Coronavirus

[Castanza]

I talked with my brother in-law today. He lives in Ontario and said that they haven’t been required to wear a mask up until just two weeks ago.

[rb]

I talked with my brother in-law today. He lives in Ontario and said that they haven’t been required to wear a mask up until just two weeks ago.

Bullshit! You pretty much have to wear a mask anywhere you go in Ontario for a long time.

[Cigarbutt]

I talked with my brother in-law today. He lives in Ontario and said that they haven’t been required to wear a mask up until just two weeks ago.

Bullshit! You pretty much have to wear a mask anywhere you go in Ontario for a long time.

@Castanza

The issue of masks (or muzzle, depending on perspective) is not as divisive on this side of the border but you seem to know how to stir the pot.

If interested, the Globe and Mail recently had a nice summary on the State of the Nation on masks, with international comparisons.

The Globe and Mail is subscription-based but free registration will easily take you to this COVID-related article as it seems the paper feels it's in the general public interest.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-masks-to-combat-covid-19-which-countries-are-embracing-requiring-or/#comments

[Liberty]

It's like living inside The Onion:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/trump-urges-americans-to-stop-politicizing-the-coronavirus-blames-china.html

 

"Trump urges Americans to stop politicizing the coronavirus, blames China"

 

???

 

"“We must stop politicizing the virus, but instead must be united in our condemnation of how this virus came to America, how this virus came to the world,” Trump said during a White House press briefing on the coronavirus pandemic. “And we’re going to figure it out and we’re going to find out and we’re very angry about it. The virus came from China. It’s China’s fault."

[muscleman]

Still waiting on all the hospitals going over capacity in Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas as well. Two more weeks I guess?

 

How right you are!

 

10,000 or so (I just eyeballed it) people died from COVID in Az & Tx over the past few weeks.

 

Morgue capacity is probably more necessary at this point.

 

Indeed. Worse than NY for all them dumb red states didnt exactly play out. In fact, FL, GA, AZ, and TX have less deaths combined, than just NY. The relevant question right now for NY/NJ and those states....if you won't allow businesses to open in counties seeing less than 100 cases PER WEEK, well, when will they be able to open? And if you are forcing them shut(yea imagine that? A filthy rich Goldman banker putting mom and pop shops out of biz in order to bolster his political ambitions?) why do you continue to charge them property taxes? And at the "corporate rate" at that? Disgusting.

 

It is pretty obvious at this moment what's going on with these blue states. They wanted to choke the economy as badly as possible so these businesses go bankrupt and then they can blame Trump for the poor management of the virus.

 

Back in May, it was these blue states that had more violent protests than anyone, as if the virus does not exist. Then the 2nd wave came and it is all Trump's fault.

Oh, by the way, the 2nd wave is all caused by Trump's stupid decision to reopen business, with people wearing masks, and 6 ft social distancing, it must have caused more spread than the protests where people had no masks and no social distancing.

 

People are blaming FL, TX, GA for being stupid to reopen and now having a lot of cases. I think there is a high probability that in 20 days they'll see dramatic drop in cases even with GA's school reopening because herd immunity has been achieved. Then residents in NJ and NY will be pissed that they still cannot reopen.

[gary17]

all the stuff i read suggest herd immunity is long ways off.  even in new york now.  heard immunity needs 60% plus infected. 

[Castanza]

I talked with my brother in-law today. He lives in Ontario and said that they haven’t been required to wear a mask up until just two weeks ago.

Bullshit! You pretty much have to wear a mask anywhere you go in Ontario for a long time.

 

I was a Skeptical too. But they do live in a small town so maybe the guidelines there are different. At the very least I figured Toronto and big cities would have mandates.

[muscleman]

all the stuff i read suggest herd immunity is long ways off.  even in new york now.  heard immunity needs 60% plus infected.

 

You can read the prior posts about T cell immunity that already exist in 40-60% of population, so 20% infection of COVID should get us to herd immunity.

But let's just say this: If GA reopens schools and no one seems to be wearing masks in the schools, and if the new daily cases continues to drop into the end of August, is that proof that daily cases of 4-5k per 10M population for a month is sufficient to get us to herd immunity? NY, NJ, FL, TX, GA all have reached this ratio. CA and WA are still way off.

 

Another data point supporting this view is that Iran recently said they probably have 24M people infected. They have 100M people in total. If 24M people are infected, it only takes 1-2 weeks before reaching all 100M people, but it seems to have stopped there.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

all the stuff i read suggest herd immunity is long ways off.  even in new york now.  heard immunity needs 60% plus infected.

 

You can read the prior posts about T cell immunity that already exist in 40-60% of population, so 20% infection of COVID should get us to herd immunity.

But let's just say this: If GA reopens schools and no one seems to be wearing masks in the schools, and if the new daily cases continues to drop into the end of August, is that proof that daily cases of 4-5k per 10M population for a month is sufficient to get us to herd immunity? NY, NJ, FL, TX, GA all have reached this ratio. CA and WA are still way off.

 

Another data point supporting this view is that Iran recently said they probably have 24M people infected. They have 100M people in total. If 24M people are infected, it only takes 1-2 weeks before reaching all 100M people, but it seems to have stopped there.

 

How do you conclude that it takes only 1-2 weeks to get from 24m to 100M people without knowing the Ro? Also, how does Iran come up with the 24M number for the total cumulative infected?

 

I guess I am skeptical of anything from Iran.

[LC]

It is pretty obvious at this moment what's going on with these blue states. They wanted to choke the economy as badly as possible so these businesses go bankrupt and then they can blame Trump for the poor management of the virus.

 

That's quite the claim. For something so obvious, I'm sure you'll have no trouble providing us with the evidence.

 

People are blaming FL, TX, GA for being stupid to reopen and now having a lot of cases. I think there is a high probability that in 20 days they'll see dramatic drop in cases even with GA's school reopening because herd immunity has been achieved.

 

Perhaps, but at what cost? Texans have been travelling to neighboring states over those weeks to escape such onerous requirements. Somewhere between 5-10k  Texans died from COVID in the past few weeks. I guess these are necessary sacrifices to the COVID-god, so the rest of Texas can drink in air-conditioned bars without wearing a face mask. 

[gary17]

I am more on the camp that the virus may have mutated to a weaker form

and also the medical community is getting better at treating this. but i am no doctor.  just my guess...

this is also the summer time when respiratory illness tends to fade away.  let’s see what the fall brings.

 

whatever that cause - even if it’s herd immunity- i hope the worst is behind us.

[StubbleJumper]

all the stuff i read suggest herd immunity is long ways off.  even in new york now.  heard immunity needs 60% plus infected.

 

 

No, herd immunity might require that 60%, more or less, be *resistant* to the virus.  That can be achieved through antibodies acquired by virtue of having already had the virus, antibodies from a vaccine, or resistance from having already had a different coronavirus.  So, from what I can see, there have been ~5m cases of covid that have been officially laboratory diagnosed, and seroprevalence studies have suggested that 10x or 15x the number of official cases generally show the presence of antibodies.  So, are we at 50m or 75m in the US with antibodies today?  That would be 15% or 20% of the national population that might have antibodies.

 

Strangely, at the national level, the cases appear to be on the down-swing.  Anybody got any theories why the cases were 70k+/day a couple of weeks ago and ~50k/day today?  That would be what level of R0?  Did people suddenly adopt social distancing strategies, or is this peak virus?  If it is actually peak virus, there would be a long way to go on the downside of the curve before the virus disappears, but the apocalyptic assertions seem to be on hold.

 

 

SJ

[gary17]

I do believe having prior coronavirus exposure may have helped - explains why some are asymptomatic.  from the limited biology / biochemistry i took, it's all about being able to establish that bond to infect.  so if there are memory T cells that can neutralize the virus, even if not efficiently , but perhaps with low viral load that's enough.

 

i am hoping herd immunity theory is right; but from everything i've read including studies done in China / Italy  etc - they are no where near herd immunity.  again, i am hoping i'm wrong!

 

 

[Gregmal]

It is pretty obvious at this moment what's going on with these blue states. They wanted to choke the economy as badly as possible so these businesses go bankrupt and then they can blame Trump for the poor management of the virus.

 

That's quite the claim. For something so obvious, I'm sure you'll have no trouble providing us with the evidence.

 

People are blaming FL, TX, GA for being stupid to reopen and now having a lot of cases. I think there is a high probability that in 20 days they'll see dramatic drop in cases even with GA's school reopening because herd immunity has been achieved.

 

Perhaps, but at what cost? Texans have been travelling to neighboring states over those weeks to escape such onerous requirements. Somewhere between 5-10k  Texans died from COVID in the past few weeks. I guess these are necessary sacrifices to the COVID-god, so the rest of Texas can drink in air-conditioned bars without wearing a face mask.

 

There have been 8K TOTAL covid related deaths in TX since this whole thing started. That is simply not true.

[Gregmal]

https://nypost.com/2020/08/10/thousands-gather-for-wild-rave-at-prospect-park-in-brooklyn/

 

Social distancing in NY. But we still cant get an indoor restaurant reservation...

[Cigarbutt]

-On the Texas data

The Houston Chronicle reports updated (interactive) data from government sources for mortality presently attributed to CV in the State of Texas.

The graph is starting to show leveling off (very recent but as expected from objective assessment of data under the circumstances) but the graph has two areas with different slopes. The first slope ends around the 6th of July (deaths listed at 2683) and the second slope (much more vertical) which starts in early July and ends pretty much now shows (as of yesterday) 8926 deaths.

An interesting part (combining various pieces of evidence and analysis such as the link provided below and the recently published piece in the New York Times (dealing with the gap between excess mortality what is reported now versus what is)), is that Texas was exceptional in the delay before widespread testing (the virus spread had built a secure advance) was applied. There is very strong evidence that, early on, Texas was an outlier, compared to the rest of the US, in the gap between excess mortality overall and allocation to CV cases. So, this gap has likely improved over time with more testing and the slow realization of what was coming but it's reasonable to suggest that the official death rate that will eventually be recognized for today (as the gap between CV deaths and excess mortality is closed to fit reality) in Texas will be much higher, perhaps about 100% higher.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

 

-On herd immunity

The national media in my country has started a section of "fact check" to, in part, counteract the spread of false or misleading information. Good reporting sources such as Reuters have started to do the same. Here's a link that does a good job describing where we're at, in terms of evidence. There is some talk about nonspecific cell-mediated immunity and that obviously plays a role (to be defined) but countries that have, so far, 'decided' to rely on that part have had to report much higher mortality, morbidity and complications.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-herd-immunity-positive-rate/fact-check-rate-of-positive-covid-19-tests-doesnt-show-us-has-reached-herd-immunity-idUSKCN25327U

[orthopa]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/new-zealand-reports-first-local-covid-19-cases-in-102-days

 

The virus seems to always win until a vaccine is developed. 102 days no cases within NZ and now 4 in a household? Will be interesting to see what the circumstances are but with a 14 day quarantine at the border it appears the virus has been circulating in those that are asymptomatic or not going to be tested.

[Liberty]

 

Case Fatality Rate:

NZ 1.4%

US 3.2%

 

Deaths per 100K POP

NZ 0.45

US 49.8

 

GDP Q2 2020 Growth

NZ -1.6%

US -32.9%

[orthopa]

 

Case Fatality Rate:

NZ 1.4%

US 3.2%

 

Deaths per 100K POP

NZ 0.45

US 49.8

 

GDP Q2 2020 Growth

NZ -1.6%

US -32.9%

 

Do the demographics, land mass size, population, population density etc too.

 

NYC has a population density of 38,424 per square kilometer

NZ has a population density of 15 people per square kilometer.

 

Complete waste of time even looking at this comparison. Why dont you post a twitter link on the data from Antarctica to really hammer the point home.

[Gregmal]

 

Case Fatality Rate:

NZ 1.4%

US 3.2%

 

Deaths per 100K POP

NZ 0.45

US 49.8

 

GDP Q2 2020 Growth

NZ -1.6%

US -32.9%

 

Do the demographics, land mass size, population, population density etc too.

 

NYC has a population density of 38,424 per square kilometer

NZ has a population density of 15 people per square kilometer.

 

Why dont you post a twitter link on the data from Antarctica to really hammer the point home.

 

This is all thats left at this point, for the boys who cried wolf.

[Jurgis]

Covid predictions for GoodJudgement:

 

https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1389

 

(Scroll for other questions or go through: https://goodjudgment.com/covidrecovery/

[LC]

It is pretty obvious at this moment what's going on with these blue states. They wanted to choke the economy as badly as possible so these businesses go bankrupt and then they can blame Trump for the poor management of the virus.

 

That's quite the claim. For something so obvious, I'm sure you'll have no trouble providing us with the evidence.

 

People are blaming FL, TX, GA for being stupid to reopen and now having a lot of cases. I think there is a high probability that in 20 days they'll see dramatic drop in cases even with GA's school reopening because herd immunity has been achieved.

 

Perhaps, but at what cost? Texans have been travelling to neighboring states over those weeks to escape such onerous requirements. Somewhere between 5-10k  Texans died from COVID in the past few weeks. I guess these are necessary sacrifices to the COVID-god, so the rest of Texas can drink in air-conditioned bars without wearing a face mask.

 

There have been 8K TOTAL covid related deaths in TX since this whole thing started. That is simply not true.

 

What was the "law" that it requires more effort to refute bullshit than it is to generate it?

 

Here is what I said:

 

Somewhere between 5-10k  Texans died from COVID in the past few weeks

 

Here is the data:

 

Note: As of today, the most recent weekly excess mortality report for Texas is dated July 25.

 

WE 7/25: 1316 excess deaths (this week's reporting is still in progress i.e. the number here is under-reported)

WE 7/18: 2274 excess deaths

WE 7/11: 1948 excess deaths

WE 7/4: 1227 excess deaths

 

Total for July is about 7k COVID deaths.

[Gregmal]

OK, fair enough. I took "few weeks" and didnt include early July as thats over a month ago. But this still has what to do with my original point? How does this compare to what NY/NJ numbers looked like during the peak?

[muscleman]

My friend in Wuhan said this vaccine is already being widely used without phase 3 data. It’s phase 2 data is really good though.

Same thing happening in Russia.

[Gregmal]

The China and Russia vaccines will probably be vilified by the left as an election interference serum....