Coronavirus

[orthopa]

We appear to be at the top of the curve in NY and still have underwhelming trends in other states. Oregon is sending out ventilators, they are done. Looking at the data NY is the complete outlier. Again they are the exception, not the rule.

 

Interesting that Fauci sat on the sidelines during the presser yesterday. I wonder/have a feeling people within the administration are a little tired of his worst case scenario and dire predictions. Especially with signs that we are nearing/at the top and currently at 10kish deaths. This is the worst week coming up, Overall deaths in the US way down compared to the corona virus deaths. We are saving humanity indirectly.

 

The model used for all of this wildly wrong and NYC discharging way more pts then admitting. ICU need off by a factor of 10x per Cuomos previous comments. Holy shit.

 

Fauci now saying maybe 25-50% of people asymptomatic? No shit, didnt I say that a month ago?  Once more serologic testing comes out we will find that way, way, way more people have antibodies, millions of people. The death rate will plummet as I suggested back in one of my first posts and even though this "isnt the flu" we will find the death rate approaches it rapidly with serologic testing.

 

Based on the data there appears to be no question that warmer climates seem to limit the spread, look at CA, FL, TX, AZ, NM.

 

I have a feeling those who were at first forecasting the most dire predictions will become disingenuous and suggest we are not counting enough dead bodies!!!

 

Ill stick my neck out again and say country is opened by 4/30. Fauci losing favor with Trump and will slide into the background. Watch for more evidence on a daily basis that this was way more wide spread then thought. 

 

We will see in the next 7-10 days but I think there is a good chance that we will find that the lockdowns did nothing as evidenced by the death rate, number of deaths and miles traveled in the Dalal's ealier post. A lot of the areas that people traveled the most have the lowest death rates!!!! How do we explain that?

 

 

[orthopa]

Hope trump doesn’t see this

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/big-short-s-michael-burry-joins-twitter-with-pleas-to-end-covid-19-lockdown-1.1417820

 

Big Short's Michael Burry joins Twitter with pleas to end COVID-19 lockdown

 

Well he went in big on Gamestop and Tailored Brands, so not surprising.

 

No is probably because the country is starting to see that we may have gone a little out of control relative to what we are seeing nationwide.

[orthopa]

Hope trump doesn’t see this

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/big-short-s-michael-burry-joins-twitter-with-pleas-to-end-covid-19-lockdown-1.1417820

 

Big Short's Michael Burry joins Twitter with pleas to end COVID-19 lockdown

 

Well he went in big on Gamestop and Tailored Brands, so not surprising.

 

 

Bill Ackman on board too. Millions asymptomatic and exposed, we could be approaching herd immunity by fall in large populations.

[orthopa]

 

Wow what an idiot! LOL.  ;D The flu? No way!!!!

 

We will see.

[orthopa]

Eventually we will start to see data that wearing a mask unless around a high risk population/nursing home is going to be useless. Are masks a thing of the past by next fall?

[cubsfan]

We appear to be at the top of the curve in NY and still have underwhelming trends in other states. Oregon is sending out ventilators, they are done. Looking at the data NY is the complete outlier. Again they are the exception, not the rule.

 

Interesting that Fauci sat on the sidelines during the presser yesterday. I wonder/have a feeling people within the administration are a little tired of his worst case scenario and dire predictions. Especially with signs that we are nearing/at the top and currently at 10kish deaths. This is the worst week coming up, Overall deaths in the US way down compared to the corona virus deaths. We are saving humanity indirectly.

 

The model used for all of this wildly wrong and NYC discharging way more pts then admitting. ICU need off by a factor of 10x per Cuomos previous comments. Holy shit.

 

Fauci now saying maybe 25-50% of people asymptomatic? No shit, didnt I say that a month ago?  Once more serologic testing comes out we will find that way, way, way more people have antibodies, millions of people. The death rate will plummet as I suggested back in one of my first posts and even though this "isnt the flu" we will find the death rate approaches it rapidly with serologic testing.

 

Based on the data there appears to be no question that warmer climates seem to limit the spread, look at CA, FL, TX, AZ, NM.

 

I have a feeling those who were at first forecasting the most dire predictions will become disingenuous and suggest we are not counting enough dead bodies!!!

 

Ill stick my neck out again and say country is opened by 4/30. Fauci losing favor with Trump and will slide into the background. Watch for more evidence on a daily basis that this was way more wide spread then thought. 

 

We will see in the next 7-10 days but I think there is a good chance that we will find that the lockdowns did nothing as evidenced by the death rate, number of deaths and miles traveled in the Dalal's ealier post. A lot of the areas that people traveled the most have the lowest death rates!!!! How do we explain that?

 

Fascinating - and I certainly hope you are correct. Don't let the haters suppress your valuable opinion.

[cubsfan]

The model used for all of this wildly wrong and NYC discharging way more pts then admitting. ICU need off by a factor of 10x per Cuomos previous comments. Holy shit.

 

Orthopa:

 

Along the lines of "unintended consequences - what is your opinion on this article?  - which I find surprising:

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/coronavirus-hospitals-across-nation-lay-off-tens-of-thousands-of-healthcare-workers

 

I keep getting urgent bulletins here in Illinois about the shortage of healthcare workers and a call for them to come out of retirement.

[Liberty]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/should-you-wear-a-face-mask-heres-all-the-data-we-have/

 

Sweden stopping Chloroquine because of side-effects: https://www.gp.se/nyheter/g%C3%B6teborg/sahlgrenska-stoppar-behandling-med-malariamedicin-mot-covid-19-1.26236140 (google translate)

[Liberty]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html

 

The president’s pathology is endangering not just institutions, but lives.

 

Let’s start with the basics. First: Narcissistic personalities like Trump harbor skyscraping delusions about their own capabilities. They exaggerate their accomplishments, focus obsessively on projecting power, and wish desperately to win.

 

What that means, during this pandemic: Trump says we’ve got plenty of tests available, when we don’t. He declares that Google is building a comprehensive drive-thru testing website, when it isn’t. He sends a Navy hospital ship to New York and it proves little more than an excuse for a campaign commercial, arriving and sitting almost empty in the Hudson. A New York hospital executive calls it a joke.

 

Second: The grandiosity of narcissistic personalities belies an extreme fragility, their egos as delicate as foam. They live in terror of being upstaged. They’re too thin skinned to be told they’re wrong.

 

What that means, during this pandemic: Narcissistic leaders never have, as Trump likes to say, the best people. They have galleries of sycophants. With the exceptions of Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, Trump has surrounded himself with a Z-team of dangerously inexperienced toadies and flunkies — the bargain-bin rejects from Filene’s Basement — at a time when we require the brightest and most imaginative minds in the country.

 

Faced with a historic public health crisis, Trump could have assembled a first-rate company of disaster preparedness experts. Instead he gave the job to his son-in-law, a man-child of breathtaking vapidity. Faced with a historic economic crisis, Trump could have assembled a team of Nobel-prize winning economists or previous treasury secretaries. Instead he talks to Larry Kudlow, a former CNBC host.

 

Meanwhile, Fauci and Birx measure every word they say like old-time apothecaries, hoping not to humiliate the narcissist — never humiliate a narcissist — while discreetly correcting his false hopes and falsehoods. They are desperately attempting to create a safe space for our president, when the president should be creating a safer nation for all of us.

 

Third: Narcissistic personalities love nothing more than engineering conflict and sowing division. It destabilizes everyone, keeps them in control.

 

What that means, during this pandemic: Trump is pitting state against state for precious resources, rather than coordinating a national response. (“It’s like being on eBay,” complained Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York last week.) His White House is a petty palace of competing power centers. He picks fights with Democratic officials and members of the press, when all the public craves is comfort.

 

Narcissistic personalities don’t do comfort. They cannot fathom the needs of other hearts.

 

Fourth: Narcissistic personalities are vindictive. On a clear day, you can see their grudges forever.

 

What that means, during this pandemic: Trump is playing favorites with governors who praise him and punishing those who fail to give him the respect he believes he deserves. “If they don’t treat you right, don’t call,” he told Vice President Mike Pence.

 

His grudge match with New York is now especially lethal. When asked on Friday whether New York will have enough ventilators, Trump bluntly answered “No,” and then blamed the state.

 

And most relevant, as far as history is concerned: Narcissistic personalities are weak.

 

What that means, during this pandemic: Trump is genuinely afraid to lead. He can’t bring himself to make robust use of the Defense Production Act, because the buck would stop with him. (To this day, he insists states should be acquiring their own ventilators.) When asked about delays in testing, he said, “I don’t take responsibility at all.” During Friday’s news conference, he added the tests “we inherited were “broken, were obsolete,” when this form of coronavirus didn’t even exist under his predecessor.

 

This sounds an awful lot like one of the three sentences that Homer Simpson swears will get you through life: “It was like that when I got here.”

 

Most people, even the most hotheaded and difficult ones, have enough space in their souls to set aside their anger in times of crisis. Think of Rudolph Giuliani during Sept. 11. Think of Andrew Cuomo now.

 

But every aspect of Trump’s crisis management has been annexed by his psychopathology. As Americans die, he boasts about his television ratings. As Americans die, he crows that he’s No. 1 on Facebook, which isn’t close to true.

 

But it is true that all eyes are on him. He’s got a captive audience, an attention-addict’s dream come to life. It’s just that he, like all narcissistic personalities, has no clue how disgracefully — how shamefully, how deplorably — he’ll be enshrined in memory.

[cubsfan]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/who-director-faces-growing-calls-to-resign-over-handling-of-coronavirus-china

WHO director faces calls for resignation over handling of coronavirus, China

 

 

Amid persistent criticism that his organization failed to properly oversee China's coronavirus response and worked to downplay the communist nation's responsibility for the pandemic, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus is facing growing calls for his resignation from American politicians and others around the world.

 

"Dr. Tedros deceived the world," she said. "At one point, he even praised China's 'transparency during its coronavirus response efforts' despite a mountain of evidence showing the regime concealed the severity of the outbreak. This deception cost lives. "

 

Tedros' woes have been caused in large part by his regular backing of China during the coronavirus outbreak.

 

In early February, days after President Trump put in place a travel ban for foreign nationals who had recently been to China, Tedros panned coronavirus responses that "unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade," according to Reuters.

 

He also tweeted praise for China on March 20, saying "[f]or the first time, #China has reported no domestic #COVID19 cases yesterday. This is an amazing achievement, which gives us all reassurance that the #coronavirus can be beaten."

 

 

[Liberty]

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/04/best-case-global-coronavirus-ends-august-but-less-than-10-chance.html

[cubsfan]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/mark-levin-jim-acosta-cnn-briefings

 

Fox News host Mark Levin was one of the many who blasted CNN chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta for interrupting Dr. Deborah Birx during a White House press briefing on the coronavirus last week.

 

 

“Jim Acosta’s not a news reporter. He’s a self-aggrandizing narcissist. Exactly what America doesn’t need during the pandemic. He should wear a mask and a dunce cap,” Levin posted in a tweet Sunday.

 

Levin also linked to a Washington Free Beacon opinion piece which blasted Acosta for his conduct at White House press briefings, accusing him of using the events to make a name for himself.

 

Birx addressed the apparent errors the World Health Organization (WHO) made leading up to the outbreak in the U.S. as something that should be examined.

 

"I will remind you that on February 3rd, the head of the WHO said there was no reason to ever do a travel ban," Dr. Birx said. "It wasn't until January 14th that we knew that there was human-to-human transmission," she continued.

 

 

 

Jonathan Turley

@JonathanTurley

 

Jim Acosta's interruption of Dr. Birx is an example of how CNN's echo-journalism model is des troying the media's credibility.Every question from Acosta is an effort to score points rather than elicit information. It is a press pandemic that continues to rage without relief.

 

[gary17]

so to get immunity , i agree there's only two ways: vaccine or herd immunity. 

vaccine is at least 12months out- so for the next 12 months there are only a couple of options:

 

a) give up what we are doing now, get to herd immunity or do anti body tests to see if it's already here -  possible

b) get this under control in the next 30 days, and hopefully we get back to some sort of containment mode (we are in mitigation now).  so containment = a lot of contact tracing + lots of tests + masks.    i think US is setup for doing all these.

 

i still don't see a path to a quick 'bounce back'  - i think for jobs that can be done from home (i.e, professional services, ) and jobs of lesser risk (certain type of manufacturing or construction that inherently means less gathering of people for example)  can likely swing back to 'normal' , but a lot of other businesses such as restaurants and movie theatres, entertainment etc will likely see a low.

same with airlines i believe. 

[cubsfan]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/thousands-of-ny-covid-patients-being-treated-with-anti-malarial-drug-hydroxychloroquine

 

Thousands Of NY COVID Patients Being Treated With Anti-Malarial Drug Hydroxychloroquine

[orthopa]

The model used for all of this wildly wrong and NYC discharging way more pts then admitting. ICU need off by a factor of 10x per Cuomos previous comments. Holy shit.

 

Orthopa:

 

Along the lines of "unintended consequences - what is your opinion on this article?  - which I find surprising:

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/coronavirus-hospitals-across-nation-lay-off-tens-of-thousands-of-healthcare-workers

 

I keep getting urgent bulletins here in Illinois about the shortage of healthcare workers and a call for them to come out of retirement.

 

I dont practice in NYC, King County, LA etc but to just give some perspective whats happening here medically.

 

1. The urgent cares in our network have closed down centers within close proximity on weekends. 15% of centers now closed on weekends. Next step is closing at 6pm instead of 8pm. Volumes are down 80% across the board.

2. ER wait times online averaging 0-10 minutes. There are 5 hospitals in this IDN with these ERs. ~2400 beds total, not sure of bed count.

3. All elective surgery has been cancelled at local hospitals. Nurses are being told to take vacation time/furloughed as there are little no patients on the orthopedic/general surgery floors. OB/GYN still at normal volumes of course. No pre op/post op recovery being done.

4. Im still in contact with many in the orthopedic community and the largest non academic orthopedic group has asked all non provider staff to take 50% pay cuts going forward if salaried. Use vacation/sick time first. All PAs have been furloughed until further notice as its mainly a non trauma/orthopedic group. Ortho surgeons who do sports medicine better have a nice emergency fund saved up.

5. Local surgical centers have shut down. ENT, plastics, ophthalmology, GI docs/PAs, nursing staff same as above.

 

The hospitals are all emptied, waiting, and ready to go.

 

Maybe cobfadec and others/relatives/family working in the hospitals can give some color on what they are seeing.

 

This is my post from 2 weeks ago I believe every bit of that article. I'm not in NYC but am in NY. At least in my area everything was modeled as worst case ie Italy, Spain. One local system has 650 free beds and had 80 corona virus patients as of a couple of days ago.  I got a call from NYS DOH 2 weeks ago regarding my skill set experience etc. Haven't heard back since and don't expect to either. I think people in NYC have come out of retirement and or working cross specialty. I dont think its makes much sense to pull anyone else state wide going forward

 

All that was occurring in my above post is still the same now. Hospital system still shut down outside of emergency surgery, ERs etc. Some of the local hospital employed specialty physicians have been asked to take a pay cut. Low census and no elective surgeries make for no money. Crazy to think hospitals are asking doctors to take a pay cut during a pandemic but what we are seeing in many areas is that the amount of covid patients are not superior to normal patient volume for every day community care. We certainly will see exceptions in "hot spots" but nationwide this is not the case it seems.

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

Gottlieb on hydroxychloroquine:

 

(Thread)

 

based on my conversations with three friends who have admitting privileges at (NYP) one of the best NYC hospitals, plaq+z pack has been administered since very early on with very good results (very few patients dont have favorable immediate improvement).  same with my pulmonologist buddy in Jax. 

 

if Fauci is not 100% completely behind this treatment (with additional treatments hopefully soon to follow), he really does not now what is going in in the best hospitals in US

[Liberty]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/mark-levin-jim-acosta-cnn-briefings

 

Fox News host Mark Levin was one of the many who blasted CNN chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta for interrupting Dr. Deborah Birx during a White House press briefing on the coronavirus last week.

 

 

“Jim Acosta’s not a news reporter. He’s a self-aggrandizing narcissist. Exactly what America doesn’t need during the pandemic. He should wear a mask and a dunce cap,” Levin posted in a tweet Sunday.

 

Levin also linked to a Washington Free Beacon opinion piece which blasted Acosta for his conduct at White House press briefings, accusing him of using the events to make a name for himself.

 

Birx addressed the apparent errors the World Health Organization (WHO) made leading up to the outbreak in the U.S. as something that should be examined.

 

"I will remind you that on February 3rd, the head of the WHO said there was no reason to ever do a travel ban," Dr. Birx said. "It wasn't until January 14th that we knew that there was human-to-human transmission," she continued.

 

 

 

Jonathan Turley

@JonathanTurley

 

Jim Acosta's interruption of Dr. Birx is an example of how CNN's echo-journalism model is des troying the media's credibility.Every question from Acosta is an effort to score points rather than elicit information. It is a press pandemic that continues to rage without relief.

 

Is this real? Are you really linking to a whole article blasting someone for "interrupting" an expert while he speaks, while Trump constantly does this to everyone and contradicts experts to their faces based on no facts and keeps them from even answering questions (like yesterday's question to Fauci about Chloroquine)?

[cubsfan]

Thanks Orthopa - I just could not understand the constant urgent calls for health care workers in Illinois. I get these bulletins every day.

[Liberty]

Gottlieb on hydroxychloroquine:

 

(Thread)

 

based on my conversations with three friends who have admitting privileges at (NYP) one of the best NYC hospitals, plaq+z pack has been administered since very early on with very good results (very few patients dont have favorable immediate improvement).  same with my pulmonologist buddy in Jax. 

 

if Fauci is not 100% completely behind this treatment (with additional treatments hopefully soon to follow), he really does not now what is going in in the best hospitals in US

 

You think Fauci doesn't have better info than your "three friends"?

[cubsfan]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/mark-levin-jim-acosta-cnn-briefings

 

Fox News host Mark Levin was one of the many who blasted CNN chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta for interrupting Dr. Deborah Birx during a White House press briefing on the coronavirus last week.

 

 

“Jim Acosta’s not a news reporter. He’s a self-aggrandizing narcissist. Exactly what America doesn’t need during the pandemic. He should wear a mask and a dunce cap,” Levin posted in a tweet Sunday.

 

Levin also linked to a Washington Free Beacon opinion piece which blasted Acosta for his conduct at White House press briefings, accusing him of using the events to make a name for himself.

 

Birx addressed the apparent errors the World Health Organization (WHO) made leading up to the outbreak in the U.S. as something that should be examined.

 

"I will remind you that on February 3rd, the head of the WHO said there was no reason to ever do a travel ban," Dr. Birx said. "It wasn't until January 14th that we knew that there was human-to-human transmission," she continued.

 

 

 

Jonathan Turley

@JonathanTurley

 

Jim Acosta's interruption of Dr. Birx is an example of how CNN's echo-journalism model is des troying the media's credibility.Every question from Acosta is an effort to score points rather than elicit information. It is a press pandemic that continues to rage without relief.

 

Is this real? Are you really linking to a whole article blasting someone for "interrupting" an expert while he speaks, while Trump constantly does this to everyone and contradicts experts to their faces based on no facts and keeps them from even answering questions (like yesterday's question to Fauci about Chloroquine)?

 

It's real - and thanks for your very informative NY Times article detailing the President's personality disorder. 

 

Absolutely no media credibility problem there!

 

Keep those valuable links coming Liberty.

[Liberty]

Thread on NYC morgue problem:

 

[ERICOPOLY]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/mark-levin-jim-acosta-cnn-briefings

 

Fox News host Mark Levin was one of the many who blasted CNN chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta for interrupting Dr. Deborah Birx during a White House press briefing on the coronavirus last week.

 

 

“Jim Acosta’s not a news reporter. He’s a self-aggrandizing narcissist. Exactly what America doesn’t need during the pandemic. He should wear a mask and a dunce cap,” Levin posted in a tweet Sunday.

 

Levin also linked to a Washington Free Beacon opinion piece which blasted Acosta for his conduct at White House press briefings, accusing him of using the events to make a name for himself.

 

Birx addressed the apparent errors the World Health Organization (WHO) made leading up to the outbreak in the U.S. as something that should be examined.

 

"I will remind you that on February 3rd, the head of the WHO said there was no reason to ever do a travel ban," Dr. Birx said. "It wasn't until January 14th that we knew that there was human-to-human transmission," she continued.

 

 

 

Jonathan Turley

@JonathanTurley

 

Jim Acosta's interruption of Dr. Birx is an example of how CNN's echo-journalism model is des troying the media's credibility.Every question from Acosta is an effort to score points rather than elicit information. It is a press pandemic that continues to rage without relief.

 

Is this real? Are you really linking to a whole article blasting someone for "interrupting" an expert while he speaks, while Trump constantly does this to everyone and contradicts experts to their faces based on no facts and keeps them from even answering questions (like yesterday's question to Fauci about Chloroquine)?

 

Playing the victim.

[ERICOPOLY]

Absolutely no media credibility problem there!

 

Keep those valuable links coming Liberty.

 

Shooting the messenger.  Is this your superior debating skill on display?

[cubsfan]

Absolutely no media credibility problem there!

 

Keep those valuable links coming Liberty.

 

Shooting the messenger.  Is this your superior debating skill on display?

 

Back to your feeble psychobabble - let's hear your analysis on the President's mental state for the upteemth time.

 

You're so good at silence dissenting opinions.

[Liberty]

Absolutely no media credibility problem there!

 

Keep those valuable links coming Liberty.

 

Shooting the messenger.  Is this your superior debating skill on display?

 

He's a garden-variety troll. You could have a 12-hour Ken Burns documentary about a single thing that Trump did wrong shown from every possible angle all caught on tape and he still would never update his thinking. He'd probably change the subject to something totally unrelated that someone else did wrong (as if it cancels out) because to these people, it's about scoring points and tribalism, not about trying to understand what is going on.

 

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9weLK2AJ9JEt2Tt8f/politics-is-the-mind-killer

 

Politics is an important domain to which we should individually apply our rationality—but it’s a terrible domain in which to learn rationality, or discuss rationality, unless all the discussants are already rational.

 

Politics is an extension of war by other means. Arguments are soldiers. Once you know which side you’re on, you must support all arguments of that side, and attack all arguments that appear to favor the enemy side; otherwise it’s like stabbing your soldiers in the back—providing aid and comfort to the enemy. People who would be level-headed about evenhandedly weighing all sides of an issue in their professional life as scientists, can suddenly turn into slogan-chanting zombies when there’s a Blue or Green position on an issue.