Coronavirus

[orthopa]

Yes, the people who were saying that Denmark was the best model are pretty quiet these days.  Denmark is at ~500 cases per day about now, for a population of a shade under 6 million people.  So, take Denmark and multiply by about 60, and that would be similar to the US.  So, 500 x 60 = 30,000 (still lower than the current number of new cases in the US, but not appreciably).  All of the people claiming that Sweden was misguided and that Denmark's test and traceback approach was dialed-in are pretty quiet in September.

 

Do we need to talk about the Netherlands or France?

 

Where are all of the aggressive, partisan posts these days?  BTW, Canada is rapidly heading the wrong direction too.

 

 

SJ

 

Why do you expect partisan posts?

 

 

Maybe there are two coronavirus threads I have been reading the wrong one. We heard all summer about the lack of leadership in the US compared to Canada, Europe, NZ etc etc. That posting seems to have changed. Maybe that was his/her point

 

Canada is really trending the wrong way heading into fall/winter. What a lack of leadership up there. Testing and tracing must be going well. Maybe we should be testing more knowing 45ish% of people have no symptoms and people can test positive for weeks after not being contangious. That sounds like it will be real effective. Worth a try no?

 

[orthopa]

https://docs4opendebate.be/en/open-letter/

 

Excellent. These points will go largely undiscussed, in the media, public, and ofcourse this board. Like a fart in the wind.

[Guest cherzeca]

https://docs4opendebate.be/en/open-letter/

 

Excellent. These points will go largely undiscussed, in the media, public, and ofcourse this board. Like a fart in the wind.

 

I usually say like a footprint in the sand, but I like your phrase better

[StubbleJumper]

Yes, the people who were saying that Denmark was the best model are pretty quiet these days.  Denmark is at ~500 cases per day about now, for a population of a shade under 6 million people.  So, take Denmark and multiply by about 60, and that would be similar to the US.  So, 500 x 60 = 30,000 (still lower than the current number of new cases in the US, but not appreciably).  All of the people claiming that Sweden was misguided and that Denmark's test and traceback approach was dialed-in are pretty quiet in September.

 

Do we need to talk about the Netherlands or France?

 

Where are all of the aggressive, partisan posts these days?  BTW, Canada is rapidly heading the wrong direction too.

 

 

SJ

 

Why do you expect partisan posts?

 

 

Maybe there are two coronavirus threads I have been reading the wrong one. We heard all summer about the lack of leadership in the US compared to Canada, Europe, NZ etc etc. That posting seems to have changed. Maybe that was his/her point

 

Canada is really trending the wrong way heading into fall/winter. What a lack of leadership up there. Testing and tracing must be going well. Maybe we should be testing more knowing 45ish% of people have no symptoms and people can test positive for weeks after not being contangious. That sounds like it will be real effective. Worth a try no?

 

 

 

Yes, that was precisely my point.  There is a cabal of posters who attributed all of the US failures to one particular individual and pointed at the success of countries in Europe and of Canada in better controlling the virus as models which the US ought to have followed.  Three months later, the number of daily new cases in European countries are no longer dissimilar to that of the US, which shows how effective test-and-traceback is with this particular virus.  Should we attribute Europe's failure to control covid to the US president too?

 

 

SJ

[Gregmal]

Yup, yup. And then if they do make an appearance it will be to contort the arguments they were previous making. Much like the US vs Italy one.

[clutch]

Then there are Canadians on this thread who criticize and scrutinize the US admin in every way they can when things were not looking good there... Similar thing with Sweden.

 

Now that Canada looks to be heading in the wrong direction, they don't say anything... lol

 

As a Canadian myself, I really don't understand in this kind of behavior... I really doubt they care at all about people dying due to COVID -- they just want to jump in on the political fights and express their disgust on Trump or whoever that don't agree with their views. It's kind of sad.

 

 

[Gregmal]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/apple-ceo-tim-cook-pressed-001912518.html

 

Tim Cook  “I think this virus caught the world by surprise”

 

Who wants to criticize Tim? Come on! Who wants to be a homophobe?

 

 

Also interesting on WFM

 

While productivity is possible at a distance, Cook said, “it’s not like being together physically.” The company’s gleaming, circular Apple Park building was designed to foster creativity and serendipitous interaction between employees. “I can’t wait for everybody to be able to be able to come back to the office,” Cook said, though he added, “I don’t think we’ll be able to return to the way we were because we’ve found that there are some things that work really well virtually.”

[cwericb]

 

Canada is really trending the wrong way heading into fall/winter. What a lack of leadership up there.

 

The U.S. has 200,000 dead. Canada has 9,200. Factor in the difference of population and the US death rate is over double that of Canada - 2.6 times to be exact.

 

The reason Canada’s Covid rate is now starting to increase is probably no great surprise. It is likely due to the change in weather as Canada heads into what Canadians call “The Flu Season”.

 

The Fall cold and wet season is just starting to settle in and will likely get a lot worse before it gets better. The question may now be, will the Northern States see the same type of increase in Covid cases? Is Canada’s increasing rate a precursor of what is coming as we transition from summer into fall and winter?

 

One might also surmise that a certain amount of the increase may well be also due to trans-border crossings. While the border is closed to tourism, there are still thousands (tens of thousands) truckers and other essential workers crossing the border every day. I believe that half the U.S. states are still seeing cases trending up. You can't share a 3,000 mile border with a country that has a widespread disease and not expect it to spread over that border.

 

Lock-downs, contact tracing and travel restrictions can work very, very well, but it is simply not practical in many locations.

[clutch]

 

One might also surmise that a certain amount of the increase may well be also due to trans-border crossings. While the border is closed to tourism, there are still thousands (tens of thousands) truckers and other essential workers crossing the border every day. I believe that half the U.S. states are still seeing cases trending up. You can't share a 3,000 mile border with a country that has a widespread disease and not expect it to spread over that border.

 

 

Our government continues to tell that there are very few cases coming across the border... whether you believe it or not.

 

Our Minister of Health infamously had said "Virus knows no borders" in March a few days before the country shut down the borders... The same ministry didn't want to people coming from China in Februrary put in self-isolaiton because it might lead to stigmitizing Chinese... then they communicated the nonsense about not needing to wear masks... Yet she rarely gets a pushback (except from the conservative media). I wonder why?

[Cigarbutt]

i wonder if this "us"-versus-"them" adversarial tension is not a reason for the difficulty in reaching a best cost-benefit outcome (assuming one evaluates this from a total and bipartisan population point of view) and for the dwindling support for vaccines. A very recent and well-done survey reveals that only 39% (with a R-D "confidence" interval from 33 to 43%) of Americans would get a first-generation vaccine when available. The support for vaccines is waning at an incredibly rapid pace and this is a head-scratcher (assuming one agrees that vaccines are a useful tool at the total and bipartisan population level).

As with most topics, it's probably best to put emotions aside, to look at data and start from there.

 

 

A key variable at this stage is the percentage positive rate (which is reflecting community spread more than testing activity). Yesterday, the US was at 5.8%. It looks like Spain, France and the UK will show relatively poorer mortality outcomes both at the initial containment phase and during the eventual community spread mitigation phase. However, as before, it may be too early for some conclusions. i share clutch's optimism (i would add improved care and better awareness in areas that were already hard-hit) about the handling and outcome of this forming wave, assuming dynamic policies will continue to be applied according to the evolution of real data.

 

Recently, i was able to look at some data concerning the cancer aspect. My area's healthcare capacity (like many others to variable degrees) was redirected to Covid to a significant extent for a few months. It is being realized (and explanations are also forming) that treatments have been delayed for many. Even more worrisome, contrary to the surgical backload that has increased significantly for most specialties, the backload for cancer surgeries has decreased, very likely because limited access to testing and relative discontinuation of screening practices (in my area, about 10% of cancer diagnoses are given to asymptomatic people). Whatever life and suffering saved by precautionary measures need to take into account future life and suffering borrowed from the future. Dealing with this remains a difficult exercise and we should perhaps learn from each other..

[Viking]

Then there are Canadians on this thread who criticize and scrutinize the US admin in every way they can when things were not looking good there... Similar thing with Sweden.

 

Now that Canada looks to be heading in the wrong direction, they don't say anything... lol

 

As a Canadian myself, I really don't understand in this kind of behavior... I really doubt they care at all about people dying due to COVID -- they just want to jump in on the political fights and express their disgust on Trump or whoever that don't agree with their views. It's kind of sad.

 

Every region in the world is going to struggle to manage the virus. And mistakes will be made. Lots. Here in BC (Canada) they have been slowly opening the economy up more and more. And the case count dropped crazy low mid summer so people started to let their guard down (less mask wearing/social distancing especially with young adult cohort). Lots of get togethers in August especially at the end. Kids are now back in school. It was very predictable that case counts would jump when you open your economy up, end of summer parties, lots of people stop wearing masks/social distancing and you send kids back to school. As case counts increase people will get with the program again. And perhaps there will be new restrictions from the government.

 

The gasoline on the fire will be seasonality (winter and flu season); any regions who have a high base case count going in to flu season will struggle mightily. Lots of red flags right now. But governments will respond and people will adjust. With covid you try stuff, learn, adapt and try again. (Kind of like investing.)

 

These things make a dangerous and very difficult situation much more challenging:

1.) your leader lies pretty much every time he speaks - so nothing he says can now be trusted. Please read this point a second and third time. It is REALLY important especially when dealing with a pandemic... for those of you who seem to have forgotten :-)

2.) your leader does not believe in science. Please read this point a second and third time. It is also REALLY important when dealing with a pandemic.

3.) your leader muzzles / intimidates / politicizes the health apparatus normally charged with managing the pandemic. This is also really important then dealing with a pandemic.

4.) your leader refuses to work with all states and local governments to create a unified approach to dealing with the pandemic (communication, actions etc). This is really important.

5.) your leader is unable to work with other political parties to create a unified approach to dealing with the pandemic. This is also really important.

6.)  your leader refuses to champion the two activities that will have the greatest impact in controlling the virus: wear a mask and social distance. This is also really important.

7.) your leader is not compassionate: in the US hundreds of thousands of people have died and many hundreds of thousand will die in the coming months... the virus is a humanitarian disaster and Trump is focussed primarily on... getting himself reelected. His actions in dealing with the pandemic are informed by whether or not they are going to get him reelected. Despicable is the only way to describe this.

 

I could go on and on about all of the highly, highly inappropriate things that Trump has done. Yes, other leaders have faults. But the pandemic has demonstrated his terrible faults and his utter incompetence. The pandemic is proving to be Trump’s kryptonite.

 

1.) Do i trust my leaders here in Canada. Not completely, but yes. Their faults are minor compared to what we are seeing from Trump. They do not lie every time they open their mouth.

2.) Do our leaders believe in science? Yes

3.) Is the medical community largely leading the response? Yes.

4.) Is there a unified federal, provincial, municipal response? Yes.

5.) Is there a unified cross party response? For the most part, yes.

6.) Are our leaders communicating / role modelling mask wearing and social distancing? Yes

7.) Are leaders showing compassion to the families who have been impacted, especially to those who have lost loved ones? Yes.

 

Do i hold local politicians accountable? Yes. When they said early on that mask wearing would not help that was clearly a mistake; but one that has largely been rectified. More recently, the initial back to school plan looked weak; it is being rectified. Will they make more mistakes. Of course. Do i have confidence they are doing their best and have all BC residents best interests at heart (in terms of pandemic response)? Yes.

[KCLarkin]

Then there are Canadians on this thread who criticize and scrutinize the US admin in every way they can when things were not looking good there... Similar thing with Sweden.

 

Was hoping nobody would feed the MAGA-trolls, but since Viking broke the ice...

 

I am happy to talk about all the myriad failures of Premier Doug Ford in Ontaraio. AMA.

 

P.s. for those surprised that Canadians have an opinion on American politics, please understand that we watch American TV, movies, football, etc. We listen to American music. I can't name a single Canadian supreme court justice. I know almost all the American justices. IIRC, the left calls this "cultural imperialism".

[DooDiligence]

Then there are Canadians on this thread who criticize and scrutinize the US admin in every way they can when things were not looking good there... Similar thing with Sweden.

 

Was hoping nobody would feed the MAGA-trolls, but since Viking broke the ice...

 

I am happy to talk about all the myriad failures of Premier Doug Ford in Ontaraio. AMA.

 

P.s. for those surprised that Canadians have an opinion on American politics, please understand that we watch American TV, movies, football, etc. We listen to American music. I can't name a single Canadian supreme court justice. I know almost all the American justices. IIRC, the left calls this "cultural imperialism".

 

We forgive you for Justin Bieber & thank you profusely for Rush & Neil Young.

[Castanza]

https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1308511573271478273?s=21

 

 

[cwericb]

“1.) your leader lies pretty much every time he speaks - so nothing he says can now be trusted. Please read this point a second and third time. It is REALLY important especially when dealing with a pandemic... for those of you who seem to have forgotten :-)

2.) your leader does not believe in science. Please read this point a second and third time. It is also REALLY important when dealing with a pandemic.

3.) your leader muzzles / intimidates / politicizes the health apparatus normally charged with managing the pandemic. This is also really important then dealing with a pandemic.

4.) your leader refuses to work with all states and local governments to create a unified approach to dealing with the pandemic (communication, actions etc). This is really important.

5.) your leader is unable to work with other political parties to create a unified approach to dealing with the pandemic. This is also really important.

6.)  your leader refuses to champion the two activities that will have the greatest impact in controlling the virus: wear a mask and social distance. This is also really important.

7.) your leader is not compassionate: in the US hundreds of thousands of people have died and many hundreds of thousand will die in the coming months... the virus is a humanitarian disaster and Trump is focussed primarily on... getting himself reelected. His actions in dealing with the pandemic are informed by whether or not they are going to get him reelected. Despicable is the only way to describe this.”

 

Funny how when confronted with irrefutable facts such as the above, Trump supporters seem to disappear or change the subject. But if they do comment the excuse is ‘... well, Biden would be worse’ even though none of the above 7 points seem apply to Biden.

 

[Gregmal]

LOL, we've reached a whole new level when things like "everything he says is a lie", "your leader does not believe in science", and most of the other 1-7 are now considered "irrefutable facts"....

[StubbleJumper]

LOL, we've reached a whole new level when things like "everything he says is a lie", "your leader does not believe in science", and most of the other 1-7 are now considered "irrefutable facts"....

 

 

What is truly fascinating is that Cigarbutt went to the trouble of posting the graphic portraying the 7-day rolling new cases per million population, which shows pretty clearly that the US, the Netherlands, Spain and France are all currently in the same boat when it comes to new covid cases.  Denmark, Canada and the UK are rapidly heading towards that boat.  The bizarre response from some posters to the trends that we've seen over the past month or six weeks is to double-down on the Trump criticism.  It's all fine and well to criticize Trump's engagement on this pandemic, although I tend to believe that the importance of the federal government's role is a bit overstated.  However, how does one attribute this entirety of this situation to Trump, when half of Europe is in the same damned boat right now, and the rest of us look like we'll soon join them? 

 

It should be pretty obvious by now that the posters in this thread who suggested in March that the lock-down measures undertaken by a great many countries could only temporarily hold down the spread of covid.  In most countries, the lock-down measures were relaxed in May/June and look where they are at today.  They are exactly back to where they started in March.  The difference now is that I suspect that very few of those countries will find the popular support among the population to implement another aggressive lock-down.  In short, my guess is that those countries will largely come around to the US approach of having a relatively high tolerance to the spread of the virus.

 

Or, we could just continue to vilify one guy.

 

 

SJ

[orthopa]

LOL, we've reached a whole new level when things like "everything he says is a lie", "your leader does not believe in science", and most of the other 1-7 are now considered "irrefutable facts"....

 

 

What is truly fascinating is that Cigarbutt went to the trouble of posting the graphic portraying the 7-day rolling new cases per million population, which shows pretty clearly that the US, the Netherlands, Spain and France are all currently in the same boat when it comes to new covid cases.  Denmark, Canada and the UK are rapidly heading towards that boat.  The bizarre response from some posters to the trends that we've seen over the past month or six weeks is to double-down on the Trump criticism.  It's all fine and well to criticize Trump's engagement on this pandemic, although I tend to believe that the importance of the federal government's role is a bit overstated.  However, how does one attribute this entirety of this situation to Trump, when half of Europe is in the same damned boat right now, and the rest of us look like we'll soon join them? 

 

It should be pretty obvious by now that the posters in this thread who suggested in March that the lock-down measures undertaken by a great many countries could only temporarily hold down the spread of covid.  In most countries, the lock-down measures were relaxed in May/June and look where they are at today.  They are exactly back to where they started in March.  The difference now is that I suspect that very few of those countries will find the popular support among the population to implement another aggressive lock-down.  In short, my guess is that those countries will largely come around to the US approach of having a relatively high tolerance to the spread of the virus.

 

Or, we could just continue to vilify one guy.

 

 

SJ

 

There should be no reason to lock down again. Looking at what the UK is doing with their restrictions relative to the deaths per day they are experiencing is absurd. The death rate from this virus has decreased substantially.

 

In the end the virus always wins. There is no magic and there was nothing anyone could have done to prevent this in any country in any part of the world. The asymptomatic population decimates any chance to contain/track the virus and if the death rate continues to fall as it has it nears a point of a complete waste of time to test/treat it any different then known viral infections.

[orthopa]

 

Canada is really trending the wrong way heading into fall/winter. What a lack of leadership up there.

 

The U.S. has 200,000 dead. Canada has 9,200. Factor in the difference of population and the US death rate is over double that of Canada - 2.6 times to be exact.

 

The reason Canada’s Covid rate is now starting to increase is probably no great surprise. It is likely due to the change in weather as Canada heads into what Canadians call “The Flu Season”.

 

The Fall cold and wet season is just starting to settle in and will likely get a lot worse before it gets better. The question may now be, will the Northern States see the same type of increase in Covid cases? Is Canada’s increasing rate a precursor of what is coming as we transition from summer into fall and winter?

 

One might also surmise that a certain amount of the increase may well be also due to trans-border crossings. While the border is closed to tourism, there are still thousands (tens of thousands) truckers and other essential workers crossing the border every day. I believe that half the U.S. states are still seeing cases trending up. You can't share a 3,000 mile border with a country that has a widespread disease and not expect it to spread over that border.

 

Lock-downs, contact tracing and travel restrictions can work very, very well, but it is simply not practical in many locations.

 

Who cares about the death rate. Isnt the new thing the "lifelong complications" that maybe as a consequence of covid? You may have a bunch of canadians that escaped death but are SOB when they go upstairs or whatever.  Never mind the fact they are 400lbs and have avoid stairs their whole life.

 

 

A viral disease so severe that nearly half of the people who have it have no idea they have it and the ones that do have problems and die were mostly ticking time bombs.

 

 

[Gregmal]

Of course there is all that. But on a much simpler, almost elementary level, it says a lot when we have people confusing adjective filled opinion and subjective observation, with fact.

 

For instance, do you believe Trudeau, or Biden or Obama are compassionate people? If yes, do you know them personally? Have you ever met them? If not, then what? You are just putting your faith in their "presentation" to the public...which is surely well scripted, prepared, and practiced. But you fall for it anyway. And conclude they are "honest", "compassionate", etc despite knowing nothing about them on a personal level. Even the politician, ala Corey Booker, out on the streets on Thanksgiving, giving out food....turns out it was scripted, and leaked to the media and paparazzi...for publicity. But some people fall for it. "I know he is a great guy!"...LOL...and he "knows" you fell for it.

 

At the end of the day, people's issues with Trump are about style. Some simply prefer their scumbag politicians put on lipstick, tell them what they want to hear, and metaphorically fine dine them before they fuck them. To each their own. Today was a big day for the liberals....ZOMG 200,000 DEATHS!!!!!!!! #Donnydidit!

[cwericb]

Downplay the deaths all you want. But do you realize that - 200,000 deaths - is about half the number of Americans killed in WWII?

Just keeping things in perspective. Most people would find this horrific. 

[Viking]

Druckenmiller says stay inquisitive and be open minded. Along this vein, can the Trump supporters (perhaps those who recently posted) please answer each of the 7 questions below. Each is a ‘yes‘ or ‘no’ question. I am hoping your answers will inform and teach me something. Thanks in advance :-)

 

1.) Trump does not lie at a historic rate - far, far greater than other political figure in US history. This is a yes or no question.

2.) Trump is an ardent supporter of science? Yes or no?

3.) Trump has not tried to intimidate and muzzle the CDC and other departments tasked with handling the pandemic? Yes or no?

4.) Trump has worked very effectively with all states to create a cohesive national strategy to deal with the pandemic? Yes or no

5.) Trump has worked very effectively with the Democrats to come up with a unified approach to deal with the pandemic? Yes or no?

6.) Trump has been a champion in role modelling and promoting the two activities that will have the greatest impact in controlling the virus: wear a mask and social distancing. Yes or no?

7.) Trump has done an admirable job in supporting the 200,000 families who have lost a loved one so far during the pandemic? Yes or no?

[cubsfan]

^ This is getting funny actually.

 

Add this to your list:

 

8) Do you hate Donald Trump and is he really a NAZI?  YES or NO?

[Viking]

Of course there is all that. But on a much simpler, almost elementary level, it says a lot when we have people confusing adjective filled opinion and subjective observation, with fact.

 

For instance, do you believe Trudeau, or Biden or Obama are compassionate people? If yes, do you know them personally? Have you ever met them? If not, then what? You are just putting your faith in their "presentation" to the public...which is surely well scripted, prepared, and practiced. But you fall for it anyway. And conclude they are "honest", "compassionate", etc despite knowing nothing about them on a personal level. Even the politician, ala Corey Booker, out on the streets on Thanksgiving, giving out food....turns out it was scripted, and leaked to the media and paparazzi...for publicity. But some people fall for it. "I know he is a great guy!"...LOL...and he "knows" you fell for it.

 

At the end of the day, people's issues with Trump are about style. Some simply prefer their scumbag politicians put on lipstick, tell them what they want to hear, and metaphorically fine dine them before they fuck them. To each their own. Today was a big day for the liberals....ZOMG 200,000 DEATHS!!!!!!!! #Donnydidit!

 

How does one really know about a person? Great question.

 

Well if you are asking here are some strategies you might want to try:

1.) The best single way is to listen to what comes out of their lips.

2.) Another suggestion is to watch watch what they actually do.

3.) it can also be very informative to watch how they treat other people, especially those they are disappointed with

 

A fourth suggestion is to listen to what close associates/family members have to say - but look for lots of of different sources to get an accurate picture (you will want to avoid the axe grinder types but this can easily be done). If this aligns with what you learned in 1, 2 and 3 above, you might be on to something :-)

 

Anyways, when you layer all 4 of the above together and do so over many years you can construct a pretty accurate picture. Hope this helps :-)

[Viking]

^ This is getting funny actually.

 

Add this to your list:

 

8) Do you hate Donald Trump and is he really a NAZI?  YES or NO?

 

No, of course not :-)

 

Your turn.