Gregmal Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 I spoke with a contact working at a 911 call center earlier. Typically they get a few hundred calls during peak hours. Lately they've been receiving in excess of 8,000 per day. Most of which are people with "flu like symptoms" wondering if they need to go to the hospital. So yes, take it seriously, but this shit cuts both ways and all the hysteria certainly isn't doing us any favors if we are genuinely concerned about overloading our resource capacity. Its a shame this has to be political as well. A living Democrat/Republican/Independent is almost always better than a dead one. Awareness is the biggest thing here, but once again, scaring the shit out of everyone will also just make matters worse. Similar to why they probably, incorrectly, told everyone masks dont work. If they said that they did, no one would have them, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Trump announces that perhaps today a quarantine will be put into effect on all of New York and New Jersey and it could last for 2 weeks. Lock them up! https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/trump-new-york-new-jersey-quarantine-coronavirus/index.html New York's governor said that he spoke with Trump this morning and they did not discuss any such thing. Why does Trump do this? I believe that Trump throws these random ideas out during appearances before the press just to see what the public response will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Trump announces that perhaps today a quarantine will be put into effect on all of New York and New Jersey and it could last for 2 weeks. Lock them up! https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/trump-new-york-new-jersey-quarantine-coronavirus/index.html New York's governor said that he spoke with Trump this morning and they did not discuss any such thing. Why does Trump do this? I believe that Trump throws these random ideas out during appearances before the press just to see what the public response will be. It is idiotic to announce a potential quarantine before doing it. It creates nothing but a mass hysteria. If you need to quarantine, quarantine, but don’t say talk bout it before. Grossly incompetent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 “Yep, another Trump guy with his "This is like the flu take". Thank you!” Yes I have noticed that several of the members of “The Trump Can Do No Wrong Cult” have jumped into this conversation to support Trump and his delusional ideas. This “flu” will be all over by Easter, etc, etc. I don’t know if they really don’t understand how serious Covid-19 can get or if they have just drunk the Kool Aid to the extent they have become just as delusional as their cult leader. But it certainly is not helpful to under estimate the effects of this pandemic or to demean those taking realistic steps to stop its spread. And by the way, it is a “pandemic” despite what Mr. Grannis may believe. I wonder what these people will say as the numbers increase? I know what they'll say. It's what they always say: "Nobody could have predicted this." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardGibbons Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Well that really depends.I the grand scheme of things there isn't a real problem even with maximum death toll due to overextended hospitals. Countries will recover quite fast (<year) and in fact will be economically healthier with a lower proportion of the population in the higher age brackets. There's only a problem in the ethical/sociological sense. Yep, I agree completely and have said this from the beginning. If one is a complete psychopath who cares nothing about people, and only about the economy, doing nothing is the optimal response. In fact, "coronavirus + no response" might have better economic outcomes than "no coronavirus at all" because if COVID-19 kills retirees now, those retirees won't be unproductively consuming resources for years or decades. (The Logan's Run guide to maximizing the economy.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 “...scaring the shit out of everyone will also just make matters worse..." The problem is that it tends to becomes necessary when a lot of people believe this is no big deal and like some posters, try to spread that kind of misinformation to the gullible. People probably should be scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 I know what they'll say. It's what they always say: "Nobody could have predicted this." Have you been talking to Trump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Trump announces that perhaps today a quarantine will be put into effect on all of New York and New Jersey and it could last for 2 weeks. Lock them up! https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/trump-new-york-new-jersey-quarantine-coronavirus/index.html New York's governor said that he spoke with Trump this morning and they did not discuss any such thing. Why does Trump do this? I believe that Trump throws these random ideas out during appearances before the press just to see what the public response will be. It is idiotic to announce a potential quarantine before doing it. It creates nothing but a mass hysteria. If you need to quarantine, quarantine, but don’t say talk bout it before. Grossly incompetent. Yes, it's like announcing that you're considering closing all banks ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardGibbons Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 So yes, take it seriously, but this shit cuts both ways and all the hysteria certainly isn't doing us any favors if we are genuinely concerned about overloading our resource capacity. Its a shame this has to be political as well. Well, the hysteria increases the chance that people will practice social distancing, which is a very good outcome if you're worried about overloading hospitals. People making more phone calls doesn't worry me much. (One potential ironic political outcome of this is that as a result of Trump's actions, a bunch of old people will die. Old people tend to be Republican, so this could potentially result in Millennials superseding Boomers as the dominant political demographic. Sure, Millennials don't vote, but then again, neither do dead people.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Hmm, time to rewatch escape from NY? Snake Plissken had some great one liners... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 The tri state quarantine is, to my knowledge, changing very little. Trump should just fuck off and leave it to the governors at this point. We're all pretty much on lockdown already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Update of what is going on in Germany. Encouraging. Germany has a remarkably low coronavirus death rate — thanks largely to mass testing, but also culture, luck, and an impressive healthcare system - https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-why-coronavirus-death-rate-lower-italy-spain-test-healthcare-2020-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 “Yep, another Trump guy with his "This is like the flu take". Thank you!” Yes I have noticed that several of the members of “The Trump Can Do No Wrong Cult” have jumped into this conversation to support Trump and his delusional ideas. This “flu” will be all over by Easter, etc, etc. I don’t know if they really don’t understand how serious Covid-19 can get or if they have just drunk the Kool Aid to the extent they have become just as delusional as their cult leader. But it certainly is not helpful to under estimate the effects of this pandemic or to demean those taking realistic steps to stop its spread. And by the way, it is a “pandemic” despite what Mr. Grannis may believe. I wonder what these people will say as the numbers increase? I know what they'll say. It's what they always say: "Nobody could have predicted this." They will continue denying too with various modifications to resolve cognitive dissonance. I was thinking of posting a list of facts and responses but then I thought it's a waste of time. It goes something like this: "The number of cases grows exponentially" - "That's because there's more testing" / "There has been millions of cases already". "The number of deaths grows exponentially" - "Way fewer deaths than flu/cancer/heart disease" / "They will trail off soon" / "It won't happen in this country/state/city" And so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Here is another perspective as of today from a German, now living in the US. For the First Time, I’m Doubting My Decision to Come to America - https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stayed-germany/608980/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Here is another perspective as of today from a German, now living in the US. For the First Time, I’m Doubting My Decision to Come to America - https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stayed-germany/608980/ Very thoughtful piece. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minten Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 For the board's digestion: http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html wow... As far as I can find it is the only timely mortality data we have. CDC publishes a weekly report but I cannot find underlying data for USA (that is recent - public datasets only go through 2018). I have not checked for Asian countries. As to the European data itself, I won't make any conclusions, just presenting the evidence. Draw from it what you will. Seems everybody completely ignores the link when you don't draw any conclusions from it and that would be a huge waste, so I'll go anyway. Because the link, http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html, is really worth a click. No anecdotes or opinions, just stats. What the hell happened in January of 2017 and January of 2018 that all those people died (that, by these graphs, so obviously are not dying now; most European countries appear to have BELOW average mortality currently)? I'm guessing it was the flu, but I don't want to be a flu-bro, so I'll keep my mouth shut on that. Why didn't we shut the economy down here in Europe then, we could have saved so many lives! Oh, yeah, I forgot, nobody knew so nobody cared. Goes to show a corona death is worth at least a thousand other deaths. Also goes to show any doomsday scenario must be based on what this virus could do in the future, not what it is doing now (because as you can see in the link, on a grand scale, it isn't doing much). Also goes to show the well meant but unintended hypocrisy of mourning the dead you see, and ignoring the much, much larger numbers you don't. And then a question to this board, looking at these stats again, shouldn't we close the economy down every winter? We care about saving lives don't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRValue Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19 Downgraded by the UK Gov. But not reported in the mainstream (to my knowledge), which seems appropriate as it would go someway to destroying all the important missing about isolation and all the efforts being taken by the Gov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Seems everybody completely ignores the link when you don't draw any conclusions from it and that would be a huge waste, so I'll go anyway. Because the link, http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html, is really worth a click. No anecdotes or opinions, just stats. The whole COVID 19 discussion has become very polarizing rather than scientific, (at some point it becomes boring to keep saying, "we don't know for sure, we need more time/data, etc."). So rather than throw my own opinions out there and get dumped into Camp A or Camp B, rather let people make up their own mind. At least it gets people thinking. As you mention, the weekly mortality monitors are probably one of the strongest resources we have at his point in time to detect an incremental impact of COVID 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 For the board's digestion: http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html wow... As far as I can find it is the only timely mortality data we have. CDC publishes a weekly report but I cannot find underlying data for USA (that is recent - public datasets only go through 2018). I have not checked for Asian countries. As to the European data itself, I won't make any conclusions, just presenting the evidence. Draw from it what you will. Seems everybody completely ignores the link when you don't draw any conclusions from it and that would be a huge waste, so I'll go anyway. Because the link, http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html, is really worth a click. No anecdotes or opinions, just stats. What the hell happened in January of 2017 and January of 2018 that all those people died (that, by these graphs, so obviously are not dying now; most European countries appear to have BELOW average mortality currently)? I'm guessing it was the flu, but I don't want to be a flu-bro, so I'll keep my mouth shut on that. Why didn't we shut the economy down here in Europe then, we could have saved so many lives! Oh, yeah, I forgot, nobody knew so nobody cared. Goes to show a corona death is worth at least a thousand other deaths. Also goes to show any doomsday scenario must be based on what this virus could do in the future, not what it is doing now (because as you can see in the link, on a grand scale, it isn't doing much). Also goes to show the well meant but unintended hypocrisy of mourning the dead you see, and ignoring the much, much larger numbers you don't. And then a question to this board, looking at these stats again, shouldn't we close the economy down every winter? We care about saving lives don't we? I tried going after the bolded part above earlier. It doesn't work. I was going to comment on the link but all I would do is dig myself a bigger hole so I'm glad you did. You have some great questions and for some reason no one else replied. Anybody want to chime in? This is no doubt a moving target but I think a good question is what is the death number supposed to be? What are those such as Jurgis, Dalal, alwaysdrawing expecting death wise? There are a lot of told you so's but we know the deaths are going to go up right? What are we looking for? Can you guys throw some numbers out? Whats your rough guesstimate timeline/death wise for expected/unexpected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 “Yep, another Trump guy with his "This is like the flu take". Thank you!” Yes I have noticed that several of the members of “The Trump Can Do No Wrong Cult” have jumped into this conversation to support Trump and his delusional ideas. This “flu” will be all over by Easter, etc, etc. I don’t know if they really don’t understand how serious Covid-19 can get or if they have just drunk the Kool Aid to the extent they have become just as delusional as their cult leader. But it certainly is not helpful to under estimate the effects of this pandemic or to demean those taking realistic steps to stop its spread. And by the way, it is a “pandemic” despite what Mr. Grannis may believe. I wonder what these people will say as the numbers increase? We know the numbers are going to increase don't we? Did anyone say they wont? Whats the point where numbers increased way more then expected? Earlier in the thread when compared to the flu some links posted posited millions of deaths as "this is not the flu." Whats a reasonable cut off in your mind to determine whether or not this was all overblown or underestimated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Well orthopa, that’s what I’ve been getting at. They(those you listed and a few others) say a lot, but don’t really say anything either. They just call you names and make up political narratives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Seems everybody completely ignores the link when you don't draw any conclusions from it and that would be a huge waste, so I'll go anyway. Because the link, http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html, is really worth a click. No anecdotes or opinions, just stats. The whole COVID 19 discussion has become very polarizing rather than scientific, (at some point it becomes boring to keep saying, "we don't know for sure, we need more time/data, etc."). So rather than throw my own opinions out there and get dumped into Camp A or Camp B, rather let people make up their own mind. At least it gets people thinking. As you mention, the weekly mortality monitors are probably one of the strongest resources we have at his point in time to detect an incremental impact of COVID 19. Ok Ill bite. Every year/day people die and no one notices or cares. One could draw the conclusion that this pandemic will do little to change the yearly death rate that the area displayed above has experienced over the past couple of years. So looking a weekly mortality monitors we have had years with a large spike in the number of deaths and no one noticed. Is this all an overreaction? Even better question, unless these people croaked at home, how did the hospitals handle his volume of sick/dying people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 “Yep, another Trump guy with his "This is like the flu take". Thank you!” Yes I have noticed that several of the members of “The Trump Can Do No Wrong Cult” have jumped into this conversation to support Trump and his delusional ideas. This “flu” will be all over by Easter, etc, etc. I don’t know if they really don’t understand how serious Covid-19 can get or if they have just drunk the Kool Aid to the extent they have become just as delusional as their cult leader. But it certainly is not helpful to under estimate the effects of this pandemic or to demean those taking realistic steps to stop its spread. And by the way, it is a “pandemic” despite what Mr. Grannis may believe. I wonder what these people will say as the numbers increase? We know the numbers are going to increase don't we? Did anyone say they wont? Whats the point where numbers increased way more then expected? Earlier in the thread when compared to the flu some links posted posited millions of deaths as "this is not the flu." Whats a reasonable cut off in your mind to determine whether or not this was all overblown or underestimated? Personally, I don't think it is overblown at all. I do think it will be easier to answer your question later on as there is more data. I'd want to know the case fatality rate when hospitals are experiencing normal load & when they are full, and a hypothetical R0 where people are behaving normally like it was "just the flu." At the end of this, I think we'll be able to know those numbers. If acting like any other flu projects to 80k-160k deaths when all is said and done then I'd say it was blown way out of proportion. 80k flu deaths in 2018 was the worst year in four decades. And life carried on. I dunno. Choose your proportion. We will be able to plug in the numbers at some point. At the end of this I think we will get to 80k deaths with the entire nation locked down for several months. Italy has 90k confirmed cases and 9k deaths. I think the USA ratio will look similar at the end of this. Our health care quality is nothing special. Currently, we are tacking on 15-20k confirmed cases a day. That should stabilize and go down, but over the next 60-90 days I think it's pretty likely we'll get to 800k cases and 80k deaths all the while under a soft-lockdown scenario. To me that is not overblown, because if we weren't in soft lockdown you could be looking at 10s of millions of cases and single digit millions deaths. For example, here are annual flu numbers. Estimated that 9-45 million people a year get it. > CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. I would ask you Orthopa the same question, what would you need to see to say that it's NOT overblown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 "If acting like any other flu projects to 80k-160k deaths when all is said and done then I'd say it was blown way out of proportion." I think what people are missing is that this is not REPLACING the flu, it is in ADDITION to the flu deaths. And 80-160K deaths may not be a big deal to you, but when some of those deaths become you or yours then it is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Well orthopa, that’s what I’ve been getting at. They(those you listed and a few others) say a lot, but don’t really say anything either. They just call you names and make up political narratives. Oh, yeah - don't disagree with the CoBF experts here. They have everyone's motivations figured out. And they just love to pile on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts