Coronavirus

[cwericb]

Excellent point on HIV.

[Gregmal]

Strictly from a market perspective, its amusing seeing the media ramp up the aggressiveness of the COVID will end the US narrative, knowing its their last chance to possibly get Trump out of office. Meanwhile, we're getting "I told you so's" and "I was right and everyone else was wrong" from people who advocated going to cash and shorting in March, and all the while the potency of the virus decays towards a very flu like number, and the market grinds higher basically saying "fool me once...."

 

I guess all thats left for some is to say "bubble" and still conclude the virus will end the US.... good luck with that.

 

I think you're misreading the situation.

 

I think Trump's problems are self-inflicted. If he was a little smart and a little competent and had a little empathy, and was surrounded by people like that too, he'd have done what almost every single country has done and this crisis would've boosted his popularity and been a clear re-election calling card, as most successfully met challenges are for presidents (9/11 for Bush, for example). I protected you, this really bad thing happened and I dealt with it well, you can trust me to have your back for 4 more years, etc.

 

Instead, it revealed him without a shadow of a doubt to be an incompetent bullshit artist who has no idea how to do the actual job, and polls reflect that.

 

As for the market, it's always going to do what it's going to do. People think it should work in lockstep with the underlying economy, but if you look at the facts, it rarely does, too many factors and reflexive feedback mechanisms. If it did, it would be a lot easier to predict, because the economy moves a lot slower than the market..

 

While this is true, contrary to the beloved narrative some here like to peddle, I really could care less about whether Trump handled things in a way that best suited his political ambitions. In fact, theres probably a greater source of truth to the argument that without some degree of mismanagement, we wouldn't have the stimulus and rate policies that are making certain long and short term investments available and extremely compelling, not to mention predictable, right now. Short term, you have capital markets completely open at outrageous rates to companies just recently believed to be on the brink of "extinction"...longer term, you have guaranteed low rates and a put option of a party change which has already committed to an outrageous level of money printing, and yet inflation protected assets in irreplaceable locations trading at historic spreads against treasuries....

 

What are these extremely compelling long and short term investments you speak of?

 

I'll respond out of respect this is a legitimate question and not some attempt to nitpick or fight like a lot of posters seem to want to do.

 

Short term, just look at who's making money...everyone. Pick your fancy and your strategy or risk tolerance. As some of us discussed on another thread here, even the most conservative of fellows could have bought pre deal SPAC significantly below NAV. Even still, right now, you've got a risk skew where buying pre deal SPAC stuff is interesting as a lot of deals are getting 20%+ pops on announcement, vs an set downside via redemption. Further short term, you've got obvious as F bankruptcy candidates getting lifelines they dont deserve, but still without any shot ever, of getting out of the death spiral. I've previously mentioned some names, almost all of them filed, including CBL last night. You've also got froth inspired pump and dumps popping up; and IPO's going batshit again. All this made possible by the current goldilocks scenario enabled by everything brought about by the virus.

 

Longer term is pretty easy, IMO. Again, pick your preference. Berkshire is probably as cheap as it's been in a very long time. You've got REIT's trading a historic spreads to treasuries while still providing protection against possible inflation. You've got stuff in specific locations or sectors, that is purely time arbitrage. IE NYC RE or sports and entertainment. This stuff largely de-risked by the fact that herd immunity or vaccine, 2 years from now this will be over and we've already gotten proof through the rabid behavior of society upon reopening; people are not scarred and certainly won't refuse to resume their normal course lives once this is all over. The only question to ask oneself is how much volatility can you handle over the next 12-24 months? The risk of course is watch the balance sheets.

 

But, strictly in terms of being a market participant, there really is something for everyone in this type of market. As a whole, I certainly think its overvalued. But I dont think continuing to hope the virus pops the bubble is fruitful. Pick which Dave you want to be. You can be like Einhorn, and despite continuously being wrong, continue to think you are right and that eventually you'll be proven so; or you can be like Tepper and cautiously reevaluate the variable until you find which ones are driving the correlation. Once you find the strings that move the puppet, you can plan much more accordingly. Rather than waiting for 100k corona cases a day and then going "ZOMG! the market is so overvalued and people are dying"....

 

EDIT: was just reminded of another prosperous strategy some board members have made money on of late, the "Quote Graham but buy RobinHood" strategy. Buy TSLA, PTON, HTZ, NKLA!

[Spekulatius]

If, I am drinking and my judgement is impaired, I get behind the wheel and accidentlly kill someone I will be charged with manslaughter.

 

If I make a conscious, unimpaired decision to refuse to wear a mask and accidently give someone the Coronavirus who later dies, should I not be charged with manslaughter?

It's an interesting point. I've thought about this in the past because it kinda works like that with HIV. I'm not sure how it will shake out. But I am sure sooner rather than later this issue will come before the courts.

 

It’s a bigger issue for business than for individuals, imo. Imagine an outbreak in a large office building etc. FWIW, I wonder how these meat processor for example deal with this. They likely get sued already.

[cwericb]

If, I am drinking and my judgement is impaired, I get behind the wheel and accidentlly kill someone I will be charged with manslaughter.

 

If I make a conscious, unimpaired decision to refuse to wear a mask and accidently give someone the Coronavirus who later dies, should I not be charged with manslaughter?

It's an interesting point. I've thought about this in the past because it kinda works like that with HIV. I'm not sure how it will shake out. But I am sure sooner rather than later this issue will come before the courts.

 

It’s a bigger issue for business than for individuals, imo. Imagine an outbreak in a large office building etc. FWIW, I wonder how these meat processor for example deal with this. They likely get sued already.

 

Yes one would think that once things settle down, the lawyers will get busy.

 

The problem with criminal charges, of course, is proving the case. However, in areas where masks are mandatory you will have a certain number of twits who will still refuse to wear them, as well as those who will object to any bylaw on the grounds of their perception of "civil rights".  If it were publicized that not wearing a mask could possibly kill people and potentially lead to serious criminal charges, it might persuade more to understand the seriousness of wearing masks.

 

[Gregmal]

If, I am drinking and my judgement is impaired, I get behind the wheel and accidentlly kill someone I will be charged with manslaughter.

 

If I make a conscious, unimpaired decision to refuse to wear a mask and accidently give someone the Coronavirus who later dies, should I not be charged with manslaughter?

It's an interesting point. I've thought about this in the past because it kinda works like that with HIV. I'm not sure how it will shake out. But I am sure sooner rather than later this issue will come before the courts.

 

It’s a bigger issue for business than for individuals, imo. Imagine an outbreak in a large office building etc. FWIW, I wonder how these meat processor for example deal with this. They likely get sued already.

 

Yes one would think that once things settle down, the lawyers will get busy.

 

The problem with criminal charges, of course, is proving the case. However, in areas where masks are mandatory you will have a certain number of twits who will still refuse to wear them, as well as those who will object to any bylaw on the grounds of their perception of "civil rights".  If it were publicized that not wearing a mask could possibly kill people and potentially lead to serious criminal charges, it might persuade more to understand the seriousness of wearing masks.

 

A local developer I shoot the shit with on occasion was boasting to me, "the store said I must wear a mask, so I put it on my elbow and walked into the store. When their guy stopped me, he said I had to wear a mask and I told him I was, and that nothing anywhere said "where" I had to wear it. That I had a medical condition, and if he insisted I put it over my face, to show a law that said specifically that, and provide his name, company position, and contact details in the event he ended up having breathing issues as a result of the mask, so he could sue." The employee(who was just doing his job) let him continue on through the store, with the mask on his elbow.

 

Another person I saw at Home Depot had a Halloween mask on, with a giant, open, breathing hole directly around the lower half of the face.

 

America isn't China. If you want to force people to do stuff, you have to really go to great lengths to make it happen, and even still, will face opposition along the way, from the lawyers just looking to make a buck, down to the stubborn everyday citizen. A lot of people dont really understand this. The best you can do as an individual is simply to take the proper precuations for you and your loved ones. Fuck everyone else.

[samwise]

The best you can do as an individual is simply to take the proper precuations for you and your loved ones. Fuck everyone else.

 

Yes. You succinctly captured the American spirit of individuality.

 

As an outsider I had never realized it quite as starkly before this virus revealed it.

[DooDiligence]

The best you can do as an individual is simply to take the proper precuations for you and your loved ones. Fuck everyone else.

 

Yes. You succinctly captured the American spirit of individuality.

 

As an outsider I had never realized it quite as starkly before this virus revealed it.

 

A huge swath of us should not be tarred with the same brush.

 

It's mostly folks who've bought in to the nonsense that gets fed to them by mass media talking heads & political demagogues These same people will bad mouth youngsters & minorities / foreigners for being rebellious non-conformists & yet fail to recognize the same ignorant behavior in themselves.

[rb]

A local developer I shoot the shit with on occasion was boasting to me, "the store said I must wear a mask, so I put it on my elbow and walked into the store. When their guy stopped me, he said I had to wear a mask and I told him I was, and that nothing anywhere said "where" I had to wear it. That I had a medical condition, and if he insisted I put it over my face, to show a law that said specifically that, and provide his name, company position, and contact details in the event he ended up having breathing issues as a result of the mask, so he could sue." The employee(who was just doing his job) let him continue on through the store, with the mask on his elbow.

 

Another person I saw at Home Depot had a Halloween mask on, with a giant, open, breathing hole directly around the lower half of the face.

 

America isn't China. If you want to force people to do stuff, you have to really go to great lengths to make it happen, and even still, will face opposition along the way, from the lawyers just looking to make a buck, down to the stubborn everyday citizen. A lot of people dont really understand this. The best you can do as an individual is simply to take the proper precuations for you and your loved ones. Fuck everyone else.

Well your buddy sounds like he's a twat. Businesses sure have an option they could have denied him entry. He probably just happened upon one of the more "soft" employees and got away with it.

 

This isn't an America vs. China thing either. All countries have twats. But I guess some more than others.

[Liberty]

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa923/5868545

 

Later statewide emergency declarations and school closure were associated with higher Covid-19 mortality. Each day of delay increased mortality risk 5 to 6%.

[Jurgis]

The best you can do as an individual is simply to take the proper precuations for you and your loved ones. Fuck everyone else.

 

Yes. You succinctly captured the American spirit of individuality.

 

As an outsider I had never realized it quite as starkly before this virus revealed it.

 

Not all Americans are assholes. Although CoBF has a share of them.

[Gregmal]

A local developer I shoot the shit with on occasion was boasting to me, "the store said I must wear a mask, so I put it on my elbow and walked into the store. When their guy stopped me, he said I had to wear a mask and I told him I was, and that nothing anywhere said "where" I had to wear it. That I had a medical condition, and if he insisted I put it over my face, to show a law that said specifically that, and provide his name, company position, and contact details in the event he ended up having breathing issues as a result of the mask, so he could sue." The employee(who was just doing his job) let him continue on through the store, with the mask on his elbow.

 

Another person I saw at Home Depot had a Halloween mask on, with a giant, open, breathing hole directly around the lower half of the face.

 

America isn't China. If you want to force people to do stuff, you have to really go to great lengths to make it happen, and even still, will face opposition along the way, from the lawyers just looking to make a buck, down to the stubborn everyday citizen. A lot of people dont really understand this. The best you can do as an individual is simply to take the proper precuations for you and your loved ones. Fuck everyone else.

Well your buddy sounds like he's a twat. Businesses sure have an option they could have denied him entry. He probably just happened upon one of the more "soft" employees and got away with it.

 

This isn't an America vs. China thing either. All countries have twats. But I guess some more than others.

 

Well, the store in reference was Wal-Mart, so if thats how they handle it Im not sure anyone else will fare much better. And I'd reclassify "buddy" and "acquaintance". We're looking at repurposing and getting entitlements for a parcel that can ideally be flipped into a QSR with a NNN lease. So I've got at least a couple reasons to look beyond someone's way of dealing with one issue in THEIR(not my) life. And yes, it isn't an America vs China(or any other country thing), which is again why its puzzling when people take(as DooDiligence brought up) MSM headlines and try to make apples to oranges comparisons of why "this country does this, and we do that!".... Context is always important.

 

@DooDiligence

 

I dont really get what your deal is. You have continuously chimed in with comments of the same ilk you supposedly object to others making. Not just with me, but with a handful of other posters on this thread and others, you lose your mind and go off the rails whenever someone presents a viewpoint different than yours, often devolving into name calling and labelling or painting them "with the same brush"...rather than engage in anything useful. Outside of the obvious lack of tolerance, the fragility of mindset just seems counter productive to what one would seek out on a forum like this. While some do choose to employ the "ostrich in the sand" approach, a good rule of thumb for anything in life is to:

 

1) know the terrain

2) know the players

3) know the incentives

 

With this in mind, it is hard to fathom how some wallow through everyday life in America with pie in the sky ambitions and generally benevolent and ignorant interpretations of what can possibly come their way. Sure, there are people who wear masks, follow the law, donate to charities, give the shirt off their back to others, etc...but there are also predatory folks who lie, cheat, steal, and well, may not wear masks. I cant imagine being the individual who goes out and loses my shit because "AHHHHH, TROLL!. NOT WEARING FACEMASKS! WTF!!! AH JUST LIKE TWITTER!". Rather you go out and expect the worst while hoping for the best and when you encountering things within the realm of those possibilities, deal with them from a position of strength because you thought ahead and have a plan. I'm spending the week at a shore property. 3rd floor. Everyone is lining up for the elevator. I personally think the elevator is as dangerous a place for virus spread as any, and, along with my family, willingly take the stairs.... Go apply that thought process to everything in life and things won't be so daunting for you. So sure, "not all (insert name) are jerks/assholes/whatever", thats definitely true. But being the fool who walks through life naive to realities and risks because in his head lies some vision of "how it should be", is probably a recipe for disaster. But I wouldn't know. I dont live like that. And my life is pretty good.

[Liberty]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-response-failure-leadership.html

[Gregmal]

Exhibit A

 

NY, Cuomo "tries" to be responsible(without giving a personal opinion on whether I agree or disagree with this policy"....

 

https://nypost.com/2020/07/17/pub-sells-cuomo-chips-to-comply-with-buy-food-with-booze-rule/

 

Cuomo Chips, to skirt bar restrictions. Welcome to America. AH Troll! Dont paint all of us with the same brush! #Notallassholes As long as there are some assholes, most policies and well intentioned actions become less potent.

[Dalal.Holdings]

The best you can do as an individual is simply to take the proper precuations for you and your loved ones. Fuck everyone else.

 

Yes. You succinctly captured the American spirit of individuality.

 

As an outsider I had never realized it quite as starkly before this virus revealed it.

 

Not all Americans are assholes. Although CoBF has a share of them.

 

;D

 

We also have a tendency to put our assholes in power because the assholes want a leader who is "just like them". It will be the same issue for global warming, coal emissions, EPA, etc. All about me, me, me with some folk. Screw the greater good and obligation to society.

 

BTW, anyone else remember that chapter in Graham where he said to always trust the feelings of Mr. Market? Mr. Market seems to be saying the virus is no big deal, so I guess we should believe it too is what I am hearing. After all, we should project 22% corporate tax rates, massive deficits, and booming Fed balance sheet in perpetuity. Surely there will be no real costs borne by shareholders for this crisis! And that old nut Buffett spent the annual meeting covering the Depression and other crises!

 

Banks are near lows, but techies are ways up! All is well per the averages! The next 10 years should provide ample returns for all! ;D

 

After all, whoever said this was clueless:

You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.

 

The party is on until more responsible leaders come into power and throw cold water on the celebration...when everyone realizes that someone has to pay for all this mess. Then it will be all about blaming those responsible leaders involved in cleanup than the truly irresponsible leader who got us into this mess...looking forward to it!

 

 

[Investor20]

South Korean Guidelines on how to conduct in-person meetings. Note how the masks are applicable with relation to ventilation & distancing:

 

Follow these guidelines when conducting in-person meetings:

 

Inform attendees that they should refrain from attending the meeting if they traveled abroad in the last 14 days or have shown symptoms such as fever, respiratory distress (sore throat, coughing, difficulty breathing, headache, muscle pain, fatigue).

 

The meeting host should check for respiratory abnormalities or fever and make sure those with symptoms don’t attend.

 

Refrain from physical contact, such as shaking hands, before or after the meeting.

 

Make sure hand sanitizer is readily available in the conference room so attendees can use it frequently.

 

Provide a well-ventilated, spacious area for the meeting and be sure to ventilate before the meeting.

 

Take a break every hour to ventilate the space by opening doors and windows.  Maintain a distance of two meters between every attendee (minimum one meter). If this cannot be met, refrain from meeting in person. If the meeting is still necessary, ensure every attendee wears a mask, even when speaking.

 

Masks are up to personal discretion if ventilation and distancing can be followed.

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/south-korea-office-coronavirus-covid19-work-enviroment/

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

Related to Greg's last post :

 

The Conversation [July 13^th 2020] : Your coping and resilience strategies might need to shift as the COVID-19 crisis continues.

[Liberty]

States w/ highest % positive COVID-19 (7-day avg)

1) Arizona: 22.6%.

2) Florida: 18.1%.

3) Texas: 17.9%

4) Nevada: 17.8%.

5) Alabama: 17.7%

6) South Carolina: 17.5%

7) Idaho: 16.7%

8) Georgia: 15.7%

9) Mississippi: 15.1%

10) Arkansas: 11.8%

 

 

I think Europe has low single digit positive rates... what a tragedy, how many unnecessary deaths and how much unnecessary economic damage...

[rb]

South Korean Guidelines on how to conduct in-person meetings. Note how the masks are applicable with relation to ventilation & distancing:

 

Follow these guidelines when conducting in-person meetings:

 

[..........]

 

Take a break every hour to ventilate the space by opening doors and windows.  Maintain a distance of two meters between every attendee (minimum one meter). If this cannot be met, refrain from meeting in person. If the meeting is still necessary, ensure every attendee wears a mask, even when speaking.

 

Masks are up to personal discretion if ventilation and distancing can be followed.

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/south-korea-office-coronavirus-covid19-work-enviroment/

It is good advice. But given that in most office buildings in North America you cannot open windows that's not really that applicable.

 

Cover my ass here: I don't know what's the window situation in those low rise campuses in silicon valley.

[John Hjorth]

The really bad news of today :

 

Reuters [July 18^th 2020] : Rouhani says 25 million Iranians may have been infected with coronavirus.

[Spekulatius]

South Korean Guidelines on how to conduct in-person meetings. Note how the masks are applicable with relation to ventilation & distancing:

 

Follow these guidelines when conducting in-person meetings:

 

[..........]

 

Take a break every hour to ventilate the space by opening doors and windows.  Maintain a distance of two meters between every attendee (minimum one meter). If this cannot be met, refrain from meeting in person. If the meeting is still necessary, ensure every attendee wears a mask, even when speaking.

 

Masks are up to personal discretion if ventilation and distancing can be followed.

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/south-korea-office-coronavirus-covid19-work-enviroment/

It is good advice. But given that in most office buildings in North America you cannot open windows that's not really that applicable.

 

Cover my ass here: I don't know what's the window situation in those low rise campuses in silicon valley.

 

The company I work for has all person -person meetings cancelled indefinitely. Conference rooms have been closed since March. We do the meetings online now, but there are far less meetings now. I can’t say I miss any of this.

 

Edit : Ouch - 5k posts. I clearly spent too much time here.

[Gregmal]

https://abc7ny.com/queens-gathering-no-face-masks-social-distancing-crowds/6323410/

 

Yea though, blame the government! #ostrichstyle!

 

This in NYC nonetheless, with probably 85% of this district voting blue.

 

Its amazing to me that many continue to think that in the US, the best results will be produced because of government policy(at any level). The best course of action for everyone, is being personally alert and aware, and making decisions that are in YOUR best interest. Risk/reward doesnt just apply to the markets.

[StubbleJumper]

https://abc7ny.com/queens-gathering-no-face-masks-social-distancing-crowds/6323410/

 

Yea though, blame the government! #ostrichstyle!

 

This in NYC nonetheless, with probably 85% of this district voting blue.

 

Its amazing to me that many continue to think that in the US, the best results will be produced because of government policy(at any level). The best course of action for everyone, is being personally alert and aware, and making decisions that are in YOUR best interest. Risk/reward doesnt just apply to the markets.

 

 

For both masks and a potential vaccination, the "best interest" for certain demographic groups might be to simply abstain.  If you are in the 25 year-old group, the mask is merely a nuisance for you and only really serves to protect others from virus-laden droplets that you might unknowingly spread.  It might end up being the same deal with a vaccine, where a 25 year-old might rightly conclude that it doesn't offer much value on a personal level but only serves to protect others by furthering herd immunity. 

 

Some people in the US are behaving irrationally, while some might be behaving in quite a rational, predictable manner.  What might be needed is a cultural change to encourage low-risk people to view masks and a potential vaccination as a duty rather than a nuisance.

 

 

SJ

[Guest cherzeca]

talked to my pulmonologist critical care buddy.  infection numbers are inflated because to get released from his state's hospitals a patient needs to demonstrate 2 negative tests within 24 hours, and each positive test is recorded as a new case. so an individual patient can report as multiple cases each time a test comes back positive.

 

stupid is as stupid does

[samwise]

The best you can do as an individual is simply to take the proper precuations for you and your loved ones. Fuck everyone else.

 

Yes. You succinctly captured the American spirit of individuality.

 

As an outsider I had never realized it quite as starkly before this virus revealed it.

 

Not all Americans are assholes. Although CoBF has a share of them.

 

Apologies. Didn’t mean to stereotype and tar individuals or a country. No name calling intended.

 

Even as an outsider the US is where a lot of my investments are, so the recent surge is worrying( though I haven’t sold anything). The consumer rebound could slow if they think its better for them to stay home. Doesn’t require a shutdown, just a change in risk perception. That will increase the cost to companies and the economy.

 

Definitely my perception of the US as a country has changed, even if I cannot really explain it.  It isn’t just me. See for example this unkind FT article: https://www.ft.com/content/95b9ee10-11be-4530-beb3-42b3ea7b5db0

 

It links this episode to the 1918 anti-mask league and back to the pioneer spirit, making all of this part of American tradition. Of course their words are hurtful : “the freedom to be stupid”. Greg seemed to say the same thing in his usual direct style.

 

The anti mask league of ~100 years ago: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Mask_League_of_San_Francisco

https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-sanfrancisco.html#

 

Trump wasn’t even born then. Nor was CNN FOX. But people were claiming that the law was unconstitutional even then. Makes one think there is a deeper link. I am not using this for any investment decisions though. Just seemed interesting.

[cwericb]

" Definitely my perception of the US as a country has changed, even if I cannot really explain it. "

 

Ditto. I have always been a fan of the US and have defended it many times to people who have not felt the same way. Gven that the President is rude, lies like a rug and is obviously a bully, this reflects back on those who tolerate him. This 'anti-mask' and 'you can't tell me what to do' attitude can only be described as very, very selfish - 'I don't care who I give the virus to - you can't tell me to wear a mask'.

 

The US has lost a lot of respect around the world and is unlikely to regain that for some time. Unfortunately, it seems that many do not care. Hopefully someone will be able to make America great again.