’t been hard hit is pretty compelling evidence that partial immunity isn’t the sole or even predominant variable controlling spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 . Nor would it be wise to miss the forest for the trees with an obsession over the exact definition of "herd immunity", when the general gist, is that Florida, for instance, saw cases decline nearly 80% from 10K-ish to now 2k-ish in a couple months, with the economy more or less open. That is likely a sign the worst is behind them. There is only one definition of “herd immunity” and it is a simple mathematical calculation. Pretending that a decline in cases is due to your b.s. definition of herd immunity is wishful thinking. Herd immunity is calculated assuming the whole population is susceptible AND there are no other interventions. There is some population level immunity that is helping control cases in hard hit areas. But the low level of spread in places that haven’t been hard hit is pretty compelling evidence that partial immunity isn’t the sole or even predominant variable controlling spread. If you are investing with a thesis that we will reach herd immunity(which is what the guy laid out as his thesis), then you are free to wait til that date to start investing. I'd prefer to front run the trend. Which is what muscleman did. He was ambitious in predicting an exact date, so if one wants to nitpick, there is that. Same as if you are anticipating blowout earnings....invest ahead of it, or after? I mean get real dude. But otherwise, its just bizarre seeing him criticized by those who took the other side of the trade, or in most likely a case, didnt have the conviction to do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 . Nor would it be wise to miss the forest for the trees with an obsession over the exact definition of "herd immunity", when the general gist, is that Florida, for instance, saw cases decline nearly 80% from 10K-ish to now 2k-ish in a couple months, with the economy more or less open. That is likely a sign the worst is behind them. There is only one definition of “herd immunity” and it is a simple mathematical calculation. Pretending that a decline in cases is due to your b.s. definition of herd immunity is wishful thinking. Herd immunity is calculated assuming the whole population is susceptible AND there are no other interventions. There is some population level immunity that is helping control cases in hard hit areas. But the low level of spread in places that haven’t been hard hit is pretty compelling evidence that partial immunity isn’t the sole or even predominant variable controlling spread. You do realize who you are talking to right? If anyone wants to know why the U.S. is in the state that it’s in, you’ll get lots of insight from some of the minds in this forum. This is the type of thinking that resembles our leaders who have overridden people like Fauci. Very happy to have them as fellow investors though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 poster (jokingly): Tsla is back to $400, is it a buying opportunity? Mr. I always have to be right: actually, its at $500 LOL, yea. Thats who we're dealing with. Although "happy to have them as follow investors" implies he/she/they are investing again! What changed? Actually, who cares. You'll never get an honest or a straight answer from he/she/they anyway. Its a shame bud, but you really do have quite the chip on your shoulder. I know it was devastating not being named captain of the debate team back in high school. And not losing one's virginity until your mid 20s definitely must have been tough. The lack of Esports right now must also be a tough pill to swallow... but it's ok. Let go of the animosity. Breathe a little bit. Stop being so bitter. Keep your head up! I promise it will get better....well, maybe not anytime soon in NY(....actually! I mean NYC, so as not to be "corrected" later) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 poster (jokingly): Tsla is back to $400, is it a buying opportunity? Mr. I always have to be right: actually, its at $500 LOL, yea. Thats who we're dealing with. Although "happy to have them as follow investors" implies he/she/they are investing again! What changed? Actually, who cares. You'll never get an honest or a straight answer from he/she/they anyway. Its a shame bud, but you really do have quite the chip on your shoulder. I know it was devastating not being named captain of the debate team back in high school. And not losing one's virginity until your mid 20s definitely must have been tough. The lack of Esports right now must also be a tough pill to swallow... but it's ok. Let go of the animosity. Breathe a little bit. Stop being so bitter. Keep your head up! I promise it will get better....well, maybe not anytime soon in NY(....actually! I mean NYC, so as not to be "corrected" later) LOL! Your finest work yet. Mods, personal attacks like this must be allowed on this forum or he’ll get butthurt that you are infringing on his conservative rights to insult people! Mr. “I was such a cool jock in grade school and now I spend all of my time on my computer bragging about how cool i once was in skool and I troll on an investment forum...how times have changed”. You do you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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