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spartansaver

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News on the vaccine front continues to get better. Every month moving forward the news should get better... more companies with approved options. Leading to more good news as bottle necks are removed and ‘estimated production capacity’ gets revised upwards. Amazing what can happen when government/business/people interests get aligned and money is readily available :-)

 

We have two ‘stars’ already approved; they just can’t produce enough doses for the globe:

1.) Pfizer-BioNTech

2.) Moderna

 

Looks like we will (March?) be able to add one more to the approved list (North America/Europe):

3.) Oxford/AstraZeneca

 

- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/30/world/europe/uk-covid-19-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

...Britain on Wednesday became the first country to give emergency authorization to the coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, clearing the path for a cheap and easy-to-store shot that much of the world will rely on to help end the pandemic.

 

....Britain’s two moves on Wednesday — authorizing an easy-to-make, easy-to-deliver vaccine, and delaying second vaccine doses — offered one blueprint for how to ramp up inoculation campaigns that have so far been entangled in logistical and manufacturing problems there and in much of the West.

 

The Oxford-AstraZeneca shot is poised to become the world’s dominant form of inoculation. At $3 to $4 a dose, it is a fraction of the cost of some other vaccines. And it can be shipped and stored in normal refrigerators for six months, rather than in the ultracold freezers required by its rivals, making it easier to administer to people in poorer and harder-to-reach areas.

 

....Instead of administering the two vaccine shots within a month as was originally planned, clinicians in Britain will wait as long as 12 weeks to give people second doses, the government said.

 

Clinical trials of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine had already subjected participants to delayed second doses, with most participants in the British trial being given the two doses at least nine weeks apart. British regulators said on Wednesday that the first dose of the vaccine had 70 percent efficacy in protecting against Covid-19 in the period between that shot taking effect and a second shot being administered, though those figures held for a limited subset of trial participants and have not been published.

 

...And Argentina quickly followed Britain in authorizing the Oxford-AstraZeneca shot, with India expected to do the same soon.

 

————————————-

Two other vaccine’s are also at the ‘in arm’ stage. The more options available the better.

 

4.) China

5.) Russia

 

...China said clinical trial results showed high efficacy for one of its vaccine candidates, an announcement that hastened the global rollout of hundreds of millions of doses of Chinese vaccines but was short on crucial details.

 

Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, long criticized for being introduced prematurely, also began use this week in Argentina, Belarus, Hungary and Serbia, the first other countries to begin injecting it en masse.

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What is interesting is that supposedly the Moderna vaccine was developed within 48 hours of getting the sequence, back in JANUARY! This aligns with the idea that China and others also had a vaccine quite early. So it really is true when people foot the blame on government and regulation/bureaucrats. We had the answer before a single person died of this...yet nothing was done.

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What is interesting is that supposedly the Moderna vaccine was developed within 48 hours of getting the sequence, back in JANUARY! This aligns with the idea that China and others also had a vaccine quite early. So it really is true when people foot the blame on government and regulation/bureaucrats. We had the answer before a single person died of this...yet nothing was done.

 

That's wild. Where did you get that information?

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What is interesting is that supposedly the Moderna vaccine was developed within 48 hours of getting the sequence, back in JANUARY! This aligns with the idea that China and others also had a vaccine quite early. So it really is true when people foot the blame on government and regulation/bureaucrats. We had the answer before a single person died of this...yet nothing was done.

 

That's wild. Where did you get that information?

 

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/360574

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Chicago vaccination data by age:

Lot more below 40 years are vaccinated than above 60!

https://data.cityofchicago.org/Health-Human-Services/COVID-19-Vaccine-Doses-by-Age-Group-1st-Dose/7rmz-icie

The distribution plan in IL and Chicago is similar to what is being done elsewhere. For the initial week, "they" chose to prioritize regional "hub" hospitals where prevalence has been high (the candidates there include frontline healthcare workers). Early distribution plans also include nursing homes (residents and at-risk staff) and first-line responders. Over time, it can be assumed that the age profile will skew higher.

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Chicago vaccination data by age:

Lot more below 40 years are vaccinated than above 60!

https://data.cityofchicago.org/Health-Human-Services/COVID-19-Vaccine-Doses-by-Age-Group-1st-Dose/7rmz-icie

The distribution plan in IL and Chicago is similar to what is being done elsewhere. For the initial week, "they" chose to prioritize regional "hub" hospitals where prevalence has been high (the candidates there include frontline healthcare workers). Early distribution plans also include nursing homes (residents and at-risk staff) and first-line responders. Over time, it can be assumed that the age profile will skew higher.

 

PLease see 12/30 data.  It is difficult to explain just by health care workers with this data.  There are more 18-29 than 50+.  I suppose many employees in hospital are above 50+ and not many below 29.

 

Date 12/30/2020

Age 18-29 807

Age 30-39 818

Age 40-49 496

Age 50-59 431

Age 60-69 253

Age 70-79   51

Age 80+       2

 

431+253+51+2= 737 (50+ years)

 

Not that many Nursing homes - I took 80+ as nursing home:

 

Date Age 80+

12/15/2020 0

12/16/2020 0

12/17/2020 3

12/18/2020 5

12/19/2020 2

12/20/2020 1

12/21/2020 5

12/22/2020 10

12/23/2020 5

12/24/2020 6

12/25/2020 0

12/26/2020 0

12/27/2020 0

12/28/2020 2

12/29/2020 27

12/30/2020 2

Total 68

 

 

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Chicago vaccination data by age:

Lot more below 40 years are vaccinated than above 60!

https://data.cityofchicago.org/Health-Human-Services/COVID-19-Vaccine-Doses-by-Age-Group-1st-Dose/7rmz-icie

The distribution plan in IL and Chicago is similar to what is being done elsewhere. For the initial week, "they" chose to prioritize regional "hub" hospitals where prevalence has been high (the candidates there include frontline healthcare workers). Early distribution plans also include nursing homes (residents and at-risk staff) and first-line responders. Over time, it can be assumed that the age profile will skew higher.

 

Same here. Frontline workers first without age consideration.

Ungerechtigkeit muss sein, sonst kommt man zu keinem Ende.

Karl Krauss

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^The logistics are being defined as 'we' go and there could be many explanations for the developing age distribution.

The average age of healthcare workers is about 40 and about a third are 50+, at large.

Anecdotal experience suggests that frontline workers in "busy" areas tend to be younger. It seems also the age profile has gotten younger during the pandemic in "hot" areas due to turnover according to risk factors.

 

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January and February should see lots of new news regarding the vaccines. Hopefully we get good news from J&J and their trial.

 

For those vaccines who are approved the question is how much can be produced and how fast. We should see lots of upwards revisions to supply numbers as highly motivated governments move to support incremental production. The latest example is Europe and BioNTech. Very encouraging.

 

——————————

BioNTech founders warn of COVID-19 vaccine supply gaps

- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/article-biontech-founders-warn-of-covid-19-vaccine-supply-gaps/

 

The United States ordered 600 million doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer shot in July, while the EU waited until November to place an order half that size.

 

After publication of the interview, BioNTech said it was in talks with Brussels on boosting output

 

“We are in productive discussions with the European Commission on how to make more of our vaccine in Europe, for Europe,” a spokeswoman said.

 

NEW PRODUCTION

BioNTech hopes to launch a new production line in Marburg, Germany, ahead of schedule in February, with the potential to produce 250 million doses in the first half of 2021, said Sahin.

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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ivermectin-tests-show-cheap-drug-may-reduce-covid-19-death-toll-zb27lx8wt

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3122335/

What is the risk benefit for a drug that is used as given in above article "Ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) to humans is used to control onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis. Recent field studies have shown an added killing effect of ivermectin MDA against malaria vectors."

 

And costs few dollars a tablet.

 

Yes large studies and more studies are welcome but that takes time but right now:

 

https://nypost.com/2021/01/03/califonia-funeral-homes-fill-up-as-covid-19-surges/

California funeral homes run out of space as COVID-19 rages

 

Only for discussion.  Not suggesting any treatment.  Please consult your physician for any treatment.  Particularly medicines have contraindications and only your doctor can determine that

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-mayor-eric-garcetti-on-face-the-nation-january-3-2021/

Transcript: Mayor Eric Garcetti on "Face the Nation," January 3, 2021

 

MAYOR GARCETTI: No. We have great compliance. We look at our data. People are moving less. I was talking to the head of the Red Cross out here who just moved from another state. She was blown away by how many people wear masks compared to where she was coming from. This is something now that really is spreading in the home. And once you get past that tipping point, and it's a message for all of America, we might not all have the same density as Los Angeles. But what's happening in Los Angeles can and will be coming to many communities across America. If you get two households together for Christmas, if you went to a New Year's gathering- even if it was people you know and love so you thought it was OK. That's when this virus exploits that weakness and is going far. L.A. was the first place to close places down that- where people meet, have a mask mandate, offer widespread testing to folks with or without symptoms, surge into our senior and skilled nursing facilities--

 

MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah.

 

MAYOR GARCETTI: --where we arrested most of the deaths there. We've done everything right. But this virus doesn't care what you've done in the past, only what you're doing today.

 

.............................................

 

I hope there was a follow up question on what he means by "We've done everything right" considering:

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/care-now-has-to-be-rationed-los-angeles-covid-19-spike-is-crushing-hospitals/ar-BB1cuRgj

Care now has to be rationed': Los Angeles COVID-19 spike is crushing hospitals

 

https://deadline.com/2021/01/los-angeles-covid-19-records-1000-deaths-in-6-days-1234665299/

Los Angeles Covid-19 Update: County Records 1,000 Deaths In Just 6 Days; Virus Now Claiming More Lives Daily Than All Other Causes Combined

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California has been the most abusive and restrictive and yet leads the way in terms of being a total disaster from top to bottom. At least Nancy can get her hair done and Mr. Newsome and pals can do their fundraisers. The 49ers however, can not even play in an empty stadium. Common folks...stay at home chumps!

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If backed up by science, this could be another game changer :-)

 

Moderna CEO says COVID-19 vaccine protection may last years

- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-last-years-moderna-ceo/

 

Moderna's CEO said the company's new COVID-19 vaccine may prevent infection for years.

 

While speaking at a virtual event by Oddo BHF, a financial service group, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said the once-believed "nightmare scenario" that the vaccine won't work is now out the window. "We believe there will be protection potentially for a couple of years

 

He explained that the "antibody decay generated by the vaccine in humans goes down very slowly," Reuters reports.

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CDC now saying we could see a huge covid surge as a result fo the "riots". After nearly a year of hearing how "riots" were not believed to be causing any spread....what will they come up with next?

 

I don’t think a few thousand people at riots mostly outdoors are going to do much a difference. What does a difference is what is going in people homes firmest (family/household mixing). We are seeing now the fallout from the Christmas and New Years parties which hopefully will wear off in a few weeks. Same story in other countries as well.

 

The most important thing the administration can do is getting the vaccine rolled out as quickly as possible. There should be no amount of $ and effort spared to get it done. Even if it costs $1000 to get one person vaccinated, that would be only $340B for the entire US population, not much compared to the $900B aid packages.

 

Foremost the vaccination directly fight the root cause, the aid packages just the symptoms.

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Ramping up has been difficult and there's more to come but there are many reasons to be optimistic about the vaccines.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-best-evidence-for-how-to-overcome-covid-vaccine-fears1/

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/vaccine-hesitancy-in-rural-america/

TL;DR version: There are hard-liners but there is a lot of simple hesitancy. This may be overcome with local leaders (as simple as having a nurse in the family) and by avoiding unnecessary confrontation. i think an effective vaccine rollout will help business at gyms and the related alternative supplements.

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I think the easiest way to encourage vaccinations is to provide checks to people who get their vaccinations done. At least that will ensure there is an economic benefit to further rounds of handouts in terms of getting us quicker back to normal. Probably not particularly correct. But at least it will allow people to see the "What's in it for me?" and it compensates them partly for any risks they think they are running. Basically the same principle of paying college kids to do experimental drug trials.

 

On a related point. What do people make of all the mutant variants? As well as the UK and South African ones another one has been identified in Japan. And they all seem to be more contagious prompting a tightening of restrictions. And we could be in for a good few months before the vaccinations and warmer weather start to turn the tide.

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