Coronavirus

[Spekulatius]

I am in the Houston area where cases are up here and in Texas (see link) and my sense is that:

 

1.  People are taking more risk as the see others they know going out, etc.  (Social proof, overconfidence)

2.  On the plus side a lot of people are wearing masks.

3.  But - Houston is hot and humid - so cases are up even with higher temperatures, more sun and high humidity

 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/coronavirus/article/covid-interactive-map-houston-texas-us-case-virus-15142609.php

 

I personally think that Covid 19 goes way up in many parts of the US - especially when it cools down. 

 

The secondary effect of people going out and taking more chances is that many more people could get Covid-19 and it is not a zero chance

that it gets so bad the hospital beds become full. When people see that on the news then they will get REALLY scared again. 

That would really tank the economy again.  Hard to predict though.

 

The more confident people are the more dangerous the virus danger is.

 

I wrote this before, but when people see other people  doing “risky” things, they intuitively think it is safe (social proof food concept). Ironically it is just the opposite - going to an empty restaurant is way less risky than going to a full one for example.

 

I am not sure how much of a cofactor colder weather is. People are mostly indoors and most infections occur indoors as well. it might increase the susceptibility of the respiratory system but then on the other hand, the epidemic has been raging pretty well in warmer climates as well (Italy, Spain, Brazil etc).

[cwericb]

"I am not sure how much of a cofactor colder weather is. People are mostly indoors and most infections occur indoors as well. it might increase the susceptibility of the respiratory system but then on the other hand, the epidemic has been raging pretty well in warmer climates as well (Italy, Spain, Brazil etc)."

 

Well if the flu is any indicator, look what happens late fall, early winter. Will this spread like the flu?

[ERICOPOLY]

Regarding Winter,

 

Doesn't indoor heating create low relative humidity and therefore longer virus particle suspension times?

[Spekulatius]

Regarding Winter,

 

Doesn't indoor heating create low relative humidity and therefore longer virus particle suspension times?

 

Yes, good point. Dry air dries out the sinuses /mucus which is the body’s defense mechanism against respiratory viruses. We know already that workers meat processing planets tend to get COVID -19 partly because standing I cold and dry air for long periods of time makes them more susceptible. So a pickup in virus activity in winter is very likely.

[samwise]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b

 

"Coronavirus: Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden?

And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?"

 

By Tomas Pueyo, from "The Hammer and the Dance" and other smart writings about COVID.

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

He is very optimistic that the dance can be maintained at low cost indefinitely, until vaccines are available. If true, doesn’t this support the general market level now? The economy may function almost ok, barring some mass entertainment events which need >50/100 people together.

 

Do you share such an optimistic view?

 

Let’s say California and North east manage the dance, and the mid west, Texas, Arizona fail and need another hammer lockdown. How big an impact is that to the US economy?

[Spekulatius]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b

 

"Coronavirus: Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden?

And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?"

 

By Tomas Pueyo, from "The Hammer and the Dance" and other smart writings about COVID.

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

He is very optimistic that the dance can be maintained at low cost indefinitely, until vaccines are available. If true, doesn’t this support the general market level now? The economy may function almost ok, barring some mass entertainment events which need >50/100 people together.

 

Do you share such an optimistic view?

 

Let’s say California and North east manage the dance, and the mid west, Texas, Arizona fail and need another hammer lockdown. How big an impact is that to the US economy?

 

I just went thought the article and I think it is pretty good. It matches the info I could gather from various sources.

 

The problem with the herd immunity is that it takes a long time, as the Swedes found out and in the case of the US, the current IFR numbers suggest it would cost a lot of lives. We have had 120k death so far caused by the disease and with herd immunity it could be 10x as much.

 

A lot of European countries  have already case numbers so low they they can open up and have schools up and running for example. So essentially, they are already ahead of the US in how the economy can operate. This is due to the more effective and stronger shutdown measures.

 

As far as the impact of several states like Texas, AZ, AL and other having high infection rates for a long time and what it means for the economy  it’s really hard to tell. Maybe the population in states themselves ignores this and carries on. However, what about travel into and from these states? It’s free movement generally, but will people from COVID-19 free states will want to travel into these states? It will cause some issues for sure. I think we will have to see how this works. I am sure that real virus containment in the US isn’t really an option any more.

[mcliu]

After a multi-trillion dollar global lockdown, turns out masks could have solved the problem.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study/widespread-mask-wearing-could-prevent-covid-19-second-waves-study-idUSKBN23G37V

[Investor20]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b

 

"Coronavirus: Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden?

And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?"

 

By Tomas Pueyo, from "The Hammer and the Dance" and other smart writings about COVID.

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

He is very optimistic that the dance can be maintained at low cost indefinitely, until vaccines are available. If true, doesn’t this support the general market level now? The economy may function almost ok, barring some mass entertainment events which need >50/100 people together.

 

Do you share such an optimistic view?

 

Let’s say California and North east manage the dance, and the mid west, Texas, Arizona fail and need another hammer lockdown. How big an impact is that to the US economy?

 

I just went thought the article and I think it is pretty good. It matches the info I could gather from various sources.

 

The problem with the herd immunity is that it takes a long time, as the Swedes found out and in the case of the US, the current IFR numbers suggest it would cost a lot of lives. We have had 120k death so far caused by the disease and with herd immunity it could be 10x as much.

 

A lot of European countries  have already case numbers so low they they can open up and have schools up and running for example. So essentially, they are already ahead of the US in how the economy can operate. This is due to the more effective and stronger shutdown measures.

 

As far as the impact of several states like Texas, AZ, AL and other having high infection rates for a long time and what it means for the economy  it’s really hard to tell. Maybe the population in states themselves ignores this and carries on. However, what about travel into and from these states? It’s free movement generally, but will people from COVID-19 free states will want to travel into these states? It will cause some issues for sure. I think we will have to see how this works. I am sure that real virus containment in the US isn’t really an option any more.

 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/no-new-coronavirus-cases-found-in-japan/1870548

No new coronavirus cases found in Japan

Japan did not have mandatory lockdowns. Yet they went to zero.

 

The other day Spekulatius was arguing about protests and saying because protestors wear masks so it should be ok.

 

So.....why then stronger shutdown measures are needed?  Wear a mask and you can do anything, per Spekulatius logic.

[clutch]

Excusing protesters because they wear masks while gathering in masses:

"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

 

And I have seen the protesters first hand in Toronto, and no, not everyone wears a mask and they often pull them down especially when they talk.

[Spekulatius]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b

 

"Coronavirus: Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden?

And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?"

 

By Tomas Pueyo, from "The Hammer and the Dance" and other smart writings about COVID.

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

He is very optimistic that the dance can be maintained at low cost indefinitely, until vaccines are available. If true, doesn’t this support the general market level now? The economy may function almost ok, barring some mass entertainment events which need >50/100 people together.

 

Do you share such an optimistic view?

 

Let’s say California and North east manage the dance, and the mid west, Texas, Arizona fail and need another hammer lockdown. How big an impact is that to the US economy?

 

I just went thought the article and I think it is pretty good. It matches the info I could gather from various sources.

 

The problem with the herd immunity is that it takes a long time, as the Swedes found out and in the case of the US, the current IFR numbers suggest it would cost a lot of lives. We have had 120k death so far caused by the disease and with herd immunity it could be 10x as much.

 

A lot of European countries  have already case numbers so low they they can open up and have schools up and running for example. So essentially, they are already ahead of the US in how the economy can operate. This is due to the more effective and stronger shutdown measures.

 

As far as the impact of several states like Texas, AZ, AL and other having high infection rates for a long time and what it means for the economy  it’s really hard to tell. Maybe the population in states themselves ignores this and carries on. However, what about travel into and from these states? It’s free movement generally, but will people from COVID-19 free states will want to travel into these states? It will cause some issues for sure. I think we will have to see how this works. I am sure that real virus containment in the US isn’t really an option any more.

 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/no-new-coronavirus-cases-found-in-japan/1870548

No new coronavirus cases found in Japan

Japan did not have mandatory lockdowns. Yet they went to zero.

 

The other day Spekulatius was arguing about protests and saying because protestors wear masks so it should be ok.

 

So.....why then stronger shutdown measures are needed?  Wear a mask and you can do anything, per Spekulatius logic.

 

I never said the protest are Ok.

 

I did state there are 3 factors that mitigate infections - mask wearing ( mostly) , younger crowd and protest being outdoors.

 

Japan did have shutdowns. The larger cities ( Tokyo) were shutdown fairly early. The did not have a countrywide shutdown however.

[Investor20]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2020388#article_references

Hydroxychloroquine for the Prevention of Covid-19 — Searching for Evidence

 

I was going through the article and they dont mention India's ICMR or Korean studies on use of HCQ for prophylaxis but only Boulware.  Boulware administered the drug only for four days, while Korean study gave drug for full quarantine period of 14 days.  ICMR gives once a  week and found it is effective only after 4 weeks of administration.

 

Also Boulware confirmed infection "by polymerase-chain-reaction assay in less than 3% of the participants. "

 

They determined if someone is infected by email or phone by self diagnosis (I am not kidding....check it yourself). 

Can anyone here tell me there are more Covid infected in LA or NYC by talking to a few people over phone? But that is the only study they can write an article about HCQ in NEJM?

 

Why so called "scientists" and top notch medical journals do this?

 

See Below References on HCQ use for prophylaxis that NEJM apparently cannot find where below studies used PCR testing, not self diagnosis by phone & email.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7162746/

Can post-exposure prophylaxis for COVID-19 be considered as an outbreak response strategy in long-term care hospitals?

 

Many patients would be expected to become infected with COVID-19 in the setting of cluster outbreaks associated with LTCHs. In this study, there were no additional confirmed cases among exposed patients and caregivers; however, it is not clear whether PEP was effective because there was no control group.

 

 

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/preventive-use-of-hcq-in-frontline-healthcare-workers-icmr-study-6442948/

 

A new study by the Indian Council of Medical research (ICMR), which examined the prophylactic role of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) to prevent SARS-nCOV2, found that the risk of healthcare workers (HCWs) contracting the infection was much lower if a sustained dose was taken along with use of personal protective equipment (PPE).

....

“However, with the intake of four or more maintenance doses of HCQ, the protective effect started emerging,” Dr Samiran Panda, director of ICMR- National AIDS Research Institute (NARI) and one of the study authors, told The Indian Express. “A significant reduction (more than 80%) in the odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the HCWs was identified with the intake of six or more doses of HCQ prophylaxis,” Dr Panda added.

[Investor20]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b

 

"Coronavirus: Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden?

And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?"

 

By Tomas Pueyo, from "The Hammer and the Dance" and other smart writings about COVID.

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

He is very optimistic that the dance can be maintained at low cost indefinitely, until vaccines are available. If true, doesn’t this support the general market level now? The economy may function almost ok, barring some mass entertainment events which need >50/100 people together.

 

Do you share such an optimistic view?

 

Let’s say California and North east manage the dance, and the mid west, Texas, Arizona fail and need another hammer lockdown. How big an impact is that to the US economy?

 

I just went thought the article and I think it is pretty good. It matches the info I could gather from various sources.

 

The problem with the herd immunity is that it takes a long time, as the Swedes found out and in the case of the US, the current IFR numbers suggest it would cost a lot of lives. We have had 120k death so far caused by the disease and with herd immunity it could be 10x as much.

 

A lot of European countries  have already case numbers so low they they can open up and have schools up and running for example. So essentially, they are already ahead of the US in how the economy can operate. This is due to the more effective and stronger shutdown measures.

 

As far as the impact of several states like Texas, AZ, AL and other having high infection rates for a long time and what it means for the economy  it’s really hard to tell. Maybe the population in states themselves ignores this and carries on. However, what about travel into and from these states? It’s free movement generally, but will people from COVID-19 free states will want to travel into these states? It will cause some issues for sure. I think we will have to see how this works. I am sure that real virus containment in the US isn’t really an option any more.

 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/no-new-coronavirus-cases-found-in-japan/1870548

No new coronavirus cases found in Japan

Japan did not have mandatory lockdowns. Yet they went to zero.

 

The other day Spekulatius was arguing about protests and saying because protestors wear masks so it should be ok.

 

So.....why then stronger shutdown measures are needed?  Wear a mask and you can do anything, per Spekulatius logic.

 

I never said the protest are Ok.

 

I did state there are 3 factors that mitigate infections - mask wearing ( mostly) , younger crowd and protest being outdoors.

 

Japan did have shutdowns. The larger cities ( Tokyo) were shutdown fairly early. The did not have a countrywide shutdown however.

 

Then stick to that.  We dont need "strong shut down measures" in US if all we need according to you is people who are not vulnerable to wear masks and be outside or atleast avoid closed environments.

 

Japan did not have mandatory shutdowns.  Hear from the horses mouth, PM Abe himself on this

 

 

PM's Office of Japan',  @JPN_PMO, Apr 7

#COVID19 update (PM Abe’s remarks on April 6):

“Allow me to make it clear once again. In Japan, even if we issue the declaration of a state of emergency, we will not enforce the lockdowns of cities as seen abroad. It is the view of the experts that that would not be necessary.

 

[Liberty]

When Italy is better run than the US...

 

[Jurgis]

US is so fucked Covid-great!

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/as-coronavirus-cases-rise-nationwide-public-health-experts-urge-caution/2020/06/10/1617dee4-ab36-11ea-a9d9-a81c1a491c52_story.html

[mcliu]

Looks like US is going for herd immunity.

 

People won't stay home anymore when they see large protests like this. It'll suck for healthcare workers, but US will get to herd immunity faster.

[rb]

I think it'll suck for everyone.

[StubbleJumper]

Looks like US is going for herd immunity.

 

People won't stay home anymore when they see large protests like this. It'll suck for healthcare workers, but US will get to herd immunity faster.

 

 

 

Yes, the US appears to be advancing quickly along path to herd immunity (if such a thing actually exists).  The US currently has 2 million officially diagnosed cases, and if the current pace of adding ~15k/day continues through the summer, there will be ~3 million official cases by August 31.  Serology tests suggest that the number of people carrying antibodies is 10-for-1 or 15-for-1 compared to the number of official cases.  If this is true on a large scale, there might be 30+ million with antibodies today, and possibly 45 million on August 31.  If we think herd immunity kicks in when ~60% or ~200 million people have already had covid, 45 million is significant. 

 

The larger scale seroprevalence studies will be very interesting as the summer progresses.

 

 

SJ

[Investor20]

Now, the Harvard researcher who co-authored two articles on its research says he never saw the data and can’t verify its existence.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-data-mystery-behind-retracted-covid-19-studies-of-hydroxychloroquine-other-drugs-11591867981

 

Its a subscription article, but this statement is sufficient to see the quality of "research" is so poor. 

 

 

[Peregrine]

The interesting case is New York City. Despite widespread protests beginning about two weeks ago, COVID positivity rate and new hospitalizations continue to come down day after day. This may indicate that a place like NYC has already reached a level of herd immunity and that you don't need to see immunity get anywhere near the 70% level that everyone says is needed to see the R0 fall below 1. FYI, antibody testing in NYC suggests 20-25% infection rate - so maybe that's even enough.

[Liberty]

Looks like US is going for herd immunity.

 

People won't stay home anymore when they see large protests like this. It'll suck for healthcare workers, but US will get to herd immunity faster.

 

Herd immunity: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b

 

 

[Gregmal]

It will be curious to see how these play out. I dont think any of these red states will go full shutdown over a few thousand cases a day or whatever. But I would imagine this would effect people mentally and as we ve seen the corporations who probably are acting out of 1) genuine concern and 2) not wanting the liability/blood on their hands; so they err on the side of caution such as SBUX did with many of its drive through location and what most corporate offices are currently doing. As with most socially responsible acts, this will obviously have a cost, which will be bore by shareholders as their allocation of the profits dwindles and in some cases, their per share ownership gets diluted.

 

I'm also eagerly anticipating seeing everyone who missed the massive rally get excited and say "see! I was right to be in cash", after a 10-20% retreat. Which I will buy again. And others will probably completely miss. Maybe Buffett gets a mulligan.

 

I agree about the psychology of the trading range as others have said. I dont see the recent highs being eclipsed for a while. So play the ranges.

[Peregrine]

One more thing about the rise in hospitalizations in some states: because hospitals put off elective surgeries and people were completely avoiding hospitals over the last few months, there has been a sizeable backlog of people coming in over the recent weeks. Anyone who enters the hospital gets tested for COVID so even those who come in for completely different ailments and are asymptomatic will be listed as a COVID hospitalization if they test positive for it. With that said, there has not been anywhere close to the huge spikes we saw in NYC.

[mattee2264]

 

Re-opening is a series of steps. So the logical response to a rise in cases is to take a step back and see if cases stabilize and if they don't take a further step back. And if cases explode take a leap back. I think containment is the goal rather than expecting to achieve zero cases and I also think that in re-opening it is to be expected there will be a rise in cases. So agree that a few thousand cases a day isn't going to set off any alarm bells and watchful waiting is going to be the most likely response.

 

And yeah so long as the virus is in circulation a lot of people are gonna continue to WFH if at all possible and it will be difficult for businesses to force them to come into work. Especially in a big city reliant on public transport I cannot expect people being willing to brave the rush hour. And WFH will probably depress productivity and discourage all but essential hiring.

 

And yeah I think we are going to see risk-on/risk-off trading for a while. That isn't enough to cause a crash or a melt-up. But could create some good buying opportunities especially as while the S&P 500 may only correct 10-20% the more cyclical stuff such as energy, financials, travel related stocks etc are going to have much bigger moves.

[StubbleJumper]

The interesting case is New York City. Despite widespread protests beginning about two weeks ago, COVID positivity rate and new hospitalizations continue to come down day after day. This may indicate that a place like NYC has already reached a level of herd immunity and that you don't need to see immunity get anywhere near the 70% level that everyone says is needed to see the R0 fall below 1. FYI, antibody testing in NYC suggests 20-25% infection rate - so maybe that's even enough.

 

 

NYC was showing 21% with antibodies on April 23, so what would it be today?  Would it be as high as 30% today (7 weeks later), or is that dreaming in Technicolour?  Right off the top, that would cut the R0 by 30%....

 

 

SJ

[Spekulatius]

One more thing about the rise in hospitalizations in some states: because hospitals put off elective surgeries and people were completely avoiding hospitals over the last few months, there has been a sizeable backlog of people coming in over the recent weeks. Anyone who enters the hospital gets tested for COVID so even those who come in for completely different ailments and are asymptomatic will be listed as a COVID hospitalization if they test positive for it. With that said, there has not been anywhere close to the huge spikes we saw in NYC.

 

Yes, it is important to keep the hospitals open. The most critical number to look at is hospitalizations, which isn’t really impacted by testing rate. I also look at %positive tested. What you don’t want to see is all these three (including tested positive #) indicators shooting up rapidly, which is the code in AZ, FL and a few other stated right now.

 

Any lockdown will be driven by hospital utilization’s. Color of the state (blue or red) won’t matter. Once hospital space gets tight, I think any state will start various lockdown measures.