Coronavirus

[Dalal.Holdings]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

 

Both are culprits but to different degrees. Bars are inside an enclosed place exposure, protests (and beaches and parks) are outside in open space exposure. This has dramatic impact on viral load and consequent spread and severity.

 

Doesn’t explain why places with biggest protests are fine tho does it ?? FYI lots of protests happened in big EU cities too a few weeks ago after they saw what happened to Floyd.

 

I think the most likely factor here is that the cities that saw very low levels of spread earlier on are now seeing more. That places like NYC and London continue to see declines in positivity rate despite widespread protests signals that the level of immunity in the population is an important factor.

 

Nope, antibody positive rate in NYC is only about 15-20%. Also many EU cities had big Floyd protests and did not have spread like NYC previously. Try again.

[Liberty]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Yeah, the "they're just doing more testing" thing is just a simple one-liner cover for people who don't want to think about it and who haven't looked at the numbers. I'm seeing that in Florida it can take a couple weeks to get a test result in many places, so some stats are also behind where reality on the ground is.

 

There's many many variables. 

 

I think there's a good chance that severity has gone down because of higher vitamin D during the summer, plus lower viral load exposure because most places have been shut down and social distanced and there's more masks, which means that even if you get it now, it's probably not as bad as in early March when those who got it were packed in public transit full of people coughing and with a fever but who didn't think much of it, not washing their hands much, etc...

 

The fall/winter with be a test of the vitamin D hypothesis.

 

In any case, places like Italy and France and Spain are showing new cases in the sub-1000 range after having pretty bad outbreaks, so we know exactly how to control it. The US just needs to do it, but it can't, because the president has politicized a virus and masks, and his enablers don't have enough of a spine to stand up to him and say it's bonkers and he should let the grown ups deal with the pandemic.

[Peregrine]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

 

Both are culprits but to different degrees. Bars are inside an enclosed place exposure, protests (and beaches and parks) are outside in open space exposure. This has dramatic impact on viral load and consequent spread and severity.

 

Doesn’t explain why places with biggest protests are fine tho does it ?? FYI lots of protests happened in big EU cities too a few weeks ago after they saw what happened to Floyd.

 

I think the most likely factor here is that the cities that saw very low levels of spread earlier on are now seeing more. That places like NYC and London continue to see declines in positivity rate despite widespread protests signals that the level of immunity in the population is an important factor.

 

Nope, antibody positive rate in NYC is only about 15-20%. Also many EU cities had big Floyd protests and did not have spread like NYC previously. Try again.

 

No one knows yet what’s the level of immunity required to see R0 sustainably below 1. There may well be large segments of the population who aren’t susceptible at all. Moreover, our immune systems are a lot more Complicated than just antibodies.

[KCLarkin]

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

 

Sorry, I didn't mean that it is solely attributable to bars. But we know from South Korea, Japan, and Austria that bars are extremely risky.

 

I'm just using that as an example of poor budgeting.

 

Protests are relatively lower risk. But more importantly, they are non-discretionary. "Law and Order" and curfews and police crack-downs didn't make the protests go away. Police reform is a long-term problem. So you just need to accept that you will need to slow re-opening to the extent protests create outbreaks.

[Peregrine]

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

 

Sorry, I didn't mean that it is solely attributable to bars. But we know from South Korea, Japan, and Austria that bars are extremely risky.

 

I'm just using that as an example of poor budgeting.

 

Protests are relatively lower risk. But more importantly, they are non-discretionary. "Law and Order" and curfews and police crack-downs didn't make the protests go away. Police reform is a long-term problem. So you just need to accept that you will need to slow re-opening to the extent protests create outbreaks.

 

Agreed that outdoor transmission is relatively less risky. But these protests were taking place over whole days and weeks on end and involved hundreds of thousands of people often standing shoulder to shoulder and shouting. Now I do think masks help mitigate this spread but not all were wearing masks and those who were were likely not keeping them on the whole time.

 

Not against protests at all or making political statements; in fact, I think that they're useful in analyzing what's happened with the virus's spread.

[Liberty]

 

When we see data showing in hospital mortality for Covid patients aged 35-44 of almost 5% we should keep in mind — that’s exceptionally high; especially since criteria for admission is generally just an oxygen saturation below 93%. Many of these young people are otherwise healthy

 

[rb]

Did Florida just print 9000 cases?

[Gregmal]

Did Florida just print 9000 cases?

 

US at 33k with TX, CA and a few others still unreported for many counties. Good chance at 50k+ today. Perhaps 100k+ days coming soon given what you know will be rowdiness for 4th of July as well. Oh yea, and OK still hasn't reported the 6000 Trump attendees who undoubtedly have it. Should make for some trading opportunities. I added big time to my general market short into the close. There is almost no way the market opens green Monday, if past patterns are any indication and news flow is as expected.

[gary17]

the protests didn't help !

[Gregmal]

the protests didn't help !

 

Yea they should have ate their vegetables or whatever....

[rb]

Did Florida just print 9000 cases?

 

US at 33k with TX, CA and a few others still unreported for many counties. Good chance at 50k+ today. Perhaps 100k+ days coming soon given what you know will be rowdiness for 4th of July as well. Oh yea, and OK still hasn't reported the 6000 Trump attendees who undoubtedly have it. Should make for some trading opportunities. I added big time to my general market short into the close. There is almost no way the market opens green Monday, if past patterns are any indication and news flow is as expected.

 

I'm afraid you may be right. Though I'm not too worried about OK. There was plenty of room there to social distance. I'm more curious about the efficacy Jesus air filtration machine at the church in Arizona.  ;D

[Spekulatius]

 

When we see data showing in hospital mortality for Covid patients aged 35-44 of almost 5% we should keep in mind — that’s exceptionally high; especially since criteria for admission is generally just an oxygen saturation below 93%. Many of these young people are otherwise healthy

 

 

I wonder how this squares with the low number of death observed so far in FLA - just 37 today. Even though I understand that death are a lagging indicator (by 2-3 weeks), they should be higher than 37. It will be interesting how this developed. If those  almost 9k cases are mostly young, it sort of explains it, but with this circulation rate, it will be impossible to contain this to only young people.

[clutch]

Here is what I hope everyone is starting to understand (and I'm seeing some signs, sort of). This situation is so complex with a lot of uncertainties, not a single stat, or a chart can be used to fully explain what's going on. Yet, if you have a political lense, every data point can be interpreted to support your narrative. It's just completely unproductive but this seems to be the norm in many media outlets.

[cubsfan]

Here is what I hope everyone is starting to understand (and I'm seeing some signs, sort of). This situation is so complex with a lot of uncertainties, not a single stat, or a chart can be used to fully explain what's going on. Yet, if you have a political lense, every data point can be interpreted to support your narrative. It's just completely unproductive but this seems to be the norm in many media outlets.

 

 

 

now that is the best post on this entire thread.  +1

[Dalal.Holdings]

Lol.

[Spekulatius]

Probably true this year:

[Gregmal]

Food for thought:

 

Unfortunately, not once has CNN, MSNBC, or FOXNews published a single article containing the term "cycle threshold". The media is lying to the public about COVID-19 by making it seem as though the PCR "swab" testing used today has the ability to determine... yes you have COVID-19 or no you don't. The #1 question that the mainstream media should be asking today is... "Who determined that a cycle threshold of 40 should be used to determine whether or not you have COVID-19?"

 

A cycle threshold of 40 means that a person tests positive for COVID-19 if there is a match for one of the genetic sequences associated with SARS-CoV-2 in less than 40 cycles of amplification. After 39 cycles of amplification, there are 550 BILLION copies of the DNA being tested. If the PCR test doesn't find a match until 39 cycles, it means that the test is only finding trace amounts of one of the genetic sequences associated with SARS-Cov-2 and the person being tested has a 0% chance of getting sick or infecting another person, but based on today's CDC standards that person will count as a new positive case of COVID-19!

 

The truth is... it was already proven last month that a patient with a cycle threshold value of 35 or higher has a 0% chance of being contagious. Patients with a cycle threshold value of 33 or 34 also have an extremely low chance of being contagious.

 

Most foreign countries appear to be using cycle threshold values of between 25 and 35 to determine if a person is positive for COVID-19, which explains why they have lower amounts of COVID-19 cases.

[vinod1]

Here is what I hope everyone is starting to understand (and I'm seeing some signs, sort of). This situation is so complex with a lot of uncertainties, not a single stat, or a chart can be used to fully explain what's going on. Yet, if you have a political lense, every data point can be interpreted to support your narrative. It's just completely unproductive but this seems to be the norm in many media outlets.

 

Yes. You can also make a few points

 

1. Injecting bleach is not a good idea.

2. Masks are the vaccine we have. They make a difference.

 

I think everybody can agree to the above. Except of course, some retards who believe otherwise.

[no_free_lunch]

One thing is clear, the lockdown work.  Social isolation works. Go look at one of those new infection graphs.  You see it go exponential, flatten and start to recede. Then in June it takes off again. This correlates roughly with relaxation of counter measures and the protests.

 

We have also seen how countries with strong counter measures did not get sick to the same effect.

 

I feel this is the greatest blunder by the right since the Iraq war.  Neither party clued into this until it hit north america. However once it did the left was on it, the right foolishly took the bait and the opposite side. As a conservative it infuriates me. I support the right wingers for almost everything and I see how difficult it is for then to get elected. They are correct on so many issues but then they will take the DUMBEST point of view on some issues and screw themselves at the polls. Why in God's name did conservatives think that ignoring corona virus was smart?  Do you guys want to see a democratic dynasty?  Grow the fuck up, put down some common sense and go issue by issue and choose the right path even if the dems are there first.

[clutch]

One thing is clear, the lockdown work.

 

Again, simplifying the situation. Yes, it slows down transmission. But then what? Should we be in the lockdown until a vaccine is developed? That could be anywhere between 18 months to forever, based on the initial estimation of experts.

 

Then there are countries like S. Korea, where they never had any lockdown as we have it here or in Europe. Yet, they kept the virus under control. I think that's a strong sign that there are other much more effective measures than the lockdown.

[cwericb]

Lockdowns do work.

 

P.E.I., Canada.

Smallest and most densely populated province. Population - 160,000, 1.6 million yearly visitors. Locked down mid March.

Covid-19 cases - 27

Community spread - 0

Recovered - 27

Hospitalizations - 0

Deaths - 0

Applying US statistics, deaths would have been 60+

Last Covid-19 case was about 3 months ago.

 

Reopening cautiously.

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

If you have a true lockdown, eventually it is impossible for cases not to eventually go to 0. However, in America, this is simply not possible. Even in places where it is accepted, after 2-3 weeks people will just stop listening. Or the liberals will say protesting doesnt count.

[Dalal.Holdings]

One thing is clear, the lockdown work.

 

Again, simplifying the situation. Yes, it slows down transmission. But then what? Should we be in the lockdown until a vaccine is developed? That could be anywhere between 18 months to forever, based on the initial estimation of experts.

 

Then there are countries like S. Korea, where they never had any lockdown as we have it here or in Europe. Yet, they kept the virus under control. I think that's a strong sign that there are other much more effective measures than the lockdown.

 

LMAO! Ladies and gents, it's thinking like this which is the reason why the U.S. is the outlier on this graph:

 

 

Science is hard! Ignore the warnings of doctors and epidemiologists and go with Joe Sixpack's gut!

 

We'll do the same with climate change because America is Special and science does not apply here!

 

FYI, here's some places inside the U.S. that used lockdowns with phased reopenings and oh btw had a lot of protests in early June too (note the resemblance with developed countries that did the same):

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Massive protests in early June...in Paris...

 

 

Nantes, France too

 

 

And yet...

 

 

 

Derp...but I was told to blame the liberal protestors...

 

[clutch]

One thing is clear, the lockdown work.

 

Again, simplifying the situation. Yes, it slows down transmission. But then what? Should we be in the lockdown until a vaccine is developed? That could be anywhere between 18 months to forever, based on the initial estimation of experts.

 

Then there are countries like S. Korea, where they never had any lockdown as we have it here or in Europe. Yet, they kept the virus under control. I think that's a strong sign that there are other much more effective measures than the lockdown.

 

LMAO! Ladies and gents, it's thinking like this which is the reason why the U.S. is the outlier on this graph:

 

 

Science is hard! Ignore the warnings of doctors and epidemiologists and go with Joe Sixpack's gut!

 

We'll do the same with climate change because America is Special and science does not apply here!

 

FYI, here's some places inside the U.S. that used lockdowns with phased reopenings and oh btw had a lot of protests in early June too (note the resemblance with developed countries that did the same):

 

 

See Reply #6411. Also, look at the daily death numbers yourself and see if you see such an outlier.

 

And, you just continue to demonstrate the tendency to blind yourself with your political bias and inability to get the nuance of the points that I'm making.

 

I never said the lockdown doesn't work. Did I suggest that lifting the lockdown is a good idea? My whole point was that simply saying that "the lockdown is a clear solution" is an oversimplification. It's like saying "banning all cars is a clear solution to eliminate deaths by car accidents".

 

What's your answer for when should we lift the lockdown? Until the cases drop to 0? Until a vaccine is developed? Why are we not asking these questions to people who are pro-lockdown?