Coronavirus

[KCLarkin]

....and now the thread is quiet.

 

The thread is quiet because whenever someone tries to have an intelligent conversation, the MAGA-trolls post gibberish and nonsense to try to drown out any rational thought.

[Gregmal]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

[clutch]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

 

I agree. Whenever I tried to refute some of the pro-lockdown, anti-Sweden claims back in March/April, I was labelled as a Trump supporter by such COVID experts. I really don't care for Trump, but I just liked to call out some of the BS shared here.

 

And now that I've critized all the US bashing by Canadians (as a Canadian myself), I'm now labelled as a MAGA troll...  ::)

[DocSnowball]

Are we not simply seeing the expected Second Wave repeating the path of the first wave as it progresses from east to west, through Europe towards North America as we move from summer into winter?

 

The only good news I see here is that it seems we have been able to treat the victims more effectively thus reducing the death rate.

 

Who cares? At this point the virus isn't at all what everyone made it out to be and that is clear. If I read another story about "event cancelled because of covid" or "2nd wave, lets shut down" I think Ill just go "all cash" like many of "the experts" here did in March.

 

Its preposterous what MSM and hysterics can do. This entire thing is summed up nicely by the ESPN article on FL and AL situations. Florida game delayed because of covid! is the headline. Bottom of the paragraph...all 15 who tested positive are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. Then "Nick Saban positive for COVID"...bottom of the article, Saban is asymptomatic and while quarantining, basically running practice from Zoom! Yea, another 68 year old who's gonna die.

 

Everything about this, at this point, is "the flu". Perhaps MSM can start a "flu tracker" this year to give people something to do when they arent obsessing over covid. Everyone says" oh but 200k deaths!"...well, we shouldn't have been seeing 8% death rates, but you know.... Just the other day Cuomo was at his podium now claiming hospitals "were nowhere near capacity and had plenty of room back in April"...you cant make this stuff up.

 

I'll go ahead and agree that this is the perception of a sizable proportion of people and decision makers. There may be little to change that perception apart from there being so many cases that mortalities go up above spring highs and/or hospitals are overwhelmed. The question I'd ask you is what data or events will it take to change that opinion, if any? For me, if there are lower mortalities and serious hospitalizations through the winter, no matter how it happens, I'll be happy to change my opinion.

 

My take on it is that is part of what is enabling the virus to continue to spread leaving the US in a precarious position going into winter, along with lack of a national strategy. And once enough seeds of "spreaders" are sown it is too late to stop the wave from becoming overwhelming. What worked in the summer isn't working in a lot of countries despite all the precautions being taken by so many. There is an overwhelming force of the virus transmitting successfully under certain conditions (indoors, colder weather, close gatherings, etc). In the spring, the playbook was set by China by wide shutdowns, with Europe and some US states following. This time it may be Europe and some predominantly Democrat-run states scripting how we will respond. Time will tell.

[Gregmal]

Are we not simply seeing the expected Second Wave repeating the path of the first wave as it progresses from east to west, through Europe towards North America as we move from summer into winter?

 

The only good news I see here is that it seems we have been able to treat the victims more effectively thus reducing the death rate.

 

Who cares? At this point the virus isn't at all what everyone made it out to be and that is clear. If I read another story about "event cancelled because of covid" or "2nd wave, lets shut down" I think Ill just go "all cash" like many of "the experts" here did in March.

 

Its preposterous what MSM and hysterics can do. This entire thing is summed up nicely by the ESPN article on FL and AL situations. Florida game delayed because of covid! is the headline. Bottom of the paragraph...all 15 who tested positive are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. Then "Nick Saban positive for COVID"...bottom of the article, Saban is asymptomatic and while quarantining, basically running practice from Zoom! Yea, another 68 year old who's gonna die.

 

Everything about this, at this point, is "the flu". Perhaps MSM can start a "flu tracker" this year to give people something to do when they arent obsessing over covid. Everyone says" oh but 200k deaths!"...well, we shouldn't have been seeing 8% death rates, but you know.... Just the other day Cuomo was at his podium now claiming hospitals "were nowhere near capacity and had plenty of room back in April"...you cant make this stuff up.

 

I'll go ahead and agree that this is the perception of a sizable proportion of people and decision makers. There may be little to change that perception apart from there being so many cases that mortalities go up above spring highs and/or hospitals are overwhelmed. The question I'd ask you is what data or events will it take to change that opinion, if any? For me, if there are lower mortalities and serious hospitalizations through the winter, no matter how it happens, I'll be happy to change my opinion.

 

My take on it is that is part of what is enabling the virus to continue to spread leaving the US in a precarious position going into winter, along with lack of a national strategy. And once enough seeds of "spreaders" are sown it is too late to stop the wave from becoming overwhelming. What worked in the summer isn't working in a lot of countries despite all the precautions being taken by so many. There is an overwhelming force of the virus transmitting successfully under certain conditions (indoors, colder weather, close gatherings, etc). In the spring, the playbook was set by China by wide shutdowns, with Europe and some US states following. This time it may be Europe and some predominantly Democrat-run states scripting how we will respond. Time will tell.

 

I think, like with any illness, it needs to be taken seriously, but the primary driver IMO is making sure the hospitals/health care universe is not overwhelmed and beyond not just its operating capacity, but its capacity with regard to functioning at a high level. Having extra beds but understaffed chaos does no good either. This was the primary point of lockdowns early on...although it is now perplexing, and indicative of a high level, coordinated lie, somewhere, that Cuomo is claiming hospitals where never near capacity. If true this is a major lie and further indicative of a hand waving power grab. The other point, is that part of not overwhelming hospitals, ERs, and urgent cares, is not scaring people into thinking they need to run there at the first sign of seasonal allergies...or, that if you test positive its a death sentence.

 

The more that comes out, the more clear it becomes that the majority of people should just go on living their lives, with a mask. Thats it. And if you get it, not to panic. I said before, the majority of the people I know who have had it, 1) didnt even bother to get tested, 2) have had worse cases of the common cold, 3) got over it on their own. This seems to be whats playing out at many universities...which then begs the questions, if universities can open, why are schools an issue? If schools arent an issue, why cant people go to work? No one ever avoided a restaurant because of the flu. Michael Jordan had one of the most memorable games of his career, supposedly with the flu. Now we're outright cancelling games and banning fans...its insane.

[KCLarkin]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

 

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

[StubbleJumper]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

 

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

 

 

I'd say that you are correct about Feb/March.  The discussions in Feb/March had already frequently become contentious, with a few posters directing personal attacks and insults at others who held different points of view.  At that stage, the personal attacks were usually of the nature of questioning the other person's intelligence or numeracy (ex, person X is too stupid to understand exponential growth).  The reality was that there were intelligent and numerate posters on both sides of most issues, but their views were driven by differing assumptions about a wide variety of known-unknowns.

 

My memory was that the political rancour was a little later in June or July, when most of Europe and Canada had their situation well in hand after a lengthy lock-down, but Sweden and the US had a growing mess on their hands.  At that stage there were frequent posts lamenting the situation in the US and frequent questions about whether America was great yet and #winning was occasionally used.  It was a bizarrely political discourse where every bad outcome was attributed to particular politicians.

 

The venomous political statements related to the covid situation in the US seem to have abated somewhat as numerous countries in Europe have lost control of their situation.

 

 

SJ

[Spekulatius]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

 

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

 

 

I'd say that you are correct about Feb/March.  The discussions in Feb/March had already frequently become contentious, with a few posters directing personal attacks and insults at others who held different points of view.  At that stage, the personal attacks were usually of the nature of questioning the other person's intelligence or numeracy (ex, person X is too stupid to understand exponential growth).  The reality was that there were intelligent and numerate posters on both sides of most issues, but their views were driven by differing assumptions about a wide variety of known-unknowns.

 

My memory was that the political rancour was a little later in June or July, when most of Europe and Canada had their situation well in hand after a lengthy lock-down, but Sweden and the US had a growing mess on their hands.  At that stage there were frequent posts lamenting the situation in the US and frequent questions about whether America was great yet and #winning was occasionally used.  It was a bizarrely political discourse where every bad outcome was attributed to particular politicians.

 

The venomous political statements related to the covid situation in the US seem to have abated somewhat as numerous countries in Europe have lost control of their situation.

 

 

SJ

 

The trends in Europe show how quickly this can run out of control. 40k cases today in France is pretty bad. They have started curfews , but this time, they are more targeted towards hoy spots. I think a total lockdown of the economy is unlikely in Europe as it is in the US.

 

US trends are pretty lousy too - rising cases almost everywhere, but that’s not driving the response - hospitalization is and it’s rising too. These COVID-19 trends have persistence, once they start rising, they keep rising for a while:

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized

 

These hospitalization rates at a local level will drive a response at a local level.

 

We will find out if muscleman herd immunity theory is correct, but I think not. Too many population groups haven’t seen the virus yet. I live in MA ~35 miles out of Boston and no way there is any herd immunity here. Just 10 positive cases in a town of 3300 with no case since May (we have town stats here and testing a availability is pretty good). Other towns around me are similar , but there are also hot spots in between (mostly blue collar communities) with way higher rates too.

 

I expect rising rates and hospitalizations, but hope for the best. Thanksgiving and inevitable travel and family gathering could well ignite another surge. We know from Europe that family events and private meetings/house parties are a major cause of spread and those are hard to control.

 

 

[Cigarbutt]

....and now the thread is quiet.

The thread is quiet because whenever someone tries to have an intelligent conversation, the MAGA-trolls post gibberish and nonsense to try to drown out any rational thought.

Maybe there is a need for a third definition of Coronavirus fatigue. On top of the fatigue that the virus may cause, there's the fatigue resulting from chronic or recurrent social restrictions and there is the fatigue related to attempts to engage in constructive discussions.

[StubbleJumper]

We will find out if muscleman herd immunity theory is correct, but I think not. Too many population groups haven’t seen the virus yet. I live in MA ~35 miles out of Boston and no way there is any herd immunity here. Just 10 positive cases in a town of 3300 with no case since May (we have town stats here and testing a availability is pretty good). Other towns around me are similar , but there are also hot spots in between (mostly blue collar communities) with way higher rates too.

 

I don't want to put words in Muscleman's mouth, but some of us were dreaming that herd immunity might kick in at ~25% of the population with antibodies, but it is pretty clear that was a pipe dream.  As of today, there are 8 million officially diagnosed cases in the United States.  If you believe the dialysis study, the number of people carrying antibodies is about 10-for-1 of the official cases, or perhaps 80 million.  That would be 24 or 25 percent of the US population.  Clearly, we are not anywhere close to herd immunity today.

 

Conventional wisdom is that herd immunity might kick in when ~60% of the population is resistant. So the US might currently be at ~40% of that path?  Ignoring the notion that R0 will gradually tail off as people are infected, another ~12m official cases would be required.  At ~50k new cases per day that would be 8 more months, but the tailing of the R0 would likely extend that for a great deal longer.  So, I will pose the question once more: which will come first in the US, a generally available vaccine, or generalized herd immunity?

 

The trends in Europe show how quickly this can run out of control. 40k cases today in France is pretty bad. They have started curfews , but this time, they are more targeted towards hoy spots. I think a total lockdown of the economy is unlikely in Europe as it is in the US.

 

The numbers in France are astounding.  I don't pay much attention to the day-to-day counts because there is a great deal of daily noise.  But, the 7-day average in France is 20k new cases per day for a population of 67 million people.  Multiply by about 5 to get a number comparable to the US population, and it gives you 100k/day, which is even worse than the worst days that the US experienced in July (the worst day for the US was 76k new cases).  The Netherlands seems to have an even worse mess on its hands than France.

 

I expect rising rates and hospitalizations, but hope for the best. Thanksgiving and inevitable travel and family gathering could well ignite another surge. We know from Europe that family events and private meetings/house parties are a major cause of spread and those are hard to control.

 

I agree fully with your observation about Thanksgiving.  In Canada, we celebrated Thanksgiving last Sunday (we celebrate it earlier than in the US) and we will likely see the covid results of the family get-togethers early next week.  Our second largest province took the extraordinary measure of prohibiting visitors to houses in almost all of the province.  What an extraordinary time it is that a government in a free society would deign to prohibit people from having any visitors at all in their house!  But, they did it, and we might see next week whether it made a difference.  Let us hope that the impingement on personal freedom at least had a useful public health outcome.

 

While Thanksgiving is an important holiday in Canada, it is much, much more important in the US...maybe even more important than Christmas.  It is the biggest travel day of the year.  The first week of December could be interesting....

 

 

SJ

[Cardboard]

Every 100 years or so, some pandemia comes along.

 

Last time we were around 1.8 billion and it killed 3-5%, not infected. Today we are 7.8 billion.

 

To the endless worriers of this thread let me tell you that you are wrong. Some will die from this, with over 90% due to pre-existing conditions based on data and vast majority will make it through.

 

Will I? Cannot tell. I won't try to catch it but, if you think that you will improve overall human condition by prolonging the agony then you are very wrong.

 

Cardboard

[Investor20]

 

CDC is showing drop in new hospitalizations as of October 3, especially the 65+ years which is most important group from vulnerability POV.

 

 

Percent hospital & emergency visits for both Covid like (CLI) & Influenza like (ILI) are down to baseline

 

 

This is a summary of Positivity rate, new hospitalizations, Hospital visits...all down

[cwericb]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

 

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

 

No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject:

 

“Just the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it”

 

“A lot of people say masks are not good, I’ll tell you who those people are, waiters.” 

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any'

 

[Gregmal]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

 

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

 

No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject:

 

“Just the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it”

 

“A lot of people say masks are not good, I’ll tell you who those people are, waiters.” 

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any'

 

When the overwhelming majority of people who test positive dont even know they have it or experience symptoms in line with seasonal allergies....then yea, it gets to a point where creating boogeymen isn't really productive. Especially when all those nothing burgers get translated into "OMG look at all the people testing positive!" across newsfeeds everywhere. A lot of people had breakfast this morning. Some didnt. Some might have choked on their food and experienced discomfort....But we dont attach negative superpowers to breakfast, nor do many people scream "AGH!" when they hear/see the word.

[Investor20]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

 

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

 

No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject:

 

“Just the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it”

“A lot of people say masks are not good, I’ll tell you who those people are, waiters.” 

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any'

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

 

Please check page 1261 - table at top of page  for

 

"Reported use of cloth face covering or mask 14 days before illness onset"

 

Mask use for Covid Positive group:      Often: 14.4%; Always 70.6%  (Total of Often + Always use of mask 85%)

Mask use for control (negative) group: Often: 14.5%; Always 74.2%  (Total of Often + Always use of mask 88.7%)

 

 

[cwericb]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

 

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

 

No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject:

 

“Just the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it”

“A lot of people say masks are not good, I’ll tell you who those people are, waiters.” 

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any'

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

 

Please check page 1261 - table at top of page  for

 

"Reported use of cloth face covering or mask 14 days before illness onset"

 

Mask use for Covid Positive group:      Often: 14.4%; Always 70.6%  (Total of Often + Always use of mask 85%)

Mask use for control (negative) group: Often: 14.5%; Always 74.2%  (Total of Often + Always use of mask 88.7%)

 

I know what the numbers were for a tiny study of 150 people.

 

But that study does not indicate that "that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it" [Covid-19].

[Peregrine]

So across Europe where cases have been rising, positivity rates among the old have remained low whereas those of younger age groups have shot up which in my view shows that the more vulnerable are shielding themselves while the less vulnerable are going back to more normal lives. Despite the vitriolic mainstream reaction to the Great Barrington Declaration, society is more or less going that route anyway.

[muscleman]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

 

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

 

No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject:

 

“Just the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it”

“A lot of people say masks are not good, I’ll tell you who those people are, waiters.” 

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any'

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

 

Please check page 1261 - table at top of page  for

 

"Reported use of cloth face covering or mask 14 days before illness onset"

 

Mask use for Covid Positive group:      Often: 14.4%; Always 70.6%  (Total of Often + Always use of mask 85%)

Mask use for control (negative) group: Often: 14.5%; Always 74.2%  (Total of Often + Always use of mask 88.7%)

 

I know what the numbers were for a tiny study of 150 people.

 

But that study does not indicate that "that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it" [Covid-19].

 

People who wear masks got a large amount of virus on the outside of the mask. When they take it down later, their figures are full of virus. So it wouldn't be surprised that they get infected from that later.

This doesn't mean masks are useless though. It just means that people need to learn how to do it properly.

In case you guys still care about the market instead of just trolling Trump.... I think the fact that COVID cases are going up again is quite bullish for the market, but it is possible to have continued sideways actions for 2 more weeks before I am comfortable raising my exposure from 40% to 90%.

[stahleyp]

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

 

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads.

 

No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject:

 

“Just the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it”

“A lot of people say masks are not good, I’ll tell you who those people are, waiters.” 

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any'

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

 

Please check page 1261 - table at top of page  for

 

"Reported use of cloth face covering or mask 14 days before illness onset"

 

Mask use for Covid Positive group:      Often: 14.4%; Always 70.6%  (Total of Often + Always use of mask 85%)

Mask use for control (negative) group: Often: 14.5%; Always 74.2%  (Total of Often + Always use of mask 88.7%)

 

I know what the numbers were for a tiny study of 150 people.

 

But that study does not indicate that "that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it" [Covid-19].

 

I had assumed he meant that 85% of the people who got covid said they were wearing masks?

[KCLarkin]

Masks are source control.

[Investor20]

Masks are source control.

 

CDC Director Dr. Redfield said

 

"I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against Covid than when I take a Covid vaccine, because the immunogenicity may be 70 percent. And if I don’t get an immune response, the vaccine is not going to protect me. This face mask will. "

 

[KCLarkin]

Masks are source control.

 

CDC Director Dr. Redfield said

 

"I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against Covid than when I take a Covid vaccine, because the immunogenicity may be 70 percent. And if I don’t get an immune response, the vaccine is not going to protect me. This face mask will. "

 

There is evidence that masks offer protection, but they are primarily source control. If you are wearing a mask, even a medical one, you can still get Virus through your eyes or fomites or improper donning/doffing.

 

Redfield’s comment is not inline with CDC guidance, which is mostly directed at source control.

[Gregmal]

More interesting narrative

 

 

Headline:  FLORIDA COACH WHO CALLED TO PACK STADIUM TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID

 

footnote: Mullen, his family, and every UF player whom has tested positive is described as experiencing either "mild, or no symptoms"...carry on!

[clutch]

I'm watching the baseball game and something that really bothers me...

 

Some of the players and coaches are wearing masks in the dugout. Then, they pull down their masks from time to time and SPIT on their dugout ground lol.

 

I know these players are tested every day and they are probably safe to do whatever... but then why wear the masks at all? If you are going to keep pulling them down and spit everywhere? Is it again just a political statement?

[JRM]

I'm watching the baseball game and something that really bothers me...

 

Some of the players and coaches are wearing masks in the dugout. Then, they pull down their masks from time to time and SPIT on their dugout ground lol.

 

I know these players are tested every day and they are probably safe to do whatever... but then why wear the masks at all? If you are going to keep pulling them down and spit everywhere? Is it again just a political statement?

 

I think the mask wearing at baseball and football games is more about signaling than about actually protecting anybody.  Dusty Baker had his mask just covering his nose for the entire post season so he could chew on his tooth pick.