Coronavirus

[Castanza]

Ah yes, the "he downplayed the virus and died from it" subject. If I downplay the risks of driving my car, and then die in an auto accident, it doesnt change the reality of how safe/unsafe driving is.

 

You have inadvertently clarified the major fault lines in this thread.

 

If you downplay the risks of driving, it absolutely changes the risk level of driving. You drive a little faster, run yellow lights, text, drive after a beer. And risk doesn't rise linearly, so small behaviour changes dramatically increase your risk. And it doesn't just change your risk, you increase the risk for everyone else on the road.

 

the estimated risk of a pedestrian being killed is approximately 9% if they are hit at a speed of 30 mph. The risk at an impact speed of 40 mph is much higher, at approximately 50%.

 

The same thing happens when you downplay the risk of a pandemic.

 

Who do insurance companies target with high premiums for driving? Young teenage males and elderly drivers. Targeted solutions for higher risk individuals.

[Cigarbutt]

Cigarbutt,

I hope that you've "cooled down" - a bit - on a [hopefully] good night's sleep, while at the same time, you never "hit the roof" or "go ballistic" based on something posted here on CoBF [, to the contrary to me, - now and then].

i slept like a baby, thanks for asking. This AM, i walked with my youngest daughter on her way to the bus corner (first day of school for many here). It's really hard to be mad at life when seeing what she is becoming. FWIW, education authorities here (IMO) are navigating the return to school turbulence based on a reasonable course and a few compromises. It seems that they are using 'foreign' inputs for vicarious learning:

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/01/898184566/how-denmark-is-thinking-about-reopening-schools-safely

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/switzerland-denmark-school-reopening-plan-covid-19-1.5683975

The importance of education can't be stressed enough. To learn the basics, ways to think, learn how to learn, rights and responsibilities of citizenship etc

 

About the intensity of last night's exchanges, it happens rarely but, when it happens, my level of interest (for a person, an investment opportunity, a topic) can reach unusual levels and the coronavirus topic has been a relative focus lately. Hopefully, the exchanges are helpful for somebody. Helping others to help themselves tends to be productive while simply helping enters a territory of diminishing returns. And of course there's those that can't be helped.

[KCLarkin]

This is a pretty interesting theory:

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

 

If confirmed, it opens the door to many more potential treatments. Vitamin D could also potentially partially explain the divergence between cases and deaths we've seen this summer.

[DooDiligence]

Cigarbutt,

I hope that you've "cooled down" - a bit - on a [hopefully] good night's sleep, while at the same time, you never "hit the roof" or "go ballistic" based on something posted here on CoBF [, to the contrary to me, - now and then].

i slept like a baby, thanks for asking. This AM, i walked with my youngest daughter on her way to the bus corner (first day of school for many here). It's really hard to be mad at life when seeing what she is becoming. FWIW, education authorities here (IMO) are navigating the return to school turbulence based on a reasonable course and a few compromises. It seems that they are using 'foreign' inputs for vicarious learning:

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/01/898184566/how-denmark-is-thinking-about-reopening-schools-safely

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/switzerland-denmark-school-reopening-plan-covid-19-1.5683975

The importance of education can't be stressed enough. To learn the basics, ways to think, learn how to learn, rights and responsibilities of citizenship etc

 

About the intensity of last night's exchanges, it happens rarely but, when it happens, my level of interest (for a person, an investment opportunity, a topic) can reach unusual levels and the coronavirus topic has been a relative focus lately. Hopefully, the exchanges are helpful for somebody. Helping others to help themselves tends to be productive while simply helping enters a territory of diminishing returns. And of course there's those that can't be helped.

 

No good deed goes unpunished.

 

This statement made no sense to me when I was young.

[Read the Footnotes]

Ah yes, the "he downplayed the virus and died from it" subject. If I downplay the risks of driving my car, and then die in an auto accident, it doesnt change the reality of how safe/unsafe driving is.

 

You have inadvertently clarified the major fault lines in this thread.

 

If you downplay the risks of driving, it absolutely changes the risk level of driving. You drive a little faster, run yellow lights, text, drive after a beer. And risk doesn't rise linearly, so small behaviour changes dramatically increase your risk. And it doesn't just change your risk, you increase the risk for everyone else on the road.

 

the estimated risk of a pedestrian being killed is approximately 9% if they are hit at a speed of 30 mph. The risk at an impact speed of 40 mph is much higher, at approximately 50%.

 

The same thing happens when you downplay the risk of a pandemic.

Good insights KCLarkin. And relevant not just to dumb think relative to the pandemic and automotive risk, but also dumb think regarding investing.

 

If you think of someone creating an impression of safety and a resulting adjustment in behavior, you are soundly in the field of risk compensation theory and specifically the Pelzman effect is relevant. Usually the Pelzman effect is discussed in the context of actual improvements in safety, not in terms of false claims of efficacy or rank conspiracy theories, but it is certainly a useful framework for thinking about these risks. The Wikipedia page on risk compensation seems pretty good at first glance and includes a paragraph on the Pelzman effect.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensation

[Read the Footnotes]

Cigarbutt,

I hope that you've "cooled down" - a bit - on a [hopefully] good night's sleep, while at the same time, you never "hit the roof" or "go ballistic" based on something posted here on CoBF [, to the contrary to me, - now and then].

i slept like a baby, thanks for asking. This AM, i walked with my youngest daughter on her way to the bus corner (first day of school for many here). It's really hard to be mad at life when seeing what she is becoming. FWIW, education authorities here (IMO) are navigating the return to school turbulence based on a reasonable course and a few compromises. It seems that they are using 'foreign' inputs for vicarious learning:

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/01/898184566/how-denmark-is-thinking-about-reopening-schools-safely

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/switzerland-denmark-school-reopening-plan-covid-19-1.5683975

The importance of education can't be stressed enough. To learn the basics, ways to think, learn how to learn, rights and responsibilities of citizenship etc

 

About the intensity of last night's exchanges, it happens rarely but, when it happens, my level of interest (for a person, an investment opportunity, a topic) can reach unusual levels and the coronavirus topic has been a relative focus lately. Hopefully, the exchanges are helpful for somebody. Helping others to help themselves tends to be productive while simply helping enters a territory of diminishing returns. And of course there's those that can't be helped.

I have to say that the last couple of days this thread has been pretty ridiculous. Cigarbutt was consistently posting helpful well reasoned posts, with citations to reputable information sources, and he was surrounded by . . . let's just say for a while there Cigarbutt was an island to himself.

 

Cigarbutt's post here reminds me of a personal message I received from a friend who lives near Cigarbutt. This person's educational training is as a medical historian focusing on pandemics and the plague. Her assessment was that her region had fared relatively not because the situation was managed perfectly or precisely but because there was just enough competence to get things under control. Her estimation of what had happened in the USA on the other hand was that the situation was entirely preventable and that the federal management stinks of criminal indifference.

 

"Criminal indifference" seems like about the best characterization that I have heard. It's also interesting to note, that this is coming from a resident of what may have been the worst or at a minimum among the worst hit portions of Canada.

[patience_and_focus]

This is a pretty interesting theory:

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

 

If confirmed, it opens the door to many more potential treatments. Vitamin D could also potentially partially explain the divergence between cases and deaths we've seen this summer.

 

This is absolutely fascinating. Scientists, independently of this finding above, are also trying to now create a "lattice-work of models" from so many different streams of data and findings and putting them all together. Impressive that it has happened in less than 1 year of first reporting this virus. A model like this, even with some errors here and there, is going to be invaluable to further improve discovery of new treatments and medical practice.

 

Another example of such a model is in cancer immunotherapy with the understanding of cancer immunity cycle (see https://www.roche.com/research_and_development/what_we_are_working_on/oncology/cancer-immunotherapy/cancer-immunotherapy-cycle.htm). It took at least 30 years to get here for this one.

[Gregmal]

I am scared of flying. I go on an airplane and it does not have an incident. Whew, I got lucky!

 

I am not scared of flying, I go on an airplane and it has an incident. Damn it, I should have listened to the people who were afraid of flying!

[DooDiligence]

If an idiot falls in the woods,

does anyone really give a shit?

[Dalal.Holdings]

I have to say that the last couple of days this thread has been pretty ridiculous. Cigarbutt was consistently posting helpful well reasoned posts, with citations to reputable information sources, and he was surrounded by . . . let's just say for a while there Cigarbutt was an island to himself.

 

Cigarbutt's post here reminds me of a personal message I received from a friend who lives near Cigarbutt. This person's educational training is as a medical historian focusing on pandemics and the plague. Her assessment was that her region had fared relatively not because the situation was managed perfectly or precisely but because there was just enough competence to get things under control. Her estimation of what had happened in the USA on the other hand was that the situation was entirely preventable and that the federal management stinks of criminal indifference.

 

"Criminal indifference" seems like about the best characterization that I have heard. It's also interesting to note, that this is coming from a resident of what may have been the worst or at a minimum among the worst hit portions of Canada.

 

You need to start seeing the bright side of things—this thread has been Made Great Again—just like America...enjoy!

[KCLarkin]

I am scared of flying. I go on an airplane and it does not have an incident. Whew, I got lucky!

 

I am not scared of flying, I go on an airplane and it has an incident. Damn it, I should have listened to the people who were afraid of flying!

 

I'm gonna step out of this conversation. But it is interesting that you are using air travel (~ 1 u.s. death in the last decade on commercial aircraft) as your example.  Corona (~200,000 deaths in the last 6 months). Your perceptions of risk might be skewed!

[Gregmal]

I suppose everything just goes over your head. You personally having been in an auto/aviation related accident has zero bearing on whether your thoughts prior where that it was dangerous or not dangerous. The numbers are the numbers. 200k deaths and 94% have underlying issues. For most people, it isn't a big deal. For certain groups it is. If you are 25 and get it, there isn't much to worry about. If you are 25 and happen to be one of the rare ones to die, that still doesnt change the fact that for that age group, most people will be fine. Older folks are super high risk, and Cain was in his mind 70's. But because he had downplayed it, the left "got him"....Nice!

 

Maybe my perception of risk is skewed, or maybe I'm just not chicken little. Remember, there's many here still claiming the sky is falling. Its been falling since February and frankly, I'm shocked it hasn't hit the ground yet. Whatever are we going to do? Will it ever stop falling?

[Dalal.Holdings]

I'm gonna step out of this conversation.

 

Wise move! MCGA

[Cigarbutt]

The US motor-vehicle fatality risk analogy is interesting. I can supply the methodology used but basically using a simplified residual quality-life loss of years concept, in 2020, the US ‘community’ will have lost a comparable number of quality-life loss of years (number of people who died x number of years lost) comparing Covid and motor-vehicle fatalities (also similar to yearly overdose deaths, although i’m not using this as a comparison point because certain participants in this thread may feel that ‘these’ people don’t deserve to live to start with). So it’s a huge deal in a way, especially if you or the ones close to you are directly involved but, from a population point of view, the US economy has been able to manage this yearly loss over time so it’s clearly not a statistic, in itself, that will significantly impact markets or your portfolios.

 

An interesting aspect is that motor-vehicle fatalities have showed a significant improvement over time across developed countries including the US but the US (reasonably adjusting for differences, geography etc) has ranked relatively low in the peer group and the most important factor (again) is the impact of the perception of civil liberties at the individual level in tension with the notion of road safety for all. In other words, there is a tendency for citizens to downplay (definition of downplay: to make something seem less important or less bad than it really is) the risk of driving meaning that citizens will not have a tendency to show safety behaviors (positive or negative) in correlation to the real risk for themselves or other coincident users of the same roads.

 

Another interesting (and encouraging) aspect is that the safety record has improved, on an absolute basis, to a very significant degree. The improvement has been driven by changes in attitudes and behaviors as well as vehicle safety technology and despite consideration for the described Peltzman effect, it appears clear that various policies that started to be applied in the 60s to this day have contributed to behavioral and attitude change feeding from the government to the individuals and vice versa resulting in a virtuous loop leading to positive cultural change. On a personal level, this is a rather unfortunate development as, for many years, a large driver of my revenues and operating margins were coming from traumatized patients due to motor-vehicle accidents. The most profitable clients were the ones most traumatized but not dead. To be clear, the last two statements, even if true in an economic sense, do not correspond to what I really think; I just wanted to feel like Gregmal for two sentences. Comparing the standard 1965 death to number of miles driven to the 2018 number (most recent I could find), the fatality improvement has reached about 80%! The areas that led to improvement were: speeding, drunk driving, compliance with seat belts and many behaviors related to testosterone. In the last few years, a relative plateau has been reached and this may be related to the disappearance of low-hanging fruits but especially to the relatively recent distracted driving related to cell phone use while driving. Absent this 80% improvement based largely on reasonable individual adaptation and cultural change, the number of American residual quality-life loss due to motor vehicle accidents would have been about 4 x larger this year than the equivalent toll for the 2020 Covid group.

 

So yes you can. If you want to. Fundamentally, it’s about the integration of the individual into a community risk management strategy. And it really sounds like a path compatible with greatness, economic and otherwise.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Vaccine coming...2 days before election...Because Phase III studies are for libtards!

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-02/cdc-tells-states-to-get-ready-for-nov-1-vaccine-distribution

 

Enjoy your MAGA injection!

[Investor20]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub

"Effect of Calcifediol Treatment and best Available Therapy versus best Available Therapy on Intensive Care Unit Admission and Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: A Pilot Randomized Clinical study"

 

Participants:  .....confirmed by a radiographic pattern of viral pneumonia and by a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR......

 

Conclusion

 

Our pilot study demonstrated that administration of a high dose of Calcifediol or 25-hydroxyvitamin D, a main metabolite of vitamin D endocrine system, significantly reduced the need for ICU treatment of patients requiring hospitalization due to proven COVID-19. Calcifediol seems to be able to reduce severity of the disease, but larger trials with groups properly matched will be required to show a definitive answer.

 

.................................

 

Small study but very interesting that Calcifediol (vitamin D metabolite) can reduce ICU admission of patients already with "radiographic pattern of viral pneumonia". Hope it will be confirmed by further studies.

[muscleman]

Vaccine coming...2 days before election...Because Phase III studies are for libtards!

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-02/cdc-tells-states-to-get-ready-for-nov-1-vaccine-distribution

 

Enjoy your MAGA injection!

 

Lots of people say the vaccine is being rushed. I think it is intentionally being delayed. At least I see it this way because there are 2.7M volunteers who signed up for the phase 3 trials of Moderna and others but so far Moderna only recruited 17k. I would think all 30k would have been recruited in a week or two but it has been 5-6 weeks now.

 

The reason this vaccine is coming out so fast is because a lot of pharmas have been developing MERS vaccine for 5-6 years and COVID is so similar that they just need to switch a portion of the genetic sequence to make it.

 

With that said.... the November 1st date does seem fishy.

[muscleman]

Warning to people who are still bullish on the market, I think the COVID situation is improving too fast and asset bubble is brewing too quickly and FED may be stopping the QE soon and I expect the market to build a major top here soon.

 

To me, your comment seems to imply that:

A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps,

B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or,

C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered.

 

Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation.

 

So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks!

 

B.

But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then.

Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb.

 

However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash.

I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day.

 

People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100%

 

Looks like the market starts to crack today. Is this the top? Is it going to resume higher?  ::)

I've been full cash since earlier this week. I haven't figured out if the market is going to puke-it-all-out or do a sector rotation at this moment. But I do think the COVID situation is improving too fast and the market is too optimistic that we'll at least get a severe pull back if not a bigger correction.

 

[Gregmal]

Warning to people who are still bullish on the market, I think the COVID situation is improving too fast and asset bubble is brewing too quickly and FED may be stopping the QE soon and I expect the market to build a major top here soon.

 

To me, your comment seems to imply that:

A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps,

B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or,

C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered.

 

Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation.

 

So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks!

 

B.

But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then.

Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb.

 

However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash.

I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day.

 

People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100%

 

 

Looks like the market starts to crack today. Is this the top? Is it going to resume higher?  ::)

I've been full cash since earlier this week. I haven't figured out if the market is going to puke-it-all-out or do a sector rotation at this moment. But I do think the COVID situation is improving too fast and the market is too optimistic that we'll at least get a severe pull back if not a bigger correction.

 

I dont place too much weigh on the technical stuff, but also try to not completely ignore it. The opening reversal in momo names yesterday morning was as textbook an exhaustion puke as Ive ever seen. (example CRWD, although there were many, many others)

[Dalal.Holdings]

Injection will be great! Unfortunately side effects and whether it works or not will not be known until after you cast your ballot!

[muscleman]

Injection will be great! Unfortunately side effects and whether it works or not will not be known until after you cast your ballot!

 

You are talking as if the phase 3 trial does not exist.

[Gregmal]

First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps.

[muscleman]

First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps.

 

Yep. I can clearly see people with agenda or Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) twisting facts.

[LC]

At this point, the Trump administration has zero credibility - so we're in the "put up or shut up" phase.

 

Which is not to say the vaccine does or doesn't work, but the evidence must prove it - not Trump's word.

 

So why not take a scientific perspective:

 

Do we have phase 3 trial results? Have they been independently confirmed?

Is anyone qualified to medically opine on the probability of a successful vaccine of this sort?

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

At this point, the Trump administration has zero credibility - so we're in the "put up or shut up" phase.

 

Which is not to say the vaccine does or doesn't work, but the evidence must prove it - not Trump's word.

 

So why not take a scientific perspective:

 

Do we have phase 3 trial results? Have they been independently confirmed?

Is anyone qualified to medically opine on the probability of a successful vaccine of this sort?

 

Donald Trump has incredible credibility even before entering the WH. I would definitely buy a used car from him, let alone allowing his team to inject a rushed vaccine that happened to be ready 2 days before election day in me !

 

Totally credible, trustworthy guy who if you had a daughter, you’d be thrilled she married !

 

Or not. Might be TDS but in my neck of the woods not wanting Don as a son in law would be deemed common sense...Some of us can spot a con more easily than others I guess.