Coronavirus

[Spekulatius]

I am not sure if Europe has peaked. France had 85k yesterday (per worldodometer) and that number has been rising. The Czech Republik, Belgium and France has reached their hospital capacity for ICU, so there is severe stress on the health care system a d other countries aren’t far behind (Netherlands , Switzerland etc).

 

I watch hospital utilization and admissions more than anything and three US has seen a remarkable increase in admissions from below 40k to more than 55k and it is going steadily upwards. We have seen already the hospital system in Midwestern states starting to get into capacity issues (the the posts about South Dakota) but this will get much more severe once we cross 60k admission, which were the former peaks from Covid wave #1 in March and #2 in July. This time, wave number 3 is broad based and cases are rising everywhere, not just the epicenter in the Midwest. So, I think it is likely that we will exceed former perks in hospital utilization forcing local shutdowns if the health care system which is going to create widespread knock on effects to everything else.

 

 

While it is true that tolerance is higher this time due to knowing much more about the disease and better clinical outcome it is also true that the increased complacency makes it harder to reverse trends in rising infection rates.

 

Also, while we have invested a lot in equipment, we still have the same restraints in personal that we had in March, since it really isn’t possible to get more doctors and nurses in hospitals quickly. because of all the safety precautions (gowning up, segregating COVID-19 patients in COVID-19 floors) treating COVID-19 patients require more manpower than regular patients which is the reason why hospitals will be shutting down with an influx of COVID-19 patients before capacity is reached.

 

All those quickly erected field hospitals are more or less useless, because there aren’t enough people around to operate them. Quite frankly, I think the administration should be activating army medical resources again, as they may be needed in due time, but it’s hard to predict where.

 

In any case I watch hospital admission more than anything else, as I think this is the key  indicator driving the decisions. MA (where I live) is on the cusp of its second wave and we have already a soft curfew from 10pm to 5AM and it is likely that those measures may be ratchet up more.

[Cardboard]

It is awesome Gregmal! GO Fighting Irish!

 

Before we only had to take our country back. Now we have to take our life back.

 

But, hey they were wearing masks so it should be no problem. No?

 

Cardboard

[Gregmal]

I'm still trying to figure out why fans rushing the field sets them aghast, but protesting in the streets is ok. How fans in the stadium is a no-no, but we can use the arenas for voting stations. How a campaign rally is a super spreader event, but in NY/Philly/DC, etc congregating and holding dance parties to celebrate their candidate winning the election is celebrated by the media.....There was also Justin Turner....the "covid stricken player" who celebrated with his team. "covid stricken" of course used to describe "absolutely symptom free, I feel great"....Strange times we live in.

[Xaston]

I'm still trying to figure out why fans rushing the field sets them aghast, but protesting in the streets is ok. How fans in the stadium is a no-no, but we can use the arenas for voting stations. How a campaign rally is a super spreader event, but in NY/Philly/DC, etc congregating and holding dance parties to celebrate their candidate winning the election is celebrated by the media.....There was also Justin Turner....the "covid stricken player" who celebrated with his team. "covid stricken" of course used to describe "absolutely symptom free, I feel great"....Strange times we live in.

 

Do you know why killing someone who is attacking you is more justified than killing an innocent person?  Do you know why its more dangerous to drive over the speed limit without wearing a seatbelt than with one?

[Gregmal]

I'm still trying to figure out why fans rushing the field sets them aghast, but protesting in the streets is ok. How fans in the stadium is a no-no, but we can use the arenas for voting stations. How a campaign rally is a super spreader event, but in NY/Philly/DC, etc congregating and holding dance parties to celebrate their candidate winning the election is celebrated by the media.....There was also Justin Turner....the "covid stricken player" who celebrated with his team. "covid stricken" of course used to describe "absolutely symptom free, I feel great"....Strange times we live in.

 

Do you know why killing someone who is attacking you is more justified than killing an innocent person?  Do you know why its more dangerous to drive over the speed limit without wearing a seatbelt than with one?

 

I do, but I dont see the ties any of that has to the logical inconsistency in the above mentioned behaviors. For instance just yesterday, Chuck Schumer was partying in the streets maskless. And it was celebrated by everyone and the part where he was massless largely ignored...

 

People have just kind of lost it with this and the media is a big part of the problem. Even the other day, my wife says to me, "did you notice the kids had runny noses all week?" and I was like yea. And she says "now my nose is runny, do you think we should be concerned?", I said, well how do you feel? To which she replies "fine". And I explain to her politely but in my head am thinking...."WTF. Every year maybe 2-3 times a fall/winter(at least since having kids) stuff like this goes around. Seasonal allergies/common cold/flu, etc....normal part of life. Now, the exact same things happen and we're all ridden with paranoia. On top of this, if these are your symptoms, and it turns out to be covid...who cares? You feel fine or at least consistent with how you normally do during this stretch of the seasons, you might have minor discomfort....otherwise, WTF is the point of all this negative energy, restriction, and paranoia....and if anything more serious comes about, well you deal with it accordingly. But the degree to which people are mentally impairing themselves over this is downright insane.

[Cardboard]

Democrats celebrating their coup and super-spreading the virus is a case of killing someone who is attacking you?

 

I am confused...

 

Cardboard

[DooDiligence]

I'm really looking forward to the new, politics free, CoBF.

 

Stay confused, you'd be impossible to recognize otherwise.

[ukvalueinvestment]

I'm still trying to figure out why fans rushing the field sets them aghast, but protesting in the streets is ok. How fans in the stadium is a no-no, but we can use the arenas for voting stations. How a campaign rally is a super spreader event, but in NY/Philly/DC, etc congregating and holding dance parties to celebrate their candidate winning the election is celebrated by the media.....There was also Justin Turner....the "covid stricken player" who celebrated with his team. "covid stricken" of course used to describe "absolutely symptom free, I feel great"....Strange times we live in.

 

Do you know why killing someone who is attacking you is more justified than killing an innocent person?  Do you know why its more dangerous to drive over the speed limit without wearing a seatbelt than with one?

 

I do, but I dont see the ties any of that has to the logical inconsistency in the above mentioned behaviors. For instance just yesterday, Chuck Schumer was partying in the streets maskless. And it was celebrated by everyone and the part where he was massless largely ignored...

 

People have just kind of lost it with this and the media is a big part of the problem. Even the other day, my wife says to me, "did you notice the kids had runny noses all week?" and I was like yea. And she says "now my nose is runny, do you think we should be concerned?", I said, well how do you feel? To which she replies "fine". And I explain to her politely but in my head am thinking...."WTF. Every year maybe 2-3 times a fall/winter(at least since having kids) stuff like this goes around. Seasonal allergies/common cold/flu, etc....normal part of life. Now, the exact same things happen and we're all ridden with paranoia. On top of this, if these are your symptoms, and it turns out to be covid...who cares? You feel fine or at least consistent with how you normally do during this stretch of the seasons, you might have minor discomfort....otherwise, WTF is the point of all this negative energy, restriction, and paranoia....and if anything more serious comes about, well you deal with it accordingly. But the degree to which people are mentally impairing themselves over this is downright insane.

 

 

Errrr.... remind me who it is that's mentally impairing themself?

 

[Gregmal]

I'm still trying to figure out why fans rushing the field sets them aghast, but protesting in the streets is ok. How fans in the stadium is a no-no, but we can use the arenas for voting stations. How a campaign rally is a super spreader event, but in NY/Philly/DC, etc congregating and holding dance parties to celebrate their candidate winning the election is celebrated by the media.....There was also Justin Turner....the "covid stricken player" who celebrated with his team. "covid stricken" of course used to describe "absolutely symptom free, I feel great"....Strange times we live in.

 

Do you know why killing someone who is attacking you is more justified than killing an innocent person?  Do you know why its more dangerous to drive over the speed limit without wearing a seatbelt than with one?

 

I do, but I dont see the ties any of that has to the logical inconsistency in the above mentioned behaviors. For instance just yesterday, Chuck Schumer was partying in the streets maskless. And it was celebrated by everyone and the part where he was massless largely ignored...

 

People have just kind of lost it with this and the media is a big part of the problem. Even the other day, my wife says to me, "did you notice the kids had runny noses all week?" and I was like yea. And she says "now my nose is runny, do you think we should be concerned?", I said, well how do you feel? To which she replies "fine". And I explain to her politely but in my head am thinking...."WTF. Every year maybe 2-3 times a fall/winter(at least since having kids) stuff like this goes around. Seasonal allergies/common cold/flu, etc....normal part of life. Now, the exact same things happen and we're all ridden with paranoia. On top of this, if these are your symptoms, and it turns out to be covid...who cares? You feel fine or at least consistent with how you normally do during this stretch of the seasons, you might have minor discomfort....otherwise, WTF is the point of all this negative energy, restriction, and paranoia....and if anything more serious comes about, well you deal with it accordingly. But the degree to which people are mentally impairing themselves over this is downright insane.

 

 

Errrr.... remind me who it is that's mentally impairing themself?

 

For one, the people who are afraid to do anything.The ones ascribing superpowers and human traits to "the virus". The ones living in fear...

[John Hjorth]

Democrats celebrating their coup and super-spreading the virus is a case of killing someone who is attacking you?

 

I am confused...

 

Cardboard

I'm really looking forward to the new, politics free, CoBF.

 

Stay confused, you'd be impossible to recognize otherwise.

 

This is great CoBF talk!

[DooDiligence]

Democrats celebrating their coup and super-spreading the virus is a case of killing someone who is attacking you?

 

I am confused...

 

Cardboard

I'm really looking forward to the new, politics free, CoBF.

 

Stay confused, you'd be impossible to recognize otherwise.

 

This is great CoBF talk!

 

it'd be nice to be able to browse through intelligent conversations without hearing a bunch of bullshit sniping for a change.

 

The antagonistic ignorance always comes from the same quarters.

I for one am sick of it & hope the admins clamp down hard soon.

[samwise]

Mattee and Spek,

 

Yes I agree that people’s tolerance for other peoples deaths is much higher now. A lot of people want that nothing be done, either because nothing can be done, or because the cost is too high.

 

Looking at statewide data, I had some thoughts, shared below.

https://healthdata.gov/sites/default/files/reported_hospital_utilization_20201107_2134.csv

 

It seems ICU utilization is higher than hospital bed utilization. E.g SD has 20% bed utilization and 50% ICU utilization by COVID patients. So the limit will probably be hit by ICU capacity first. The 50% utilization in SD has had no effect on news flow there, on the political scene etc. So perhaps the next level to watch is when ICU capacity hits 100% and death panels are set up to decide who lives. If people accept that as inevitable then there probably isn’t any new lockdown happening ever. That was the redline that got crossed in Italy, which caused every western country to suddenly take this seriously.

 

Besides the dakotas, most places have 20% ICU utilization by COVID. So we need 5x the cases from 3-4 weeks ago to hit that. If that level was roughly 50k cases, then we need to hit 250k cases. But of course people stay in the ICU for a while, so perhaps the number will be lower.

 

When do we hit 250k? We are at about 100k and doubling in a month. So this could happen in less than 2 months. But previous waves have turned and never followed the exponential path, so perhaps the same will happen again.

 

So overall it seems the risk of a new lockdown exists, but needs to cross a few hurdles. Cases would need to keep increasing, whereas previous waves have all crested. The next requirement is for the population to actually reject the inevitability of other people’s deaths.  Then if there is a lockdown it will probably be more targeted. And market reaction will also separate the companies most affected.

 

The biggest market risk might be the length of the recession caused by previous lockdowns and people avoiding socializing, rather than any new lockdowns.

 

Then the tolerance thresholds might change on Jan 20th. But I am not sure if anything changes, as I have been told that the power for healthcare is with states and nothing is changing there.

 

P.S. I am only trying to figure out what will happen, not what should happen. That is a conversation to be had in your local political scene.

[Gregmal]

I think thats all useful, and in respect to the market, think this time is very different from March 2020 due to greater certainly all around. Stimulus and low rates will be there. Shutdowns will be area specific, however companies can also choose to close shop for a bit. But in March people had no clue about a vaccine and were woefully ill informed about what the true fatality rate was. Now? Even if you effectively shut everything down for a month or two, the hit that brings to certain spaces will be there, but it gets you through the season, its effectively a one off. A vaccines should be here in a few months. Even draconian Fauci has stated your "return to normal" could be "as late as" late 2020 or early 2021. In the scheme of an earning multiple or valuation, a couple quarters is insignificant. The data points of relevance that make it a little messy of course, is that valuations are pretty rich right now. But overall this time is totally different all around than March/April. That was a once in a generation opportunity.

[StubbleJumper]

Besides the dakotas, most places have 20% ICU utilization by COVID. So we need 5x the cases from 3-4 weeks ago to hit that. If that level was roughly 50k cases, then we need to hit 250k cases. But of course people stay in the ICU for a while, so perhaps the number will be lower.

 

When do we hit 250k? We are at about 100k and doubling in a month. So this could happen in less than 2 months. But previous waves have turned and never followed the exponential path, so perhaps the same will happen again.

 

As of today, the US is at 9.8 million official covid cases.  If you believe that it would take, say, 45 days to hit 250k new cases per day, that would likely imply about 45 x 180k/day cases = ~8 million additional official cases between now and Christmas.  That would be a total of about 18 million official cases.  If there are 18 million official cases, how many true cases will the US have had?  Is it 10-to-1?  How about 8-to-1?  Something else?  At a certain point, a considerable portion of the US will have already had covid and the R0 will drop by virtue of running out of potential carriers.  If you believe that R0 will be pushed below 1 once ~60% of the population has already been infected, you would probably be pretty close to the finish line when you see 18 million official cases reported in the US.

 

What is interesting is to look at some of the countries with the most official cases per million population.  Belgium and the Czech Republic are interesting because they are both at about 40k official cases per million.  So in reality is that 300k or 400k actual cases per million if you believe in a 10-to-1 or 8-to-1 ratio?  In principle, herd immunity might begin at a 60% infection rate, or about 600k/million.  Will the virus soon begin to run out of new people to infect in those two countries?  We will probably have a pretty good idea around Christmas time about whether they are heading to herd immunity.  The US is slightly behind those countries, with 31k official cases per million, so it's worth carefully watching the countries who are "leading" this race.

 

 

Then the tolerance thresholds might change on Jan 20th. But I am not sure if anything changes, as I have been told that the power for healthcare is with states and nothing is changing there.

 

P.S. I am only trying to figure out what will happen, not what should happen. That is a conversation to be had in your local political scene.

 

I would say that on January 20, it will become pretty apparent what levers are truly available to the federal government.  My guess is that it will be business as usual, but the new administration will at least say the "right" things and do the "right" things which will make some people happy.  But, in terms of concrete new measures....

 

 

SJ

[Cigarbutt]

I am trying to figure out the levels at which the rising case count starts to threaten the economy again.

So the USA had about 1200 deaths per day in early November (just eyeballing the charts). Assuming a month lag, this came from about 60k cases in early October. That’s about 2%. Cases are now doubled, so we should expect 2400 deaths per day in a month. Is that a valid expectation?

Since this caseload is very widespread and skewed to younger people, it is not overwhelming any health systems yet. What number of cases would threaten the health system? At what caseload do elective procedures get cancelled, and where do further policies to control the spread become necessary ?

There are anecdotal reports in various areas suggesting that capacity is being tested.

Here are some aspects to feed the thought process:

-The proportion of Covid patients in hospitals (non-ICU to ICU) is typically 3:1 which suggests that ICU capacity would be hit first.

-The dynamics are different for the typical Canadian vs US hospitals as CDN hospitals tend to run close to, at or even above capacity. In the US, there is typically significant excess capacity.

-There are regional variations. Stats at the state or province level will give you a general idea but may not reflect relatively unusual activity in some sub-regions.

-Hospital capacity is a dynamic concept as activity level may be modulated vs circumstances and case load can be transferred to some degree.

-A key aspect is how high the number of cases will go during this third part of the wave (see below). Today's positive rate in the US is 11.6% (!) with a clearly rising trend. This part of the spread affects younger cohorts, treatment outcomes have improved and the spread is more widespread and diffuse (more states, urban and rural) but, from reliable sources, US hospitalization levels have reached 57k, which is getting close to the two previous peaks.

 

 

There is a suggestion that data may not circulate efficiently:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/30/929239481/internal-documents-reveal-covid-19-hospitalization-data-the-government-keeps-hid

 

It's hard to connect the virus evolution with economic or stock market movements, especially short term but i've come to see this episode through the lens used for the Tylenol recall that JNJ had in the 80s. JNJ used an unusually transparent process and had organized a relatively aggressive and costly recall. One key aspect of the potential threat to the brand was the event itself. Another one, which, in the end had more impact, was the way JNJ handled the crisis. Over time, JNJ's brand came out stronger.

 

i agree with SJ that this is some kind of race, but perhaps not one that should be won.

[muscleman]

PFZ-BNTX vaccine data looks good. Seeking approval by end of November.

A few days ago folks in this thread asked me where is the syrup. Here you go.

 

I was a newbie investor during the 2011 EU crisis and was quite bearish. I lost 45% that year shorting a bunch of crap. Later I learned that the market always looks ahead 2-3 quarters. It is important to keep that in mind.

[DocSnowball]

PFZ-BNTX vaccine data looks good. Seeking approval by end of November.

A few days ago folks in this thread asked me where is the syrup. Here you go.

 

I was a newbie investor during the 2011 EU crisis and was quite bearish. I lost 45% that year shorting a bunch of crap. Later I learned that the market always looks ahead 2-3 quarters. It is important to keep that in mind.

 

Agree so far the interim news brief looks better than expected at 90% efficacy. Good news is so welcome in 2020!

[muscleman]

PFZ-BNTX vaccine data looks good. Seeking approval by end of November.

A few days ago folks in this thread asked me where is the syrup. Here you go.

 

I was a newbie investor during the 2011 EU crisis and was quite bearish. I lost 45% that year shorting a bunch of crap. Later I learned that the market always looks ahead 2-3 quarters. It is important to keep that in mind.

 

Agree so far the interim news brief looks better than expected at 90% efficacy. Good news is so welcome in 2020!

 

Yep. The market is at an interesting juncture. I am expecting a pull back, and it can be potentially sharp.

 

[mattee2264]

 

muscleman what is your pullback thesis? I remember from earlier in the thread that you think good news re the virus is bad news for the stock market.

[cwericb]

"Democrats celebrating their coup and super-spreading the virus is a case of killing someone who is attacking you?

 

I am confused..."

 

Xxxxxxxxx

 

 

I'm really looking forward to the new, politics free, CoBF.

 

Stay confused, you'd be impossible to recognize otherwise.

 

DooDiligence - Nominated for best put down for 2020!! :)

[muscleman]

 

muscleman what is your pullback thesis? I remember from earlier in the thread that you think good news re the virus is bad news for the stock market.

 

Markets move on liquidity. If liquidity tightens up, markets will decline, which is something likely to happen when the vaccine comes out.

I combine fundamentals with technicals. Flipping through thousands of charts per week gives me a good feel of where the river wants to flow.

[Guest cherzeca]

 

muscleman what is your pullback thesis? I remember from earlier in the thread that you think good news re the virus is bad news for the stock market.

 

Markets move on liquidity. If liquidity tightens up, markets will decline, which is something likely to happen when the vaccine comes out.

I combine fundamentals with technicals. Flipping through thousands of charts per week gives me a good feel of where the river wants to flow.

 

I dont see the relationship you posit between liquidity going down and vaccine coming out.  I agree that liquidity is important, and using the old term "animal spirits" I would think we would have more demand for equities, less demand for money once the vaccination phase commences. 

[muscleman]

 

muscleman what is your pullback thesis? I remember from earlier in the thread that you think good news re the virus is bad news for the stock market.

 

Markets move on liquidity. If liquidity tightens up, markets will decline, which is something likely to happen when the vaccine comes out.

I combine fundamentals with technicals. Flipping through thousands of charts per week gives me a good feel of where the river wants to flow.

 

I dont see the relationship you posit between liquidity going down and vaccine coming out.  I agree that liquidity is important, and using the old term "animal spirits" I would think we would have more demand for equities, less demand for money once the vaccination phase commences.

 

A potential FED withdraw from QE has far bigger liquidity impacts than animal spirits. Something to watch out for.

When someone has been smoking heroin for 8 months and suddenly stop, he will have a big problem and need time to get used to the new normal without heroin.

 

[Viking]

The Fed will remain on their current path until unemployment is much, much lower. The vaccine will be the first step in a long, long road back. My guess is Fed does not change much until 2022 and only then if the economy is on fire.

[Simba]

 

muscleman what is your pullback thesis? I remember from earlier in the thread that you think good news re the virus is bad news for the stock market.

 

Markets move on liquidity. If liquidity tightens up, markets will decline, which is something likely to happen when the vaccine comes out.

I combine fundamentals with technicals. Flipping through thousands of charts per week gives me a good feel of where the river wants to flow.

 

Thousands of charts? Wow! What chart packs are you looking at?