Coronavirus

[Viking]

In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets"....

 

Quite ironic considering in Feb/Mar/Apr many folks were pleading for increased testing to determine accurate infection and spread statistics, but were met with resistance (what good will testing do!?).

 

I mean Chris Christie was just released. Another fat fuck with no shortage of high risk flags...living to tell about it.

 

Wow another person that didn't die and he is fat as hell with asthma to boot.

 

Fortunately, he is rich and likely got the best care available.

 

Does anyone know if testing positive for covid impacts ability/rate when applying for new health insurance coverage (i.e. new job) or when applying for a new life insurance policy?

 

Do we understand what the long term health risks are of catching covid? My guess is health insurance providers and life insurance companies will be motivated to figure this out quickly and get it priced accordingly.

[Cigarbutt]

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/

In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets"....

India's death rate is quite low. But thats impossible, because its not the 6% that was coming out of China in Jan.

Other countries are more successful then the US, but when doing better then the US you cant be TOO successful and not counting all the dead bodies. Lets not get ahead of ourselves.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/asia/india-covid-death-rate-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

There was nothing anyone could have done to prevent the virus as it was here before we knew it and case counts were way, way higher then suspected in Feb and March. Interesting look back based on some conversations from the spring.

It is fair to say that health data reporting in India is not as reliable as in some other countries but their age distribution is wildly different (much younger profile). Since age is the major risk factor and since age risk rises exponentially, one can expect that their overall mortality rates will be overall much lower.

 

-For the it was there all along and there was nothing to do about it aspect

There is solid and robust evidence concurrent to the initial spread and data revealed over time that the thesis does not make sense.

-concurrent work

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2008646

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm?s_cid=mm6922e1_w

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249414291297464321.html

-data over time

The thesis does not make sense from a mathematical, epidemiological and logical point of view.

 

@orthopa and Gregmal

You realize that you are basically arguing that the earth is flat?

Opinion: This thesis cannot be disproved but it can be rejected with a high degree of confidence. ::)

 

The piece in the NEJM mentioned above is interesting because it helps to explain the evolution in Washington State vs what happened elsewhere (look at deaths per million, excess mortality etc and compare to potential outcomes considered prospectively.

 

Suggesting (and maintaining the opinion that) nothing could be done sounds awfully fatalistic and is not supported by evidence.

[orthopa]

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/

In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets"....

India's death rate is quite low. But thats impossible, because its not the 6% that was coming out of China in Jan.

Other countries are more successful then the US, but when doing better then the US you cant be TOO successful and not counting all the dead bodies. Lets not get ahead of ourselves.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/asia/india-covid-death-rate-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

There was nothing anyone could have done to prevent the virus as it was here before we knew it and case counts were way, way higher then suspected in Feb and March. Interesting look back based on some conversations from the spring.

It is fair to say that health data reporting in India is not as reliable as in some other countries but their age distribution is wildly different (much younger profile). Since age is the major risk factor and since age risk rises exponentially, one can expect that their overall mortality rates will be overall much lower.

 

-For the it was there all along and there was nothing to do about it aspect

There is solid and robust evidence concurrent to the initial spread and data revealed over time that the thesis does not make sense.

-concurrent work

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2008646

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm?s_cid=mm6922e1_w

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249414291297464321.html

-data over time

The thesis does not make sense from a mathematical, epidemiological and logical point of view.

 

@orthopa and Gregmal

You realize that you are basically arguing that the earth is flat?

Opinion: This thesis cannot be disproved but it can be rejected with a high degree of confidence. ::)

 

The piece in the NEJM mentioned above is interesting because it helps to explain the evolution in Washington State vs what happened elsewhere (look at deaths per million, excess mortality etc and compare to potential outcomes considered prospectively.

 

Suggesting (and maintaining the opinion that) nothing could be done sounds awfully fatalistic and is not supported by evidence.

 

In what way? That the vast majority of of those that died were very sick and the most vulnerable? Whats the face of the dead in America? A 76 year old ill patient with 2.6 comorbidities who's life expectancy is months or the 25 year old that just drops dead.

 

Trump, all in the white house, Chris Christie etc are giving you a good look at the recovery prospects of 99% and greater of those who get this disease. I think the average moron walking around the grocery store with gloves on, glasses, and a mask wouldn't think for 2 seconds that Chris Christie would survive. He is fat and has asthma. He is a goner. Thats what America thinks, thats why we are stopping the spread right? So everyone like Chris Christie doesnt die!!!

[orthopa]

In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets"....

 

Quite ironic considering in Feb/Mar/Apr many folks were pleading for increased testing to determine accurate infection and spread statistics, but were met with resistance (what good will testing do!?).

 

I mean Chris Christie was just released. Another fat fuck with no shortage of high risk flags...living to tell about it.

 

Wow another person that didn't die and he is fat as hell with asthma to boot.

 

Fortunately, he is rich and likely got the best care available.

 

 

Lazy answer. He apparently got remdesivir which doesn't work anyway right? and was under "observation" which means they didnt do shit.

 

If this is the treatment and outcome for a morbidly obese asthmatic and expected outcome for all of those in his condition and healthier we have sorely swung things the wrong way here.

 

Chris Christie effectively had a cold and got better. Why is that so hard to accept for people?

[Gregmal]

He is rich and got the best care....also known as "the good stuff"...aka the same stuff regular folks were getting in China in February and NY in March/April. Remdesivir, vitamin D, and zinc...

 

Whats more likely(Cuomo nursing home blunder aside), NY/NJ/MA, etc running 6-8% death rates? Or cases back when testing wasn't being done efficiently are grossly understated? I know, the Earth is flat. Steve Wozniak was likely positive here in the state during the first week of January....fake news. I know maybe a dozen people personally who have had it. 80% haven't been confirmed/are not represented in the official case numbers...

 

The entire bunch of old, fat, unhealthy US politicians just got this? Still waiting for the mass casualties...

 

UF is pushing hard for 100% capacity at next weeks game. A guaranteed super spreader event, if so, according to the experts. If 2-3 weeks following that there isn't substantial evidence of this occurring, can people finally just shut up and get on with their lives? Its just non stop hype of this damn thing and there's nothing to indicate it is warranted anymore. Dont blow it off anymore than you would with the flu or any other basic common sense health/safety measures...but enough with the fear mongering and hysteria.

 

Even back to Trump..."oh he was asking for it"...well a 74 year old in his condition getting the flu is probably pretty darn dangerous too. But stop giving this thing super powers that it clearly doesnt possess..

[orthopa]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/schools-arent-superspreaders/616669/

[LC]

A 76 year old ill patient with 2.6 comorbidities who's life expectancy is months or the 25 year old that just drops dead.

 

A question to orthopa (really anyone willing to take a crack at it):

 

If the vast majority of excess deaths would have occurred over the next coming months ("life expectance is months"), then why has there been no observed trend of "under-mortality" to the tune of 100k+ in the 6-7 months past the initial spike?

 

Or to borrow Cigarbutt's wording of the same sentiment:

 

Taking the NYC excess mortality data for example, even forgetting the cause (direct, indirect, marginal or even lockdown related) of deaths for analytic purposes (life expectancy lost because of whatever happened during the excess mortality period), if the life expectancy of all those who died was a few days, weeks or months, how is it mathematically or logically possible that excess mortality has not reversed in the negative direction now that reported Covid deaths have gone down to very low levels (close to zero) for months?

[Cigarbutt]

In February and March there was barely any testing, at least compared to today. Obviously numbers are drastically understated. Which is why it was again utterly unbelievable that some folks continue to cite statistics they cant possibly believe to be accurate. Its similar to the politically charged global figures as well. Trump called this out at the debate. "Oh US is x% of population and 25% of deaths"...."You believe the numbers out of China, Russia, India?"...."crickets"....

I mean Chris Christie was just released. Another fat fuck with no shortage of high risk flags...living to tell about it.

Wow another person that didn't die and he is fat as hell with asthma to boot.

...

Does anyone know if testing positive for covid impacts ability/rate when applying for new health insurance coverage (i.e. new job) or when applying for a new life insurance policy?

Do we understand what the long term health risks are of catching covid? My guess is health insurance providers and life insurance companies will be motivated to figure this out quickly and get it priced accordingly.

The following is not expert advice and you may want to fall back on anecdotal opinions formulated by celebrities or high BMI politicians.

It's also work in progress.

 

There is a lot of noise now about "long" Covid and it seems that most of it is noise and not signal.

You can break down into two categories:

-The simple Covid+ test or sick person not requiring a hospitalization.

This group is likely to do well for all the scenarios you mention although the life insurer may use the administrative process to make sure one has recovered before the actual signature. Health insurers have done very well with Covid, on a net basis, and the new normal makes it ideal, absent major changes in the set up, for them to gain access to profitable segments. For example, United Health and Humana can continue to increase their presence in the Medicare Advantage segment and maintain their high gross margins despite (and perhaps more so with) Covid. It seems health insurers always, at least so far, end up making more money when uncertainty is high.

-The more complicated case who gets hospitalized (especially if need for intensive care and respiratory support). Survivors have consistently shown longer and possibly incomplete recovery. For a large part of this group however, these issues were already relevant before Covid (risk factors). The life insurers can require a more formal evaluation in these cases and they will come up with an new integrated score quite rapidly for those who remain candidates for life insurance.

 

If interested, this seems to be a good summary of where things stand right now although things could change at the margin with more learning:

https://globalhealth.washington.edu/sites/default/files/COVID-19%20Long%20Term%20Effects%20Summary.pdf?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWkdFM1lXWTNOR00xTkdFNCIsInQiOiJwYXh2Qmc4WWczMTIyTURSSER2VzNKRm5oc2RSbUdJenowUitjUEMyTVR5MUk0REFCTG10MFErbG5MRWxFNGFPbndFWUlUdzVjSzNMU0FtdldKS3BQNFwvWVhBZkxRMm5KcTRwa2U3OW5pUGRcL1hQRFk3Sk96cDl2Zk5peWtxTVBrIn0%3D#overlay-context=uwmetacenter

[muscleman]

 

 

 

3rd wave: I was wrong about the prediction about 20k daily at the end of August. I should have realized that different states have different situations. I still think GA, FL, TX, NY won't have another wave. They reached similar level of total case/population and GA, FL, TX have been open for 2 months. Other states have not reached this level of total case/population so it is possible to have another wave.

 

@muscleman, and others who have market timing investment philosophies:

I'm curious about the latest wave of cases and it's impact on market timing. What are the US and European markets correlating with then, because they don't seem to be correlating with this rise in cases, or now with the rising hospitalization and death numbers or even some localized shutdowns? Is there any metric of the pandemic that they are correlating to? Were we just dealing with liquidity issues that the Fed actions improved, or does solvency come into the picture to impact them as the next wave arrives and this drags on?

 

I already said about 2-3 weeks ago that I was turning bullish again, but with low confidence, so I turned from 100% cash to 60% cash. I have all the posts in this thread that you can go back and verify. I was aiming for 50% cash but there was 1-2 positions that shot up right before I decided to buy. >:(

You have too many questions that I just felt overwhelmed to answer.  :'(

I can try to answer 1-2.

In short, initially when the COVID broke out, it was really bearish for the market in March. Everyone was scared. But a few weeks later the fact that COVID is so bad made FED QE like the end of the world, so continued COVID cases make it bullish for the market because FED has the political cover to do more QE without being criticized.

At the end of August, I was expecting sharp drop in COVID cases, which would be bearish for the market again because FED will no longer have the political cover for QE. But 3 weeks ago it seems like cases are not dropping as fast as I expected, so I am bullish again.

Without QE, it is like a plant that can grow steadily and slowly in soil, but with QE, no matter how healthy a plant is, the moment it is turned off, it is like a hydroponic plant, which will start to have problems in hours, not weeks.

 

[cobafdek]

Uh oh, anti-Trumpers:

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-who-idUKKBN26U1ZW

 

Trump wins.

[John Hjorth]

Uh oh, anti-Trumpers:

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-who-idUKKBN26U1ZW

 

Trump wins.

 

Thank you for your post & link, cobafdek,

 

However, the content of the link is not in any way Trump-related.

[Spekulatius]

Excellent article in the Atlantic about COVID-19 R0 dispersion, superspreaders and infection clusters. For one thing, it looks like Sweden actually had a strategy to target clusters much more effectively than others. Same with Japan:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

[Cigarbutt]

Uh oh, anti-Trumpers:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-who-idUKKBN26U1ZW

Trump wins.

Thank you for your post & link, cobafdek,

However, the content of the link is not in any way Trump-related.

But there is a link, at least from a certain perspective. The residual question is if the attempt at disinformation is intentional or not.

-----

When being part of debating societies, one of the mentors used to describe the logos (appeal to reason, careful with fallacies), ethos (appeal to character and credibility, in large part based on respect for the opposing view(s)) and pathos (appeal to emotions, positive and negative).

The emphasis should be on logos and ethos/pathos should only be used as adjuncts. However some try to get away (and sometimes “succeed” doing so) by only using emotions. And of course using only negative emotions is pathological.

-----

The WHO, impersonated by Mr. Ryan, suggested, way back, that lockdowns should be used as an opportunity to control and suppress the virus.

From last March, six key actions were recommended:

1- expand, train and deploy your healthcare and public health workforce.

2- implement a system to find every suspected case at community level.

3- ramp up production capacity and availability of testing.

4- identify, adapt and equip facilities you will use to treat and isolate patients.

5- develop a clear plan and process to quarantine contacts.

6- refocus the whole of government on suppressing and controlling COVID-19.

Of course, this was suggested to build a solid framework so that, when restrictions are lifted, the virus doesn't resurge or at least the virus resurges to reasonably manageable levels, adjusted for different country circumstances. The fundamental substance behind the message was (and still is) that not dealing appropriately with a problem during lockdowns invariably puts at risk a country for further punishing lockdowns, either spontaneous at the individual level or government-imposed.

Nobody here is interested in the following but the interferon system within the immunity of individuals shares the same characteristic (inability to deal with the disease acutely can end up in a cytokine storm; it is basically a failure of the body’s governance system) and I would venture to say that quantitative easing also follows the same pattern. But that’s a story for another day.

 

[Viking]

Excellent article in the Atlantic about COVID-19 R0 dispersion, superspreaders and infection clusters. For one thing, it looks like Sweden actually had a strategy to target clusters much more effectively than others. Same with Japan:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

 

Great article. Thanks for posting. Offers an explanation for why we saw / are seeing such different results in different countries. As we better understand the science and governments implement the learnings we are seeing fewer severe scenarios happen. Very encouraging.

 

————————

Oshitani told me that in Japan, they had noticed the overdispersion characteristics of COVID-19 as early as February, and thus created a strategy focusing mostly on cluster-busting, which tries to prevent one cluster from igniting another. Oshitani said he believes that “the chain of transmission cannot be sustained without a chain of clusters or a megacluster.” Japan thus carried out a cluster-busting approach, including undertaking aggressive backward tracing to uncover clusters. Japan also focused on ventilation, counseling its population to avoid places where the three C’s come together—crowds in closed spaces in close contact, especially if there’s talking or singing—bringing together the science of overdispersion with the recognition of airborne aerosol transmission, as well as presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission.

 

Oshitani contrasts the Japanese strategy, nailing almost every important feature of the pandemic early on, with the Western response, trying to eliminate the disease “one by one” when that’s not necessarily the main way it spreads. Indeed, Japan got its cases down, but kept up its vigilance: When the government started noticing an uptick in community cases, it initiated a state of emergency in April and tried hard to incentivize the kinds of businesses that could lead to super-spreading events, such as theaters, music venues, and sports stadiums, to close down temporarily. Now schools are back in session in person, and even stadiums are open—but without chanting.

 

It’s not always the restrictiveness of the rules, but whether they target the right dangers. As Morris put it, “Japan’s commitment to ‘cluster-busting’ allowed it to achieve impressive mitigation with judiciously chosen restrictions. Countries that have ignored super-spreading have risked getting the worst of both worlds: burdensome restrictions that fail to achieve substantial mitigation. The U.K.’s recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars to remain open is just one of many such examples.”

 

Could we get back to a much more normal life by focusing on limiting the conditions for super-spreading events, aggressively engaging in cluster-busting, and deploying cheap, rapid mass tests—that is, once we get our case numbers down to low enough numbers to carry out such a strategy? (Many places with low community transmission could start immediately.) Once we look for and see the forest, it becomes easier to find our way out.

[orthopa]

A 76 year old ill patient with 2.6 comorbidities who's life expectancy is months or the 25 year old that just drops dead.

 

A question to orthopa (really anyone willing to take a crack at it):

 

If the vast majority of excess deaths would have occurred over the next coming months ("life expectance is months"), then why has there been no observed trend of "under-mortality" to the tune of 100k+ in the 6-7 months past the initial spike?

 

Or to borrow Cigarbutt's wording of the same sentiment:

 

Taking the NYC excess mortality data for example, even forgetting the cause (direct, indirect, marginal or even lockdown related) of deaths for analytic purposes (life expectancy lost because of whatever happened during the excess mortality period), if the life expectancy of all those who died was a few days, weeks or months, how is it mathematically or logically possible that excess mortality has not reversed in the negative direction now that reported Covid deaths have gone down to very low levels (close to zero) for months?

 

Thats a good question and certainly up for debate. My one thought would be to compare 2021 excess deaths to 2020. "wait 2 more weeks" Granted that does not directly compare to the months to live notion (maybe that had 11 months to live and not 3?) but would give some time to allow additional people to near similar health states as the population ages. Looking at the CDC excess death data by age it looks like the 45-64 age group has crossed below with both 65-74 and 75-84 groups trending down excess death levels of 2015-2019.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

I dont think anyone can argue with the fact there has been excess deaths. There certainly is room for argument as to whether or not the measures that continue to be in place and the money/time/energy being spent as a result are necessary for this disease as more information become available over time. Mainly from my point of view those dying and their condition up to the time of death.

 

[Cigarbutt]

^This will become clearer over time but the data essentially rules out that the typical population who died was the medically destitute that you described.

Look also at the Europe data and focus on countries which have been reporting low Covid death rates for a few months (by country, age group etc).

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

So far, the incredibly high positive peaks have not been followed (or even partly matched) by lower than average death rates.

So far, the data suggests that the average or median period of life lost is many years and may match the 10 to 14 avg years lost derived from other data (use age of death vs expectancy, adjusted for risk factors). i submit that this also fits anecdotally with my local and regional knowledge. For folks 'admitted' to nursing homes, there are two populations, one with limited life expectancy but the other with much longer life expectancy. Also, there is a lot of people in the community who are older and who have several risk factors but who still have many years of quality life left. An interesting feature is that the 'secondary' deaths (from the virus and/or the lockdowns; that's another discussion) (ie deaths from people foregoing care, having no access to care, late heart attacks, strokes, late cancer screening and delayed treatments, suicides, despair due to job loss economic hardship etc) should occur over a period of many months and this excess mortality is not showing up in numbers once the direct Covid death rates went down. i'm not saying those numbers don't exist, i'm only suggesting that they account for only a tiny fraction of direct Covid-related deaths.

 

A potential misconception may lie in the fact that people assume that life expectancy in general is around 80 for the population, which is true from a specific point of view. However, somebody in the US or similar reaching age 80 have, on average, about 9 years left. Those who reach 70, about 15. People who reach 70 or 80, almost by definition, have co-morbidities. Of course, quality of life left is different from years left but that's also a different discussion.

 

For those who suggest that this amount of years lost (older people closer to death anyways) is not significant, please send the memo to health authorities since most of healthcare dollars are spent in that category. 'We' have become quite good at adapting to chronic conditions (perhaps less good at more cost-effective treatments more upstream) and have become quite poor at quality of life cost allocation near the end. Covid deaths happen to concentrate in certain categories who only partially chose to be in those categories and the 'social contract' at this point (in the US think Medicare and Social Security and elsewhere) does not, fundamentally, include restrictions based on age and risk factors.

 

I agree with the importance of cost-effective responses and that's why i had reservations when schools closed and why i'm in favor of maintaining school presence for children even if there appears to be a price to pay, at least in my jurisdiction, in terms of virus resurgence and eventually years lost for some.

 

 

[Investor20]

Excellent article in the Atlantic about COVID-19 R0 dispersion, superspreaders and infection clusters. For one thing, it looks like Sweden actually had a strategy to target clusters much more effectively than others. Same with Japan:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

 

Unfortunately CDC or WHO do not agree with this airborne transmission leading to clusters. After several changes in their guidances as described in below article

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/10/05/covid-cdc-updates-guidelines-include-airborne-transmission/3627932001/

CDC updates guidelines (again) to note risk of airborne transmission, says coronavirus can infect people more than 6 feet away

 

The present scientific brief of CDC says "The epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 indicates that most infections are spread through close contact, not airborne transmission"

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/scientific-brief-sars-cov-2.html

 

That is their guidelines are still focused on larger droplets and physical touch both dont lead to one person infecting many at a time, unlike airborne transmission one person can infect dozens at a time.

 

It is really puzzling after many super spreader events indoors such as Patent 31  in church described in the Atlantic article,  why they still think on these lines.

[Liberty]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/coronavirus-healthy-young-people-might-not-be-able-to-get-the-vaccine-until-2022-who-says.html

[Investor20]

Finally randomised clinical trial of Ivermectin+ vs placebo

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT04523831

 

Of 556 patients who screened and were assessed for eligibility, 400 underwent randomization. Total 200 patients received active drug and 200 patient received placebo.

Masking: Double (Participant, Investigator);

 

Details of results including time to recover, severity of symptoms, side effects & all cause mortality are given in the link.

 

This website is lot more readable on PC than on mobile phone.

 

 

[orthopa]

Something does not add up here.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53934952

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-30/france-tightens-mask-protocols-after-surge-in-virus-infections

 

Mask mandates go into effect end of august and 6 weeks later France has a state of health emergency. Is 6 weeks not long enough and now we have to wait 2 more weeks for the masks to start working?

 

https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/14/france-will-reimpose-a-coronavirus-related-state-of-health-emergency-from-october-17

 

 

...and so much for that testing and tracing stuff.

 

https://www.mediapart.fr/en/journal/france/200920/how-frances-covid-test-and-trace-strategy-became-overwhelmed

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/13/uks-test-and-trace-having-marginal-impact-which-countries-got-it-right

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/23/glitches-dent-german-enthusiasm-for-covid-contact-tracing-app

 

 

 

We thought only the US couldn't get its act together with testing!! Who on the board wanted all this testing again? Clearly its working well in Europe.

 

 

Uh oh. Canada is no bueno.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/who-warns-canada-is-facing-a-second-wave-of-coronavirus-cases-.html

 

"The government warned Ontario could experience “worst-case scenarios seen in northern Italy and New York City” if trends continue, Reuters reported Friday."

 

So seeing that France instituted some mask mandates and had a test and trace program in place (that is failing) what exactly is it again that the US should be doing different? Trump took it on chin on good old cornerofberkshire&fairfax.  All we heard all summer was how the US was a covid shithole from our European and Canadian brethren .

 

....and now the thread is quiet.

 

 

[Cardboard]

Then look at Sweden Orthopa.

 

All you have heard on this board on U.S. and Covid are loud mouth Trump haters.

 

Also the same ones who say to listen to scientists like WHO who are doing fuck all to prevent and act more like news anchors.

 

Then same scientists who said masks were no good then now great.

 

Common sense is absent out here.

 

 

[orthopa]

We need more twitter links on the contact radius and size in um of corona fart particles and whether not our 880 thread count bed sheets can act as an effective mask. That will get us back on track real quick.

[cwericb]

Are we not simply seeing the expected Second Wave repeating the path of the first wave as it progresses from east to west, through Europe towards North America as we move from summer into winter?

 

The only good news I see here is that it seems we have been able to treat the victims more effectively thus reducing the death rate.

[Gregmal]

Are we not simply seeing the expected Second Wave repeating the path of the first wave as it progresses from east to west, through Europe towards North America as we move from summer into winter?

 

The only good news I see here is that it seems we have been able to treat the victims more effectively thus reducing the death rate.

 

Who cares? At this point the virus isn't at all what everyone made it out to be and that is clear. If I read another story about "event cancelled because of covid" or "2nd wave, lets shut down" I think Ill just go "all cash" like many of "the experts" here did in March.

 

Its preposterous what MSM and hysterics can do. This entire thing is summed up nicely by the ESPN article on FL and AL situations. Florida game delayed because of covid! is the headline. Bottom of the paragraph...all 15 who tested positive are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. Then "Nick Saban positive for COVID"...bottom of the article, Saban is asymptomatic and while quarantining, basically running practice from Zoom! Yea, another 68 year old who's gonna die.

 

Everything about this, at this point, is "the flu". Perhaps MSM can start a "flu tracker" this year to give people something to do when they arent obsessing over covid. Everyone says" oh but 200k deaths!"...well, we shouldn't have been seeing 8% death rates, but you know.... Just the other day Cuomo was at his podium now claiming hospitals "were nowhere near capacity and had plenty of room back in April"...you cant make this stuff up.

[KCLarkin]

We thought only the US couldn't get its act together with testing!! Who on the board wanted all this testing again? Clearly its working well in Europe.

 

With a couple minor exceptions, the places hit badly in the first wave are getting hit badly in the second wave. Comparing the U.S. only to the D/F students might be good PR, but it is a horrible way to manage a pandemic.

 

And to the MAGA-trolls, this has nothing to do with Him. We do it in Canada too. Quebec has done a horrible job throughout the pandemic (F grade). But the Ontario premier is getting his advice from Quebec rather than any of several provinces that are getting A or B grades.

 

If you actually cared about managing this epidemic, you'd be looking at Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, NZ, Australia, Taiwan, China, eastern Canada, Singapore, Thailand. Oddly, this is the same list from the start