Coronavirus

[KCLarkin]

That gives a CFR of (3/1299)*1000 = 0.23%.  This is from PCR testing. Not Seroprevalence data.

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2020/may/15/tennessee-prisons-report-fourth-inmate-death-virus-outbreak/523083/

 

I haven't seen this study, but the obvious drawback is that prisons (aircraft carriers, cruise ships, etc) aren't representative populations. I'm not sure about the stats in that prison, but in Canada the majority of prisoners are young (20-40) males. So a CFR of 0.23% in that population would be consistent with a much higher IFR in the wider population. Did Ionnidis attempt to make this adjustment? Naively, I'd think that data would support an age-adjusted IFR closer to 1%.

 

I'd also be reluctant to compare death rates between countries. According to CIA World Factbook, the U.S. has twice the obesity rate of Italy. In the U.S., I'd also be worried about the disparity in health care coverage.

 

IFR is also not static. It depends on how stretched health care capacity is and the quality of treatment (which is evolving quickly).

[Investor20]

That gives a CFR of (3/1299)*1000 = 0.23%.  This is from PCR testing. Not Seroprevalence data.

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2020/may/15/tennessee-prisons-report-fourth-inmate-death-virus-outbreak/523083/

 

I haven't seen this study, but the obvious drawback is that prisons (aircraft carriers, cruise ships, etc) aren't representative populations. I'm not sure about the stats in that prison, but in Canada the majority of prisoners are young (20-40) males. So a CFR of 0.23% in that population would be consistent with a much higher IFR in the wider population. Did Ionnidis attempt to make this adjustment? Naively, I'd think that data would support an age-adjusted IFR closer to 1%.

 

I'd also be reluctant to compare death rates between countries. According to CIA World Factbook, the U.S. has twice the obesity rate of Italy. In the U.S., I'd also be worried about the disparity in health care coverage.

 

IFR is also not static. It depends on how stretched health care capacity is and the quality of treatment (which is evolving quickly).

 

If you read Prof. Ioannidis (yes he is the few I would give that respect in this drama), he stated very clearly in his articles, he is adjusting the profile of the studies to the US demographic profile.

[KCLarkin]

Maybe

That gives a CFR of (3/1299)*1000 = 0.23%.  This is from PCR testing. Not Seroprevalence data.

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2020/may/15/tennessee-prisons-report-fourth-inmate-death-virus-outbreak/523083/

 

I haven't seen this study, but the obvious drawback is that prisons (aircraft carriers, cruise ships, etc) aren't representative populations. I'm not sure about the stats in that prison, but in Canada the majority of prisoners are young (20-40) males. So a CFR of 0.23% in that population would be consistent with a much higher IFR in the wider population. Did Ionnidis attempt to make this adjustment? Naively, I'd think that data would support an age-adjusted IFR closer to 1%.

 

I'd also be reluctant to compare death rates between countries. According to CIA World Factbook, the U.S. has twice the obesity rate of Italy. In the U.S., I'd also be worried about the disparity in health care coverage.

 

IFR is also not static. It depends on how stretched health care capacity is and the quality of treatment (which is evolving quickly).

 

If you read Prof. Ioannidis (yes he is the few I would give that respect in this drama), he stated very clearly in his articles, he is adjusting the profile of the studies to the US demographic profile.

 

I don’t see the Trousdale prison “study” in this meta-analysis. Or is that in a different paper?

 

If you read Prof. Ioannidis (yes he is the few I would give that respect in this drama)

 

Given how shoddy the Santa Clara study was, is there any reason (other than confirmation bias) why you still trust him? As far as I can tell, his reputation was largely destroyed with this one study.

[Investor20]

Maybe

That gives a CFR of (3/1299)*1000 = 0.23%.  This is from PCR testing. Not Seroprevalence data.

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2020/may/15/tennessee-prisons-report-fourth-inmate-death-virus-outbreak/523083/

 

I haven't seen this study, but the obvious drawback is that prisons (aircraft carriers, cruise ships, etc) aren't representative populations. I'm not sure about the stats in that prison, but in Canada the majority of prisoners are young (20-40) males. So a CFR of 0.23% in that population would be consistent with a much higher IFR in the wider population. Did Ionnidis attempt to make this adjustment? Naively, I'd think that data would support an age-adjusted IFR closer to 1%.

 

I'd also be reluctant to compare death rates between countries. According to CIA World Factbook, the U.S. has twice the obesity rate of Italy. In the U.S., I'd also be worried about the disparity in health care coverage.

 

IFR is also not static. It depends on how stretched health care capacity is and the quality of treatment (which is evolving quickly).

 

If you read Prof. Ioannidis (yes he is the few I would give that respect in this drama), he stated very clearly in his articles, he is adjusting the profile of the studies to the US demographic profile.

 

Maybe I am dense, but I don’t see the Tousdale prison “study” in his Metaanalysis. Or is that in a different paper?

I have not seen it in Prof. Ioannidis studies either.  It is my search for cross checking. But he has covered other PCR studies to support himself.

 

This is another

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/20/838943211/73-of-inmates-at-an-ohio-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus

 

A state prison has become a hot spot of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ohio, with at least 1,828 confirmed cases among inmates — .....

 

The large cluster of cases was found through mass testing of everyone at the Marion Correctional Institution; 109 staff members were also positive. No COVID-19 deaths have been reported at the prison.

 

"Because we are testing everyone — including those who are not showing symptoms — we are getting positive test results on individuals who otherwise would have never been tested because they were asymptomatic," the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction says.

 

 

[Peregrine]

That gives a CFR of (3/1299)*1000 = 0.23%.  This is from PCR testing. Not Seroprevalence data.

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2020/may/15/tennessee-prisons-report-fourth-inmate-death-virus-outbreak/523083/

 

I haven't seen this study, but the obvious drawback is that prisons (aircraft carriers, cruise ships, etc) aren't representative populations. I'm not sure about the stats in that prison, but in Canada the majority of prisoners are young (20-40) males. So a CFR of 0.23% in that population would be consistent with a much higher IFR in the wider population. Did Ionnidis attempt to make this adjustment? Naively, I'd think that data would support an age-adjusted IFR closer to 1%.

 

I'd also be reluctant to compare death rates between countries. According to CIA World Factbook, the U.S. has twice the obesity rate of Italy. In the U.S., I'd also be worried about the disparity in health care coverage.

 

IFR is also not static. It depends on how stretched health care capacity is and the quality of treatment (which is evolving quickly).

 

There's a tighter age distribution in prisons compared to the general population, i.e. less really young people and less really old people. So perhaps the lesser representation on both age extremes balances itself out somewhat. But by no means can the prison population be considered "healthy" - they have far lower life expectancies than the general population and most come with multiple comorbidities. They're also not receiving the same level of health care.

 

On the subject of IFR, I think it's clear that early estimates for this virus's IFR was heavily sampled against severe cases that over-represented the older population. That positivity rates have been rising over the past few weeks in select states yet death rates continue to decline provides further evidence that the IFR across the entire population is likely well lower than 1%.

[KCLarkin]

So perhaps the lesser representation on both age extremes balances itself out somewhat.

 

The risk seems to be non-linear with age, so the absence of <20 year olds would cause less skew than the absence of >60 year olds. But the health comment is a fair point. Also, 3 deaths is not enough to draw meaningful conclusions.

[Spekulatius]

So perhaps the lesser representation on both age extremes balances itself out somewhat.

 

The risk seems to be non-linear with age, so the absence of <20 year olds would cause less skew than the absence of >60 year olds. But the health comment is a fair point. Also, 3 deaths is not enough to draw meaningful conclusions.

 

When you look at updates from the Ohio prison outbreak from late May, you will find that more prisoners and even 2 wards have died from COVID-19. They also didn’t didn’t everyone despite stating so earlier.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

[Peregrine]

So perhaps the lesser representation on both age extremes balances itself out somewhat.

 

The risk seems to be non-linear with age, so the absence of <20 year olds would cause less skew than the absence of >60 year olds. But the health comment is a fair point. Also, 3 deaths is not enough to draw meaningful conclusions.

 

Yes, it's hard to say. Basically, the share of deaths of the under-18 cohort in the US rounded to the nearest whole percentage point is 0 while the share of deaths of the over-65 cohort is over 90%.

[Spekulatius]

 

 

At least the Virus has a V-shaped recovery in the US. It sounds like in Houston, hospital are essentially full, which means that another shutdown is very likely.  Hospital utilization will drive shutdowns. I am surprised they let it rise to 97%, but maybe they are not counting overflow capacity.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/gov-abbott-texas-facing-massive-outbreak-as-coronavirus-cases-continue-to-soar/285-8671a837-d723-4e06-a438-8bbc19e1c86b

[Dalal.Holdings]

At least the Virus has a V-shaped recovery in the US. It sounds like in Houston, hospital are essentially full, which means that another shutdown is very likely.  Hospital utilization will drive shutdowns. I am surprised they let it rise to 97%, but maybe they are not counting overflow capacity.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/gov-abbott-texas-facing-massive-outbreak-as-coronavirus-cases-continue-to-soar/285-8671a837-d723-4e06-a438-8bbc19e1c86b

 

Pretty much. Unfortunately, the R governors of FL and TX who Daddy "Hydroxychloroquine 'n Bleach" Trump whispers into the ears of will have a much higher threshold before they consider lockdowns. They may even try to avoid them. It will not be pretty.

 

Just watch as all the Cuomo bashing goes quiet over the next weeks...

[jamesmadison]

It's hard to know exactly what's going with the increase in positive testing in the warmer states.  There are a number of theories out there.  I strongly recommend watching the video below. 

 

 

Assuming some level of immutability of virus behavior, we may simply be seeing what happens in a very large country with dramatically different geographies.

[StubbleJumper]

At least the Virus has a V-shaped recovery in the US. It sounds like in Houston, hospital are essentially full, which means that another shutdown is very likely.  Hospital utilization will drive shutdowns. I am surprised they let it rise to 97%, but maybe they are not counting overflow capacity.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/gov-abbott-texas-facing-massive-outbreak-as-coronavirus-cases-continue-to-soar/285-8671a837-d723-4e06-a438-8bbc19e1c86b

 

Pretty much. Unfortunately, the R governors of FL and TX who Daddy "Hydroxychloroquine 'n Bleach" Trump whispers into the ears of will have a much higher threshold before they consider lockdowns. They may even try to avoid them. It will not be pretty.

 

Just watch as all the Cuomo bashing goes quiet over the next weeks...

 

 

Why would the Cuomo bashing go quiet?  If things turn badly in Texas, Arizona and elsewhere over the next few weeks, should that make people re-evaluate the quality of decision making in NY State during March/April?  Explain how the two are linked.

 

 

SJ

[jamesmadison]

It's hard to know exactly what's going with the increase in positive testing in the warmer states.  There are a number of theories out there.  I strongly recommend watching the video below. 

 

 

Assuming some level of immutability of virus behavior, we may simply be seeing what happens in a very large country with dramatically different geographies.

 

Perhaps ...

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbTNx76UwAA6mZV?format=jpg&name=900x900

[Peregrine]

What's been shown in the past is that beds and ICUs are fairly easy to create more of - it's healthcare staff that's the binding constraint.

 

Anyway, hospital bed utilization for the whole of Harris County (which Houston is a part of) is currently at 82%, which is within normal ranges of 80-85%. Seems like ICU utilization is particularly high at one specific hospital, Houston Medical Center. Don't think this is as dire as it has been made out to be.

[jamesmadison]

What's been shown in the past is that beds and ICUs are fairly easy to create more of - it's healthcare staff that's the binding constraint.

 

Anyway, hospital bed utilization for the whole of Harris County (which Houston is a part of) is currently at 82%, which is within normal ranges of 80-85%. Seems like ICU utilization is particularly high at one specific hospital, Houston Medical Center. Don't think this is as dire as it has been made out to be.

 

Agreed.  Anyone worried that hospitals are running at 82% utilization doesn't know anything about the way hospitals operate.  ICU utilization is frequently 90-100% as well under normal circumstances.   

[Dalal.Holdings]

...And we just hit a record high for daily new covid cases in the U.S...

 

 

Just "hype" from the "media". Nothing. To see. Here.

 

Carry on.

[KCLarkin]

It's hard to know exactly what's going with the increase in positive testing in the warmer states.  There are a number of theories out there.  I strongly recommend watching the video below. 

 

 

Assuming some level of immutability of virus behavior, we may simply be seeing what happens in a very large country with dramatically different geographies.

 

Perhaps ...

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbTNx76UwAA6mZV?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

It is very curious that U.S. is the only country showing these dynamics.

 

Canada, as an example, has increased testing but decreased cases and hospitalizations despite reopening. And our cases are also skewing younger.

 

And it is very strange how the sunbelt was largely spared in March but seems on the edge of a major outbreak now.

 

So weird.

 

[jamesmadison]

It's hard to know exactly what's going with the increase in positive testing in the warmer states.  There are a number of theories out there.  I strongly recommend watching the video below. 

 

 

Assuming some level of immutability of virus behavior, we may simply be seeing what happens in a very large country with dramatically different geographies.

 

Perhaps ...

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbTNx76UwAA6mZV?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

It is very curious that U.S. is the only country showing these dynamics.

 

Canada, as an example, has increased testing but decreased cases and hospitalizations despite reopening. And our cases are also skewing younger.

 

And it is very strange how the sunbelt was largely spared in March but seems on the edge of a major outbreak now.

 

So weird.

 

Are you being sarcastic?  It's hard to tell.

 

Regardless, the video literally answers your question.  There's no part of Canada that's tropical, while large swaths of the US are.  Thus, the US is partially like Italy (NYC) and partially like tropical regions (Tx, AZ, etc.) and we may be seeing the death curves regionally match up. 

[Peregrine]

It's hard to know exactly what's going with the increase in positive testing in the warmer states.  There are a number of theories out there.  I strongly recommend watching the video below. 

 

 

Assuming some level of immutability of virus behavior, we may simply be seeing what happens in a very large country with dramatically different geographies.

 

Perhaps ...

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbTNx76UwAA6mZV?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

It is very curious that U.S. is the only country showing these dynamics.

 

Canada, as an example, has increased testing but decreased cases and hospitalizations despite reopening. And our cases are also skewing younger.

 

And it is very strange how the sunbelt was largely spared in March but seems on the edge of a major outbreak now.

 

So weird.

 

There's so much we don't know about this virus so assuming the worst experiences and extrapolating that everywhere else is probably faulty. If anything, the hardest hit places look like the outliers.

[KCLarkin]

It's hard to know exactly what's going with the increase in positive testing in the warmer states.  There are a number of theories out there.  I strongly recommend watching the video below. 

 

 

Assuming some level of immutability of virus behavior, we may simply be seeing what happens in a very large country with dramatically different geographies.

 

Perhaps ...

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbTNx76UwAA6mZV?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

It is very curious that U.S. is the only country showing these dynamics.

 

Canada, as an example, has increased testing but decreased cases and hospitalizations despite reopening. And our cases are also skewing younger.

 

And it is very strange how the sunbelt was largely spared in March but seems on the edge of a major outbreak now.

 

So weird.

 

Are you being sarcastic?  It's hard to tell.

 

Regardless, the video literally answers your question.  There's no part of Canada that's tropical, while large swaths of the US are.  Thus, the US is partially like Italy (NYC) and partially like tropical regions (Tx, AZ, etc.) and we may be seeing the death curves regionally match up.

 

No, not being sarcastic. I’ve been to many of these states, so I agree geography and climate must be responsible but haven’t seen a great explanation why.

 

I will give your video a chance.

[BG2008]

It's hard to know exactly what's going with the increase in positive testing in the warmer states.  There are a number of theories out there.  I strongly recommend watching the video below. 

 

 

Assuming some level of immutability of virus behavior, we may simply be seeing what happens in a very large country with dramatically different geographies.

 

Perhaps ...

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbTNx76UwAA6mZV?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

It is very curious that U.S. is the only country showing these dynamics.

 

Canada, as an example, has increased testing but decreased cases and hospitalizations despite reopening. And our cases are also skewing younger.

 

And it is very strange how the sunbelt was largely spared in March but seems on the edge of a major outbreak now.

 

So weird.

 

I also found this to be weird.  Maybe it's because in the sunbelt, the winters are milder so that people tend to go outside in March.  But June is hot and scorching so people tend to stay indoors in AC.  So you have the opposite of the NYC in winter dynamic where everyone is coup up inside.  Can't really go outside that much in Texas during the day or Vegas for that matter. 

[KCLarkin]

I will give your video a chance.

 

Well, that was a mistake. Everyone knows Flu is seasonal (and experts assume Covid will have a second wave in the fall). The thing that doesn't make sense is that Flu season is over! Even in Arizona and Florida.

[jamesmadison]

I will give your video a chance.

 

Well, that was a mistake. Everyone knows Flu is seasonal (and experts assume Covid will have a second wave in the fall). The thing that doesn't make sense is that Flu season is over! Even in Arizona and Florida.

 

????

 

As are Corona Viruses

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200407164949.htm

 

 

[erdospi]

It's hard to know exactly what's going with the increase in positive testing in the warmer states.  There are a number of theories out there.  I strongly recommend watching the video below. 

 

 

Assuming some level of immutability of virus behavior, we may simply be seeing what happens in a very large country with dramatically different geographies.

 

Perhaps ...

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbTNx76UwAA6mZV?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

It is very curious that U.S. is the only country showing these dynamics.

 

Canada, as an example, has increased testing but decreased cases and hospitalizations despite reopening. And our cases are also skewing younger.

 

And it is very strange how the sunbelt was largely spared in March but seems on the edge of a major outbreak now.

 

So weird.

 

I also found this to be weird.  Maybe it's because in the sunbelt, the winters are milder so that people tend to go outside in March.  But June is hot and scorching so people tend to stay indoors in AC.  So you have the opposite of the NYC in winter dynamic where everyone is coup up inside.  Can't really go outside that much in Texas during the day or Vegas for that matter.

 

Nate Silver did some simple regressions on this, plausible explanation, but will be difficult to isolate and prove.