Coronavirus

[LongHaul]

Sweden looks ok - not great.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

[LongHaul]

 

New chart on adherance to mask wearing and RO.  Fascinating. 

https://masks4all.co/

 

 

[Peregrine]

Sweden looks ok - not great.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

Not sure how worldometer counts. This is from Sweden's own public health website:

 

COVID ICU admissions:

 

 

COVID daily deaths:

 

[samwise]

Interesting data coming out of Sweden. No lockdown policy (though citizens are being extra careful) yet ICU admissions have been flat for a month and COVID deaths have been on the decline.

 

So it coincides with the data from the countries who have been in lockdown? Interesting. As I originally said, probably to the delight of many, Trump fucked up and panicked because it came time to either make a decision, or pass the buck. Allowing the shutdown was catastrophically stupid. Just use common sense.

 

"Every 1% increase in unemployment means 40,000 people die". We just increased unemployment, 100% willingly, by a gazillion million percent, because a low 5 figure number of old people and folks with conditions might die... Donald Trump.... "I'm not responsible for that"

 

To be fair, Sweden is a low density country with a fairly homogenous citizenry who believes in individual responsibility to society. So they're doing some social distancing themselves without the draconian lockdown orders in place.

 

The US saw what happened to NYC and extrapolated that to everywhere else in the country which is an assumption that is showing to be misguided with growing evidence.

 

Every country of size did a lockdown. The idea the US had a choice to avoid recession is misleading. We had no data and global demand contracted. We don't control China, France, Spain, Italy, ect. I don't get this point because who are we blaming? Every local and state leader? It feels like a political point more than a helpful one.

 

During Spanish Flu, some countries had minimal economic and health impact. Some got beat up in both. Luck plays a role. Preparedness plays a role.

 

Sweden is definitely interesting. Thanks for posting frank87.

 

It’s one of the control cases in a global study on proper policy response. The proper comparison is with its Scandinavian neighbours. If they all get off lightly, then something about the region (like population density) saved them all. But if Denmark is ok and many more Swedes die, then that would show that the lockdown helps. Or the opposite.

 

I am also interested in an economic comparison between them. As Schwab mentioned, it’s not as if everything is normal in Sweden currently. Yes schools and hair-dressers and restaurants are not closed, but people are definitely going out less (almost comparable to Denmark or Norway) according to google’s data. So has Sweden done better economically than Denmark or Norway? Or is the net effect on the economy just as bad.

 

Another interesting case will be Brazil, perhaps compared to Ecuador. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/lula-bolsonaro-brazil-to-slaughterhouse-covid-19-coronavirus

https://time.com/5822926/bolsonaro-fires-health-minister-coronavirus/

 

Unfortunately I don’t know much about these regions of the world. But this is a global board. If anyone can post about economic and health effects in these regions, then we can figure out what the trade off actually looks like, without depending much on models. Best case is the disease can be managed without too much economic damage. I would hope for that.

 

Back from natural social experiments to models. Models are all we have for things never seen before, whether those models are mental or excel sheet based, mathematical or common sense based. There are now models looking at reopening.

BC has talked about some partial reopening where contact between people is reduced, i.e give the virus fewer chances to transmit and reduce R0. They estimate BC is currently at 30% of normal, but could be increased to 60% of normal and things can be kept in control. Not sure yet what that means in terms of the economy. It’s still bad for airlines and hotels as discretionary travel will still be restricted.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-health-officials-say-some-covid-19-restrictions-could-be-lifted-in-mid-may-1.4901026

[Guest cherzeca]

 

New chart on adherance to mask wearing and RO.  Fascinating. 

https://masks4all.co/

 

ever ask a barber if you needed a haircut?

[Viking]

Are people seriously suggesting that the lock down that happened in most advanced countries in the world to deal with the virus was a mistake because millions of people did not die (i.e. the projections were wrong)? Talk about revisionist history.

 

Virus comes to US. No testing. It spreads and community transfer begins. Clusters form in Washington State and New York City. Very limited testing. Virus continues to spread. These 2 regions start seeding virus to all other states in US. Now limited testing. Virus numbers start to explode. ‘Experts’ explain that now that virus is seeded in all parts of the US it will double every 4-5 days. If nothing is done health care system will be overrun and death rate will skyrocket.

 

By now the world has many examples of countries where the virus was allowed to cluster and spread with limited testing being done: Wuhan China, Iran and Northern Italy. The result was a health catastrophe. The only solution was to lock down the regions, and eventually the entire country. Health care systems were completely overwhelmed. Many people were dying because hospitals had no resources to care for them. If lock downs had not happened how many people would have died in Wuhan, Iran or Northern Italy? And the virus would have spread more quickly to the rest of the world.

 

The outbreaks in Washington State and New York City provided frightening examples of what was coming to the US if nothing was done. Testing was still not available. So the US had one choice to avoid a health catastrophe. And that was to lock down the country.

 

The fact that the US did not experience a health catastrophe (like other parts of the world) is due to the lock downs that were put in place. It has taken 4 weeks for the results of the lock downs to become apparent.

 

To now suggest that lock downs were a waste of time is complete and utter BS. Re-read this thread and all the facts are there for those who care to look. When a country mismanages the virus it has one tool to get control back: lock down.

————————————

Here is what is important today: Has the US learned any lessons in the past 2 months?

1.) One big lesson is testing is the key to managing the virus until a vaccine is found. Massive numbers of tests are needed. They need to be prioritized. Results need to be provided within 24 hours.

2.) Contact tracing needs to be done for all people who test positive. An army of people will be needed for this.

3.) Quarantine: people who test positive need to be quarantined and supported as needed through this.

 

Scott Gottleib says the earliest the US will be able to do the above in some capacity is the fall. The President has just stated that the federal government will not be providing leadership on solving the testing issue; it will be left up to the states. No leadership or coordination at the federal level. Not good.

 

What this means is as the US opens back up it will be at high risk of more clusters forming which then re-seed the virus into many parts of the US. This means the risks are high that the US will be needing to do another lock down.

 

If your health response to the virus is wrong you will kill your economy. If you get the health response right you can start to get your economy moving again.

 

[no_free_lunch]

As Sweden shows there is something in between total lockdown and nothing at all. Trump's plan isn't just a complete reopening and back to February precaution levels, e.g. no precautions. People will wear masks, wash their hands, avoid large gatherings.  Hopefully that will be enough in areas with lower virus concentrations.

 

You have to remember that there are human health costs to staying closed.  Many medical procedures are being pushed off, people are not going in for cancer screenings to the same levels, mental health problems are surely going to increase, we need money to pay for medicine and medical procedures. 

 

Its not black and white.  You have to find a balance and staying locked away until zero cases is ignoring these other costs.

[RichardGibbons]

I have consistently said that all scientists and public policy experts understood from the beginning that covid was lethal only against elderly and those with underlying complications.  so do we focus our limited (at least at the beginning) mitigation resources on everyone or on those most at risk...no we do worse than stupid and put the elderly at especial danger...hell, nursing homes weren't shut down to visitors until late March.

 

why this stupidity?  because we are too reliant on experts and put our common sense in a dust bin.

 

Yeah, the problem is that this common sense doesn't work, and experts know this while non-experts like you and me do not. (Well, I do know it now, but I didn't a few weeks ago.)

 

The actual common sense is that the elderly need more contact with people in society than anyone else except children. If you get a huge percentage of the population infected with an easily-transmitted virus, then it's impossible to isolate the elderly.

 

British Columbia has been among the most successful regions in the world at responding to the virus.  Yet 26 Care Home just in the Vancouver area have had outbreaks.

 

A long term care nurse lives with me, and her boss has been fantastic--locking down his care home before every other care facility in BC, preventing movement of employees across care homes early, fever testing everyone every day, PPEing all the staff... Even with that, one of the people there caught COVID-19 in early April, and worked in the care home with patients for several days before she became symptomatic and was diagnosed.

 

And this is with extreme precautions in care homes and low per-capita cases everywhere in the province. Now give 50% of the population COVID-19, and assume that most of the elderly population isn't actually in care homes, but rather living in their own places or maybe being taken care of by their kids.

 

Now, one could say that common sense should allow you to take that information, and extrapolate to a massive death toll among the elderly if your suggested approach were adopted.

 

But I think that's wrong. It think it's more that you aren't educated enough on this topic to understand what would happen in this situation, and so you rely on incorrect "common sense" that would wipe out a large percentage of the elderly.

 

(That said, I don't blame you at all for talking about your common sense approach--speculation is fine, and everyone knows you're no epidemiologist. You'd only deserve derision if you believe that your common sense is superior to the decades of knowledge of the epidemiologists who actually understand the consequences of what you propose.)

[wescobrk]

Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer.

Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas.

 

The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Are people seriously suggesting that the lock down that happened in most advanced countries in the world to deal with the virus was a mistake because millions of people did not die (i.e. the projections were wrong)? Talk about revisionist history.

 

Virus comes to US. No testing. It spreads and community transfer begins. Clusters form in Washington State and New York City. Very limited testing. Virus continues to spread. These 2 regions start seeding virus to all other states in US. Now limited testing. Virus numbers start to explode. ‘Experts’ explain that now that virus is seeded in all parts of the US it will double every 4-5 days. If nothing is done health care system will be overrun and death rate will skyrocket.

 

By now the world has many examples of countries where the virus was allowed to cluster and spread with limited testing being done: Wuhan China, Iran and Northern Italy. The result was a health catastrophe. The only solution was to lock down the regions, and eventually the entire country. Health care systems were completely overwhelmed. Many people were dying because hospitals had no resources to care for them. If lock downs had not happened how many people would have died in Wuhan, Iran or Northern Italy? And the virus would have spread more quickly to the rest of the world.

 

The outbreaks in Washington State and New York City provided frightening examples of what was coming to the US if nothing was done. Testing was still not available. So the US had one choice to avoid a health catastrophe. And that was to lock down the country.

 

The fact that the US did not experience a health catastrophe (like other parts of the world) is due to the lock downs that were put in place. It has taken 4 weeks for the results of the lock downs to become apparent.

 

To now suggest that lock downs were a waste of time is complete and utter BS. Re-read this thread and all the facts are there for those who care to look. When a country mismanages the virus it has one tool to get control back: lock down.

————————————

Here is what is important today: Has the US learned any lessons in the past 2 months?

1.) One big lesson is testing is the key to managing the virus until a vaccine is found. Massive numbers of tests are needed. They need to be prioritized. Results need to be provided within 24 hours.

2.) Contact tracing needs to be done for all people who test positive. An army of people will be needed for this.

3.) Quarantine: people who test positive need to be quarantined and supported as needed through this.

 

Scott Gottleib says the earliest the US will be able to do the above in some capacity is the fall. The President has just stated that the federal government will not be providing leadership on solving the testing issue; it will be left up to the states. No leadership or coordination at the federal level. Not good.

 

What this means is as the US opens back up it will be at high risk of more clusters forming which then re-seed the virus into many parts of the US. This means the risks are high that the US will be needing to do another lock down.

 

If your health response to the virus is wrong you will kill your economy. If you get the health response right you can start to get your economy moving again.

 

Great summary of the progress that has been made in this thread (though there are forces that insist we go backwards and rehash some older, largely defunct discussions). Funny that "socialist" state Sweden (whose numbers don't look that good and has very low density) is cherry picked. Coming up with notions alternative to Occam (and ignoring the pile of evidence on Occam's side) is hard work.

 

Germany gets it. So did S Korea.

 

We've flattened in the hard hit places in U.S. and I think it is time to strategically reopen them. I think it is going to take lots of testing, public masks, some form of contact tracing, etc. And I think some regions (due to governors) will excel over others (due largely to vacuum of leadership at the federal level).

[RichardGibbons]

 

New chart on adherance to mask wearing and RO.  Fascinating. 

https://masks4all.co/

 

ever ask a barber if you needed a haircut?

 

LOL, these guys don't sell masks.

 

I know it's a bizarre suggestion, but, during a pandemic, you might want to consider the idea that some people may want to stop that pandemic for reasons other than profit.

[Viking]

As Sweden shows there is something in between total lockdown and nothing at all. Trump's plan isn't just a complete reopening and back to February precaution levels, e.g. no precautions. People will wear masks, wash their hands, avoid large gatherings.  Hopefully that will be enough in areas with lower virus concentrations.

 

You have to remember that there are human health costs to staying closed.  Many medical procedures are being pushed off, people are not going in for cancer screenings to the same levels, mental health problems are surely going to increase, we need money to pay for medicine and medical procedures. 

 

Its not black and white.  You have to find a balance and staying locked away until zero cases is ignoring these other costs.

 

I agree that lock down is terrible. Economic costs are massive. And there are severe health costs.

 

What this means is you need to get your health response to the virus right. Testing. Contact tracing. Quarantine. The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence is the US economy is likely screwed until a vaccine is developed.

 

 

[DooDiligence]

A timely quote from the 1985 shareholders letter,

 

“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads.

One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction.

Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.” - Woody Allen

 

www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1985.html

 

---

 

He's probably conflicted with regards to what he feels are obligations to both shareholders & employees,

 

"A few shareholders have questioned the wisdom of remaining in the textile business which, over the longer term, is unlikely to produce returns on capital comparable to those available in many other businesses. Our reasons are several: (1) Our mills in both in New Bedford and Manchester among the largest employers in each town...(2) Management has also been energetic and straightforward in its approach to our textile problems...(3) With hard work and some imagination regarding manufacturing and marketing configurations, it seems reasonable that at least modest profits in the textile division can be achieved in the future."

 

www.gurufocus.com/news/842584/whats-berkshire-hathaways-failure-can-tell-us-about-investing

 

---

 

Here's a comprehensive visualization of his big wins & losses,

to remind us that the Oracle is not infallible, but that he's

managed to make a lot of lemonade despite the failures.

 

www.visualcapitalist.com/warren-buffetts-biggest-wins-and-fails/

 

(This is part 4 of a really good series.)

 

---

 

I sold all the BRK.B in my brokerage account for a small gain to marshal cash.

 

I'm keeping the BRK.B position in my tax advantaged account, which is roughly double the size of the position I just sold.

 

---

 

I'm not sure if this post adds ANY value to the discussion but it does help me to understand & tolerate his (apparent) inaction.

 

I'm willing to place my faith in WEB persisting in order to meet the

aforementioned obligations & maintain a legacy which historians

will both laude & pick nits with for generations to come.

 

P.S. I never liked the airline investments.

 

---

 

edit: probably should've put this in the BRK section since the 1st quote was the only part that really applied to decisions made re: corona.

[Guest cherzeca]

so much stupidity. see https://www.wsj.com/articles/hydroxychloroquine-and-other-autoimmune-drugs-dont-fully-protect-against-coronavirus-early-data-suggest-11587222001?mod=hp_lead_pos11

 

plaquenil is prescribed to treat not prevent...tries to arrest over-attack by immune system, IL-6, causing pneumonia.  as is z-pack prescribed in conjunction, as a senolytic.  I dont know any hospital system prescribing plaq without zpack, or prescribing it as a prophylactic as opposed to a treatment.

[matts]

Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer.

Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas.

 

The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive.

 

I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. 

 

A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense.

 

how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days.

 

 

[DooDiligence]

I walk my area regularly & have been amazed by how much traffic there is & by how busy the boat launch has been.

 

There's loads of people hanging out at the launch, parting & completely ignoring social distancing.

 

All of the small locally owned businesses are open (as are the Winn Dixie & Publix). The Ace hardware parking lot is nearly full every time I walk past.

 

I'm guessing that the majority of similarly sized communities are experiencing the same activity levels.

 

People are going to do what they want regardless of potential hazards.

[wescobrk]

Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer.

Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas.

 

The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive.

 

I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. 

 

A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense.

 

how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days.

 

Well I'm speculating to some degree as even the medical professionals don't know the course of the pathogen. My point is everything seems to be priced for almost perfection in the equity markets. The probability is higher than the market is pricing in for a 2nd wave. It isn't pricing anything in for a more virulent mutation. Look at the 1918 pathogen. The 2nd wave was more deadly than the first.

 

I hope I am wrong and the cases stay low and don't increase. I just don't see it happening unless a therapeutic comes out in the fall that is 95% effective. A vaccine is at least 18 months away.

[cobafdek]

vacuum of leadership at the federal level

 

The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence

 

Should the President replace Fauci/Birx?

[Gregmal]

vacuum of leadership at the federal level

 

The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence

 

Should the President replace Fauci/Birx?

 

I was clear all along I am not a believer that Trump deserves much credit or blame for most of this. However others disagreed. Despite really refusing to give numbers, and declaring a disaster was a certainty, and that it was all Trumps fault, surely you'd think they'd be heaping praise on him now that the totals they were either projecting or implying were giant fairytales, no? Nah...Of course they dont. They just change the story. Again.

[tng]

 

I was clear all along I am not a believer that Trump deserves much credit or blame for most of this. However others disagreed. Despite really refusing to give numbers, and declaring a disaster was a certainty, and that it was all Trumps fault, surely you'd think they'd be heaping praise on him now that the totals they were either projecting or implying were giant fairytales, no? Nah...Of course they dont. They just change the story. Again.

 

I think people are wishing it is Trump's fault because that means there actually is an obvious solution that will come out. I don't think anybody could have done much better or worse. I don't think anything could have been done at cities like New York that has large international travel and relies heavily on the subway system. The virus was likely seeded already before anybody knew about it and the large cities were screwed without draconian Wuhan style quarantines and nobody could have done that. The only obvious mistake I see is the absolute fiery conviction that western doctors had that civilians should not be masked.

 

Even now, I think there is a lot of blind faith that testing and contact tracing will work. I think it is actually getting more and more likely that we will be forced into the herd immunity route whether we like it or not.

[Viking]

vacuum of leadership at the federal level

 

The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence

 

Should the President replace Fauci/Birx?

 

At the end of the day the president owns the national response. If Fauci/Birx are providing bad advice then they should be replaced. If you watch 5 or more of Trump’s daily updates you will quickly realize who the problem is. Is that what a world class national response to a global pandemic looks like?

[matts]

Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer.

Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas.

 

The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive.

 

I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. 

 

A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense.

 

how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days.

 

Well I'm speculating to some degree as even the medical professionals don't know the course of the pathogen. My point is everything seems to be priced for almost perfection in the equity markets. The probability is higher than the market is pricing in for a 2nd wave. It isn't pricing anything in for a more virulent mutation. Look at the 1918 pathogen. The 2nd wave was more deadly than the first.

 

I hope I am wrong and the cases stay low and don't increase. I just don't see it happening unless a therapeutic comes out in the fall that is 95% effective. A vaccine is at least 18 months away.

 

We will be better prepared for a second wave. Even a slightly mutated virus won't have a high enough infection rate if people practice social distancing and masks. If it mutates to be as deadly as ebola then we should all be selling stocks and buying canned goods and shotguns. But if it mutates slightly,  we have a few months to change behaviors. The behavior of the average American, which we all agree has been among the slowest to adopt, has already changed so much and it only been what? 2 months. We can do a lot in the 3-4 months before a 2nd wave hits.

 

I agree the equity markets are a bit frothy here, but this thread is about the trajectory of the virus. In the beginning, people were underestimating the virus and now people are underestimating the game-changer that is most people wearing masks and just being aware of the virus (keeping a distance, washing hands, surfaces). I see it every day. The chances of someone being infected are very small, and that's why the spread is so much lower in Asia and now starting to show in Europe.

 

 

[Gregmal]

"Then he turned his attention specifically to the media. “So look. If this insanity happens, again, news sources have to rein it in. Everyone knows corona is no walk in the park because you literally can’t walk in the park. But at some point the daily drumbeat of depression and terror veers into panic porn,” Maher continued. “Enough with the ‘life will never be the same’ headlines and stop showing us this,” at which point the screen displayed a common graphical rendering of coronavirus.

Maher then said that anything “you magnify a thousand times” looks scary, and to illustrate that point he showed an extreme close-up of a pubic hair. Then he noted a recent Washington Post headline, ‘It Feels Like a War Zone,’ which included a photograph of a supermarket stocker unloading boxes in a store’s eggs and deli meats section. “This is not a war zone. This is a man with a box of eggs. And I’ve never seen a war zone with this much bacon,” Maher joked."

 

 

“Two weeks ago, ‘Inside Edition’ said 76,000 in the world had died so some are making comparisons to the apocalypse. The apocalypse? Really? Because most of us are sitting at home smoking delivery weed and binge-watching a show about a gay zookeeper,”

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/bill-maher-media-calm-down-032951586.html

 

Hilarious and true.

[cobafdek]

vacuum of leadership at the federal level

 

The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence

 

Should the President replace Fauci/Birx?

 

At the end of the day the president owns the national response. If Fauci/Birx are providing bad advice then they should be replaced. If you watch 5 or more of Trump’s daily updates you will quickly realize who the problem is. Is that what a world class national response to a global pandemic looks like?

 

ARE they providing bad advice?

 

 

[Viking]

Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer.

Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas.

 

The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive.

 

I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. 

 

A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense.

 

how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days.

 

Well I'm speculating to some degree as even the medical professionals don't know the course of the pathogen. My point is everything seems to be priced for almost perfection in the equity markets. The probability is higher than the market is pricing in for a 2nd wave. It isn't pricing anything in for a more virulent mutation. Look at the 1918 pathogen. The 2nd wave was more deadly than the first.

 

I hope I am wrong and the cases stay low and don't increase. I just don't see it happening unless a therapeutic comes out in the fall that is 95% effective. A vaccine is at least 18 months away.

 

We will be better prepared for a second wave. Even a slightly mutated virus won't have a high enough infection rate if people practice social distancing and masks. If it mutates to be as deadly as ebola then we should all be selling stocks and buying canned goods and shotguns. But if it mutates slightly,  we have a few months to change behaviors. The behavior of the average American, which we all agree has been among the slowest to adopt, has already changed so much and it only been what? 2 months. We can do a lot in the 3-4 months before a 2nd wave hits.

 

I agree the equity markets are a bit frothy here, but this thread is about the trajectory of the virus. In the beginning, people were underestimating the virus and now people are underestimating the game-changer that is most people wearing masks and just being aware of the virus (keeping a distance, washing hands, surfaces). I see it every day. The chances of someone being infected are very small, and that's why the spread is so much lower in Asia and now starting to show in Europe.

 

We are all trying to understand what the economy will look like in the coming months and quarters. It looks to me like April and first 2 weeks of May will be a write off. After that do we get a 60% economy for a month? And then 80% the second month and afterwards until a vaccine is developed in 12-18 months?

 

Is the S&P 500 fairly valued today at 2,875 if we have a severe recession the next three months followed by the economy returns to 80% capacity afterwards until a vaccine is developed (mid to late 2021)?