Coronavirus

[Spekulatius]

Gregmal banned? Timeout maybe, but the board is poorer without him. He needs to come back!

[Cigarbutt]

...

Regarding discussion on politics...I think we are all adults who can read data and make up our own minds.  After all value investing or science many times is disagreeing with the majority.  However, to say politics has no role in investing is absurd.

You can only do that if one can read their own data and make up their minds and politics is real part of investing.

i think it's not the 'political' part which is the problem per se, it's the correlated tribal thinking which may contaminate underlying thought processes and ruin the quality of exchanges.

Will you take the vaccine?

Based on data and logical conclusions from data, vaccines have been, overall, a significant benefit. i think it's quite sad that polio has not been eradicated in many countries because of false beliefs and unsubstantiated pre-conceived ideas.

FWIW, in my province, there is almost a natural experiment going on. An absolute sequential priority rule has been used to inoculate vaccines in older people's homes. The most at-risk homes are essentially 100% covered. This is relatively anecdotal but outcomes appear incredibly strong. The vaccines are well tolerated (did you notice that investigations about the Norway worry that you posted has been mostly put to rest) and the new cases are going towards zero very rapidly. To compare, the next 'intermediate' homes which are next in line for vaccines, still report truly awful numbers.

Also, have you noticed that the Chicago vaccination numbers are showing a gradually shifting age composition now skewing to the older cohorts? This is developing (like in many places) and there is some delay with reporting (like the CDC discussion we had before) which means that the true picture (older age profile showing later) shows with some delay.

[Castanza]

Gregmal banned? Timeout maybe, but the board is poorer without him. He needs to come back!

 

+1

 

He covered a lot of companies and provided solid analysis.

 

PCYO, MSGS (E), AYR just to name a few.

[Spekulatius]

Gregmal banned? Timeout maybe, but the board is poorer without him. He needs to come back!

 

+1

 

He covered a lot of companies and provided solid analysis.

 

PCYO, MSGS (E), AYR just to name a few.

 

And of course all those SPAC’s. He also runs a big mouth sometimes (hence the ban), but you got to take the good with the bad.

[Investor20]

...

 

Regarding discussion on politics...I think we are all adults who can read data and make up our own minds.  After all value investing or science many times is disagreeing with the majority.  However, to say politics has no role in investing is absurd.

You can only do that if one can read their own data and make up their minds and politics is real part of investing.

 

i think it's not the 'political' part which is the problem per se, it's the correlated tribal thinking which may contaminate underlying thought processes and ruin the quality of exchanges.

Will you take the vaccine?

Based on data and logical conclusions from data, vaccines have been, overall, a significant benefit. i think it's quite sad that polio has not been eradicated in many countries because of false beliefs and unsubstantiated pre-conceived ideas.

FWIW, in my province, there is almost a natural experiment going on. An absolute sequential priority rule has been used to inoculate vaccines in older people's homes. The most at-risk homes are essentially 100% covered. This is relatively anecdotal but outcomes appear incredibly strong. The vaccines are well tolerated (did you notice that investigations about the Norway worry that you posted has been mostly put to rest) and the new cases are going towards zero very rapidly. To compare, the next 'intermediate' homes which are next in line for vaccines, still report truly awful numbers.

Also, have you noticed that the Chicago vaccination numbers are showing a gradually shifting age composition now skewing to the older cohorts? This is developing (like in many places) and there is some delay with reporting (like the CDC discussion we had before) which means that the true picture (older age profile showing later) shows with some delay.

 

Will I take vaccine?  Not right now.  I think the vaccine should be given first to older people.  Above 85 then above 75 age wise. The reason is it is shown to reduce symptoms and most vulnerable to symptoms of Covid are older people.

 

The vaccine has not been shown to stop transmission.  For the oxford vaccine

 

"Although efficacy was lower (58·9% [1·0 to 82·9]) against asymptomatic infection in the LD/SD cohort (and unfortunately only 3·8% [−72·4 to 46·3] in the SD/SD group)"

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32623-4/fulltext

 

It is the SD/SD dose, or standard dose that is approved.  Only 3.8% reduction in asymptomatic transmission.

 

Its not even tested for that for Pfizer or Moderna.

 

Covid-19 Vaccine Study on Preventing Transmission Is Stalled

Researchers seeking to assess whether Moderna’s shot can prevent person-to-person spread on college campuses say they couldn’t get federal funding

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-study-on-preventing-transmission-is-stalled-11609436842

 

The people here insist double blinded controlled studies to show HCQ+Zinc works in early stages for high risk patients.  That is giving HCQ+Zinc, to above 60+ in first few days of symptoms.  No RCT had been done for these conditions but many observational studies have been done under above conditions.

 

Epidemiologist At Yale Provides Testimony On Hydroxychloroquine For Treating COVID-19

"About studies of hydroxychloroquine early use in high-risk outpatients, every one of them, and there are now seven studies, has shown significant benefit: 636 outpatients in São Paulo, Brazil; 199 clinic patients in Marseille, France; 717 patients across a large HMO network in Brazil; 226 nursing-home patients in Marseille; 1,247 outpatients in New Jersey; 100 long-term care institution patients in Andorra (between France and Spain); and 7,892 patients across Saudi Arabia. All these studies pertain to the early treatment of high-risk outpatients—and all showed about 50 percent or greater reductions in hospitalization or death. "

https://www.collective-evolution.com/2020/12/14/epidemiologist-at-yale-provides-testimony-on-hydroxychloroquine-for-treating-covid-19/

 

But they say such observational studies are not acceptable. Only randomized placebo controlled studies are acceptable.  Lets use the same standard for Remdesivir and Vaccines.  Show me the data for transmission and mortality reduction.

 

Data is what matters.  Not name calling.  Who said it.  The underlying information matters.

 

In 2007 I was under great pressure from my colleagues, my friends, my siblings....to buy a house.  Many brought 500k to 800k houses in US North East.  I put my money in stock market.  The house prices of my friends didnt change even in nominal terms and stock market went up by 2.5 times.

 

Yes the pressure would be there.  Just by banning a couple of people it will go away is a fantasy.  Sometimes the pressure and these opinions whether you agree or disagree are still real in stock market - at least in short term.  For a while the home prices kept shooting up.  I remember people making fun of me - that I might have to live in a shed.

 

Yes, these opinions would be there, I dont like them is not a good way to look at it, IMO. One can only analyze for themselves and come to a decision.

 

My proposal would be to let a person have limited posts.  May be 1 or 2 a day so that they dont spam the forum.  Then only their best ideas are also posted.  They would also have to wait to post the next day giving a cooling down time. Just a thought.

 

Not suggesting any treatment.  Please consult your doctor for any treatment.  Only for discussion.

[Williams406]

I 2nd, 3rd, 4th, whatever the protest on Gregmal's ban. The board has less value be/c of his absence. Sanjeev, it's your board, but I just don't see this one.

[Libs]

I 2nd, 3rd, 4th, whatever the protest on Gregmal's ban. The board has less value be/c of his absence. Sanjeev, it's your board, but I just don't see this one.

 

Bring back Gregmal.

[JRM]

I 2nd, 3rd, 4th, whatever the protest on Gregmal's ban. The board has less value be/c of his absence. Sanjeev, it's your board, but I just don't see this one.

 

Bring back Gregmal.

 

Agreed. 

[Cigarbutt]

^My opinion has little or no value and can be safely ignored.

-----

Here's an interesting and reasonably critical piece on Dr. Fauci:

https://www.thedriftmag.com/the-case-against-fauci/

Some of the points are valid but benefit from hindsight. The public health medical leader in my province has also made mistakes and has appeared intermittently inconsistent. He also has been heavily criticized. What i understand is that he would often get up at night (insomnia) and looked awfully tired at times. The weight of the mission has been heavy and it gets lonely at the top.

How do you account for the fact also that some important players have inconsistent strengths (and weaknesses). Dr. Scott Atlas became a leading adviser, for a time, during this crisis. The MD has produced several editions of very helpful spine imaging books (very good quality on many levels). Still, when leading the public health question, he did not really rely on science and used mostly emotions and contaminated thinking to bring out worst among many.

-----

FWIW, i think consideration should be given to reinstate Gregmal as a contributor.

[no_free_lunch]

I don't like that politics showed up and disappeared all around the us election. We are "allowed" to talk politics when the moderator decides it's appropriate.  That itself is a huge political statement.

 

For now, I am out too.

 

Later y'all.

[wachtwoord]

I 2nd, 3rd, 4th, whatever the protest on Gregmal's ban. The board has less value be/c of his absence. Sanjeev, it's your board, but I just don't see this one.

 

Bring back Gregmal.

 

Agreed.

 

+1

[Viking]

Gregmal banned? Timeout maybe, but the board is poorer without him. He needs to come back!

 

I agree :-)

[Jurgis]

I 2nd, 3rd, 4th, whatever the protest on Gregmal's ban. The board has less value be/c of his absence. Sanjeev, it's your board, but I just don't see this one.

 

First of all, Gregmal is likely not banned.

 

Second of all, where were you all guys when great contributors like Schwab711 were forced to leave CoBF because of behavior of people like Gregmal who has justified rape multiple times on this site without any consequences.

 

These are great posts showing the attitude of people on CoBF: screw good contributors, but let's allow complete assholes post on the site and poison it to others. Shows pretty clearly where CoBF is headed.

 

Gregmal should have been banned long time ago. He's probably still not.

 

 

[LC]

I definitely missed that one. I didn't realize Schwab left, either. I always enjoyed reading his posts. Hopefully he returns.

[wachtwoord]

I 2nd, 3rd, 4th, whatever the protest on Gregmal's ban. The board has less value be/c of his absence. Sanjeev, it's your board, but I just don't see this one.

 

First of all, Gregmal is likely not banned.

 

Second of all, where were you all guys when great contributors like Schwab711 were forced to leave CoBF because of behavior of people like Gregmal who has justified rape multiple times on this site without any consequences.

 

These are great posts showing the attitude of people on CoBF: screw good contributors, but let's allow complete assholes post on the site and poison it to others. Shows pretty clearly where CoBF is headed.

 

Gregmal should have been banned long time ago. He's probably still not.

 

Just because you disagree with his ethics does not mean Greg is not a good contributor. He is one of the most valuable contributors of this forum.

 

Please explain though: How was Schwab forced to leave?

[LongHaul]

Initially I had respect for Twitter, etc who banned Trump from using their account. 

 

Then I was reading about Russia and the Putin protests and Navalny disagreed with Trumps ban because of the censorship and I quickly did a 180 on my views. 

No president should be censored by a media company because these companies should not be limiting freedom of speech.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russian-opposition-leader-navalny-slams-trump-ban-censorship-n1253679

 

 

I liked Gregmal's comments (overall) and Schwab's too.

 

Let me throw out this idea that may be more constructive. 

Note that I don't like the insults either but perhaps a monetary fine can be instituted.  Say $5.00 for a really bad insult or something like that. 

Incentives work!

 

 

 

Edit:  I refrain from voting because of a lack of knowledge on the history of what has transpired

[Parsad]

Initially I had respect for Twitter, etc who banned Trump from using their account. 

 

Then I was reading about Russia and the Putin protests and Navalny disagreed with Trumps ban because of the censorship and I quickly did a 180 on my views. 

No president should be censored by a media company because these companies should not be limiting freedom of speech.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russian-opposition-leader-navalny-slams-trump-ban-censorship-n1253679

 

I would vote to bring back Gregmal also.  I liked his comments (overall) and Schwab's too.

 

The marketplace of ideas where people can exchange information is more important than the occasional insult. 

Would Gregmal have been banned if he agreed with your politics?

 

 

Let me throw out this idea that may be more constructive. 

Note that I don't like the insults either but perhaps a monetary fine can be instituted.  Say $5.00 for a really bad insult or something like that. 

Incentives work!

 

Greg's not coming back until he learns to resist his urges.  Sure, his posts at times are good, but if his instinctive behavior is to stir trouble from time to time, and throw mud, that's not going to happen.  And that doesn't apply just to Greg, but to others as well...I don't care which side of the political fence you are on.  Learn to use Buffett's adage...if its borderline, don't do it...simple!  Cheers!

[Read the Footnotes]

I 2nd, 3rd, 4th, whatever the protest on Gregmal's ban. The board has less value be/c of his absence. Sanjeev, it's your board, but I just don't see this one.

 

Second of all, where were you all guys when great contributors like Schwab711 were forced to leave CoBF because of behavior of people like Gregmal who has justified rape multiple times on this site without any consequences.

 

...

 

Gregmal should have been banned long time ago. He's probably still not.

 

Just because you disagree with his ethics does not mean Greg is not a good contributor. He is one of the most valuable contributors of this forum.

 

Please explain though: How was Schwab forced to leave?

 

A couple of years ago just about every investment professional I knew and respected told me that they no longer read CoB&F. Each of them had one explanation, and it came down to members who:

 

1) Were abusive in their posts

2) Were frequently posting about politics

3) Posted low quality posts with great frequency.

 

Interestingly about 95% of the time it was the same two people that came up in the discussion. So it seems to me that for each jerk you keep, you might be losing dozens or even hundreds of respectful, thoughtful participants.

 

Here is "the lesson" from Henry Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson:

 

The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.

 

Applying Hazlitt's thoughts to this situation, we know what the world looks like with one or two members frequently posting low quality and abusive drivel that drives other people away, but we don't fully weight the alternative because it is less immediate and present.

 

In other words it's not so much what it is, but what it could be.

 

Personally, I would like it if Schwab711 and others chose to come back and if the quality of the discussion prompted them to do so.

[Read the Footnotes]

 

I would vote to bring back Gregmal also.  I liked his comments (overall) and Schwab's too.

 

Let me throw out this idea that may be more constructive. 

Note that I don't like the insults either but perhaps a monetary fine can be instituted.  Say $5.00 for a really bad insult or something like that. 

Incentives work!

 

I know who it was that prompted Schwab to leave and it was one of the same two that people have been telling me drove them to leave for some time. For the most part the emphasis was on the rudeness and the lack of thought, not the actual politics.

 

We should also remember that CoB&F does not operate in a vacuum. There are other options, and if people get sick of rudeness, they have the ability to leave and go elsewhere to other forums and media.

 

Longhaul, I know you like behavioral economics, so you might enjoy looking in to the research on library fines, swear jars and the like. Some research has shown that swearing or late returns actually increase after a fine is put in place. The reason is that people no longer feel guilty; They feel they are merely paying for the privilege to swear or keep the book longer. So the policy might work, but designing the policy is more difficult than it might appear on the surface.

 

Also, thinking like an economist, there is a chance that a policy like that would select for only the richest jerks who don't mind paying fees (see: adverse selection and unintended consequences).

[Parsad]

Alot of people left because of the political climate on the message board.  But I thought it was important to have open discussions about what was transpiring...from both sides...because that was the reality of the world around us. 

 

As uncouth as politics may be, our understanding of the world around us cannot exclude politics simply because we don't like listening to others speak their truths.  But there is a time and place for it, and it was meant to revolve solely around the Politics board, so that investors weren't inundated with political posts. 

 

But the deal was that politics would go at some point...so if you can't abide by the rules, the rules will come to you.  Cheers! 

[SouthernYankee]

"As uncouth as politics may be, our understanding of the world around us cannot exclude politics simply because we don't like listening to others speak their truths."

 

-Very true. If you are a welder and/or other tradesperson in the midwest/plains states, or a restaurant worker in any state, you learned this in a big way with one stroke of the pen.

[Read the Footnotes]

Alot of people left because of the political climate on the message board.

From everyone I spoke to it was much more about low quality and rudeness. Again it was the same two names over and over again. It's like an extreme version of the Pareto principle. Instead of the 80/20 rule, it seemed like the 2998/2 rule.

 

I suppose if you remove the 2, then you might have new problems pop up, but I appreciate and support your management of the situation, Parsad.

 

Thank you for preserving an alternative to Wall Street Bets.

[Parsad]

Alot of people left because of the political climate on the message board.

From everyone I spoke to it was much more about low quality and rudeness. Again it was the same two names over and over again. It's like an extreme version of the Pareto principle. Instead of the 80/20 rule, it seemed like the 2998/2 rule.

 

I suppose if you remove the 2, then you might have new problems pop up, but I appreciate and support your management of the situation, Parsad.

 

Thank you for preserving an alternative to Wall Street Bets.

 

I also don't want to blame any individual or group of individuals.  I read the posts, and alot of crap was flowing from both sides in the Politics section over the last couple of years. 

 

I've had an exchange of emails with Greg and he's in timeout.  Just like others have been before.  It's not your typical timeout...this one requires you to change your habits.  If he feels he can do so, he will be allowed back when he's ready...and we'll all be better for it! 

 

At this point, his opinion is basically you can shove your message board where the sun don't shine...so, yeah he's not ready!  But that's up to him.  Cheers!

[Viking]

Initially I had respect for Twitter, etc who banned Trump from using their account. 

 

Then I was reading about Russia and the Putin protests and Navalny disagreed with Trumps ban because of the censorship and I quickly did a 180 on my views. 

No president should be censored by a media company because these companies should not be limiting freedom of speech.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russian-opposition-leader-navalny-slams-trump-ban-censorship-n1253679

 

I would vote to bring back Gregmal also.  I liked his comments (overall) and Schwab's too.

 

The marketplace of ideas where people can exchange information is more important than the occasional insult. 

Would Gregmal have been banned if he agreed with your politics?

 

 

Let me throw out this idea that may be more constructive. 

Note that I don't like the insults either but perhaps a monetary fine can be instituted.  Say $5.00 for a really bad insult or something like that. 

Incentives work!

 

Greg's not coming back until he learns to resist his urges.  Sure, his posts at times are good, but if his instinctive behavior is to stir trouble from time to time, and throw mud, that's not going to happen.  And that doesn't apply just to Greg, but to others as well...I don't care which side of the political fence you are on.  Learn to use Buffett's adage...if its borderline, don't do it...simple!  Cheers!

 

Thanks for providing the clarity. Moderating a board is not easy and you seem to be pretty patient with everyone. Bottom line, if you ask people not to do something and they continue to do it there are consequences. Not that complicated.

[LongHaul]

Excellent and thoughtful posts Parsad and Read the Footnotes.  I think those explanations help clarify things.

 

I don't like some rude comments on here either but I just try not to engage and make it personal.

 

Ray Dalio said that it is best to be reasonable and considerate in relationships. 

That should apply to the board as well for all participants.